02-07-2017, 08:33 PM
Some Guy Wrote:If the US continues to behave as it has done, Russia has an incentive to do as you suggest.OK
Quote:If America retreats into its hemisphere on its own, this incentive goes away. Russia and the US aren't competitors, provided the US does not continue with maximalist claims regarding its influence. Russia and the US would have ample room to cooperate by propping up countries like Japan and India, in order to keep China's attention focused in that direction.
If the US retreats into its own hemisphere, it has decided not the play the great game anymore. In that case, China and the US cease to be competitors and the US has no incentive to assist Russia in meddling with China. The US is not going to become a pipsqueak. In addition to maintaining an adequate home defense against India and Russia, they will need to expend considerable resources to maintain hegemony in the Western Pacific and Indian Oceans against India, Japan, Southeast Asia and the Pacific nations. Even mid century, the US will still have more than half the military potential of China and this would be concentrated in the Western hemisphere. The multiplicity of tasks, plus the daunting logistics means China will just leave the US be if it chooses to withdraw.
Remember, a US that retreats into is hemisphere has given up on the globalization project, (i.e Empire). It will no longer care what happens in the Old World. And as I pointed out there is no rational reason for either China or Russia to come into conflict. China is not of the West. They set out on voyages of exploration fifty years before the West. You probably have read of the voyages of Cheng Ho. What the Chinese did with the inferior cultures they encountered was quite different from what the Westerners did. I believe this difference shows how approaches to geopolitics may be culturally dependent. We may be relying too much on a Western model for what non-Western powers might do.