02-25-2017, 04:51 PM
Quote:Sorry. The first of those paragraphs was about which example might be the best assuming, for the sake of argument, that China was trying to establish a maritime empire, which I thought was what you and Mikebert were discussing. The second was why China is more likely not trying to establish a maritime empire, and thus why the first paragraph is moot.
Hegemons in recent eras have tended to be maritime powers. It is a little more complicated than what was talked about in M & T, as the powers identified by them as "hegemons" were not necessarily the most powerful countries at the time. Mike discussed this with you or Dave previously, I believe.
There are factors owing to China's industrialization and present geopolitical backdrop that make a certain amount of maritime expansion likely. However, for reasons mentioned by both you and I, I don't think it will behave the same way that insular or near-insular (the Dutch flooded their dykes several times to prevent land invasions) states that reached that status did.
Quote:(1) The Russians got their propaganda out quickly regarding the invasion through South Ossetia, but in fact what happened was that US satellite info was shared with Georgia showing the Russian assault columns going into the tunnel first. Georgian forces raced to confront the Russians at a choke point in South Ossetia, but the Russians made it there first. The Russians stopped the instant US aircraft touched down in Georgia carrying Georgian troops from Iraq; Putin is not so stupid as to risk direct confrontation with the US in present circumstances. Western reports were incorrect because western reporters did not see the classified satellite info about the Russians starting their invasion, but did see the Georgian response, and the Georgian government was trying to maintain operational secrecy in order to ambush the incoming Russian column. It was possible to piece this together from accounts in the Ukrainian press at the time plus later accounts, but it wasn't easy to figure out.
I'd like to see some sources on that. Ideally from something a little more reputable than the "Ukrainian press", if you don't mind.
Quote:(2) The EU is incapable of defending itself because it has no military. What's relevant are the individual countries, and the NATO alliance, of which the US is a part.
That seems like their problem, not ours. Russia does not have the power to overrun the whole continent (and I doubt much of a desire, either), and if it seemed like they were looking to make the effort the Europeans have the resources and structures in place to resist on their own. If Putin or a successor like Rogozin (just throwing names out there) actually made the effort to occupy and absorb the Ukraine, it might even have a salutory effect for US geopolitical interests by reducing their ability to project influence elsewhere and convincing the EU to spend money on something other than subsidies for French farmers and Arab refugees.
Just a thought.
Quote:As for Hitler, check out my earlier post to John regarding realistic circumstances where we could have allied with Hitler in WWII. At some point we need to quite treating him as a bugaboo so we can draw useful historical lessons from him.
I saw it, and I agree with you. As I mentioned in the Bannon thread, it is fairly easy to imagine a scenario where the West allied with fascists against the Communists rather than the other way round, in the same way that we propped up right-wing dictatorships during the Cold War.
I have no objection to treating him as a historical figure, I was simply objecting to you reaching for a lazy historical reference that has been used repeatedly to justify US intervention just about anywhere, for any reason.
Quote:Good point. Bleh.
Like I said, there's a certain amount of hysteria involved, here, namely on the Left, and their fellow travelers among the neocons.
Quote:The public story on Flynn is not the whole story. If you're interested, I can dig up some references on what probably actually happened.
If you don't mind, I would love to read them. It wasn't something I followed that closely (I have been fairly busy recently).