06-25-2017, 11:31 AM
I'm new to this forum, but I wanted to throw some ideas out there. I remember posting in a similar forum way back in 2006 and people back then thought that we were in a 4th turning. I disagreed at the time and said it was still the 3rd turning. Back then the argument was over where we are. At least that debate is over now. We are clearly in the Crisis 4th turning.
If you're reading this forum, clearly you understand that the established conventional wisdom is based on post-WW2 institutions/conventions, and we should be throwing that out the window. By definition, fourth turnings re-make that. I'm kind of an outside the box thinker and love thinking about where things are going. For the 2016 presidential election, I was only wrong about 2 states (Wisconsin & New Hampshire) for the record, so I pay a lot of attention to politics but really try not to live in a bubble and stay realistic. I had it at Trump 300, Clinton 238 going into election day.
For the 2018 midterms, the map is extremely favorable to Republicans because the Senators up for re-election are those who won in 2012 and before that in 2006. Both 2006 and 2012 were very good Democratic years, so the map has a lot of them running for re-election. That sets the stage for things we know. We don't know what the political environment will be like. Unless it's extremely unfavorable for the Republicans, then the Republicans will hold both the Senate and House.
Additionally, 3 Supreme Court justices are advanced in age. Breyer is 78. Kennedy is 80. Ginsburg is 84. The average retirement age over the last 40 years has been 79. It's quite likely 2 of them will step down and Trump will name their replacements. Maybe only 1. Maybe all three.
Currently, there are 4 liberals on the court and 3 conservatives with Kennedy a swing vote and Gorsuch an unknown. If you look at his record, Kennedy is actually kind of libertarian, so liberals have the majority on social issues and conservatives usually do on economic issues (Roberts is a bit shaky sometimes - really only Alito and Thomas are solid conservatives, too early to tell where Gorsuch lies but most think he'll be a conservative).
But let's run through a scenario. Say Kennedy steps down this year and Ginsburg does in 2019 when she's 86 due to poor health. The Court is then a 6-3 majority for conservatives. Let's say that Trump or maybe Pence wins re-election in 2020 primarily because of all the rage on the Left that middle america is sick of. Or maybe the Democratic base nominates someone out of touch with the center of the country. Imagine the reaction on the Left if all this has occurred: Trump has stacked the Supreme Court with conservatives, Republicans win in the 2018 midterms, Trump wins re-election in 2020, etc.
Then, the right will be emboldened to bring cases to the Supreme Court. Things like right to work are imposed nationwide. What's the response in California going to be? You can definitely see a succession movement gaining a lot of steam around 2021. What if they hold a referendum to secede? What if Roe v Wade is overturned and riots ensue? Should California actually secede the nation would take a hard turn to the right. Absent California, there would be 483 electoral votes with 242 needed to win. Should Republicans only need 242 then they would win a lot more often, and Democrats would be hopelessly in the minority in the House. We might be looking at a situation where the Republicans become the dominant political party, which is the norm in American History (for one party to be dominant and the other to win occasionally). But who knows, it all might backfire and Democrats could surge ahead to be the dominant party going forward. Too early to say.
On other fronts, the way that university education runs is definitely going to change in this 4th turning/1st turning. The model of everyone going to college established in the last 1st turning is not working. The cost of a college education is so high while the value of it is lower and lower since it's becoming more widespread and dumbed down. The internet is also a big factor. You can learn more on the Internet for free than at school. So this model of education might drastically change to something more workable with a lot fewer people going to college and the cost much lower than it is today.
Another wild card is Islamic terrorism. Islam was a powerful empire for 1300 years until after world war 1 when it was defeated along with Germany. Historically, Islam has always been a combined religious and political system. The idea of separation of church and state is foreign to their culture. Islam is trying to re-assert itself on the world stage, and the cultural depravity of the West is creating an opportunity for them. Most Westerners apologize for their heritage, culture, and history, which projects weakness, particularly in Europe. It's highly likely that terrorism will increase in frequency and intensity overs the remainder of this 4th turning, and then the public will demand action.
This might be the external threat that galvanizes the public to unite (65-70% of them anyways - don't expect the Left to go along) to confront this threat. This crisis period is rapidly waking people up to the reality of the situation. 10 years ago everyone was saying that Islam is a religion of peace. Today, most people sense that there is a problem. Probably in another 10 years that idea might be laughable, especially in Europe. America is more protected due to the oceans surrounding America.
Interesting times that we live in...
If you're reading this forum, clearly you understand that the established conventional wisdom is based on post-WW2 institutions/conventions, and we should be throwing that out the window. By definition, fourth turnings re-make that. I'm kind of an outside the box thinker and love thinking about where things are going. For the 2016 presidential election, I was only wrong about 2 states (Wisconsin & New Hampshire) for the record, so I pay a lot of attention to politics but really try not to live in a bubble and stay realistic. I had it at Trump 300, Clinton 238 going into election day.
For the 2018 midterms, the map is extremely favorable to Republicans because the Senators up for re-election are those who won in 2012 and before that in 2006. Both 2006 and 2012 were very good Democratic years, so the map has a lot of them running for re-election. That sets the stage for things we know. We don't know what the political environment will be like. Unless it's extremely unfavorable for the Republicans, then the Republicans will hold both the Senate and House.
Additionally, 3 Supreme Court justices are advanced in age. Breyer is 78. Kennedy is 80. Ginsburg is 84. The average retirement age over the last 40 years has been 79. It's quite likely 2 of them will step down and Trump will name their replacements. Maybe only 1. Maybe all three.
Currently, there are 4 liberals on the court and 3 conservatives with Kennedy a swing vote and Gorsuch an unknown. If you look at his record, Kennedy is actually kind of libertarian, so liberals have the majority on social issues and conservatives usually do on economic issues (Roberts is a bit shaky sometimes - really only Alito and Thomas are solid conservatives, too early to tell where Gorsuch lies but most think he'll be a conservative).
But let's run through a scenario. Say Kennedy steps down this year and Ginsburg does in 2019 when she's 86 due to poor health. The Court is then a 6-3 majority for conservatives. Let's say that Trump or maybe Pence wins re-election in 2020 primarily because of all the rage on the Left that middle america is sick of. Or maybe the Democratic base nominates someone out of touch with the center of the country. Imagine the reaction on the Left if all this has occurred: Trump has stacked the Supreme Court with conservatives, Republicans win in the 2018 midterms, Trump wins re-election in 2020, etc.
Then, the right will be emboldened to bring cases to the Supreme Court. Things like right to work are imposed nationwide. What's the response in California going to be? You can definitely see a succession movement gaining a lot of steam around 2021. What if they hold a referendum to secede? What if Roe v Wade is overturned and riots ensue? Should California actually secede the nation would take a hard turn to the right. Absent California, there would be 483 electoral votes with 242 needed to win. Should Republicans only need 242 then they would win a lot more often, and Democrats would be hopelessly in the minority in the House. We might be looking at a situation where the Republicans become the dominant political party, which is the norm in American History (for one party to be dominant and the other to win occasionally). But who knows, it all might backfire and Democrats could surge ahead to be the dominant party going forward. Too early to say.
On other fronts, the way that university education runs is definitely going to change in this 4th turning/1st turning. The model of everyone going to college established in the last 1st turning is not working. The cost of a college education is so high while the value of it is lower and lower since it's becoming more widespread and dumbed down. The internet is also a big factor. You can learn more on the Internet for free than at school. So this model of education might drastically change to something more workable with a lot fewer people going to college and the cost much lower than it is today.
Another wild card is Islamic terrorism. Islam was a powerful empire for 1300 years until after world war 1 when it was defeated along with Germany. Historically, Islam has always been a combined religious and political system. The idea of separation of church and state is foreign to their culture. Islam is trying to re-assert itself on the world stage, and the cultural depravity of the West is creating an opportunity for them. Most Westerners apologize for their heritage, culture, and history, which projects weakness, particularly in Europe. It's highly likely that terrorism will increase in frequency and intensity overs the remainder of this 4th turning, and then the public will demand action.
This might be the external threat that galvanizes the public to unite (65-70% of them anyways - don't expect the Left to go along) to confront this threat. This crisis period is rapidly waking people up to the reality of the situation. 10 years ago everyone was saying that Islam is a religion of peace. Today, most people sense that there is a problem. Probably in another 10 years that idea might be laughable, especially in Europe. America is more protected due to the oceans surrounding America.
Interesting times that we live in...