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The theory of human evolution and the 80-year cycle
#21
So, Theojm do you suggest the generational cycle existed since the beginnings of Homo sapiens?

I suppose it started with free society, which in practice means renaissance Europe.

Tribal societies had constant 3T, so to say, since there was neither order in society nor desire for it. The state of constant chaos was taken for granted In such conditions, most people evolved civic traits: focus on conformity and community rather than individualism, practical concerns rather than idealism. Only shamans represented the prophetic archetype.

When the first civilized societies emerged, there finally was peace and the peace was the first 1T. But these societies were tyrannies. There was no possibility of an awakening, because it would be suppressed by the government and condemned by the priesthood. Western civilization was however different. The forces of tyranny were never as strong here as they were in Asia. Mediaeval Europe was in theory subjugated by universal papal sovereignty, but in practice any local king, or even any stronger aristocrat had a lot of autonomy. This gave the rising merchant and artisan classes a lot of wiggle room. Awakenings became possible and the cycle started going. Couldn't the Renaissance be the first awakening?

It would be entertaining to research whether other relatively free, but civilized societies like ancient Athens or ancient Israel had a generational cycle.
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#22
(09-25-2018, 12:34 PM)Bill the Piper Wrote: So, Theojm do you suggest the generational cycle existed since the beginnings of Homo sapiens?

I suppose it started with free society, which in practice means renaissance Europe.

Tribal societies had constant 3T, so to say, since there was neither order in society nor desire for it. The state of constant chaos was taken for granted In such conditions, most people evolved civic traits: focus on conformity and community rather than individualism, practical concerns rather than idealism. Only shamans represented the prophetic archetype.

When the first civilized societies emerged, there finally was peace and the peace was the first 1T. But these societies were tyrannies. There was no possibility of an awakening, because it would be suppressed by the government and condemned by the priesthood. Western civilization was however different. The forces of tyranny were never as strong here as they were in Asia. Mediaeval Europe was in theory subjugated by universal papal sovereignty, but in practice any local king, or even any stronger aristocrat had a lot of autonomy. This gave the rising merchant and artisan classes a lot of wiggle room. Awakenings became possible and the cycle started going. Couldn't the Renaissance be the first awakening?

It would be entertaining to research whether other relatively free, but civilized societies like ancient Athens or ancient Israel had a generational cycle.

The existence of the cycle in in highly regimented societies has always been an issue.  Personally, I strongly doubt it, and for many of the reasons you already listed.  For example, in societies that are dictated by a religious code and attending dogma, how do the turnings generate?  Each generation is raised in accordance with "the teachings" so differentiation is muted to the point of nonexistence.  The rise of the merchants seems right to me as a point of departure, though rigid monarchial regimes were not good examples even then.  The post-Renaissance societies are certainly covered.

FWIW, the study of cycles in ancient societies was undertaken at length by a poster on the old forum whose name I've forgotten (it was McGibbens or something similar).  The arguments were mildly persuasive, but only that.  Mike Alexander, who posts here occasionally as Mikebert, followed that closely.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#23
(09-25-2018, 12:34 PM)Bill the Piper Wrote: So, Theojm do you suggest the generational cycle existed since the beginnings of Homo sapiens?

I suppose it started with free society, which in practice means renaissance Europe.

Tribal societies had constant 3T, so to say, since there was neither order in society nor desire for it. The state of constant chaos was taken for granted In such conditions, most people evolved civic traits: focus on conformity and community rather than individualism, practical concerns rather than idealism. Only shamans represented the prophetic archetype.

When the first civilized societies emerged, there finally was peace and the peace was the first 1T. But these societies were tyrannies. There was no possibility of an awakening, because it would be suppressed by the government and condemned by the priesthood. Western civilization was however different. The forces of tyranny were never as strong here as they were in Asia. Mediaeval Europe was in theory subjugated by universal papal sovereignty, but in practice any local king, or even any stronger aristocrat had a lot of autonomy. This gave the rising merchant and artisan classes a lot of wiggle room. Awakenings became possible and the cycle started going. Couldn't the Renaissance be the first awakening?

It would be entertaining to research whether other relatively free, but civilized societies like ancient Athens or ancient Israel had a generational cycle.

Consider India. The Indian historian Prabhat Sarkar (1919-1990) suggested a social cycle in which various occupational groups rule out of necessity in a predictable cycle. Civilization begins when a warrior elite of soldiers and police establish order that replaces the anarchic failure of primitive life (hunter-gatherers, herdsmen) who do few things well. The warrior elite establishes personal responsibility, property rights, familial responsibilities, and law and order upon a culture that, well, isn't much of a culture. Maybe population pressure has made the hunter-gatherer way of life inadequate even for keeping people out of hunger, let alone resolving the frequent feuds or controlling the worst people in their midst. The warriors might introduce a harsh law that establishes a well-performed hanging of someone who uses his spear to subdue a person who has a bit more to eat instead of killing an antelope or wresting some fish from the stream. There might be conflicts with neighboring tribes, and winning the skirmishes might depend upon organizing bands to deter or defeat marauders who might enter the tribal domain to seize a windfall of food. Warriors might also establish dwellings that might form defensive positions and storehouses, and as such they become builders.

Organization makes life more complicated; nobody wants to drill for fighting, obey commands, refrain from theft and rape, or pay taxes. War may not seem to make life safer, but it is a necessity against warlike tribes.

So what is the problem? Although fierce and powerful, the warriors do not naturally go to record-keeping, codification of laws, or objective justice involving disputes. They are unwilling to contemplate any purpose or meaning in life. They might be inept at healing the wounds of injured soldiers. They leave such responsibilities to thinkers -- the intellectuals. Such people are priests, record-keepers, physicians, teachers, engineers, scientists, and creative people. The warriors may build rickety palisades, but they will need architects to establish those that have some permanence.  They will need record-keepers to monitor the stores and keep tabs on those who pay and owe taxes. They will need teachers to preserve the lore that won battles in the past. Artists and musicians will make life more tolerable, and story tellers to remind people of recent and eventually ancient stories.

The intellectual world is richer in its ways, but intellectuals are not the innocent thinkers that one might hope for. The priests start having their arguments and start deciding who is good and who is a damnable heretic. So what is next? Commerce and industry. People start making desirable things. Division of labor begins. But -- society becomes increasingly inequitable. People try to find ways in which to make incomes without taking chances with injury or death, without learning, without developing skills, and without making investments or cultivating customers. The capitalists (acquisitors) accommodate this and allow the growth of a numerically-large class of proles. But the proles are often lazy, stupid, uncreative, gullible, and violent. People often shoved into the role of a proletariat become angry and resentful if they have the ability to do something else.  The age when the proles are the largest part of society begins to resemble the chaotic, violent, primitive world except in its technologies.

The cycle begins when the Warriors re-establish order.

Sarkar does not say how long each part of the cycle will last. The primitive world of hunter-gatherers seems like an anarchic, violent, debauched 3T, as did the Roaring Twenties. The warrior age is an unqualified 4T in which people build big and do little original thinking, and this feeds into the 1T. Intellectuals take over in the middle of a 1T and start turning on each other in the start of a 2T. Acquisitors start solving problems that intellectuals cannot solve (or refuse to solve because they are debating how many angels on the head of a pin in the middle of an Awakening. Finally yjr Acqusitors start cultivating the proles late in a 3T, and things get depraved and debauched.

But those are analogies. America has been in an Age of Acquisitors since the founding of the political system. The generational cycle might overlap Sarkar's cycle. This said, things have become increasingly corrupt and vulgar. I am tempted to believe that Dubya and Trump exemplify practices that discredit the Acquisitors. Obama may have been a respite, but he did not reverse the trend. It could be that he was unable to reverse the trend. Trump is a possible fusion of acquisitive greed and prole taste.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#24
(09-25-2018, 12:34 PM)Bill the Piper Wrote: So, Theojm do you suggest the generational cycle existed since the beginnings of Homo sapiens?

Yes and no. It probably developed side-by-side with the development of communication, from about 70,000 - 50,000 years ago.

Think about the MeToo-movement. It couldn't happen without communication, but then again, it could happen without communication. Think about chimps, they just beat the idiot or abandon the one who behaves badly or too much differently than the rest of the pack. This way the best behavioral genes pass on, and the pack becomes more civil with each generation. We don't accept strange behavior (or looks either). It's a "purification" process.

This is what is happening today, the purification: In China there are millions of Muslims being oppressed and sent to "conformation camps", where they have to sign a document saying they will abandon all their religious stances of Islam. You've probably heard of Hitler, he had a dream about a pure white race with only the "best" individuals ruling the world. Rome demanded good behavior from its subjects all over Europe & Middle-East, telling that only the ones with best behavior will get to go to heaven.

This evolution of behavior has been possible due to the advanced communication skills of homo sapiens. Ask yourself what is evolution? It's about getting "better", more adaptable to your surroundings. By selection of the best mating partners. Homo sapiens became highly specialized in rooting out bad behavior since advanced communication was invented, therefore we're the only species that can enhance our societies behavior with huge leaps. And we do, globally. Going back to the Me Too-movement, now the people who have behaved very badly towards women will be shamed, so their possibilities to have offspring is diminished. And the behavior for all others changes. And if it doesn't, you genes aren't passed on as likely as for a person with the "good" manners.

We're becoming more civil because civilizations thrive, they're the best solution for our DNA to thrive in, the winning formula one might say. Group evolution of homo sapiens. This was enabled by ever increasing advances in speech, facial expressions, rhythm, symbols and writing.


But how did all this become a cycle and do other animals show similar cyclical characteristics?

I'm going to contact a few chimp researchers to ask what kind of intervals there are for chimp wars and other group behavior. Because it would be important to know can our cyclical behavior be found in other animals too. It could be buried deep inside every DNA for species with communication skills. (But then again, almost all animals are able to communicate with others in their species with at least touch/movement/scent and even pheromones... Even we are not really aware of the pheromones we emit. Communication without our own consent. Tongue )

Ant colonies are one other thing I'm going to look at next. Some ants even go to war. So that might give some clues.
(If ants could communicate like humans, what kind of societies and science could they build in a million years?)
[Image: 600px-Figure-3-3.jpg]
We could draw similar schematics of the way homo sapiens has formed communities, although we today have much, much more complex structures.

Ant colonies have a specific way of working. And they have cycles. (Do the cycles include behavioral changes? I'm pretty sure they do, maybe through hormones?)
[Image: 400px-Figure-3-2.jpg]


(09-25-2018, 12:34 PM)Bill the Piper Wrote: I suppose it started with free society, which in practice means renaissance Europe.

If the behavioral model comes from the DNA and other animals have it too, then I would say it didn't start with free society, but it came evident with it.

Through emotions we understand that something is good or bad. Our emotions are better communicated with advanced communication. A high supply of different words, just like I'm using them right now to convey this message to everyone else here on this forum. Maybe even tell a joke to make us have something common to laugh at, to bind us together, to enhance the possibility of transferring these ideas of mine to you in an understandable and coherent way.

But it's not just about words and symbols. We also have a highly developed facial expression system, we can communicate with music, paintings, movies and poems. We have learned all these skills to enhance the ways we can express our thoughts & feelings. The best movie stars and singers are highly respected all around the world, especially in the western cultures. As are athletes. The artists enhance our communication skills and the sports guys enhance our physical genes. By being popular you more likely have offspring.


(09-25-2018, 12:34 PM)Bill the Piper Wrote: Tribal societies had constant 3T, so to say, since there was neither order in society nor desire for it. The state of constant chaos was taken for granted In such conditions, most people evolved civic traits: focus on conformity and community rather than individualism, practical concerns rather than idealism. Only shamans represented the prophetic archetype.

You could be right. But then again, there is at least 50,000 years after advanced communication (speech, facial expressions, rhythm) developed, so there have been many chances for tribes of the size of 100 -10 000 to form and play out the roles of four generations, from hero to prophet. Some humans lived out to be 75 or 80 even in prehistoric times. Our long life span isn't a new thing in our DNA, it's been there for tens of thousands of years. This is why we have strong archetypes inside our brains, the play has been played several times before.

Today the archetypes fight our societal values, as men and women are becoming more equal. But then again, the archetypes are slowly maturing too, but they're always lagging behind. This creates discomfort and stress. And with the disappearing values that used to come from the church(es), no replacing values from a coherent unified culture...This is what is happening in the USA. This time we've strayed so far from the archetypes with all the advances in sexual sciences, that there is division even between men! And with division I mean clear behavioral differences between men, some homosexuals are beaten by straight men. Why? Because they act differently from the archetypes.


(09-25-2018, 12:34 PM)Bill the Piper Wrote: When the first civilized societies emerged, there finally was peace and the peace was the first 1T. But these societies were tyrannies. There was no possibility of an awakening, because it would be suppressed by the government and condemned by the priesthood. Western civilization was however different. The forces of tyranny were never as strong here as they were in Asia. ....Couldn't the Renaissance be the first awakening?

Yes, I agree with everything you just said there, but I still think there have been thousands of small awakenings in the history of homo sapiens. We've evolved so much more than chimps. It's a huge leap, physiologically and behaviorally. You can't teach a chimp to behave civilized, although you can teach him a lot about communication.

My question is that how much of this evolution of our behavior is in group evolution and how much of it is in our DNA. If I was placed in year 20,000BC to a homo sapiens tribe, how much differently would I behave, even though I would be raised by them. Would I still have the higher communication skills or would I only have a beautiful singing voice due to the evolved throat and voice capabilities we have today? Would my societal values be from today or would I be just like a caveman behaviorally?


(09-25-2018, 12:34 PM)Bill the Piper Wrote: It would be entertaining to research whether other relatively free, but civilized societies like ancient Athens or ancient Israel had a generational cycle.

That would be a fascinating subject. I'm afraid it would be very difficult to research and form any well opinionated statements. Maybe if there were some 4th turning style behavioral reforms, they could possibly be identified? Or awakenings? Singular events are easier to find, shifts in moods are probably very hard to find.

And if you end up doing some research, I'd like to hear back from the results! I'm in law school for the last year now, and I was thinking that I might study some legal history, at least to get a good overview of the laws from 3000BC to today. And laws are one thing that were written down often, so there is a good amount of material to go through. I'm not sure if laws could show the cycles in motion, as laws normally change slowly over time. But maybe going through years 1700-2000 could end up showing some patterns. I have to think about how the different turnings could be visible in the law books. Laws reflect our values (although free democratic societies are a relatively new thing, so the historic laws do also reflect the wishes of the leaders & church).


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In the end I feel like there is an answer to all of this. We know so little about our brains that it's scary. Scientists have recently mapped out systems and diagrams on how the brain is wired and what systems talk to other systems. The brain is much like a logical computer, we've created computers very much like our brain works, and now we're connecting the computers through the internet like the brain is connected.

The most relevant part starts at time 15:20.




I think humans are playing out the same thing as our brains, we are connecting to each other in the most efficient way possible, using all possible ways of communication. From smoke signals to telephones, from sticks in the sand to letters on a computer screen. It's all about communication and evolution drives us to communicate better, to form societies. It's all about the evolution of the mind & the body. And it is happening right today for example with Me Too, NFL kneelings and the "Lock her up!" chants.

Everything we do is a part of who we are genetically and what we have witnessed through our senses. It's a mix of DNA and perception. We play out our parts in life, and in the fourth turning we tell others what our opinion is, which forms the consensus inside our own tribe (about behavioral norms). Only after this is war possible. If there is no consensus, there could be civil war. Without civil war there is no consensus and the tribe would fall apart in the end, hurting everyone and they'd all end up overrun by another tribe. Coherency is needed in order to survive, this is what nationalism is about.


This is the purpose of the fourth turning. And with weapons of mass destruction at hand, I am a little afraid what will happen if we're still slaves to our basic inclinations towards war, if the fourth turning is real.

I'm not actually 100% convinced the 80-year cycle is real and real, but much of the evidence points to it being real. And it is a fascinating subject because it forces you to think about today, 1930, ancient Rome and 50,000BC all at the same time. It also forces you to think about the origins of life on earth, evolution, behavior between cultures and behavior of different species. All areas of life are included: morals, politics, faith, money, family and personal growth. Thus there should be a huge amount of evidence to be found if the 80-year cycle is real.
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#25
(09-25-2018, 01:22 PM)David Horn Wrote: The existence of the cycle in in highly regimented societies has always been an issue.  Personally, I strongly doubt it, and for many of the reasons you already listed.  For example, in societies that are dictated by a religious code and attending dogma, how do the turnings generate?  Each generation is raised in accordance with "the teachings" so differentiation is muted to the point of nonexistence.

Well, the religions are almost always much based on the archetypes, so it's not like they're not representative of some basic values we have. Or maybe the religions created those values? We had the need to believe in something supernatural because we were afraid? And we still have the need to explain the unknown, like what black holes are or why  nationalism is rising again.


(09-25-2018, 01:22 PM)David Horn Wrote: The rise of the merchants seems right to me as a point of departure, though rigid monarchial regimes were not good examples even then.

The merchants increased communications between villages and countries, that was a big step for group evolution. Influences started pouring in from other regions, and the world started to come together, form even bigger areas of cultural coherence where people had an unifying motivation to work together as a society. Countries formed as did laws and governance. In 3000BC there was a pretty sophisticated system in place in Egypt. Communication helped spread these laws to everyone and explain the different systems of the society to new scholars. Huge empires started forming like Rome, which reached is unified influence to all parts of the vast empire. This was group evolution at its best. Rome had science, philosophy, even sports. Much like Athens once. All aspects of human evolution were fulfilled, that's why they succeeded.


This is USA today. It's like Greece once was, a country newly founded on the principle of freedom of speech and almost total freedom. It's common cultural and spiritual heritage has always been splintered, so together they create a new common culture, in which the four turnings are truly visible to everyone who cares to look at them. And they have come more evidently visible as true freedom has reached all US citizens through end of slavery and women's right movements. USA is the melting pot of all humanity. USA has created its own culture and is now spreading it across the globe, quite possibly synchronizing the cycles across the world.
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#26
Regarding ancient Israel, I am quite convinced that:

Abraham leaving Ur is a story of a middle-aged Prophetic man, who leaves the decadence of a 3T city to bring up his Civic children in relatively peaceful and orderly conditions. The primitive Israelite community might be nomadic at that time, since the Bible doesn't mention Abraham being ruler of a city, but only a chieftain of a tribe. Regardless of that, Abraham and his mates were determined to set up a moral community, based on a personal relationship with God. Sounds like what all Prophetic generations are doing during the 4T. Isaac should have grown up as a Civic. Perhaps he did, but the Bible gives too little details. Note however how the cycle was disrupted by migration to Egypt and subjugation to the Pharaoh's tyranny.

Moses represents another Prophetic generation, and there is another migration. Moses is anxious that Egyptian decadence might contaminate Israel. The 40 years of wandering (probably through Somalia and the Arabian peninsula, rather than straight from Egypt to Israel) were necessary so that the Nomadic generation died off and only new Civics entered the promised land. Strauss and Howe actually mention the Exodus in their book!

As for Athens, Plato could represent a Prophetic generation (more like the missionaries than boomers) with his otherworldly concerns and austere morality, while Aristotle looks like a Civic with his conventional morality and practical, scientific interests.
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#27
Over  50% of the Bible's texts are changed from original, so I wouldn't put much weight on it when investigating the possible existance of the cycle in history. The Bible was mentioned in the Fourth Turning book because it hosts the archetypal characters, not because it has accurate historical information. The Bible mirrors our beliefs, fills in the gaps in our knowledge (or did at least before science), that's some of the reasons why it's been so widespread.

When looking at old or new civilizations, Athens or Rome, one has to look at leaders who are voted in by elections (or otherwise very popular as leader). Other persons of interest can be looked at, but making sense of single individuals, who don't have a huge following, is not very fruitful. It doesn't tell much of the times, if you can't get the "peoples will" behind someone you're looking at. You have to try to find out what the majority of people held as important. And also what anomalies there were and at what times.
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#28
Another thought: in a world of constant warfare, the cycle would be constantly reset. An isolated island tribe could have a regular generational cycle. But if there are more tribes, it's not likely that their cycles will be in sync. Tribe A might enter the 1T, but instead of proceeding to 2T it could be reset to 4T by tribe B who is just going through that phase and decided to invade.
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#29
I'm not sure about that the cycle would reset, but I've had the same thoughts of different tribes being in different phases of the cycles. Wars could possibly reset the cycles so that they become more in sync between neighboring tribes, sure, but this would have to be a big war. Assimilation of another tribe would get rid of their cycle, and enforce the cycle of the growing tribe. And since assimilation is what I think happened to the Neanderthals and Denisovans, their possible cycles disappeared without a trace.

Wars do happen all the time in history, but their nature and causes vary hugely. Most are wars of "conquest", the stuff that chimpanzees do. But since the cycle is based in our psychology, it could be true, but I still doubt it. My view is that the cycle is probably more precise than even Howe & Strauss view it, since they saw it being over 100 years at some points.

Of course the historical events that happen (due to the changes in generational dynamics) can vary when they actualize, and chance has everything to do with this, but still the cycle is there in the background. I believe it is based in our biology, it could even be based on quantum physics. If that sounds a bit far fetched, and I agree that is does, think about the rule of thirds. It seems to be the constant rule in quantum physics, and it also is a rule for what we view as aesthetically pleasant. Think about it. Quantum rule is what we think looks nice, it is built into us, homo sapiens art follows this rule, or at least has done so in the last 2000-3000 years.  How can this be?

It could be that we're used to it from looking at the symmetry of nature, but I'm not sure, since music is also math. And phi (golden ration number) is also in music as well as visual arts. I cannot imagine how anyone could say there is not a direct connection between music, visual arts and quantum physics. It's just impossible to deny.




And a better presentation of Fibonacci numbers and Phi can be found here. So I refuse to believe that mathematics don't have a profound affect on our everyday biological life, whether we realize it or not. And therefore it has to affect the group evolution of humans, especially when you think that viewing large groups of humans cuts out the "edges", you get the generic behavior, a mean. It does sound a bit depressing and deterministic, but I think this wide viewpoint has to be taken to truly start to understand the possibility of cycles.

Information transfer in the universe is based on waves, like "physical" soundwaves. And in the quantum world (light) those waves are only probabilities, not actual physical particles. If the double slit experiments isn't known to you, here's an explanation:





My grandpa, who lived out to be 103 years (1889-1991), used to say that "everything is wave movement", and he had a long life experience (he had a law degree, not a historian or mathematician, but very good general knowledge of the world). I have no reason not to believe someone with such an prolonged view of history.

An open, free society with homo sapiens who act out their psychological inclinations shows this to be true. Just like a sophisticated painter would use the rule of thirds, we play out our own parts, just like Howe & Strauss said. We are the face of the evolution, as evolution is the face of mathematics and chance. So the 80-year cycle may not be even come evolution, it may well be from atom scale or quantum scale, which means that evolution and living things are only the "tool" that play out these mathematical laws and constants.

The one thing that is definitely "biological" are the amount of years, one generation, as it defines the frequency of the cycle. Amplitude of the cycle is defined by how free the society is, as more freedom allows the cycle to be more strong, as we play out our tendencies. The cycle is what made homo sapiens thrive over all others, as we gained the ability to be ourselves, free ourselves from the restraints of pre-judgement and indoctrination by religion.
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#30
Now imagine genetic engineering expands the average lifespan to, say, 500 years, but people still are able to have children at, say, 30. Would the cycle be 500 years long? The archetypes would change slowly, a Millennial's children would be still Millennials, although with a slightly different flavour. Or would people live through many cycles, and play their archetypal roles many times?
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#31
It's impossible to say how our psyche would react to a very long lifespan, even with good health, so your question highly hypothetical question. But nonetheless, it's a pretty good question to ask!


1) If the change would be sudden and ALL children would suddenly get a 500 year lifespan, show the growth patterns of today and reach "maturity" in the age
40... it would definitely mess up the cycle, as it is based on rejection of old values. This is a very difficult thing to think about because of all the dynamics and it would break nature's rules. Maybe the cycle would show signs of true change only once 125 years, not 20 years like today.

2) But lets say a pill was invented today that would allow us all to live to be 500, and most children would still be born when parents are about 20-30.
If the prolonging of lifespan would happen slowly over a 1000-10 000 years, the cycle would probably extend if the growth stages would be youth 0-125 years old, young adult 125-250 years, adults 250-375 and elders 375-500 years old. First of all, I would say it it would dampen the cycle's effects, since we'd probably learn from our mistakes after the first 80 years, if it would still be in effect after 1 or 2 new generations. But over thousands of years, the cycle would probably extend to 500 years and probably be watered down (lower highs and lows than today). So the frequency slows down, and so does the amplitude.

From this:
[Image: canvas.png]
To this:
[Image: canvas2.png]
Or not, maybe the amplitude would stay the same, but that could be too much of a strain for homo sapiens: Wars would be too long, spiritual awakenings could ruin the old good habits totally, anarchy of unraveling could do the same... So the dynamics could ruin everything if the adaptation isn't as slow as evolution has been.

Or maybe the evolution of homo sapiens has been in fact too fast in, especially in the last centuries..? Maybe the cycle is supposed to be there, but not have the force it has had especially during the last 100 years. Maybe we're not ready for it, maybe we took the "truth pill" too quickly?

I think the fastest and (perhaps easiest) way to find answers would be to find similar cycles from other animal behavior. That way one could see how other kinds of lifespans and rhythms of life affect the cycle. But again, a very good question, any good answers would prove to be most helpful for the theory.
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#32
(09-27-2018, 12:48 PM)Bill the Piper Wrote: Now imagine genetic engineering expands the average lifespan to, say, 500 years, but people still are able to have children at, say, 30. Would the cycle be 500 years long? The archetypes would change slowly, a Millennial's children would be still Millennials, although with a slightly different flavour. Or would people live through many cycles, and play their archetypal roles many times?

I don't see turnings lasting much longer than 20 years, because that's when one comes of age.  If you can argue for a longer period to maturity, then turnings might be that long.  We have argued in the past about the presence of two fully engaged generations of the archetype, but no one really had a great theory about that.  The consensus was: the absence of an engaged elder generation of any archetype is necessary for the development of emerging associated turning.  How would we be moving through this 4T if the GIs and Silents were still in abundance and fully engaged?
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#33
(Like I said, living reallllly long is a hypothesis we don't have to think about too much today. If science allows a big chunk of people to live over 100 years with their cognitive abilities intact, then this discussion could be fruitful. Until that happens, it would be wise to try to uncover the true nature of the 80-year cycle...)


Going back to the origins of the cycle, is it really so that no one has researched the possible biological roots of  the cycle? A cycle that pushes the animal society forward by building/reconstruction/birth -> inner/outer growth -> inner disputes/war.  I'm not saying that finding the cycle is easy, but if similar cycles would be found in animal societies, then it would become apparent that the cycle is evolutionary/biological. It would be a giant discovery that would shape the understanding about societies and ourselves as a species, even more than the discovery of natural selection in evolution by Rousseau (and Darwin too). At worst the discovery might lead to some "purification attempts" like holocaust if someone sees an opportunity to accelerate the development of homo sapiens, but this will be a growing ethical problem going forward anyways with the rise of gene manipulation and other technological advances.

I actually think that there should be something to be found, although buried deep, but since pretty much everything homo sapiens is/does can be found in other animals too, it would make sense that behavioral/societal cycles should be found in other animals! Am I wrong here, am I missing something important?


If the cycle is real, when was it born? 14 billion years ago (Big Bang), 4000 million ago (first life on earth), 1850 million years ago (Eukaryotic cells appear), 6,5 million years ago (First hominins), 50,000 years ago (the great leap of Homo sapiens) or 5000 years ago (or whenever bigger civilizations rose)? Or in some other time*? This is why taking a deeper look into animal societies is hugely important, can we find similar cyclical patterns related to societies/group behavior in other species than just Homo sapiens?


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* My personal guess is 14 billion years to 1850 million years ago. Or the great leap (which some have dated as far as 400,000 BC, birth of symbolism, or about 50,000 BC, advanced speech).
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#34
I couldn't follow too easily that Beethoven ted talk, although the narrator was an exceptional voice. But watching it I noticed a Fibonacci pattern in the scale. I usually think of the scale as 12 notes, but if you include the octave, then it's 13. A diatonic major or minor scale is 8 notes, with 5 full steps. And the 5th note is also significant as the dominant. And he goes on to discuss the third. Those are Fibonacci numbers.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#35
(09-29-2018, 12:01 AM)Theojm Wrote: (Like I said, living reallllly long is a hypothesis we don't have to think about too much today. If science allows a big chunk of people to live over 100 years with their cognitive abilities intact, then this discussion could be fruitful. Until that happens, it would be wise to try to uncover the true nature of the 80-year cycle...)


Going back to the origins of the cycle, is it really so that no one has researched the possible biological roots of  the cycle? A cycle that pushes the animal society forward by building/reconstruction/birth -> inner/outer growth -> inner disputes/war.  I'm not saying that finding the cycle is easy, but if similar cycles would be found in animal societies, then it would become apparent that the cycle is evolutionary/biological. It would be a giant discovery that would shape the understanding about societies and ourselves as a species, even more than the discovery of natural selection in evolution by Rousseau (and Darwin too). At worst the discovery might lead to some "purification attempts" like holocaust if someone sees an opportunity to accelerate the development of homo sapiens, but this will be a growing ethical problem going forward anyways with the rise of gene manipulation and other technological advances.

I actually think that there should be something to be found, although buried deep, but since pretty much everything homo sapiens is/does can be found in other animals too, it would make sense that behavioral/societal cycles should be found in other animals! Am I wrong here, am I missing something important?


If the cycle is real, when was it born? 14 billion years ago (Big Bang), 4000 million ago (first life on earth), 1850 million years ago (Eukaryotic cells appear), 6,5 million years ago (First hominins), 50,000 years ago (the great leap of Homo sapiens) or 5000 years ago (or whenever bigger civilizations rose)? Or in some other time*? This is why taking a deeper look into animal societies is hugely important, can we find similar cyclical patterns related to societies/group behavior in other species than just Homo sapiens?


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* My personal guess is 14 billion years to 1850 million years ago. Or the great leap (which some have dated as far as 400,000 BC, birth of symbolism, or about 50,000 BC, advanced speech).

How longer lifespans would affect the cycle is a good question. But comparing humans to animals is to go on the wrong track. We are much different from animals, and human life and evolution now is much more than physical, but social and cultural and political too. And technological. Animals do not evolve so quickly so that cycles can be seen in it.

Knowing as I do how closely the saeculum cycle is connected to astrology and the cycles of the planets, I think a true understanding of the cycle will lie in understanding our relationship to the cosmos, on a level of consciousness rather than just on a physical level. But then, quantum physics points us strongly toward this approach.

I don't know for sure, of course, but I suspect that if we live 500 years, that humans will go through a lot more cycles in their lives than we do now. As we evolve spiritually, we will be able to go through many births and rebirths. We may already experience something of a rebirth when we come of age. Prophets do especially, because they come of age in a 2T. Silents at least experienced a midlife crisis, and a rebirth in that age, because rebirths happen in 2Ts for those two archetypes-- prophets and adaptives. 

If we are all born, and then are reborn again, not as may happen now through reincarnation, but actually reborn many times within a long lifespan, with ALL generations thus able to experience a 2T awakening, and then face a crisis of seeking to make the new experiences real within the world, then the cycle may well still apply just as it does now, because we will continue to go through the cycles of birth, crisis, spirit death, and rebirth many times. 

This change could also happen, if the spiritual movements grow again, and humans grow in understanding of our experiences after life, between lives and in past lives. This would be a different way of spanning our lives over a longer period.

It may be a healthier cycle, because all generational archetypes can experience an awakening, and not just two of them, with the others puzzled and cut off from the experience and unable to relate; but also prophets and artists not led so far astray by the emotions and excesses of those experiences, with the realistic two generations left to try make the world work better in a practical way, even while lacking the guidance from the deeper experience of life that awakenings bring.

I think the current cycle is dysfunctional. Longer lifespans may be one way to make it work better. Now we swing between extremes, and forget much of what we have learned. We don't learn from history or the past, so we repeat it in a vicious cycle.

Understanding life, humanity and reality will require that the spiritual new age esoteric perspectives not be buried underneath the civic generations' amnesia about the spiritual experiences of prophet and artist types, and not submerged into an assumption that esoteric and spiritual knowledge is not necessary. It will require an integral view of humanity and the cosmos, as was emerging at the end of the 20th century, and is still around lurking--- beneath our time of obsession with technology and science, and also beneath our current obsession with unreason, alternative facts and conspiracy crap as well, btw. 

Integral philosophy is the key to this new synthesis, which will continue to emerge in the next 2T at least. One aspect of knowledge will not be submerged beneath the others, but all our faculties fully experienced and deployed to the best of our ability, and seen in their proper role.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#36
Eric the Green Wrote:If we are all born, and then are reborn again, not as may happen now through reincarnation, but actually reborn many times within a long lifespan, with ALL generations thus able to experience a 2T awakening, and then face a crisis of seeking to make the new experiences real within the world, then the cycle may well still apply just as it does now, because we will continue to go through the cycles of birth, crisis, spirit death, and rebirth many times.

Also, they may use biotech to re-organize their personalities, so that they won't be bored by being the same personality type for 500 years.
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#37
(09-29-2018, 03:35 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Those are Fibonacci numbers.

Yes they are, Fibonacci and Golden ratio are connected to each other and that can be seen in both physics and music. There is a strong connection to what we like to hear & see and how the universe is constructed. If someone could tell me why, it would be much appreciated. But this is straying a bit from the cycles, although I still think there is a connection to the quantum level. It would be nice to be a quantum physicist, but math was never something I was interested in before and I'm not that smart anyways. Shy


(09-29-2018, 04:06 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: But comparing humans to animals is to go on the wrong track. We are much different from animals, and human life and evolution now is much more than physical, but social and cultural and political too. And technological. Animals do not evolve so quickly so that cycles can be seen in it.

We have much in common with animals, we have the same kind of basic reactions, emotions and logical thinking as animals. I'm not sure if much intelligence is needed for the cycle to operate, as chimpanzees wage war on a regular basis too. Their attacks follow the same pattern and quite regular intervals. This is inside them, no speech is needed. They know what to do.

Chimps are also social, and politics rise from the combination of social and cultural behavior. If chimps had speech, I'm pretty darn sure they would develop the cultural side too very quickly. What I'm trying to say is that Homo sapiens advances in communication, which allowed us to take our emotions and cultural inclinations even further, which makes the 80-year cycle visible, but only after we started to get rid of the church. Other animals don't have religions to "hold them down" (although they might believe in the supernatural), so the cycle might be visible. And they're pretty much free to do what they want, although this varies very much between species.


(09-29-2018, 03:35 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Knowing as I do how closely the saeculum cycle is connected to astrology and the cycles of the planets, I think a true understanding of the cycle will lie in understanding our relationship to the cosmos, on a level of consciousness rather than just on a physical level. But then, quantum physics points us strongly toward this approach.

I don't know for sure, of course, but I suspect that if we live 500 years, that humans will go through a lot more cycles in their lives than we do now.

I agree that there is a good chance that at least some of that could be true, but how can you prove anything like that before the quantum world is fully understood? In the same manner as the atom scale is understood today, it could take decades, and I have no way of taking that route to do much research. I'm happy to hear an theories, but I still think that Homo sapiens probably cannot be the only species to show a cycle of group evolution, even though we could be the only ones to show it out really big time.

And even if a magic pill was found so we could live out much longer than we do today, it still would take deacdes for it to have any effect, and I don't think such pill will be invented for another 20-50 years. It's a fascinating tale, but we're far from this kind of a world... What I'm after is 1) trying to find historical evidence that the cycle exists and is 80-years and divided into four sections 2) trying to find similarities from other animals and 3) possibly unifying the theory to natural or quantum laws.

During these 1½ years after reading the Fourth Turning, the areas I've researched so far are history, human and chimp biology & behavior, physics and consciousness. I'm a bit suspicious of making too many assumptions about the future at this point, like what kind of turnings will we face after this 4h turning. I want to know more of the origins before trying to look too much into the future, and I'm still not 100% convinced that the cycle is even real. Maybe 80%, but I want to keep it that way, otherwise I might become too blind to see obvious things in my view.
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#38
Several cycles are possibly in operation. The generational cycle of Howe and Strauss recognize one relating human biology and personal development to political, economic, and cultural realities. The Kuznets cycle relates peaks and cycles of economic activity on roughly a 20-year pattern, recognizing panics of 1907, 1929, 1969, 1987, and 2008 (the recovery from World War II likely muted any panic). Put the generational cycle and the Kuznets cycle together, and one could have reasonably predicted that the Crash of 2008 would be a doozy. The Kondratieff cycle probably relates technological change to 45-60 years, short to long duration in careers. Sarkar has a theory relating the character of a society to the sorts of people who are the rulers, with a pattern of warriors (soldiers, police, and builders), intellectuals (priests, administrators, and creative people), acquisitors (entrepreneurs, traders, and brokers), and the workers (the proletariat)... with the proletariat showing no capacity for leadership unless individuals break from it, which I interpret as becoming the soldiers and police who take over and initiate a new age of warriors as rulers. One of Sarkar's pupils, Ravi Sarkar, suggested that the 'Age of Acquisitors' in America was becoming increasingly corrupt, vulgar, and chaotic... and doomed, back in the 1980s. We may have not gotten the Great Depression of 1990, but we did get an economic meltdown similar in magnitude (after a year and a half) to that meltdown beginning in 1929. More on that later.

The biggest cycle to which anyone can relate is of the civilization that, according to Toynbee, begins with pioneers of civilization breaking away from a primitive or wrecked order, making innovations that define a new civilization. Such people then spread their civilization through conquest or (more benignly) through cultural or technological diffusion. Centralization slowly develops, but room remains for innovation in technology, culture, and business techniques that allow life to become materially and culturally satisfying. Such requires some measure of local initiative... which dies with the establishment of the Universal State that fossilizes society in an effort to stop the decadence while encompassing the entire civilization. Examples of such Universal States include ancient Babylon, Pharaonic Egypt, the Roman Empire, several Chinese dynasties at their peaks of power, the Sassanid Empire of Persia, the Byzantine Empire, the Caliphate, three empires of the New World at the time of the Spanish conquest (Inca, Aztec, and what remained of the Maya civilization), the Mughal Raj, and the Japanese Empire. These are the sorts of societies that can say "We are the World", but not in a cheerful way. These societies suppress change and fossilize everything but the rot that ultimately destroys them. Our Western civilization has had some candidates to be the Universal State -- Inquisition-era Spain, the British Empire (which mercifully decided not to 'paint the world map Red, once a marker of the British Empire on world maps, the Soviet Union with its appeal to world Marxist revolution, and worst of all Nazi Germany. I wonder if Toynbee made a Freudian slip with his choice of the words "Universal State"...

Back to Sarkar. It is hard to imagine a political leader so vulgar and unlearned as Donald Trump, so cruel, and so elitist on economics. Trump is a symptom, and a logical consequence of the anti-intellectual Tea Party creating an opening for his sort of leader -- a demagogue who will not let facts or traditional decencies get in the way of telling the hollowest people in America exactly what they want to hear. If you want to preserve an Age of Acquisitors, this is the worst possible leader -- someone who makes a mockery of capitalism to the extent that it resembles a Marxist stereotype of capitalism. The American Revolution and the Constitutional era was the end of the dominance of intellectuals in American life, after which the acquisitors took over. The Age of Acquisitors could be approaching its end.

I do not quite get the mega-saeculum, but I recognize Arnold Toynbee for his general history which
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#39
(09-29-2018, 12:01 AM)Theojm Wrote: If the cycle is real, when was it born? 14 billion years ago (Big Bang), 4000 million ago (first life on earth), 1850 million years ago (Eukaryotic cells appear), 6,5 million years ago (First hominins), 50,000 years ago (the great leap of Homo sapiens) or 5000 years ago (or whenever bigger civilizations rose)? Or in some other time*? This is why taking a deeper look into animal societies is hugely important, can we find similar cyclical patterns related to societies/group behavior in other species than just Homo sapiens?

------
* My personal guess is 14 billion years to 1850 million years ago. Or the great leap (which some have dated as far as 400,000 BC, birth of symbolism, or about 50,000 BC, advanced speech).

I assume the cycle, as we understand it, began with the first advanced civilization.  Prior to that, life was dictated by superstition, and had no actual dynamic to it.  Without a dynamic to underscore change, there is no cycle.  Of course, that also argues for a limited range of cyclic activities too.  There are still societies that are not part of this reference frame, and may remain outside it for the foreseeable future.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#40
(09-29-2018, 05:45 AM)Bill the Piper Wrote:
Eric the Green Wrote:If we are all born, and then are reborn again, not as may happen now through reincarnation, but actually reborn many times within a long lifespan, with ALL generations thus able to experience a 2T awakening, and then face a crisis of seeking to make the new experiences real within the world, then the cycle may well still apply just as it does now, because we will continue to go through the cycles of birth, crisis, spirit death, and rebirth many times.

Also, they may use biotech to re-organize their personalities, so that they won't be bored by being the same personality type for 500 years.

Psychological biotech, I guess. Puzzling. I guess drugs and brain implants or other such interventions can accomplish that.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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