08-21-2017, 12:10 AM
(08-20-2017, 11:32 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: So why does the pattern work? I'm guessing that any President who is at all successful or even simply gets away with his inadequacies and blunders gets a second term, and that after eight years the President's party has usually tun out of ideas. Thus the usual turn after eight years.
I think the right way to think about those second terms is this: the incumbent has a huge advantage in federal elections, whether it's the Presidency or congressional races. That's why we now have term limits on Presidents.
The recent pattern of switching parties when the term limits are up is probably the same thing that causes the President's party to lose seats in midterms: people who dislike the current incumbents tend to be more motivated than people who like them. The effect is just not enough to overturn the advantages of incumbency in most cases.
Running out of ideas is what causes long periods of single party dominance. Recently, the parties have figured out that they can always adopt the other party's ideas instead, though, as Clinton and the younger Bush did.