The Coronavirus

[Eric the Green]

(05-24-2020, 12:46 PM)Mikebert Wrote: Here is a plot of the death rate per day per million pop in what I call the "Hot Zone" (NY, NJ, MA, MI, PA, IL & CT) and the rest of the country. As a point of comparison, the 2009 flu (a bad flu year) saw 61000 deaths over six months, which works out to 1.1 deaths/million/day.

Three observations:

(1) the death rate in the 2 regions is very different (the hot zone scale is 10X that for the rest of the country)

(2) the profile shapes are different. In the Hot Zone the death rate rose to a peak and then has fallen off dramatically. In the rest of the country, death rates rose to a plateau about a tenth of the size of the Hot Zone peak and has stayed there.

(3) Even after the large drop in the Hot Zone, the death rates there are still much higher than in the rest of the country.

Discuss.

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The graph compared the two zones, showing the rest of US now has a higher rate than the hot zone, but you say one trend line is 10X the other. The graph might be less confusing if it compared the two lines on the same scale.

Another observation from my daily observation of the stats: MD, VA and DC are also part of the hot zone.