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Possible true reason for the 4 turnings! 80-year cycle explained, from epigenetics!
#1
It is epigenetics + environment -> hormones -> behavior. Add this to generational behavior and you have the 80-year cycle. This is it.

Genes control our basic biological structures and instincts, they change slowly, not much between generations. Epigenetics correlate with environment, even before birth, this is the key. This is the key to hormone levels and development of humans. Each generation correlates with the previous one, as Howe & Strauss tell us, and there is the 4 fold generational cycle that goes around, roughly at 2025-2005 | 2005-1985 | 1985-1965 | 1965-1945 | 1945-1925 and so on...). I hope everyone is following my train of thoughts so far.

The most obvious one is the 4th cycle, when oxytocin levels start to rise. Oxytocin is the love & war hormone. When under stress, oxytocin is released, which makes us bond even more with our family and friends, but on the other hand it deepens the wedge towards others. This leads to a unification of a tribe OR civil war. But not always, one must think of the hormonal activity as an incentive! When oxytocin is released a lot, we may fall in love or may not, that is the key. But more of oxytosin and the possibility increases. Now zoom out to the level of a city or a country, or a social network platform, and you see uniformity in humans. But in 2018, the division has progressed far, just like chimpanzees in Gombe, right before their own civil war:

[Image: chimp-network.png]

Above chart is how echo chambers are created, chimp-style.

The graph below is the grooming/taking sides from the same chimps, notice the grooming stage in the photo above, it causes the final rift between 1971-1972. What happens with increased grooming? Increased oxytocin levels!
[Image: chimp-grooming.jpg]


Oxytocin increaces also with stress, and when you do, you stick to the people who think like you do. It is the same as Homo sapiens, it is the rise of oxytocin that finally divides us. This is happening today in most western cultures, the divide, the echo chambers!  If the nation is unified enough, there still has to be some divide, and this is the rise of racism explained by hormones. It can be Jews, blacks, witches or gays, but there must be an opposite side when oxytocin levels are rising (also explains overprotective 4th turning child nurture). And the humans with the least developed frontal cortex (which controls reason) are generally most inclined to racism, because they are the most vulnerable to hormonal activity. Just like the same people often have the biggest amount of kids and use substances like alcohol and drugs the most.

Now look at witch hunts, their peak was ca. 1620 (cycle-wise 1620+80+80+80+80= 1940, holocaust at its worst).

[Image: witch-hunt.jpg]
We see first see the purification and then war (even though Europe was much more splintered than during WW2, no huge power/empire required for wars). Combine these graphs together and add the chimp graph, and what do you get?

[Image: witch-hunt-chimps-combined.jpg]

On the chimp level grooming leads to oxytocin rising -> sides chosen (arrivals) - civil war  (in this case). In the case of witch hunts there are wars and civil wars. One of the biggest "civil wars" in Europe started in Bohemia from an uprising during 1618-1620, the 30-years war. It wasn't so much of a war between nations but ideologies, the protestants vs. catholics. Two groups, the old red vs. blue fight. It doesn't matter who is right or wrong as we see today with "alternate truths". (When Rudy Giuliani recently said by mistake "The truth isn't the truth", he hit the nail on the head. That is what the fourth turning is all about.)


This "coming together against others" isn't only seen in witch-hunts / racism / nationalism / genocides. Think about the #metoo movement: Unification, bad habits are under attack, new standards are reached at some point, unifying the tribe/town/nation/culture. And #metoo isn't alone, there are the movements against gun violence and of course the NFL anthem/kneeling situations.

But is this all really cyclical, one might ask, as believing in the 80-year cycle can be difficult, especially if you haven't read The Fourth Turning book and understand the historical evidence of generational dynamics. I really hate talking mostly about wars, but unfortunately/fortunately that is the one place where making statistics from history is relatively easy (I'd love to have oxytocin hormone level history at hand...). So, how do things look like if you take ca. 1945 as a starting point (blue thick lines) and go 80 years back like a clock?

[Image: globaldeaths.jpg]

You see a rise or a top every single time, no exceptions. (Note the left edge, the scale is logarithmic, so the peaks are actually much bigger than at first sight.)


And how do epigenetics tie into all this? Epigenetics is the part of the human genome that is affected by the environment, and it starts from the womb, even the stress levels -> oxytocin level rises happen even when the child isn't born yet. There is no escape from our surroundings until we're adults, this is why the cycle is going on and on. We cannot control our genes, and our environment is given to us, as are basically our social networks. This is the short version, but try to think from micro level (DNA) into macro level (the globe). Communication is global now, we're all connected, especially the western cultures.

Social network platforms like Facebook are NOT the driving force for social division! This is an illusion that covers the true reason for rise of racism, populism and nationalism, just like the Great depression of the 1930's. But now we see these divisions appearing  more clearly with the internet and social platforms only accelerate the process/progress of division. The spreading influences and divisions just happen more quickly thanks to the communication at light speed across continents, nothing more, they're not the cause. Researchers looking for the root causes in the inventions of man are blind to our own nature, our genetic inheritance. Combine genetics, epigenetics, surrounding environtment and history (including generational dynamics), and now you have hope of truly understanding the actions of individuals and larger social networks from tribes the empires.


In our social bubbles we choose what to believe, and especially today we want to believe our friends and like minded people more than the "others". We are driven by our hormones, this time forcefully by oxytocin. And this all started to really take pace in the 1480's, as church lost its stranglehold of western cultures, religions started to crumble and lose credibility. Thinking was free again, as it had been in several cultures before (like ancient Athens). On our spot in the history technology and capitalism allow huge freedom, which also allows love & war to rein as they have never before. The peace & love movement in the 1960's and 70' was amazingly strong, but he wars are still plentiful and deadly, even though we should be more "reasonable".

Education is no good if the culture is violent, as the size and development of the frontal cortex seems to be somewhat of a divider in many individual cases, and these individuals are among us and influence others. The western cultures certainly are still full of violence. If you disagree, look at the movies, TV and video-games. Killing is everywhere, death is nothing more than a plot twist or an insignificant casualty of war. We're surrounded by violence in our western cultures.


And going back to oxytocin, that is also the reason for the raping in wars, as the levels are high. Chimps do it and humans do it. No difference, the behavior is 100% the same. And what happens when the 4th turning ends? High oxytocin levels for many years -> baby boom. And 2nd turning, which brings the need for change in a different way than the 4th turning. What hormone is responsible for that rise? Well, oxytocin! The baby boom generations get lots of love and affection since the high oxytocin levels of their parents. When they come to their twenties, they are full of love and compassion -> inner awakening happens, the hippies are the perfect example! It all fits together nicely, this is the cycle.

Think about the generation that gets all the love and attention, as well as experience the reconstruction after the war, they feel like everything is great, optimism is in the air (at least for the winners). This is the baby boomers. They grow confident, and this is one thing that drives the stock market. When does the most confident generation has most of the wealth and are the leaders? In the 4th turning. And people in their golden years are most confident (link to study). Now think about the biggest crashes in economy, 1929 & 2008. Eighty years apart, the most confident people controlling things, that is why greed is the name of the game, and this leads to the biggest bubbles. Other factors weigh in too, but still, the underlying current of generational dynamics is the main driver in all human social activity.


As for the 3rd turning, that is the most difficult part to read. The children of the hippies come to their prime, and oxytocin levels through epigenetic behavior are dropping, as is communality and peaceful behavior. Families are splintering and old values are not respected anymore. In our century with more freedom of thought than ever, this was the perfect ground for genres like rap to rise, selfishness started to take hold of popular culture, more mega-stars than ever in the history of man. Places like NY and Detroit are perfect examples, families structures fell apart and violence was more apparent than ever. Inner emptiness of individuals started to take hold, and this is one reason why consumption of entertainment rose all the time, the real world and facts slowly started to lose meaning.

I'm not claiming that oxytocin is the one and only answer here and elsewhere, but if it is the underlying current, a wave movement through centuries, if might look something like this:

...image coming soon...


I would be more than happy to hear criticism on this theory! Just tell me why you think I'm wrong on my own assumptions. Nationalism is rising, old institutions are crumbling, sides are being chosen. This is it, this is what we're as animals. Thanks for reading! Smile



------------------------------
Some materials for sceptic's
------------------------------
- If you doubt the connection between epigenetics - hormones - behavior - yourself - the world, watch this truly excellent video right now!




- If still you doubt the effects of oxytocin after watching that lecture: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/science...enemy.html
- If you doubt the chimp civil war: https://today.duke.edu/2018/03/how-infig...himpanzees
- If you still doubt we inherit memories & instincts from ancestors: http://reset.me/story/science-proving-me...ancestors/

- More about human fission (dividing of social groups): http://jannemiettinen.pp.fi/FourthTurnin...ission.pdf
- More about chimpanzee fission (dividing of social groups): http://jannemiettinen.pp.fi/FourthTurnin...ission.pdf


If you doubt anything else, do ask.
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#2
Hormones, hm? Could be, but we'd have to do more research. Maybe you're right.
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#3
Can't the 80 years just be our average life span?
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#4
That's what S&H say, and archetypally they said 84 years. The generation cycle seems to work mostly because people alive today don't remember well enough what happened one life-span ago. Astrologers have said that the planet Uranus, which has an 84-year orbit, gets its characteristics from the same factor.

We are hardly just another primate. But we do have traits from our distant ancestors left over. Epigenetics is an interesting change to Darwinian evolution which essentially means that Lamarck was right; we do inherit acquired characteristics. And the Sheldrake theory of morphogenic resonance means that we can continue learned behavior in our collective lives past the change of generations.

That means we evolve and change past what we were as primates or even as primitive civilizations. But we do still carry remnants of our past, and this goes all the way back to the dinosaurs or before. We have a survival instinct; fight or flight, amygdala, or whatever it is that takes over our minds and our whole being when we are afraid, angry or addicted, lustful and indulgent. Since in fourth turnings we confront the possibility that our nation or civilization might perish, these old instincts are aroused. When a nation is still developing, fourth turnings end in victory for the good guys and progress continues. If the nation is dying, maybe not.

In second turnings, civilization is allowed to experience the transcendent, either traditionally or genuinely and mystically. New movements arise, and new values and ideals come into society, which in fourth turnings can be put into greater practice in the process of change and put the continued survival of our institutions and our nation onto a new footing.

Strauss and Howe did not say that individuals are hollowed out and shallow in third turnings, and I agree. It was quite the opposite. It was society that was going hollow, not individuals; who were interesting and full of life. In first turnings, individuals are shallow, hollow and unfulfilled (although they ignore this), but society works well. Having lived through these turnings, and having experienced people during them, I certainly agree with Strauss and Howe.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#5
(03-18-2019, 01:06 PM)jleagans Wrote: Can't the 80 years just be our average life span?

I associate 80 years with the usual length of the survival time of childhood memories to about age 5. Children may have no profound knowledge by age 5, but they get their impressions of the competence and trustworthiness of others before they are 5. They know by age 5 whether the world is helpful or hostile. They have developed group identity often as supposedly trivial (I wish, but I know otherwise) as "I am white", "I am black", "Shema Israel", "summer is hot and winter is cold (Iowa)", "summer is sunny and winter is rainy" (coastal California), or "what do you mean by a 'season?' (Singapore). Most important may be whether Humanity is generally to be trusted or strangers are dangers.

It is easy for us to believe that formal schooling shapes lives in ways that early-childhood can't, but school does not so much create a culture as cause one to find the meaning of what came before. If one was a late-wave GI, one probably had some impression of a high-flying culture of speculation leading to the Great Depression as a warning to do everything possible to squelch a sequel of such. So it was whether one was a conservative like Bob Dole who generally supported the desires of Big Business or a liberal like Jimmy Carter who didn't. Sure, Dole and Carter are still alive, but few people seek their advice anymore. For someone born in the early 1920s, get-rich-quick schemes of any kind reminded them of get-broke-quick follies. As they disappeared from the political scene as well as economic life, the get-rich-schemes (like Enrob and Made-off) proliferated. Is it surprising that the 2008 market crash came about 79 years after the Great Stock Market Crash of 1929? In the Double-Zero decade, lots of people thought that credit was the key to opportunity and wealth; I almost expect kids born around then to see debt as an even filthier word than the crude word for 'fornicate'.

Influential people are now around into their middle-80s, and those much older are usually either dying off, going senile, or becoming irrelevant. Leaders need a sympathetic constituency, and such is rare among the very old. When the leadership is itself unattractive, then things can go very bad very fast, as with Trump. He is a pathological risk taker in a time in which Americans are getting more cautious; he is a sexual sadist in a time in which people are becoming intolerant of such; he is a lecher in a time in which Americans are becoming more sexually repressive (but what about same-sex marriage? Gays and lesbians joined us straights in ganging up against perverts who mess with children!); he believes in economic inequality, a rigid class system, and bureaucratic hierarchy at a time in which Americans associate such with their own hardship; he promotes unreason as Americans become chilly rationalists.

It's not Right versus Left; it is workable versus absurd.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


Reply
#6
(10-09-2018, 08:03 AM)Theojm Wrote: It is epigenetics + environment -> hormones -> behavior. Add this to generational behavior and you have the 80-year cycle. This is it.

Genes control our basic biological structures and instincts, they change slowly, not much between generations. Epigenetics correlate with environment, even before birth, this is the key. This is the key to hormone levels and development of humans. Each generation correlates with the previous one, as Howe & Strauss tell us, and there is the 4 fold generational cycle that goes around, roughly at 2025-2005 | 2005-1985 | 1985-1965 | 1965-1945 | 1945-1925 and so on...). I hope everyone is following my train of thoughts so far.

(redacted for constraints on space)


Oxytocin increaces also with stress, and when you do, you stick to the people who think like you do. It is the same as Homo sapiens, it is the rise of oxytocin that finally divides us. This is happening today in most western cultures, the divide, the echo chambers!  If the nation is unified enough, there still has to be some divide, and this is the rise of racism explained by hormones. It can be Jews, blacks, witches or gays, but there must be an opposite side when oxytocin levels are rising (also explains overprotective 4th turning child nurture). And the humans with the least developed frontal cortex (which controls reason) are generally most inclined to racism, because they are the most vulnerable to hormonal activity. Just like the same people often have the biggest amount of kids and use substances like alcohol and drugs the most.

Now look at witch hunts, their peak was ca. 1620 (cycle-wise 1620+80+80+80+80= 1940, holocaust at its worst).

[Image: witch-hunt.jpg]
We see first see the purification and then war (even though Europe was much more splintered than during WW2, no huge power/empire required for wars). Combine these graphs together and add the chimp graph, and what do you get?

[Image: witch-hunt-chimps-combined.jpg]

On the chimp level grooming leads to oxytocin rising -> sides chosen (arrivals) - civil war  (in this case). In the case of witch hunts there are wars and civil wars. One of the biggest "civil wars" in Europe started in Bohemia from an uprising during 1618-1620, the 30-years war. It wasn't so much of a war between nations but ideologies, the protestants vs. catholics. Two groups, the old red vs. blue fight. It doesn't matter who is right or wrong as we see today with "alternate truths". (When Rudy Giuliani recently said by mistake "The truth isn't the truth", he hit the nail on the head. That is what the fourth turning is all about.)
[size]

So we are not fully rational creatures. That is easy to forget as things spiral out of control. Some people, like the witch-hunters of the past and the pogrom-mongers and fascists of more recent times know how to appeal to the basest drives of human nature. At the end of the 4T, when the carnage of a pogrom is all too obvious, people start recognizing the need for basic human decency.

As for "the truth isn't the truth"... liberals are catching onto the hazards of postmodern rejections of objective reality as a test of truth. We may all disagree on the nature of objective reality especially on human nature, but eventually we find that certain behaviors bring happiness and others create mass suffering. To Hell with postmodern rejection of reason.

6 + 5 = 11

Bigger triangles similar in shape do not have bigger angles.

Cruelty begets bad results, and kindness gets good results.


[/size]
Quote:This "coming together against others" isn't only seen in witch-hunts / racism / nationalism / genocides. Think about the #metoo movement: Unification, bad habits are under attack, new standards are reached at some point, unifying the tribe/town/nation/culture. And #metoo isn't alone, there are the movements against gun violence and of course the NFL anthem/kneeling situations.

Bad habits, like outright crime, reckless speculation on other's money, living on an ill-balanced diet, drunkenness and addiction, messing with children, racism and religious bigotry, watching excessive TV, and supporting extremist causes, going into debt for quick indulgence, do great harm to oneself and to loved ones -- and the community as a whole if one has real power within it.

Quote:But is this all really cyclical, one might ask, as believing in the 80-year cycle can be difficult, especially if you haven't read The Fourth Turning book and understand the historical evidence of generational dynamics. I really hate talking mostly about wars, but unfortunately/fortunately that is the one place where making statistics from history is relatively easy (I'd love to have oxytocin hormone level history at hand...). So, how do things look like if you take ca. 1945 as a starting point (blue thick lines) and go 80 years back like a clock?

(redacted for space)

the Spanish Armada, the Glorious Revolution, the American Revolution, the American Civil War, World War II... circumstances were different, but the consequences were much the same. Maybe there are economic factors that themselves create distress that some societies  can't deal with gracefully. Who would want to live in Germany in the 1920s? It may be an unconventional response, but the scariest of all horror movies is Cabaret. Dracula and Frankenstein variants have enough elements of unreality that one can dismiss something (the story gets worse with every retelling of the story of Vlad Tepes, and it is obviously impossible to attach a viable head upon a dear body and get a living human). There may have been healthier entertainments in Weimar Germany than the fictional Kit-Cat Club, such as concerts of the Berlin Philharmonic and the glorious drama. Metropolis and M are suggestions of a greatness of cinema that could have rivaled Hollywood in quality and substance had the greatest talent involved not had to flee to Hollywood just to survive (like Peter Lorre) or to sell out to Nazism to maintain some morally-compromised status as a cinematic professional (Heinrich George).

The end of a 4T demonstrates how bad the decisions can be. Would a President of the United States authorize the use of the atom bomb on a largely-civilian target at any other time? Probably not -- but it is far easier to do so upon a nation demonized as an enemy for such a horror as the Bataan Death March.  I have seen the argument that the United States would have never used the atom bomb upon the Germans because the Germans are white -- but that was an easy thing to forget when Americans had no cause for solidarity with the German people. Nazi Germany collapsed in every possible aspect of its sordid existence before America had the atom bomb, and had it gotten a new lease on life after the failure of the of the D-Day invasion. I can easily imagine a German city or two experiencing what Hiroshima or Nagasaki experienced. The pretext? The Holocaust!


Quote:And how do epigenetics tie into all this? Epigenetics is the part of the human genome that is affected by the environment, and it starts from the womb, even the stress levels -> oxytocin level rises happen even when the child isn't born yet. There is no escape from our surroundings until we're adults, this is why the cycle is going on and on. We cannot control our genes, and our environment is given to us, as are basically our social networks. This is the short version, but try to think from micro level (DNA) into macro level (the globe). Communication is global now, we're all connected, especially the western cultures.

Stress is a reality for almost everyone. How people deal with stress says much about their character -- and environment. Maybe one seeks a catharsis. Maybe one seeks universal principles that compel solidarity with the pariahs (Jews, gypsies, heretics, witches, racial minorities, kulaks, dissidents, homosexuals, the poor) of the time. Note well that America is not as dangerous as Nazi Germany, as is shown in the disapproval numbers for Donald Trump. Sure, he got elected in accordance with our rules, but he has so violated trust that he has lost credibility.

Quote:Social network platforms like Facebook are NOT the driving force for social division! This is an illusion that covers the true reason for rise of racism, populism and nationalism, just like the Great depression of the 1930's. But now we see these divisions appearing  more clearly with the internet and social platforms only accelerate the process/progress of division. The spreading influences and divisions just happen more quickly thanks to the communication at light speed across continents, nothing more, they're not the cause. Researchers looking for the root causes in the inventions of man are blind to our own nature, our genetic inheritance. Combine genetics, epigenetics, surrounding environment and history (including generational dynamics), and now you have hope of truly understanding the actions of individuals and larger social networks from tribes the empires.

In a 1T, a social network platform such as Facebook will more likely become a platform for people sharing recipes or telling others about reunions and anniversaries (already an innocuous part of Facebook) than as a means of spreading political fabrications. I have my idea of the effects of the Great Depression; it generally brought out the best in America, compelling people to rely more upon doing things the hard way (more toil for long-term rewards and low-yield returns as through the founding of small business instead of the supposed easy money of the plethora of get-rich-quick schemes) and insisting upon integrity and foresight in government. The same economic downturn brought the Antichrist to power in Germany, where economic conditions and political institutions had been shakier and in which millions had hurt feelings from a meat-grinder war and a vindictive treatment by the victors. Racism, populism, and nationalism were nothing new in America in the 1930s -- let alone in Germany, Italy, and Japan.

Quote:In our social bubbles we choose what to believe, and especially today we want to believe our friends and like minded people more than the "others". We are driven by our hormones, this time forcefully by oxytocin. And this all started to really take pace in the 1480's, as church lost its stranglehold of western cultures, religions started to crumble and lose credibility. Thinking was free again, as it had been in several cultures before (like ancient Athens). On our spot in the history technology and capitalism allow huge freedom, which also allows love & war to rein as they have never before. The peace & love movement in the 1960's and 70' was amazingly strong, but the wars are still plentiful and deadly, even though we should be more "reasonable".

History was still a violent, destructive phenomenon in the Middle Ages. Just think of the Crusades. I have an ancestor whom Saladin beheaded. Circumstances? He was a petty king, but he financed his kingdom (and got rich) by raiding caravans. In more recent, but not quite modern times, his ethical identity would have been as a pirate. Saladin had two Christian captives, both petty kings that night, and he beheaded my ancestor. Saladin saw more a criminal than a king. The other captive saw the beheading and was scared. Saladin then reassured him that he had done nothing wrong and that he was more a guest than a captive. Saladin had a lesson to teach: raid caravans, and die. His guest got plenty of non-alcoholic drink (it was a desert) and a nice feast. For extreme immorality, "Kill everyone in the city and let God decide who goes to Heaven and Hell" is the morality of the Crusader. Wars are deadly because the power for killing people becomes greater than the means of saving lives. The American Civil War was so deadly because the machine guns outstripped the capacity of the primitive medicine of the time to save people who died of infected wounds.

History was simply murkier in the middle ages -- and just as bloody. As I put it, history is an obscene tale written in the blood of innocent people on the parchment of the flesh of innocent people.

Quote:Education is no good if the culture is violent, as the size and development of the frontal cortex seems to be somewhat of a divider in many individual cases, and these individuals are among us and influence others. The western cultures certainly are still full of violence. If you disagree, look at the movies, TV and video-games. Killing is everywhere, death is nothing more than a plot twist or an insignificant casualty of war. We're surrounded by violence in our western cultures.

But people can be educated to reject violence. War movies are typically the most violent of all because of the nature of war -- but if a war movie develops the character of the eventual dead of the war one can recognize the tragedy and undesirability of war. It is unfortunate that there had to be a Longest Day -- but Hitler made that an inevitability. Bonnie and Clyde? Depression-era marauders, shown a bit prettified (that is a Hollywood standard, but also shallow and vicious, who bring no good. When the end comes, the obviously deserve the 'ventilation' that they got. What could be more violent than the annihilation of the entire planet Alderaan in Star Wars -- genocide on a scale that even the Nazis could not imagine? But those movies come from an Awakening Era. Yes, Star Wars is already old.

Many of the TV 'crime' dramas are about hounding down an unusually devious offender, which offers a lesson: commit an inexcusable crime, and the resources of a society will catch and shame you -- if not kill you. Video games have their obvious unreality.

But let us not forget a great reality about war: the side that acts most humanely has a huge advantage. Defeat is always bitter, but if it comes with emancipation, then defeat isn't so bad. The Union side in the Civil War doomed the Confederacy by promising freedom to slaves. Mistreatment of captives is one way to waste them; the Allies ended up with the good Jewish scientists and entrepreneurs that the Nazis would have murdered. In the end, the victors who leave the vanquished with no cause to strike back end the war on their terms.

Quote:And going back to oxytocin, that is also the reason for the raping in wars, as the levels are high. Chimps do it and humans do it. No difference, the behavior is 100% the same. And what happens when the 4th turning ends? High oxytocin levels for many years -> baby boom. And 2nd turning, which brings the need for change in a different way than the 4th turning. What hormone is responsible for that rise? Well, oxytocin! The baby boom generations get lots of love and affection since the high oxytocin levels of their parents. When they come to their twenties, they are full of love and compassion -> inner awakening happens, the hippies are the perfect example! It all fits together nicely, this is the cycle.

Good military leaders impose effective discipline upon their troops. Rape, pillage, and outright murder get one hanged (or whatever execution is available) if the general is Alexander, Washington, Wellington, Grant, Lee, Pershing, Patton, Montgomery, deGaulle, MacArthur, or Schwartzkopf. Even Rommel or Zhukov, their regimes notwithstanding. (The rapists in the Red Army may have been spared formal execution only to be assigned to penal brigades obliged to march over live mine-fields ahead of the Soviet tanks, which is one way to avoid a noose or a firing squad, but not much of a bargain).

Rape and pillage (which are related in practice) exemplify a lack of adequate discipline in an army. And what does this say of sailors and airmen who rarely get the chance for encounters with civilian women or exposed property seemingly there for the taking?

Quote:Think about the generation that gets all the love and attention, as well as experience the reconstruction after the war, they feel like everything is great, optimism is in the air (at least for the winners). This is the baby boomers. They grow confident, and this is one thing that drives the stock market. When does the most confident generation has most of the wealth and are the leaders? In the 4th turning. And people in their golden years are most confident (link to study). Now think about the biggest crashes in economy, 1929 & 2008. Eighty years apart, the most confident people controlling things, that is why greed is the name of the game, and this leads to the biggest bubbles. Other factors weigh in too, but still, the underlying current of generational dynamics is the main driver in all human social activity.

Boomers are not a monolith, and neither were the Missionaries. As a Boomer I know them well. The ones who had to deal with the harsh realities of bureaucratic power and economic inequity have been shut out of roles of leadership in commerce, politics, and culture. It is a pity, for those who have gotten a hold on power have proved so horrid as leaders. Maybe they needed a little ice-water realism of having to chafe in a world that demanded that they smile as they are obliged to ask "Do you want fries with that?" despite being superior to the Master Class in morals and intellect. Arrogance is a pathological manifestation of self-confidence, and people who have never seen bad consequences to themselves for their exploitation and oppression of others or for giving advice in a way profitable to themselves but ruinous to their clients tend to become more pathological as leaders. Thus Enron (which included Boomers, but also some Silent and X). Thus Donald Trump. Thus the fad of the Public-Private Partnership that guarantees easy profits for a rapacious monopolist yet pushes risks onto the taxpayer.

The bad actors ensure that with leadership that a version of Gresham's Law as applies to economics (debased money drives out good money) applies to organizations: pathological leadership entrenches itself and shuts out leadership with caution and morals. It is only a  matter of time before the bad organization crashes with huge numbers of bankruptcies. The cause of ruin may be that a business model fails due to a competitive nemesis (who needs Borders or Blockbuster when there is Amazon.com?) or that bureaucratic bloat simply takes too much. The line between revenue and outgo meets, and outgo exceeds revenue, and eventually the deficits devour assets until the degraded firm goes bankrupt. Or the company has put millions in debt that keeps growing and the debtors can no longer pay or buy more.

Quote:As for the 3rd turning, that is the most difficult part to read. The children of the hippies come to their prime, and oxytocin levels through epigenetic behavior are dropping, as is communality and peaceful behavior. Families are splintering and old values are not respected anymore. In our century with more freedom of thought than ever, this was the perfect ground for genres like rap to rise, selfishness started to take hold of popular culture, more mega-stars than ever in the history of man. Places like NY and Detroit are perfect examples, families structures fell apart and violence was more apparent than ever. Inner emptiness of individuals started to take hold, and this is one reason why consumption of entertainment rose all the time, the real world and facts slowly started to lose meaning.

I see the third turning as a partial recovery from the awakening -- but only a superficial one. The rot starts setting in and degrading the foundations of such prosperity as existed. People start learning that hustling is easier than legitimate achievement and even more lucrative. People neglect the time-consuming for ephemeral delights, which means that such an activity as Scouting goes into decline. People go onto consumer binges instead of creating wealth. (OK, in view of the injustice that builds in a 3T, people are obliged to make others filthy rich while remaining dirt-poor). The economic elites become nearly as debased as the pimps and pushers. Celebrity becomes a substitute for character. Results go centripetal, with old ways of making money becoming less reliable (thus Detroit with its automobiles, St. Louis with its chemicals, Gary and Pittsburgh with steel, much of Ohio with tires and glass), and money is more likely to be made off speculative activities. "Ask me no questions and I will tell you no lies". Politics gets reduced to thirty-second ads that can never encompass the complexity of political life.

News becomes propaganda. Maybe it is my liberal bent, but I see an Orwellian character in FoX Newspeak Channel, complete with its Two Minute Hate toward the liberal nemesis of the day.

A Fourth Turning is the working out of the depravities of the inevitable degeneracy of the latter part of the Third Turning. We now have top leadership at this stage in the Fourth Turning who exemplifies everything wrong in the preceding Third Turning, someone who believes that things will go well again if people return to the depravities of the Third Turning. 

If we hoard oily rags, let alone smoke in bed, in a Third Turning then we should expect a fire in the Fourth Turning.

Quote:I'm not claiming that oxytocin is the one and only answer here and elsewhere, but if it is the underlying current, a wave movement through centuries, if might look something like this:

...image coming soon...


I would be more than happy to hear criticism on this theory! Just tell me why you think I'm wrong on my own assumptions. Nationalism is rising, old institutions are crumbling, sides are being chosen. This is it, this is what we're as animals. Thanks for reading! Smile



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Some materials for sceptic's
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- If you doubt the connection between epigenetics - hormones - behavior - yourself - the world, watch this truly excellent video right now!




If you doubt anything else, do ask.

I will have to read up on oxytocin. Note well: good people try to transcend their worst tendencies, and bad people seek to profiteer from those bad tendencies.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#7
Hey Theojm, do you have proof that hormone levels actually are changing (and did so in history)?
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