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Is Trump embracing aggressive withdrawal?
#95
(03-03-2017, 11:51 AM)SomeGuy Wrote: I even looked at the naval share charts for each hegemon over its period of dominance and found no support for your rule that the change in naval share in 1991 indicated a restart of the cycle.[/quote
Huh?  You didn't see the rise in British share from 1695 to 1715 and the maintence of a high share for decades after that defines the MD and World Power phases? You missed the 30% decline from 1735 to 1785 indicating the decline during the AG and DC phases?  You then missed the resurgence from 1785 to 1815 and the maintenance of high levels for decades after showing a new round of leadership for Britain in the next MD and WP phases?


Quote:As for the bit about the challenger, the old power, and the new power, there are a number of ways things could play out.  We could have a set of wars spaced 20 years apart, with the possibility of one side winning both, or each side winning one.  We could have a gradual decay of one side or the other over the course of the MD phase, with smaller scale clashes and maneuverings attending this (like the switchover between Venice and Genoa).  We could have a situation, which looks unfortunately more plausible than i would really like, where Russia ends up being the challenger to the US in some form (needn't necessarily be a direct conventional conflict), and China the eventual winner.  This is interesting to discuss, but in the absence of further information it is ultimately speculative.  All of those additional rules you tacked on 20 years ago are interesting, but ultimately the theory is about leading sectors (I won't say K-wave because I know how you get distracted when I do) and the transition between world powers.  These still suggest an MD phase starting about 2030 and ending around mid-century.
And how would you invalidate the model? Is any conflict between the US and China constitute support for your idea that a MD phase will begin around the 2020?  How would you prove that a conflict, should one occur, is like the Napoleonic War (an MD war) and not the Seven Years War (a supplementary war)?
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Messages In This Thread
RE: Is Trump embracing aggressive withdrawal? - by Mikebert - 03-04-2017, 04:20 PM
MIC spending is way too high - by Ragnarök_62 - 04-01-2017, 07:52 PM
RE: MIC spending is way too high - by Warren Dew - 04-02-2017, 01:09 AM
RE: MIC spending is way too high - by pbrower2a - 04-02-2017, 02:46 PM
RE: MIC spending is way too high - by Warren Dew - 04-02-2017, 06:15 PM
RE: MIC spending is way too high - by pbrower2a - 04-02-2017, 07:16 PM
RE: MIC spending is way too high - by Warren Dew - 04-16-2017, 02:09 PM

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