03-21-2017, 06:31 PM
(03-11-2017, 10:31 PM)SomeGuy Wrote: Because a MD phase does not last a year, or two, or 7, but 20 or 30. The last several were noticeable as such, as well. The MD phase is also supposed to correspond with the conclusion of the 19th K-wave and start-up period of the 20th, so there is that to watch for as well. At the end of it, one power (presumably America or China) will stand supreme in the way that the US was after WWII or Britain was after the Napoleonic War.
So, if things work out like that, I would consider the thing validated. Considering that the period is supposed to end around the time I would be looking at retirement, to be honest, it isn't something that is going to be keeping me up at night (barring whatever fireworks ensue if it actually plays out that way).
The Agenda-Building phase lasts a long time too. The K-wave indicator is not helpful because the dating of the it is arbitrary. Different scholars draw their K-waves in different ways. Probably the best consensus is the one provided by Goldstein (p 67) in his extensive literature review: http://www.joshuagoldstein.com/jgcyc04.pdf
The only objective measure they have is the naval share. And the behavior of naval share in this cycle has not been like the behavior in the previous ones.
Goldstein also provides a nice review of hegemony cycles where you can see the various schools of though including the school led by Modelski. See chapters 5 and 6 in http://www.joshuagoldstein.com/jgcycle.htm