05-18-2020, 10:19 PM
It seems the White House really got into the Cubic Model made some time ago. It was build not by an epidemic specialist, but a financial advisor. It is a not really a model of something real, but a curve fit which can be done by Excel, though there are slightly improved professional programs that do the same thing. Basically, you can feed in any set of data, and it will draw lines based on that data. If you ask it for a cubic curve fit on the virus case data of a while back, it will tell you that we will have zero cases by mid May.
Which is exactly the prediction Pence made a few days ago. The virus will go away by mid May. Sound familiar?
Of course, the curve fit which worked for the old data does not fit so well today. You would get a really different result, as you would get if you asked Excel for a straight line fit, or an exponential fit. But... the White House stuck with the obsolete data and the type of curve that could show a favorable result. If they were going to go with a curve fit, the least they could do is run it daily as the data base grew.
Anyway, the curve fit 'model' told them what they wanted to hear, so they based the federal response off the curve fit.
Which is exactly the prediction Pence made a few days ago. The virus will go away by mid May. Sound familiar?
Of course, the curve fit which worked for the old data does not fit so well today. You would get a really different result, as you would get if you asked Excel for a straight line fit, or an exponential fit. But... the White House stuck with the obsolete data and the type of curve that could show a favorable result. If they were going to go with a curve fit, the least they could do is run it daily as the data base grew.
Anyway, the curve fit 'model' told them what they wanted to hear, so they based the federal response off the curve fit.
That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people shall not perish from the earth.