04-20-2020, 09:45 AM
Warren,
Why thankyou. I am glad that it is rather optimistic, heh. Yeah, I honestly don't see anything happening about from the decline and eventual collapse of the West.
When it comes to a major war, then no. The reason for that is apart from the West, the BRICs are actually doing fine. They have no reason to go to war as it is not in their best interests. There is still alot of economic growth to be had for the BRICs.
What instead is likely to happen is that the West goes belly up and the BRICs go into a sort of neo-imperial mode, dominating markets and territories in a weird 21st century play on the 19th century. Today's BRICs are the European great powers two centuries ago.
The next major war to occur will be when the BRICs start to reach their 4T period which should be around the late 21st to early 22nd century. This fits in quite well with my analysis. When they stop growing, they will decide to turn on one another.
Eric,
I have seen you mention this several times, that the "progressive" side always wins. However I have to disagree with you on this for two reasons.
1) The only historical periods where the progressives have actually "won" has predominately been in Anglo countries, particularly the United States. In the case of let's say Russia for examples, the progressive side never wins and instead it is always the conservative side.
Take the Russian Revolution. The early Bolsheviks actually were the first government to permit gay sex. No other European country would touch the prospect. What happened? A man called Stalin took over, thought it was too bad for healthy family relations and made it illegal again.
Then we had Khrushchev who was a liberal reformer and then Brezhnev who started to scale back the reforms. Then we had Yeltsin who allowed everything to pretty much happen and then Putin who has followed in the footsteps of Stalin and Brezhnev.
This seems to be a repeat cycle in Russian history. There is a brief period of liberalism then the door is shut and it is back to conservatism again. Russia is just one example of this case on why the progressives do not always win.
2) There is nothing else left to progress too. Everything has already been done that is, essentially, progressive. If you go any further down the liberal tree, you are going into some pretty vile territory. Therefore, the pendulum for the next few awakenings is probably going to swing more to the right. It's about the balance and you cannot keep progressing when there is nothing else left to progress too, otherwise you are going to end up in a very bad Sodom and Gomorrah situation.
As for the Populists, I agree when it comes to the Anglo countries. They are pretty comfortable where they are right now and there is no desire for major changes with I think Brexit and Trump being the big push.
However Europe is different. Europe is going to have right wing Populists like Le Pen, Salvini and Wilders getting into power. Another major economic meltdown there, another refugee crisis and it is pretty much guaranteed. When they get into power, well it'll be closed borders, mass deportations, etc.
You will have protests and riots from the lefties but the people will support it. It won't be like the Nazis or anything but I think that it is pretty much inevitable for Europe. Europe always has these spikes of craziness every century as is the nature of the continent.
Overall Europe will go the right and that is pretty much inevitable.
Why thankyou. I am glad that it is rather optimistic, heh. Yeah, I honestly don't see anything happening about from the decline and eventual collapse of the West.
When it comes to a major war, then no. The reason for that is apart from the West, the BRICs are actually doing fine. They have no reason to go to war as it is not in their best interests. There is still alot of economic growth to be had for the BRICs.
What instead is likely to happen is that the West goes belly up and the BRICs go into a sort of neo-imperial mode, dominating markets and territories in a weird 21st century play on the 19th century. Today's BRICs are the European great powers two centuries ago.
The next major war to occur will be when the BRICs start to reach their 4T period which should be around the late 21st to early 22nd century. This fits in quite well with my analysis. When they stop growing, they will decide to turn on one another.
Eric,
I have seen you mention this several times, that the "progressive" side always wins. However I have to disagree with you on this for two reasons.
1) The only historical periods where the progressives have actually "won" has predominately been in Anglo countries, particularly the United States. In the case of let's say Russia for examples, the progressive side never wins and instead it is always the conservative side.
Take the Russian Revolution. The early Bolsheviks actually were the first government to permit gay sex. No other European country would touch the prospect. What happened? A man called Stalin took over, thought it was too bad for healthy family relations and made it illegal again.
Then we had Khrushchev who was a liberal reformer and then Brezhnev who started to scale back the reforms. Then we had Yeltsin who allowed everything to pretty much happen and then Putin who has followed in the footsteps of Stalin and Brezhnev.
This seems to be a repeat cycle in Russian history. There is a brief period of liberalism then the door is shut and it is back to conservatism again. Russia is just one example of this case on why the progressives do not always win.
2) There is nothing else left to progress too. Everything has already been done that is, essentially, progressive. If you go any further down the liberal tree, you are going into some pretty vile territory. Therefore, the pendulum for the next few awakenings is probably going to swing more to the right. It's about the balance and you cannot keep progressing when there is nothing else left to progress too, otherwise you are going to end up in a very bad Sodom and Gomorrah situation.
As for the Populists, I agree when it comes to the Anglo countries. They are pretty comfortable where they are right now and there is no desire for major changes with I think Brexit and Trump being the big push.
However Europe is different. Europe is going to have right wing Populists like Le Pen, Salvini and Wilders getting into power. Another major economic meltdown there, another refugee crisis and it is pretty much guaranteed. When they get into power, well it'll be closed borders, mass deportations, etc.
You will have protests and riots from the lefties but the people will support it. It won't be like the Nazis or anything but I think that it is pretty much inevitable for Europe. Europe always has these spikes of craziness every century as is the nature of the continent.
Overall Europe will go the right and that is pretty much inevitable.