(04-29-2020, 03:34 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:(04-29-2020, 02:42 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: What is he lying about? You seem to be going overboard with the lying accusations lately. Have you no integrity at all? You seem to be lacking in integrity to me. You don't think liberals are capable of lying and making shit up these days. If you don't then you're not paying close enough attention to them these days. You should because you are most likely going to be stuck with them and reliant upon as we're riding out a rather rough and bumpy 4t. I'd say that if you have some health issue that places you at higher risk of being severely impacted or killed by COVID19 then its wise for you to wear a mask and go to more extreme measures to protect yourself from getting it.
I guess that requires a long answer. The following reviews my view of the crisis, and should not surprise those who have been following the coastal media in general or Rachel Maddow in particular.
One of the numbers originally thrown about in the early days of CORVUS 19 was how many people were infected on average by an infected person. If that number was above one, you got exponential growth. The larger the number, the more rapid the growth, the faster you overloaded the health system. Contrarily, if you lower the infection rate, if you created circumstances by which the number was less than one, you got exponential decay. The number of infected people would go down.
These days, as the modeling becomes more complex, that number is recognized as being fluid. Population dense areas have higher numbers, more infections, all other things being equal. Isolation also matters. The more precautions you take to isolate people, the lower that number becomes.
Except in places such as giant metropolitan areas where people will be crowded together in streets an mass transit (especially Manhattan) in which a reduction in crowding is nearly impossible other than in stay-at-home orders, local crowding matters far more. Thus an offshore oil rig could be very crowded despite being 100 miles from the nearest rig or populated shoreline. A nursing home or a prison in an area that is otherwise full of extensive ranches could easily be a hotbed for an infectious disease. Public schools had to be closed, as did churches, casual-dining restaurants, museums, theaters, concert halls, libraries, bookstores, banks, beaches, and hair salons. It is arguable that one reason for the closing of so many places is that if there is no place worthy of going then people won't go anywhere. If there is a Wal*Mart in my community, then I have no reason to go to another Wal*Mart fifty miles away. If I can't visit such a place as the Art Institute of Chicago or the Museum of Natural History... or listen to the Chicago Symphony, then why should I make the pointless day-trip to Chicago?
Quote:What Warren claims is that by changing the name of the legal isolation order, you change whether or not you isolate. That is not true. I don’t care what name you write on the executive order, so long as you isolate. Surely, the bug doesn’t care about the name either. What is important is that you have isolated, the only tool we currently have to deliberately reduce the infection rate. (Well, they just approved a therapy drug for emergency use. It was the only tool this morning.)
Social shaming may be more effective than roadblocks at the state lines. Sure, I live near a state line, and I know the back roads enough that if I had to cross over into the next state or wanted to do so I could resort to unpaved roads if necessary. This said, I haven't done so even if I could over the last three weeks. What can I now do in Indiana or Ohio that I cannot do in Michigan? Apparently, nothing. Indiana and Ohio seem to be shut down just as much as Michigan.
Quote:Obviously, the sooner you implement isolation, the sooner the infection rate goes below one, the fewer infections. The better the isolation, the less you have scofflaws working selfishly around it, the faster the isolation will have an effect. There are no doubt other factors, but both reduce the area under the curve. Isolate early and more completely.
Human nature as it is, the sooner that the isolation is imposed, and the more rigidly it is imposed, the more likely it is that when people start getting the irresistible urge to go to the boat launch, the hiking trail, the golf course, or the beach that the transmission of COVID-19 will stall. Nothing can so keep people at home as the absence of places to which to go. We will need breaks from the isolation because we as people like communicating, we want to date if we are not married, we have curiosity, and we are materialistic. But if we are able to shelter in place, maybe more of those things that we have overpowering urges to do because they are inherent in human nature will be available -- faster.
Quote:While the population density is a factor, if you are a prison inmate, an elderly resident of a long term care facility, a meat processor, or anything like that, the average density of your state matters less than the density of your common environment. While rural states might be able to count on their low population density to achieve what is effectively isolation, these areas are apt to generate local hot spots around places like prisons, nursing homes and meat processing plants. Those that work at such facilities go home to their families, spreading the effect of the hot spot into the community.
Precisely. It has been my habit to salute American veterans for their service -- but I just recently saluted a prison guard for such. I know exactly what "Corrections" means. I have also been thanking peopole for wearing masks and telling people to get or make them while in stores. Yes, I wear one.
I went to a drive-in today and ordered an ice-cream cone, and and wore my mask while giving the order and receiving it. I closed my window while I ate the cone. I suppose that such is safe contact...
Quote:If we had available testing, we could afford this. We could relax the isolation, allow the infection rate to go above one on average, and test and react to reimpose stricter isolation as hot spots develop. As yet, this is only a dream. There are not enough tests. Thus, opening up without the test allows hotspots to develop without rapidly closing them down as they develop.
We would be doing this. People would be tested before boarding trains, buses, subways, boats, and trams or checking in for lodging. They would pay a fee for such because such allows them to do what they otherwise would not do. Employers would do so to keep workplaces safe, and they would be able to pass the cost on to us in higher prices. Our economic system can thrive only if people have mobility, and only when we get that mobility back will we get relief from high unemployment.
Quote:The problem with Warren is that he contends by changing the name of the isolation executive order, he holds it not to be isolation. This is a lie. This shows a lack of integrity. The idea that Washington State did not flatten the curve by rapid and strict isolation is false. Like the rest of the west coast, they acted properly and early. Any argument that Washington State supports isolation as not effective is void.
In Michigan, the governor has opened the state to golf and motorboating while allowing stores to demand that people wear masks. Heck, if I were the store manager I would have someone selling the masks with my company logo on it to people who do not come with them. Wear some sort of mask -- or go home. People can have curbside pickup or even have good delivered. Such costs a customer money, but if you want any special breaks in this time you had better be ready to pay for them.
So life can be boring, lonely, frustrating, and impoverished due to a Crisis. Just think of what it would have been like to be a British Jew who had bigger concerns such as keeping the Wehrmacht, Gestapo, and SS out of your country? Crises are not easy times, but they can certain give a powerful meaning to life. It can certainly define the rest of one's life as no other era can.
We are finding out that there are more important things in life than "retail therapy", playing basketball, going bowling, attending concerts, watching movies on a giant screen, having complex meals, pumping coins into slot machines, or viewing great art. Avoiding a ventilator (which has only about a 20% survival rate) doesn't sound worth the risk.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.