01-14-2020, 02:10 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-14-2020, 02:13 AM by Eric the Green.)
(08-14-2019, 10:54 PM)Ghost Wrote:(08-12-2019, 06:48 AM)Anthony Wrote:(08-11-2019, 10:54 AM)Ghost Wrote:(08-11-2019, 09:12 AM)Anthony Wrote: No way was 2008 the start of any Crisis. Unemployment only got up to 10.2% (in October 2019) - while in November and December of 1982 it reached 10.8%.
Yet 9/11 never really changed anything: Not only didn't the Culture Wars not diffuse, they actually intensified - Lawrence v. Texas, 2003, Obergefell v. Hodges, 2015, Masterpiece Cakeshop v. Colorado Civil Rights Commission, 2018.
So what I have chosen to do is to do something unique and declare 9/11 a "half-catalyst" that moved us into a place between a 3T and 4T - where we will remain until the 2020 election, when a Super Civil War Anomaly (and a Second Civil War itself) will break out.
What do you think are the "bridge zones" between the turnings? In my opinion, they go like this:
4T to 1T: 1942-1945 (starts with Stalingrad and ends with the end of WWII)
1T to 2T: 1960-1965 (starts with the introduction of the birth control pill and ends with the start of America's involvement in Vietnam)
2T to 3T: 1978-1984 (starts with Carter's popularity slightly slipping and ends with Reagan's 1984 landslide victory)
3T to 4T: 2001-2008 (starts with 9/11 and ends with the 2008 financial crisis)
One common trend I seem to notice is that over time, bridge zones between "turning periods" keep getting bigger.
Bridge between 4T and 1T is 3 years long.
Bridge between 1T and 2T is 5 years long.
Bridge between 2T and 3T is 6 years long.
Bridge between 3T and 4T is 7 years long.
I really do not know if 2T/3T bridge is correct and if it isn't, please let me know.
9/11 is still at the early end of your "bridge" range - but as I have stated previously, 9/11 caused a Civil War anomaly in reverse, since it did not unite the country the way Pearl Harbor did; indeed, the Culture Wars have not only raged on, but have become more violent - with the worst very likely to come, in Portland this coming Saturday.
As for the 2T/3T thing, the inauguration of Ronald Reagan and the concomitant release of the hostages from Iran works perfectly. Take it from a dude who was there, and who saw the two events on split screen, as they happened, tying them up into a neat little red-white-and-blue bow - and putting me on the young side of a very real generational divide (up to that point I had always believed that "hippie" was short for "hypocrite" and that "New Age" rhymed with "sewage").
Some don't even have "bridge ranges" at all. What are your thoughts on people who say that 9/11 was the start of 4T? In a way, I can see it because of how it "made America lose its innocence" and changed the American way of life completely.
No, after 9-11 Americans continued on as before. The nation was NOT called to battle as in 4T wars. Bush thought he could win his first war by bombing alone, and then started another unnecessary war that divided the country. 3T politics was enshrined again under Bush, and deregulated businessmen and real estate salesmen speculated like there was no tomorrow, just like the speculators of the 1920s. Just like in the 1920s, sex became the primary content of pop culture. Innocence continued, and so did the culture wars, the very name and identity of the 3T, which dominated the 2004 election in which conservatives rallied to victory by denouncing Monica Lewinsky and Jane Fonda and opposing abortion and gay marriage. Nothing in the American way of life changed at all after 9-11. A few people imprisoned by the Patriot Act and some spying on phone calls do not a change of life make. The war on terror was just the MIC behaving as usual during this saeculum. 9-11 was a war and an attack on America that I predicted, and I predicted that 2008 would see an economic crash that would usher in the 4T. And so it was, just as I predicted. No Generation Z member exists that was born before 2003.