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Is Trump embracing aggressive withdrawal?
#56
(02-10-2017, 06:57 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Mike,

Quote: This has been my observation, Russia is mostly assisting Assad.  That means targeting regime opponents be they ISIS or others (mostly others).  That is, Russia does not perceive a threat from ISIS, they only are concerned with threats to their allies/clients.

This is largely consistent with your statement "cooperating with the US against ISIS is something the Russians have been asking about for a while, because it effectively means that the US is helping them eliminate threats to their clients/allies in the Middle East versus trying to topple them".

I am glad that you agree that my statements are internally consistent.

Quote:Since Russia, which has a large Muslim population, is not concerned with ISIS per se, shouldn't they wonder why the US says that it is?  Given the lack of "skin in the game" in the Mideast and that Trump is a serial liar, might not Putin decide the less it has to do materially with the US, the better? 

It is best in these circumstances to constrain the level of speculation involved.

1.) Russia IS concerned about ISIS.  As you pointed out, they have a fairly large Muslim population, some of them disaffected and vulnerable to further radicalization.  There is concern about young Chechens fighting with ISIS, and possibly coming back home to apply what they've learned.  It is better to fight them in Syria than back home.  They simply have more pressing concerns, vis making sure their client state doesn't topple first.

2.) The US is already bombing ISIS in Syria and Iraq, and has expressed interest in continuing to do so.  Since they are already there, why not work with them, particularly if the US is bombing one group and Russia in turn can bomb others.  At the very least, a degree of cooperation would allow for "deconfliction" of their separate missions.

3.) They already reached a tentative agreement to cooperate in September of last year, even if it had its issues (US bombing of Syrian troops, the aid convoy attack in Aleppo, etc.)

There is ample evidence to suggest it is at least a possibility, with an overlap in interests between the two.

Putin/Russia's concern over the IS is hardly yet to be demonstrated. He has not been bombing them much, but instead bombing the rebels against Assad. He is propping up a government that cannot rule its country. How is that going to keep the IS at bay? Rebels of all kinds will not go away as long as Assad is in power. Only a partition imposed on Assad has any chance to work, if Assad is not replaced by the Free Syrians. All I can see is a new Kurdistan taking over in most of Eastern Syria, and Turkey won't like that. For now, it's an indefinite clusterfuck.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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Messages In This Thread
RE: Is Trump embracing aggressive withdrawal? - by Eric the Green - 02-25-2017, 03:01 PM
MIC spending is way too high - by Ragnarök_62 - 04-01-2017, 07:52 PM
RE: MIC spending is way too high - by Warren Dew - 04-02-2017, 01:09 AM
RE: MIC spending is way too high - by pbrower2a - 04-02-2017, 02:46 PM
RE: MIC spending is way too high - by Warren Dew - 04-02-2017, 06:15 PM
RE: MIC spending is way too high - by pbrower2a - 04-02-2017, 07:16 PM
RE: MIC spending is way too high - by Warren Dew - 04-16-2017, 02:09 PM

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