Trump Trainwreck - Ongoing diary of betrayal and evil

[pbrower2a]

In fact, bobc -- this is how America sees President Trump. I am looking more at disapproval than approval. Disapproval implies that pe3eople are giving up on him.


Cook PVI ratings:

Color and intensity will indicate the variance from a tie (ties will be in white) with  in a 50-50 election with blue for an R lean and red for a D lean. Numbers will be shown except in individual districts

int      var
2        1-4%
3        5-8%
5        9-12%
7        13-19%
9        20% or more







DC -- way out of reach for any Republican.

ME-01 D+8
ME-02 R+2

NE-01 R+11
NE-02 R+4
NE-03 R+27

(data from Wikipedia, map mine)

...Cook PVI estimates how states would vote i n a binary 50-50 election, a natiionwide tie, based upon how states voted for the Presidency in 2012 and 2016  as a predictor of 2020. This i s the best baseline that I can think of. It may not be perfect, but it is objective.

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Here  is the Gallup data for 2017. Figuring that this is an average from early February to late December, I will have to assume an average date of July 15 or so for the polling data. This is now rather old data, and in some cases obsolete. For example, I see Trump support cratering in the Mountain and Deep South. the Mountain South and Deep South are going back to a populist phase (the South has typically oscillated between the  two) or whether The Donald is beginning to appear as a bad match for either part of the South.  This data (or later polling) is not  intended to show anything other than how support appears at some time or at an average of times. As a general rule, new polling supplants even better old  polling.

So here  is the Gallup polling with a number  of 100-DIS reflecting what I consider the ceiling for Donald Trump. This is lenient to the extent that I assume that he can pick up most undecided voters but recognizes that undoing disapproval at any stage requires miracles. By definition, miracles are unpredictable.

 Gallup data from all polls in 2017 (average assumed  in mid-July):



*Approval lower than disapproval in this state

for barely-legible numbers for DC and some states -- CT 37 DC 11 DE 42 HI 40 MD 35 RI 38

Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.

This  is good data, but the average age  of the data is from late July, so it is more than six months  old now.

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This is polling from October or later, and I will be adding a poll of Florida from October because it is newer than the Gallup polling data.

 I use 100-DIS as a reasonable ceiling for the Trump vote in 2020. Thus:




Lightest shades are for a raw total of votes that allows for a win with a margin of 5% or less; middle shades are for totals with allow for wins with 6 to 10% margins; deepest shades are for vote percentages that allow wins of 10% or more. Numbers are for the projected vote for Trump.

Note -- if Trump is underwater (more disapproval than approval) in the polling, then the results come out in pink.  

Note: this  includes many different  polls from different sources.

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Variation from PVI (polls from October 2017 and later):



At this  point it is easy to note that the 2020 election so far projects to not be a 50-50 split of the vote. To be sure, the President's biggest losses of support seem to be coming  in states in which he had a huge cushion in 2016... but current polling shows the President losing three  of his five closest wins and eight of his ten closest wins of 2016. The others? I do not have recent polls of Arizona, Maine, Nevada, or Pennsylvania