02-07-2019, 02:11 PM
(02-07-2019, 01:31 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: No, the cycle is not out of rhythm, if you repair the anomaly of the civil war saeculum, and restore the 1850s to 4T status. Then, in perfect timing, our early 4T has been just like the 1850s--- compromise fails, polarization rises, government and incompetent presidents fail to act, leading to a civil war.
How warlike the civil war will be in the 2020s remains to be seen. But if the timing continues on target, then circa 2025 should see some sort of break-out, and 2027 some kind of crisis climax. The saeculum will have been 83 years long if the 4T ends in 2028-29, as expected now by Mr. Howe. Since the current saeculum is like the civil war one, there is talk of another anomaly, but there really isn't one.
I agree, with the added caveat that the rate of societal change is now so high that revolutionary breaks with the past are almost immediately mundane or overcome by yet another change in society. Most of the societal change is powered by out of control technology, with little reason to believe tech will be restrained any time soon. Now, add AGW to the mix, and good luck to all you younger folk.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.