Thread Rating:
  • 0 Vote(s) - 0 Average
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
Things Trump Is Doing Right
#68
(05-04-2017, 08:21 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:
(05-03-2017, 11:52 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:
(05-03-2017, 03:22 PM)David Horn Wrote:
(05-03-2017, 01:21 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: ... Hillary was right, of course, that the Comey letter plus wikileaks cost her the election. I watched the Nate Silver site every day as her "chances" plunged relentlessly toward negative right after the letter came out. Comey's retraction then stopped the slide, at least for the moment. However, Trump was a better speaker and campaigner, and that made a big difference too. I don't know if Hillary admits this or not.

Hillary was already in a nose spin prior to the Comey letter.  The letter added to her troubles, but she would most probably have lost in any case.

I followed the election closely, though, and although Hillary was in slight decline before the letter, it was the letter that created a nosedive, for sure. I commented on it here, on the forum, as it happened.

Would she have lost anyway? Who knows. My sense from following the trendlines up to the election, is no. She was still well enough ahead 10 days out.

The polls were off by about 2 points on election day. That difference could have made the difference. But I think the Comey affair created a larger drop than that.

Keep in mind that the 538 average is delayed by a few days, since it takes some time for pollsters to publish their results.  David is right:  Clinton had peaked two weeks before and the pendulum was swinging back to Trump.  Clinton actually did better than she had in the previous few swings.

She had peaked, somewhat, a week or two earlier, but since then until after Comey's letter the slide was minor, and she didn't do better than in previous swings after Comeygate. I watched it happen; the plunge was deep and fast right after the Comey letter came out. I noted at the time, the trend lines were toward defeat in the 538 estimate, the whole time from the letter until she was cleared. Despite any delay, her poll numbers never even remotely recovered from this slide.

The Comey Letter Probably Cost Clinton The Election
So why won’t the media admit as much?
By Nate Silver
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the...-election/

Clinton’s standing in the polls fell sharply. She’d led Trump by 5.9 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s popular vote projection at 12:01 a.m. on Oct. 28. A week later — after polls had time to fully reflect the letter — her lead had declined to 2.9 percentage points. That is to say, there was a shift of about 3 percentage points against Clinton. And it was an especially pernicious shift for Clinton because (at least according to the FiveThirtyEight model) Clinton was underperforming in swing states as compared to the country overall. In the average swing state,3 Clinton’s lead declined from 4.5 percentage points at the start of Oct. 28 to just 1.7 percentage points on Nov. 4. If the polls were off even slightly, Trump could be headed to the White House.

[Image: silver-essay-10-0501.png?quality=90&stri...=575&ssl=1]

According to the Real Clear Politics average, Trump reached a peak on Oct.31, and Hillary reached a low on Nov.3.
Oct.26: Clinton 47.8, Trump 42.2
Oct.31: Clinton 47.5, Trump 45.3
Nov.3: Clinton 46.4, Trump 44.8
Nov.7: Clinton 46.8, Trump 43.6
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/...-5491.html

A week ago, Hillary Clinton was riding a seemingly unassailable lead in the national polls.

But her lead shrank dramatically - it could even be within the margin of error - after the FBI announced they were investigating more emails . But she received a late boost ahead of polling day when she was cleared of any criminal wrongdoing .

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/us-...er-8883803
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply


Messages In This Thread
Things Trump Is Doing Right - by X_4AD_84 - 04-07-2017, 10:22 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 04-07-2017, 10:30 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Warren Dew - 04-07-2017, 11:24 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by David Horn - 04-10-2017, 10:24 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Galen - 04-08-2017, 08:35 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 04-08-2017, 11:42 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 04-08-2017, 07:37 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by FLBones - 04-08-2017, 05:59 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Emman85 - 04-08-2017, 06:59 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Galen - 04-08-2017, 11:15 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by David Horn - 04-10-2017, 10:37 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Warren Dew - 04-16-2017, 12:17 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 04-10-2017, 10:27 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 04-10-2017, 11:17 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 04-12-2017, 01:27 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Warren Dew - 04-16-2017, 11:54 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Warren Dew - 04-17-2017, 08:50 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Warren Dew - 04-17-2017, 07:16 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Ragnarök_62 - 04-17-2017, 11:19 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Ragnarök_62 - 04-18-2017, 01:13 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Warren Dew - 04-18-2017, 09:32 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Warren Dew - 05-02-2017, 10:54 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Warren Dew - 04-17-2017, 08:30 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by David Horn - 04-18-2017, 10:12 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by David Horn - 04-18-2017, 03:05 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by David Horn - 05-03-2017, 03:22 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Warren Dew - 05-04-2017, 08:21 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Eric the Green - 05-04-2017, 11:53 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 05-03-2017, 02:43 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 05-04-2017, 08:14 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Odin - 05-06-2017, 08:55 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Galen - 05-06-2017, 11:50 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Odin - 05-08-2017, 06:47 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Galen - 05-09-2017, 03:57 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Odin - 05-09-2017, 06:35 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Galen - 05-09-2017, 03:21 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 05-09-2017, 06:29 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Odin - 05-11-2017, 07:14 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Odin - 05-12-2017, 07:19 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by David Horn - 05-09-2017, 09:58 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 05-07-2017, 07:04 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Galen - 05-07-2017, 06:27 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 05-08-2017, 12:29 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Galen - 05-09-2017, 04:04 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Warren Dew - 05-09-2017, 12:20 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 05-08-2017, 07:27 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by David Horn - 05-10-2017, 10:53 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 05-10-2017, 01:03 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 05-10-2017, 01:55 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 05-13-2017, 09:04 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 05-15-2017, 08:46 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by David Horn - 05-15-2017, 10:13 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 05-15-2017, 05:23 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by David Horn - 05-16-2017, 09:35 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by David Horn - 05-16-2017, 05:08 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 05-17-2017, 08:15 AM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by Mikebert - 09-19-2017, 03:49 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by David Horn - 09-20-2017, 03:35 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by pbrower2a - 05-15-2017, 04:15 PM
RE: Things Trump Is Doing Right - by FLBones - 05-17-2017, 10:38 AM

Possibly Related Threads...
Thread Author Replies Views Last Post
  DC Statehood. We need 2 Democratic senators to even things up. Can we do it? Eric the Green 0 820 04-27-2021, 02:27 PM
Last Post: Eric the Green

Forum Jump:


Users browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)