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Donald Trump: polls of approval and favorability
Now with later polling (July 24 or later)

NJ, Rutgers-Eagleton 30-65

Zogby Interactive
FL 45-52
IN 48-48
KY 52-44
MI 38-57
MO 46-40
MT 49-46
ND 51-44
OH 45-52
PA 40-55
WI 40-57
WV 48-48

Kentucky, PPP, 60-38

Marist:

Michigan 36-55
Pennsylvania 35-54
Wisconsin 34-56

(Zogby Interactive supplants these)

PPP, Tennessee 51-42
University of New Hampshire, 34-55

Quinnipiac, Virginia 36-61

PPP, North Carolina 44-50
PPP, Arizona 45-53
PPP, Nevada 42-53

PPIC, California 25-71

Using only those that have fewer than 10% undecided,

Approval

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=0;99;6]

Trump ahead Trump behind

55% or higher 45% to 49%
50% to 54% 40% to 44%
45% to 49% under 40%
Ties are in white.




Disapproval:

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...NE3=0;99;6]

60% or higher (deep red)
57% to 59%
55% to 56%
50% to 54%
46% to 49%
43% to 45%
42% or less



Ties are in white.
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool" -- William Shakespeare, As You Like It, V.i


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If Trump/Pence win those states who disapprove of Trump by 55% or less now on brower's map above, and 55% is not that much, then he/they will win the 2020 election. If Trump can learn to switch sides to get things done, as he did this week, his disapproval rating could sink.

Nevada 53 6
Arizona 53 11
Utah 55 6
Idaho 45 4
Montana 46 3
North Dakota 44 3
Wyoming 39 3
South Dakota 46 3
Nebraska 51 5
Iowa 52 6
Kansas 51 6
Oklahoma 45 7
Texas 53 38
Ohio 53 18
Missouri 48 10
Indiana 48 11
West Virginia 48 5
Pennsylvania 55 20
Kentucky 38 8
Tennessee 47 11
Arkansas 42 6
Louisiana 45 8
Mississippi 46 6
Alabama 41 9
North Carolina 50 15
South Carolina 51 9
Georgia 54 16
Florida 52 29
Alaska 52 3

285 electoral votes. Pennsylvania would look to be the decider.

Will the August eclipse on Trump's Ascendant/Mars prove to be beneficial to him after all, signalling a switch in his strategy (thanks to the floods; Trump doesn't want to be the next Katrina-like victim) ? Or are more challenges awaiting him soon that could sink him?

Don't underestimate the Drump. And don't over-estimate the chances of a Democrat who has a lower horoscope score than Trump.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
But -- 55% disapproval is hard to undo.

Maybe not impossible, as we are 38 months away from the 2020 election. I still see a personality unable to act in an adult mode. Spite is a poor motivation for making decisions, and even his (one-time?) deal with Democrats could be an exercise in showing Congressional Republicans who is boss. One can do that only so often.
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool" -- William Shakespeare, As You Like It, V.i


Reply
(09-09-2017, 09:13 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: But -- 55% disapproval is hard to undo.

Maybe not impossible, as we are 38 months away from the 2020 election. I still see a personality unable to act in an adult mode. Spite is a poor motivation for making decisions, and even his (one-time?) deal with Democrats could be an exercise in showing Congressional Republicans who is boss. One can do that only so often.

Yes, especially Trump can only do that so often, apparently. Because he's an incompetent boss. But he's a good salesman among the people. So Democrats beware, you can't beat someone with no-one.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
Reply
Movement of Trump support and otherwise from April to August:

[Image: DJs-0LAUMAARnmw.jpg]

https://t.co/8rZGh0Pj2H[/quote]


This is "all adults" , which of course includes:

1. non-citizens
2. people who will die, emigrate, or lose the right to vote
3. people who just simply do not go out and vote

It does not include

1. people under 18 now who will be voting in 2020.
2. People who may get citizenship and start voting.

This map refers to approval, and at this point I consider disapproval far more sticky.
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool" -- William Shakespeare, As You Like It, V.i


Reply
Nate Silver notes some trends.



[Image: enten-trump50states-0916-1.png?w=575&h=6...strip=info]

Graphs belong to Nate Silver: comments are mine.

Although approval is not a 100%-reliable predictor of elections, let alone 100% precise, it is clear that President Trump is not maintaining anywhere near the support close to the vote that he got in 2016. To be sure, incumbents can usually expect to lose about 7% from the vote share entering office to approval after a significant time in office, which makes sense when you recognize that some voters can find that what they hoped for isn't on the agenda. All politicians make promises that they can never achieve; even the most honest can never predict the success of the proposals that they offer. There are, after all, nearly half the electorate and half the elected officials wanting the opposite, and they can stall just about any new legislation.

But elected pols usually get re-elected -- because they campaign again and excite much the same people the next time. The usual incumbent can show in the next election why he* was elected the first time, according to a study that Nate Silver made some years ago that I consider relevant not only to elected Governors and Senators seeking re-election but also to the Presidency. It worked well for Bill Clinton in 1996, Dubya in 2004, and Obama in 2012... and it looks likely to be relevant in 2020. Reality will dig a hole for just about any elected official, but if the hole isn't too big, he* will be able to get out of that hole.

So President Trump got 46% of the popular vote in 2016 and tracking polls typically have his approval ratings in the high 30s. Figuring that 46% of the popular vote is generally not enough with which to win a Presidential election (that is what McCain got in 2008 and Dukakis got in 1988, and less than Romney got in 2016 or Kerry in 2004, and we generally recognize them as electoral losers)... President Trump will have a tough time winning re-election.

When the mean loss is 13%, then the incumbent has a big problem unless he won 56% or more of the popular vote. The biggest losses are generally in states that he won big (losses of 17% or more from vote to approval in states that he lost only in Colorado and Minnesota), but states that were close for him (North Carolina, Arizona, Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan which he won by margins less than 5%) are all turning on him. States on the fringe of competition for him in 2016 that he won by 5% to 9% (Georgia, Ohio, Iowa, and Texas) all give poor approval numbers. 

For now I rely more upon disapproval figures, establishing a ceiling of 100 less disapproval. Disapproval is far stickier than approval, and it is a clear barrier. Effective, spirited campaigning can win over the undecided, and it can bring people to vote who otherwise would not vote. Of course some things will matter: whether the economy is or is not in the tank, whether international issues are in worse or better shape, whether there will be a discrediting scandal, whether there will be civic peace (as opposed to riots and mass demonstrations), and of course who the Democratic nominee will be and how well he* campaigns. Above all, we have no idea of whether the next Presidential election will be free and fair. The President acts much like a dictator, and there are plenty of people who would love to kill democracy so that they can have an economic order in which no human suffering is excessive so long as it enhances, indulges, and enforces class privilege. They would love to have legislation by lobbyist... forever... so long as they own the lobbyists.
"The fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool" -- William Shakespeare, As You Like It, V.i


Reply
(09-15-2017, 11:22 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: Movement of Trump support and otherwise from April to August:

[Image: DJs-0LAUMAARnmw.jpg]

https://t.co/8rZGh0Pj2H
Quote:This is "all adults" , which of course includes:

1. non-citizens
2. people who will die, emigrate, or lose the right to vote
3. people who just simply do not go out and vote

It does not include

1. people under 18 now who will be voting in 2020.
2. People who may get citizenship and start voting.

This map refers to approval, and at this point I consider disapproval far more sticky.

Idaho ... the Militia State!
#ImpeachTrump
#ProsecuteTreason
#HUAC2.0
#RealNationalism
#NaziPunksFOff


Mark 13:22 - "For there shall rise false Christs and false prophets, and they shall give signs and wonders, to seduce, if possible, also the chosen."


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