Current anomaly: Five generations alive!

[David Horn]

(03-24-2019, 08:03 AM)Mikebert Wrote:

(03-22-2019, 04:36 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: Again, I think you are being too impatient. We should not have expected an FDR in the 2010s; only politicians like those in the 1850s. Pierce is even a Bush ancestor, if I remember correctly. It still feels like the 3T, just as the 1850s did. But the crisis is ongoing anyway, and will climax on schedule. 

Obama tried to shift away from the Reagan policies, but the nation is too divided for that to stick. The division continued and gave us the Tea Party and Trump. Our crisis is really not economic, primarily, but political polarization. That is the real nature of this 4T, in a double rhythm with the 1850-1865 crisis.

But you may be too optimistic. A 2008 start can only hold if things happen fast. In 2016 I had thought we would already be in recession by now, with a second financial panic happening in the first half of this year, with unemployment peaking in late 2020. In this case, whichever party won in 2016 would get slaughtered in 2018 and 2020. In this scenario, the 4T structural changes would be implemented during the 2020's and the 4T would finish up in the late 2020's or early 2030's, in line with a 2008 start.

Well the recession has been delayed. I don't think the business cycle has been repealed, we are still going to get a recession and it will almost certainly be serious because asset prices are so extreme. But now it looks like whichever party wins in 2020 will get slaughtered.

If this is the Dems (which I believe is what you forecasted years ago), then the GOP will probably gain control of the House, a filibuster-proof Senate and the presidency in 2024.  This means 8 years of GOP rule. We know what that looks like.  Tax cuts and conservative judges.  In other words 2020-2032 will look a lot like 2000-2020. In this scenario, if anything like 4T restructuring is to happen, it would have to be after 2032. This makes the 2008 start completely untenable.

If recession has not yet gotten underway and the GOP wins narrowly in 2020, then Dems stand to win big in 2022 and 2024. In this case, it is *possible* that 4T restructuring could be implemented over the next 8 years, in which case a 2008-2032 4T would make sense.

But for the GOP to win in 2020, it would mean the expansion is still ongoing. In July of this year the expansion will reach 121 months, and surpass the previous record of 120 months. The longer the expansion continues the greater the departure from the past. Already asset valuations have reached a new plane of existence. It is possible that our political and economic system is undergoing a phase transition to a new reality that is a complete break with the past. A world in which voodoo (economics) becomes real and "when we act...we create our own reality"[Karl Rove]. This is the world of neocon reality, Stephen Moore (Trump's Fed nomination) and Kevin Hassett (Trump econ advisor and Dow 36K author).

Maybe this phase transition would be the 4T structural change, which would support a 2001 date for the 4T start. In this case Republicans would win in 2020 and again in 2024 and again....it would be like the post- Civil War era. In 20 years we would be in the world of Ready Player One.

Personally, I'm going with a failed 4T scenario.  Yes, we'll have a recession at some point, though how deep and how long is still and open question.  This time, large tax increases and more public non-defense spending will have to be part of the solution, or things will just deteriorate, stagnate and become the photo-opposite of stagflation.  I doubt either party benefits if that occurs, so it's either the radical Dems or nothing.  Judging by the faith in institutions that has been systematically degraded by the FoX hounds and others, 'nothing' seems more likely.  That will mark the end of the American Century.  Whether China picks up the ball, and what game it plays, will determine the future from that point.

We're at a very perilous point.  There aren't many with real vision on what to do next, and none of them seems poised to bump-Trump in 2020 -- at least so far.  The most rational and visionary of the lot is Pete Buttigieg, and he's a long shot at best.