The Coronavirus

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-24-2020, 12:46 PM)Mikebert Wrote: Here is a plot of the death rate per day per million pop in what I call the "Hot Zone" (NY, NJ, MA, MI, PA, IL & CT) and the rest of the country. As a point of comparison, the 2009 flu (a bad flu year) saw 61000 deaths over six months, which works out to 1.1 deaths/million/day...

The Hot Zone states are highly populated states in the northeast, with the exception of the addition of Illinois.  Most got caught looking at China while the infections came in from Europe.  They didn’t react as quickly as the west coast states, and thus the high peak.  They did react, while much of the country did not, thus the rest of the US is still going up.

The big thing is that they have the high population density and thus the high R0 so had to react.  Many other states have the lower R0, thus not as difficult a problem, but their policies are nowhere near as stringent.  A more moderate isolation might be enough to turn things to an exponential decay, but so far the politics have not let it happen.

Not sure how much more can be said with only two lines to look at.  Breaking it up into more groups by response policy might be useful.