The Coronavirus

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-13-2020, 10:37 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(04-13-2020, 10:03 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: So who said that a Crisis had to be a war?

John Xenakis is the primary exponent of the crisis war, and a firm believer in the necessity of them.  In fact, he hangs generational dynamics on that premise.

Where I would say nukes make the Crisis war obsolete.  While in the Industrial Age leaders and elites would start a war trivially, in this time the elites would lose influence and status, and make sure the leaders don’t threaten their position.  In the Information Age, the Crisis war is virtually obsolete.  That was why I was trying to rework the S&H theory to figure out how the cycles world work without a Trigger or a Regeneracy.  Would the Awakening become the turning with the radical change?  Can one change through democracy rather than conflict?  Should we look to the Conscious Revolution as the only Awakening that gives us an example of how it works in the Information Age?

But then along came the Coronavirus…  I would not guarantee that a Trigger will happen in every period that the Prophet - Nomad - Civic generational alignment occurs.  This time, if you consider September 11th, we had two such Tiggers.  The first failed to change the culture.  The second?  It seems too early to tell for certain.  Will the old patriotic swing from selfishness to loyalty to the country still happen without a war to compel the change?  That does not guarantee we will get even one Trigger next time around.