02-28-2017, 04:33 PM
(02-27-2017, 10:34 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: I disagree, China's agenda-setting was very much in evidence in the 80s and 90s, that's how they became what they are today. I am not sure that supplementary wars are a requirement of the same way that macrodecision phases or k-waves are. In so far as there was one, I'd say the function (determining who would be the future challenger) was fulfilled by the conclusion of the Cold War. It is worthwhile to point out that the army peak occurred around that time. The land-based power lost (or rather, gave up). There was actually a spike of violence during that period worldwide.
The relevant parts of the cycle are in the k-waves, and the macrodecisions. The 19th K-wave is already here, and has been for a while. This is not the delegitimation phase for us, but the deconcentration.
No you are making the error of interpreting the present cycle to fit the model instead of the data. Army share rises during the deconcentration/coalition-building phase as the challenger gears up for the subsequent showdown.
The Portuguese played a major role in two K-waves. The first (Guinea Gold) took off after 1475, the last peaked around 1555. The Dutch played a major role in three K-waves, the first (Baltic shipping) took off after 1550, the last peaked around 1725. The British played a major role in five K-waves. The first, Indian textiles, took off around 1660, the last peaked around 1908. America has also played a major role in three waves. The first, American industrial, took off after 1860 and the last will peak in the future.
In the past cycles the future leaders had their first K-wave participation 20-54 years (avg 33±15) before the start of the MD phase. In no way can China be considered a major player in the IT K-wave that got underway after 1980. They will likely play a major role in the next K-wave which could get started in the next decade. Adding 33±15 to this takeoff would suggest that start of an MD phase mid-century.
I am not claiming a start then. I am simply making the point that the K-waves support your contention to a lesser degree that the geopolitical considerations.