02-27-2017, 07:52 PM
[Someguy]A conclusion of the macrodecision phase by mid-century does not preclude a conflict in the 2020s.[/quote]
Quite correct. In fact the span from 1945 to 2020 is 75 years, implying a 100 year cycle, which is the standard length.
-I agree too. But this is the sort of thing that supplemental wars* are about. This is what is supposed to happen during the delegitimization phase/agenda-setting phase. According to M&T both Korea and Vietnam occurred during a World Power phase, while the collapse of the USSR and the Gulf War were during the 1973-2000 delegitimization/agenda-setting phase. Now I simply don’t see any agenda-setting by Russia in the 1980’s and 1990’s, I see this happening today. And I don’t see China’s venture into Vietnam as an example of agenda-setting either, but I do see their behavior today as such. I do not see either Russia or China’s current behavior as any sort of bid for hegemony, is the role of the challenger. That is, this does not strike me as a prelude to a global war period, but rather a supplementary war period.
*One of the things that led scholars like M&T to consider a cyclical view of foreign relations in the first place was the observation first made by Quincy Wright (1942) that the intensity of great power war in the European states system fluctuated with a fifty year periodicity as can be readily seen in an inspection of a time series of war deaths:
![[Image: War-Cycle.fig.gif]](https://mikebert.neocities.org/War-Cycle.fig.gif)
You will recognize the MD periods in this chart. Note the spike in between. These are the supplemental wars that correspond to M&T’s delegitimization/agenda-setting phase.
Quite correct. In fact the span from 1945 to 2020 is 75 years, implying a 100 year cycle, which is the standard length.
Quote:I agree that China and Russia are just trying to consolidate their sphere of influence as they emerge from the wreckage of Communism (each of them in different ways)
-I agree too. But this is the sort of thing that supplemental wars* are about. This is what is supposed to happen during the delegitimization phase/agenda-setting phase. According to M&T both Korea and Vietnam occurred during a World Power phase, while the collapse of the USSR and the Gulf War were during the 1973-2000 delegitimization/agenda-setting phase. Now I simply don’t see any agenda-setting by Russia in the 1980’s and 1990’s, I see this happening today. And I don’t see China’s venture into Vietnam as an example of agenda-setting either, but I do see their behavior today as such. I do not see either Russia or China’s current behavior as any sort of bid for hegemony, is the role of the challenger. That is, this does not strike me as a prelude to a global war period, but rather a supplementary war period.
*One of the things that led scholars like M&T to consider a cyclical view of foreign relations in the first place was the observation first made by Quincy Wright (1942) that the intensity of great power war in the European states system fluctuated with a fifty year periodicity as can be readily seen in an inspection of a time series of war deaths:
You will recognize the MD periods in this chart. Note the spike in between. These are the supplemental wars that correspond to M&T’s delegitimization/agenda-setting phase.