05-21-2020, 01:02 AM
(05-20-2020, 10:10 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:(05-20-2020, 01:00 PM)David Horn Wrote:(05-18-2020, 06:46 AM)Kinser79 Wrote: First, Mr. Horn, I never claimed to have any knowledge of epidemiology. So we can ignore that little dig. We know you probably know about as much as I on the matter as well. That being said the healthcare system is not being over run with cases. Not even in New York City. Why? Most people with the virus are actually asymptomatic. If they don't feel sick and don't think they are sick they have no reason whatever to go to a hospital. As such much capacity that was added to deal with Carona stands empty while at the same time necessary life saving procedures are being delayed by the lock down.
The case with Italy is probably a result of Italy being well Italy. Which reminds me of this:
Old Joke Wrote:Heaven is where the cooks are French, the police are British, the mechanics are German, the lovers
are Italian and everything is organized by the Swiss.
Hell is where the cooks are British, the police are German, the mechanics are French, the lovers are
Swiss, and everything is organized by the Italians.
Next. Let us suppose the idea was to slow the spread of the virus...that can be more easily done by face masks (to prevent those infected from spreading it rather than from the healthy getting it--that is why and how masks help, I know because I had to do a large PPE presentation at a company meeting and that is exactly why the CDC tells people to wear a face covering [and no an N95 mask isn't required, it is ideal but not required a simple bandanna will do]. The other thing to do is to wash hands, which people handling food should be doing anyway and is required health department training for all my staff anyway. There was no need to lock down healthy people at all.
Also South Korea, Australia and New Zealand are very small countries and are not suitable comparisons for the US to use. China is closer but their numbers are heavily skewed. They aren't testing and they aren't reporting, and quite frankly the CCP can't be trusted.
Let's agree that masking is smart, so we can avoid that topic in the future. We disagree about isolation and social distancing. Frankly, this is a disease that infects the respiratory system directly, and has a relatively high R0 of ~2.8 (higher if the incidence of asymptomatic cases proves very common). Masks aren't enough. The disease is simply too infectious. Which brings us to the issue of crowded conditions and playing by the rules. The error rate in cities like NYC cannot be very high and still keep the virus at bay. If you live in a five story walkup with narrow stairs and hallways, all masks need to be N95 … but they aren't.
The CDC has good reason to believe that the vast majority of people infected are in fact asymptomatic. I hope I don't have to explain what the prefix a- means. In which case this means that this is a disease that nearly everyone gets infected with, but very few people get sick from (usually older and immune compromised people) and even fewer die from (again older people and the immune compromised).
Asymptomatic people are simply lucky. That said, COVID-19 is dangerous, and it can mess up people whom we may have been thinking were in good shape in many ways. People do not die of respiratory diseases in the First World, typically, unless they have been in danger from other medical conditions (congestive heart failure, cancer, AIDS, etc.)... but 90,000 Americans have already died. That is almost three times the usual death foll from recent years of motor-vehicle deaths, and more than the total of combat and custody deaths involving soldiers and sailors in either the Korean or Vietnam wars (and rapidly approaching the sum of such deaths in both wars). Asymptomatic people can cough or sneeze the often-lethal virus into someone who get sick and dies. So, yes, wear the mask unless you have gotten through it.
Quote:Also there is reason to believe that once one is infected, and recovers they acquire immunity to the virus (hence why survivor serum experiments) so then if we have a very infectious but asymptomatic disease running rampant then that means herd immunity will be acquired far far faster by doing essentially nothing.
Generally true about viral infections -- but we do not yet know all the sequelae. Chickenpox, rheumatic fever, syphilis, gonorrhea, and HIV/AIDS have consequences that can emerge years later. People who have survived the disease have had lasting organic damage. Good reason exists for flattening the curve, so to speak. Ideally we do not get COVID-19 unless as a vaccine of dead viruses.
Quote:The simple fact of the matter is that this disease was blown way out of proportion by the media (the flu kills more every year than COVID-19 even thought about), which spooked the population to agreeing to absolutely stupid, and probably unconstitutional lock down measures under the guise of emergency management. It is also possibly an attempt to subvert the elections since it seems the Blue Team wants to bring in mail in balloting which has a notoriously poor record of preventing election fraud.
The media did not overplay it. The NBA and NHL truncated their seasons upon finding that some athletes had contracted this disease. The media cannot overplay that. Consequences for shutting down usually-lucrative events are much smaller than infecting players, coaches, and ticket-buying audiences. The most basic rule of good business is do not hurt your customers. This explains why we do not tolerate heroin and cocaine. This explains why Kellogg's Corporation pressed charges on people who recklessly sold them bad peanut butter that Kellogg's avoided using in its Keebler division (that is a big deal near where I live). That explains why one is not allowed to sell liquor to children or to people already intoxicated.
Big Business shared taking the lead with mostly liberal politicians. These people have good lawyers, and some of the best use of a good attorney is to avoid getting into trouble. The biggest losses that a going-concern big business can get are consequences of egregious misconduct of its employees. Bad decisions can turn a company from a going concern into the concern of receivers.
Quote:It makes me wonder why you blues are so worried about those of us who want toinfect and kill grandmawork for a living under normal conditions when the dead overwhelmingly vote democratic.
A stocker at a Wal*Mart told me that the people who fail to wear masks tend to be on the most reactionary fringe of American politics without quite saying that. These are the people who pooh-pooh science, who have egoistic views of the world... I am guessing that such people are the tax protesters, gun-rights people, Christian Identity, etc.
Quote:Historically speaking, epidemics burn themselves out by either evolving into less symptomatic forms (like West African Ebola did), or by the population acquiring immunity (the reason why vaccines work). Ultimately unless we do develop a vaccine (which will take a minimum of two years) Covid-19 will burn itself out naturally. Once it does so it probably won't return, or if it does it will be the asymptomatic variety.
I hope to avoid COVID-19 long enough to get a vaccine for it or until the disease dies.
Quote:Ultimately my business decision to purchase masks for my employees has far more to do with potential liability than it does the epidemic. Under state law I'm required to provide PPE that is reasonably considered to be necessary for the health and safety of my workers, masks are considered to be PPE. It is to me almost the same as providing my bakers with oven mitts.
Fine. Such is a rational response.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.