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The Lichtman Keys
#19
(06-19-2020, 11:16 PM)Key Wrote: The worst for an incumbent in the 20th century was Hoover.


1 Party Mandate After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. FALSE. Democrats won big in the House in 1930.

2 Contest There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. TRUE. Slight contest that amounted to nothing. 

3 Incumbency The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE. 

4 Third party There is no significant third party or independent campaign. TRUE, as less than 3% of the popular vote went to the Socialist Norman Thomas, the Communist William Foster, and other irrelevancies. 

5 Short-term economy The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. FALSE -- three years of economic meltdown with mass fear of worse.

6 Long-term economy Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. FALSE -- Hoover presided over an economic meltdown that came close to  the economic conditions of the late nineteenth century.

7 Policy change The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. TRUE -- even if the biggest economic effect came from the Smoot-Hawley tariff, which worsened the economic reality. 

8 Social unrest There is no sustained social unrest during the term. FALSE -- the Bonus March by veterans who were promised bonuses that the government supposedly could not afford. 

9 Scandal The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE

10 Foreign/military failure The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. FALSE -- Satan Incarnate was taking over in Germany in part due to stringent collection of reparations.  

11 Foreign/military success The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. FALSE -- there was no significant success.

12 Incumbent charisma The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE-- Hoover was a wreck.

13 Challenger charisma The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE -- FDR exuded confidence and optimism uncharacteristic of America at the time

Eight false keys, which is about what I see for Trump this year.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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Messages In This Thread
The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:02 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:16 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-30-2020, 03:56 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:30 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:39 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-19-2020, 11:48 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 06-20-2020, 12:20 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-05-2020, 06:22 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-05-2020, 05:12 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 03:57 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 04:15 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:05 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:21 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:32 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 08-10-2020, 05:57 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-29-2020, 10:29 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 09-29-2020, 07:36 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by pbrower2a - 09-30-2020, 11:54 AM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 09-30-2020, 03:03 PM
RE: The Lichtman Keys - by Eric the Green - 10-01-2020, 12:21 AM

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