The Maelstrom of Violence

[Kinser79]

(09-04-2017, 01:57 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Valid points.  Their scientists also got training from the Soviet Union way back when.
That said, Russia and China were much larger economies with much larger populations from which to draw talented people.  They didn't start from scratch, either; the Soviet Union got help from spies in the US like Klaus Fuchs and others, and China got a lot of open help from the Soviet Union.

If you consider sending a few scientists to "not be starting from scratch" then not even the US did that. The British essentially sent over their entire "Tube Alloys" program to the US in 1942ish.

Quote:That's what they say, but at the same time South Korea is lobbying the US against military action.  The only concrete actions anyone is taking are economic sanctions, and I'd bet there are plenty of nuclear wannabes that would be thrilled to give Kim what little foreign exchange he needs in return for help on setting up nuclear weapons programs.

The ROK is going to be on the front lines of a war that is sure to to devastate their economy. Their natural inclination is to starve out the DPRK and avoid a war. Unfortunately I think it is far too late for that. And all three Kims have already demonstraed that they simply don't care if their population starves to death, they are going to do what they are going to do.

Quote:North Korea has kindly provided photographs of the warhead, just like they did with last September's test.  It took the better part of a year for the US government to admit what Kim had last time around, but it should have been obvious from the beginning.  Because of the classified nature of the Teller-Ulam geometry, it's not as obvious this time, but those of us who have independently figured out the Teller-Ulam geometry can figure it out.

What North Korea has is a two stage thermonuclear device.  It does not have the proper Teller-Ulam geometry, which is why the yield was only about 100kt rather than closer to the 1Mt range.  That said, most of its energy does come from fusion.

I'm not sure what this means, but I do have a very generic idea of what a two stage thermonuclear device is. Are you saying that the test yielded a 100kt result because they got their maths wrong or because their design is not maximally efficient?

Quote:It is easily small enough to mount in a warhead.  The only question at this point is whether North Korea's warheads can survive reentry and whether they have the fusing to cause an explosion at an appropriate altitude.  Most likely they do, after all their missile tests and with their having had conventional missiles for decades now.

I would say that if they don't have war heads for their weapon systems now, they will in short order. We do know that their conventional warheads do survive re-entry.

Quote:How do you think the path to war will proceed?

I would imagine that Kim would likely launch an attack on ROK and/or Japan first. Both having a formal treaty of alliance with the US would drag us in--unless of course an alliance with the US isn't worth the paper it is written on. Remember this is someone who threatens the world with nukes at least once a week.

 

Quote: My concern is that war with North Korea isn't inevitable, and the McMasters of the world manage to convince Trump to accept North Korea as a nuclear power.

North Korea doesn't act like any other nuclear power so there is no reason to delay. Russia doesn't threaten to nuke its neighbors once a week. Neither does China, India, Pakistan, Israel, or for that matter Iran or Saudi Arabia (as it is assumed that both have some nukes already). They would be a nuclear power of a completely different sort. Also you can call McMaster many things but pacifist isn't one of them.

 

Quote: Then Iran gets back into the game,

Iran never left the game and anyone who says that they did is either a moron, or is delusional. If they don't already have a device hidden in their mountainous country then they are almost certainly working on one. I don't care what deal they signed, they cannot be trusted.

Quote: and Saudi Arabia

It is believed that if Saudi Arabia has a nuclear weapon, they bought it lock, stock and barrel bought it from someone. That is their typical modus operandi

Quote:and Turkey,

Is a NATO power so they already have our arsenal to protect them, they don't need to waste money on their own. Unless of course you're saying that an alliance with the US isn't worth the paper it is written on.

Quote:and Myanmar

Would be invaded by India PDQ. Burma (because I refuse to call that country by that ridiculous and unpronounceable name) is not as advanced as India or Pakistan and India can take them out as there is little reason to accept a nuclear power at their back door. Also there is no indication that the Burmese government is even interested as that would almost certainly get the attention of India.

Quote:and Venezuela

Is in chaos, so is in no position to develop a weapon and unless the price of oil rises substantially doesn't have the money to buy one.

Quote: and a bunch of others, and sooner or later someone uses one, and then people start using them regularly.  Eventually some regional nuclear war escalates into a global one, and whoever has the last nuke wins.  And I'm far from certain that will be us, since we have too many interests that will require our using them earlier than, say, Russia will have to.

That sounds like an argument for nipping a problem in the bud if I ever heard one.