I Found this article that should be interesting. Here is the URL: http://www.politicususa.com/2016/09/23/c...polls.html

Here is the article:

Quote:NBC’s Chuck Todd broke down the tightening state polls and offered a very simple explanation for why Democrats don’t need to be worried about what looks like an election that is getting closer.

Todd said, “You look at the state polls are showing one thing, which is a closing race. Trump getting closer. The national polls have all shown something else. Looks like Clinton is opening up. Take a look at that dates these were conducted. All of the national polls have been conducted basically since last Friday. The birther announcement by him. Many of the state polls, including Quinnipiac, a lot of it conducted before, of course, that week was a very bad week for her, some in the post weekend, but I would say I would like to see what the numbers look like in a week to see an indicator, but I think the state polls are the lagging indicator right now.”

Chuck Todd takes a ton of criticism, sometimes justified, but the man can break apart polling data like few others on cable news.

Todd’s exactly right. Democrats are freaking out over these state polls, in part because the media reports the horserace headline without providing the context. The state polls are running about a week behind the national polls. What the state polls are measuring is the tightening that occurred during Clinton’s health scare bad week.

Immediately after Clinton returned to the campaign trail, she bounced back into the lead nationally, and that is where she has stayed.
A poll measures a snapshot in time, and it is important to be aware of what is going on at the time the poll is taken.

It is possible that if Hillary Clinton has a good debate performance on Monday, the state polls will show her numbers improving. Much of this improvement will be credited to the debate by some in the press, but that improvement will actually be a snapshot of Trump’s fall over the birther mess and Clinton’s return to the campaign trail.

The interesting state polls will come a week after the debate. Those polls should show how much of an impact the debate had on voters. A good debate for Clinton could result in two weeks of good poll numbers.

Democrats should relax about the polls, and Democrats really need to cool it with the gloom and doom fundraising emails, because not all polls are measuring the same thing at the same time.

As Chuck Todd pointed out the state polls are lagging behind the national numbers, which are looking very good for Hillary Clinton.

This is for old-time posters, and John Xenakis.  I have a distinct recollection of a T4T poster coining the them Homelander for the New Silents shortly after 911.  For some reason I have Susan Brombacher associated with this term in my memory. I was curious about this and did some Google searches for the term.  It is attributed to S&H based on a survey they did in 2005.  Does anyone remember anything about this? If so, perhaps John might have it on his site where he was preserved a number of threads going way back in 2001.

Thanks

I am referring to Agustin de Iturbide, the Spanish general who was dispatched to Mexico to put down the Mexican Revolution, only to turn traitor and assume command of the revolutionary army, which then proceeded to win the war and make Mexico independent.

This theory is now being expounded by nervous Nellies on the right - including yesterday by a caller to Rush Limbaugh.

It wouldn't surprise me one bit.

Oh, he will try to do the Samuel Gompers stuff on immigration, and do some saber-rattling at the Muslims - but he won't lift a finger to repeal ObamaCare or toe the fundie line on abortion, and will probably lead the charge to get ENDA passed.

https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/53995-a...omelanders

Quote:Editor's Note: In this complimentary edition of About Everything, Hedgeye Demography Sector Head Neil Howe discusses what he calls the Homeland Generation, America's youngest generation of kids coming after Millennials. Howe discusses the implications for investors...


https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/53995-a...omelanders

I don't know anything about the website this is on but Neil Howe did an interview with a podcast, I haven't listened to it yet so I don't know if he said anything new.

http://www.artofmanliness.com/2016/09/20...ign=buffer

The budding artists of the new artist generation. Here's one:





https://www.facebook.com/BeethovenOnlyBe...686057244/

http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/th...-president

Quote:If American military personnel alone were selecting the next president, the contest would be a dead heat between Republican nominee Donald Trump and Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, according to an exclusive new survey by Military Times and Syracuse University's Institute for Veterans and Military Families.

Conducted in September, it is the first scientific breakdown of voting preferences among service members, and includes more than 2,200 responses from active-duty troops. And it shows a very different race than the one playing out on the broader national stage. 

Among the entire military force, Trump leads Johnson 37.6 percent to 36.5 percent, within the study’s 2 percent margin of error. Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton trails as a distant third-place choice, with only 16.3 percent of troops' support.

Green Party candidate Jill Stein received 1.2 percent support while other third-party and write-in options received 3.2 percent.

About 5 percent of respondents indicated they do not plan to vote given the likely choices on the ballot this year...



http://www.militarytimes.com/articles/th...-president

Given:
1) Late Antiquity was not in any way unique at the time - there had been previous, repeated falls of earlier Civilizations
2) Clear failure of the "glue" that has held the current post Middle Ages wave of Civilization together
3) Rising mass migrations from less Civilized parts of the world
4) Reactionary forces here in the West using #2 and #3 to bolster their own ultimately self destructive plans
5) The onset of zero / negative economic growth meaning less and less to invest in infrastructure, education and human development
6) Even if we reverse anthropogenic environmental mods and impacts, the Law of Averages dictates that the unbelievably favorable environmental conditions enjoyed since the Little Ice Age cannot and will not last
7) Ongoing evolution of harmful microorganisms, parasites, toxic molds / fungi, etc;

A mega Unraveling is an inevitability. It is not a matter of if, but when.

The only real question would be, would the next mega Unraveling phase with a future Saecular 3T, would it phase with the conclusion of the current or future Saeculum, or is this the sort of thing that is more random in nature, and does not phase at all with the Saecular "carrier frequency?"

DISCUSS!

https://newrepublic.com/article/136837/future-trump

Quote:The Republican Party was torn asunder by a populist media personality running a nationalist campaign based on immigration restriction, protectionism, and an anti-internationalist foreign policy. Initially dismissed as a bigoted crank, this upstart presidential candidate managed to humiliate the GOP establishment, led by the Bush family.

This is not just a description of the 2016 elections. It also happened in 1992.

Unlike Donald Trump, Pat Buchanan didn’t win the nomination, but his protest candidacy garnered more than two million votes and intensified fractures in the party that led to defeat in the general election. Buchanan’s candidacy provides a crucial context for understanding not just the roots of Trumpism, but also it’s likely future—even, or especially, if Trump loses to Hillary Clinton in November... https://newrepublic.com/article/136837/future-trump

According to the USC/LaTimes tracking poll Millennials have a swung strongly towards Trump in the past week, the poll is different from some others for reasons mentioned here and it is more favorable towards Trump than the other polls, still the swing is notable.