02-07-2019, 02:18 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-07-2019, 02:18 PM by Eric the Green.)
(02-07-2019, 02:11 PM)David Horn Wrote:(02-07-2019, 01:31 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: No, the cycle is not out of rhythm, if you repair the anomaly of the civil war saeculum, and restore the 1850s to 4T status. Then, in perfect timing, our early 4T has been just like the 1850s--- compromise fails, polarization rises, government and incompetent presidents fail to act, leading to a civil war.
How warlike the civil war will be in the 2020s remains to be seen. But if the timing continues on target, then circa 2025 should see some sort of break-out, and 2027 some kind of crisis climax. The saeculum will have been 83 years long if the 4T ends in 2028-29, as expected now by Mr. Howe. Since the current saeculum is like the civil war one, there is talk of another anomaly, but there really isn't one.
I agree, with the added caveat that the rate of societal change is now so high that revolutionary breaks with the past are almost immediately mundane or overcome by yet another change in society. Most of the societal change is powered by out of control technology, with little reason to believe tech will be restrained any time soon. Now, add AGW to the mix, and good luck to all you younger folk.
There is a lot of tech change, with positive and negative effects hard to calculate, and not well controlled if at all. But tech leaves a lot out as far as social change is concerned, and we have seen very little change over the last 40 years in our politics and economic relationships or our care for the environment, unless it has been to regress backward. What we have largely seen is stagnation, and this was similar to the early to mid-19th century in many ways, in the USA and in Europe too; also even in spite of increasing industrialism. But something will break through soon. A rev up of society is around the corner in the next decade.