(05-24-2020, 09:35 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: I don't think it's obvious that the measures that are currently failing to control the number of cases in the "hot zone" are the ones that should be continued.
I live in an urban suburb of Boston, a hot area of a hot zone. We had a fairly severe shutdown with people basically going to grocery and drug stores and nowhere else. This reduced travel and should have reduced the viral reproduction rate R by a factor of 10,
I don't understand how it is obvious that the measures being used to control the number of cases in the "hot zone" are failing. Over the last month, the daily death rate has fallen by 75%. Over the same period of time in the rest of the country the death rate has been slightly up (6%).
Also, where did you get that factor of 10 from?