04-19-2020, 07:01 PM
(04-19-2020, 12:44 PM)Isoko Wrote: Well, my own thoughts regarding the end of this 4T are rather grim. I have been trying to post for days but could not get out the right words so I'll just be honest on this.
I think 4T is going to lead to the collapse of the current Western world order. I think America could either divide up into states or withdraw from the international scene with alot of domestic problems for the coming decades.
Europe will probably fall into the hands of the Populists. This will collapse the EU. The end result of all of this will be a USSR moment where the West enters into its very own version of the hard 90s. It's not a pretty prediction but I just cannot see this 4T ending peacefully and everything going back to business as usual.
That said, there will be a revival and I think the Millennials and Zoomers will build a new economy. There won't be a major war to fight so that is the good news. Might be some potential domestic conflicts in European states but we won't have WW3 this time around. Just expect depression like economic times.
As for the BRICs, they will dominate for the next few decades. However they are sort of having their own weird 2T events. For China, it will be about less strict rules and more freedom without persecution. I expect the end result for China will be a sort of liberalising period like the USSR went through with Khrushchev.
For Russia, it'll be about money and improving the country's economy. They have big problems in terms of only Moscow and St. Petersburg are growing with the rest of the country declining. A future Russian government is going to see this as a priority to fix.
Not sure about the others but I suspect that countries like Iran either have a revolution or more reforms at the top down to the bottom, which has been sort of attempted only half heartedly.
I agree, some grim things will happen. I past 4Ts, very grim things happened. That does not at all mean that the outcome was grim. We have gone through crises and re-organization, and came out ahead. The progressive side has always won. A relatively safe and calm first turning recovery period followed, and then an awakening, which is the peak of the cycle and releases new ideas for what will come out of the next crisis, for which the battle lines appear, and the cycle moves forward. Time is cyclical, not linear. or why else do we have circular clocks. Motion is circular, interacting with the linear. The wheel moves around, and moves us forward on the road.
I have predicted a possible US break up and/or withdrawal from international institutions for decades for this period. Whether it actually happens will be up to us. Perhaps what comes out of it will be better. At best, I see lots of reform proposals beings made, and for the first time in 40 years, some movement on it will happen, because for the first time in 40 years, the neo-liberal Reaganomics forces will be sent back on their heels.
It depends whether you use the real definition of populism, or the phony one being used today. Populists advocate power to the people. The right wing demagogues in Europe today, like those in the USA, are and will be losing ground.