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  Trump Revives Threat of Force Against North Korea's 'Rocket Man'
Posted by: ResidentArtist - Yesterday, 07:40 AM - Forum: Beyond America - Replies (4)

Trump Revives Threat of Force Against North Korea's 'Rocket Man'


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  Sub-Saharan Africa
Posted by: Teejay - 12-01-2019, 05:29 AM - Forum: Beyond America - Replies (10)

I would argue that Sub-Saharan Africa is on a different saeculum to the West and they are currently in an Awakening which started in the 2010s. 
I will start with South Africa, which I argue is currently in an Awakening which started in 2012.  Their last Crisis was roughly from 1976 (with the Soweto uprising) to the end of Apartheid in 1994. Also, I can see both the Boer War and the the revolution Shaka initiated which created the Zulu Kingdom which is a period called the Mfecane ("Upheaval" or "The Crushing"), as part of previous Crisis's. The current South African zeitgeist while it has soured a bit, is still quite optimistic and the institutional order is relatively strong. South Africans remember the period roughly from 1976 to 1994 much differently, they consider it among the darkest periods in their history.  Indeed, the South African zeitgeist is the total opposite of South America, which is very deep into a Crisis.
When it comes to South African generations, the “Generation of 1976” are described in a way that is so consistent with a Civic Generation, since they are praised for the sacrifices they had so that the modern South African nation exists today and the South African media have reported how active older people seem to be today. While The Born Frees (the description of which is very consistent with a Prophet generation), those born after the end of Apartheid are very fiery and some are challenging the order their parents the “Generation of 1976” established although that is a bit simplistic. Because some of the Generation of 1976 have always been revolutionary and starting to exhibit hubris as they have taken the reigns of power. For example; the recent exportation of White owned farmland without compensation, initiated by a Civic generation president Cyril Ramaphosa (1952). 
Indeed, South Africa’s presidents have showed very clear reflections of their generations, with PW Botha and Nelson Mandela as Prophets, FW De Klerk, Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma as Nomads. While the current president Cyril Rampaphosa is a member of a Civic Generation.
The sort of zeitgeist that indicates an Awakening to me, is not just restricted to South Africa either. A former Fourth Turning forum user, who speaks to a Nigerian guy born in the 1980s, said that Nigeria is currently going through an Awakening and that guy is a member of an Artist generation.  Also, I have some observations from Uganda as well.

The story goes I was dating online a woman from Uganda (1988 cohort), who we met through the OkCupid website, for a few months. We got to know each other very well, also I learnt a lot about Ugandan society and even read local newspapers. Well, the impression I got Uganda is not a society in a Crisis currently. Rather the societal mood would be something more consistent with a society in an Awakening. Ugandan society is currently in an optimistic mood, although the established order is being challenged especially by the young people. This makes a lot of sense, given the events of the Rwandan genocide in 1994, which scream totally like a Crisis event to me.

An example; there are young people in Uganda who are part of the student climate action strike movement. However, they have not managed to mobilize huge groups of their peers in their activism, which I found surprising because here in Australia that has exactly happened. This woman’s job is a public health worker, specializing in providing clean water to communities (especially refugee camps) in the North of the country. She is also a single mother; whose son lives with her parents in another part of the country.
Her personality to me did not fit into either a Nomad or Civic archetype, rather come to think of it her personality is very consistent with that of an Artist, entering the midlife stage in a society in an Awakening. The contrasts between her and my former Peruvian (1982) girlfriend who is very much a Nomad "tough cookie" is very striking.
Indeed, she found my midlife Nomad personality intriguing, however yet baffling at the same time, especially that I have become very cautious in recent years.

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  Four Stars Equals Zero in Gig Economy
Posted by: beechnut79 - 11-30-2019, 04:31 PM - Forum: General Discussion - Replies (2)

The title says it all. Most if not all of the gig economy platforms, Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, etc. use a five-star rating system, which in itself is fine. But the way they administer it is very flawed to say the least. In their minds anything below five stars might just as well be zero. I would think that a lot of people would by nature be reluctant to give five stars unless the provider went way over and beyond the call of the duty, such as rescuing the family dog from ongoing traffic.  If the rating system were administered the way it should be, anything 3.5 (70 percent) or higher would be passing unless a real serious offense was committed. Uber boots drivers from their platform if their rating falls below 4.6, which is still 92 percent, very commendable on any school test. I am wondering if any of you here have any ideas as to where this four stars equals zero mentality comes from. Might also be interesting to have a discussion on how these companies can say that there people are not employees if they indeed have the power to boot them from the platform. A lawsuit waiting to happen? And also as to if this type of arrangement represents the wave of the future.

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  Technological Waves per Debora Spar
Posted by: sbarrera - 11-27-2019, 07:51 AM - Forum: Technology - No Replies

I started reading this book about waves of technological development, and thought it would make a great subject for comparison with saecular theory or historical cycle theory in general. I'm only part way through it, and here is what I've learned so far, as presented on my blog.


Ruling the Waves: A Saecular Breakdown

I've posted before about "books from the Third Turning that I didn't get around to until the Fourth Turning." Waiting on the bookshelf for some time has been Ruling the Waves, by Debora L. Spar. This book is subtitled "a History of Business and Politics along the Technological Frontier" and in the introduction discusses the Internet a bit. It was published in 2001 (pre-9/11!), when the commercial Internet was young and Web 2.0 was just getting going. The book was hoping, then, to shed some light on what was to come in the development of cyberspace.

The author has a premise that when a ground-breaking new technology is introduced, it goes through four phases of development before becoming a commonplace part of everyday life on which we depend. First there is the invention phase, involving just a few people, and then the entrepreneur phase, where risk-takers develop the new technology commercially. Next is what she calls a period of "creative anarchy," when the most successful entrepreneurs battle for supremacy in the marketplace, and finally the rulemaking phase, where those who now dominate the technology application push for a fixed legal structure within which to operate.

She goes through different waves of technology, and I was interested to see how what she describes compares to Strauss & Howe saecular theory. The first wave Spar analyzes is the wave of advancements that led to the Age of Discovery - but this happens over a long period of time (centuries) so bringing saecular theory into it seems difficult. The next technological wave was that of the telegraph, and here it is easier to do the analysis.

I was half-expecting to find that the Gilded generation were major players in the drama of the development of the telegraph, since they are the Nomad generation of the Civil War Saeculum. After all, the Nomad generation of the current saeculum, my generation, has had a big part to play in the rise of Internet technology. But what I found is that the the main players in the story (looking at the U.S. part of it) were all from two generations - Compromise and Transcendental. The Gilded are nowhere to be found, probably because they were too young.

The narrative of the development of the telegraph did track pretty well with the turnings of the Civil War Saeculum, however. The invention period occurs at the end of the Transcendental Awakening, the 2nd turning. It involves two key players, Samuel Morse (b. 1791, Compromise Generation) of course, and Alfred Vail (b. 1807, Transcendental Generation), who worked closely with Morse. The idea of transmitting electricity over wires had been known about for decades; their genius was in combining the transmission with encoding, to create information. They managed to get some public backing through Congress to build a line, but the enterprise failed.

So then came the entrepreneurs to buy them out, and build a private enterprise instead. A key player was Amos Kendall (b. 1789, Compromise), a former postmaster general who left his position specifically for this purpose. He proved that it was possible to raise funds privately to build a telegraph line, and once the public caught on to what the technology made possible, the money started flowing into more and more companies building regional lines. Other big time entrepreneurs of this period included Henry O'Rielly (b. 1806, Transcendental) and Cyrus Field (b. 1819, Transcendental), who built the first trans-Atlantic line.

Without going into too much detail, the competition became fierce, as well as costly to the companies involved. In the period leading up to the Civil War, that is the 3rd turning in saecular terms, there was fighting over patent rights and access to markets, as well as confusion sowed by competing signal standards and encoding methods. This is the "creative anarchy" period in Spar's terminology.

The winner of this period of conflict turned out to be Western Union, thanks in large part to the efforts of Hiram Sibley (b. 1807, Transcendental), who led it in its transformation into a telegraph company, eventually establishing the first transcontinental line. With this consolidation came standardization - the rulemaking period. After the Civil War, in the 1st turning of the next saeculum, Western Union became a huge and powerful monopoly, enough to worry people into pressuring the government to regulate it, though not much was done in the Gilded Age.

I just find it fascinating that the so many of the key players in the development of the telegraph were from the Transcendental generation, the Prophet archetype of the Civil War Saeculum. They were the Bill Gates and Steve Jobs equivalents of their time, and of this technological wave.

It wasn't until the end of the new saeculum, with the founding of the FCC, that private communication networks became thoroughly regulated. That was during the era of radio, which is actually the next technology covered by Spar's book. So I will continue reading Ruling the Waves, and report in another post what I discover.

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  Archetypes and Big 5
Posted by: Bill the Piper - 11-24-2019, 06:10 AM - Forum: Generations - Replies (1)

What would be differences between the archetypes in terms of Big 5 personality traits?
I thought about Agreeableness - a prophet would be low since he prefers his own vision, even if noone agrees with him. A civic would be high, since cooperation with others is more important for him. However, prophets are fascinated by the supernatural, and this is a trait of high agreeableness people.
Openness to Experience can also be relevant. A prophet is open to unusual and otherworldly experiences, while a civic prefers down to earth, well known things.
One lady on Personality Cafe prefers to define prophetic as high openness and low conscientiousness, and civic as low openness and high conscientiousness. Sounds good match.

What about nomads and artists?

Or could these be just cultural mindsets, which don't depend on personality?

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  How do you make the 4T go by faster?
Posted by: AspieMillennial - 11-20-2019, 10:13 PM - Forum: Turnings - Replies (15)

It's taking forever to end. I hate this time period. Any advice on how to kill time until it ends?

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  Millennial/Z and X/Millennial equivalent birthyears
Posted by: Ghost - 11-20-2019, 07:47 PM - Forum: Generations - Replies (1)

Here are the Millennial/Z equivalents of X/Millennial birthyears. 

Note that these are just estimated guesses. I'm only going to use 1992-2007 to make it not too long of a read.

This website (this is only talking about what is discussed on here)
1992: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1971 
1993: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1972
1994: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1973
1995: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1974
1996: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1975
1997: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1976
1998: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1977
1999: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1978
2000: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1979
2001: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1980
2002: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1981
2003: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1982
2004: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1983
2005: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1984
2006: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1985
2007: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1986

Sources, articles, other websites (this is talking about sites like Pew, Pricewaterhouse Coopers, McCrindle, etc)
1992: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1976
1993: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1977
1994: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1978
1995: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1979
1996: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1980
1997: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1981
1998: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1982
1999: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1983
2000: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1984
2001: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1985
2002: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1986
2003: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1987
2004: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1988
2005: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1989
2006: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1990
2007: Probably the Y/Z equivalent of 1991

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  National Liberalism: It's Still Very Much Alive
Posted by: Anthony '58 - 11-18-2019, 05:44 PM - Forum: General Political Discussion - Replies (10)

That's my take from Saturday's gubernatorial election in Louisiana.  The text comes courtesy of the award-winning (j/k) blog, Category 6 (the strength of "hurricane" sure to happen unless we cut out this divisiveness, post haste) on facebook.

In a rare non-Tuesday election, Democrat John Bel Edwards was re-elected governor of Louisiana - an outcome that is instructive on many levels.

First, it is living proof that national liberalism - the philosophy that Rose Montefusco identified her husband Tony in the short-lived 1975 NBC-TV series The Montefuscos as having - liberal on most things but conservative with the (Catholic) Church - is alive and well in America (Senators Joe Manchin, Bob Casey, and Doug Jones, Congressmen Daniel Lipinski and Henry Cuellar, and Governor Roy Cooper of North Carolina, just to scratch the surface, are clearly national liberals).

The term "national liberal," by the way, was coined by Michael Lind, who used it in his two bestsellers in the '90s, The Next American Nation (1995) and Up From Conservatism: Why The Right Is Wrong For America (1996; in the latter book he quoted Marvin Harris, who correctly identified the 1958-68 baby bust in his 1987 work Why Nothing Works: The Anthropology Of Daily Life) to denote those who are progressive economically but conservative socially.

Second, it proved that holding an election on a weekend as opposed to the traditional Tuesday can greatly help the Democrat, since it will increase, or more accurately, not reduce, the turnout of Democrat-leaning constituencies - and that could have been the decisive factor in the Louisiana governor's race, which Edwards won by just 51-49 per cent. If the election were held on a Tuesday instead, Edwards very likely would have lost.

A Catholic, a Baby Buster (born in 1966) and a Desert Storm veteran who is staunchly pro-life, Edwards signed a bill banning abortion after 15 weeks of a pregnancy in May of 2018, and just 12 months later doubled down on this by signing an even more stringent "heartbeat law." But with an eye on his party's progressive wing, Edwards expressed support for banning discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation with only the most narrowly-drawn religious exemptions, raising the minimum wage, and equal pay for men and women.
Michael Lind posited that Catholic voters could position themselves as a moderate foil to both the low-church Protestant fundamentalists on the right and the "secular humanists" on the left.

The re-election of John Bel Edwards - who added the "Bel" to his professional name to avoid confusion with John Edwards, the former North Carolina Senator and unsuccessful Vice Presidential candidate whose career was destroyed by an adultery scandal, and who closely resembles an actor who subsequently appeared on a SunSetter awning commercial - is living proof that the death of national liberalism as a viable political philosophy has been greatly exaggerated.

This John Edwards, or lookalike thereof, won't be hawking awnings on TV anytime soon.

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  Some bad Boomer memes
Posted by: Hintergrund - 11-18-2019, 09:47 AM - Forum: Baby Boomers - Replies (11)

If you think "OK Boomer" was offensive, better leave this thread now.


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  Theater Production about the Fourth Turning
Posted by: sbarrera - 11-15-2019, 07:17 AM - Forum: Society and Culture - Replies (10)

There is actually a play up Off-Broadway that incorporates the Fourth Turning idea. It's pretty amazing to consider - I guess it's completely mainstream now. You can thank Steve Bannon for that.

Here's one review - it's only up for a couple more days so you'll have to see it by by this weekend. I actually went and saw it a couple of weeks ago and I will post my own review as well.


Review: In ‘Heroes of the Fourth Turning,’ a Red-State Unicorn

An astonishing new play by Will Arbery risks a rare stage subject: Christian conservatism.

[Image: merlin_160767915_6e9f87f6-4b2a-47b3-9793...le=upscale]
From left: Zoë Winters, Jeb Kreager and Julia McDermott reuniting at a conservative college in “Heroes of the Fourth Turning.”Credit...Sara Krulwich/The New York Times
[Image: author-jesse-green-thumbLarge.jpg]
By Jesse Green

  • Oct. 7, 2019
They would not at first seem so different from you and me.

Teresa works in media and lives with an actress roommate. Kevin has a stultifying job but spends his off-hours watching “Portlandia” and devouring internet porn. Justin reads a lot of books and worries about the state of the country.
Yet unless you’re a hard-line Catholic conservative, you probably don’t have much in common with these people, who were undergrads together at Transfiguration College of Wyoming: an anti-abortion, anti-L.G.B.T. school where sex and cellphones (and federal funding) are forbidden.

And unless you live in an alternative theatrical universe programmed by David Mamet for The Heritage Foundation, you’ve probably never seen their like onstage.

That’s one of the things that makes Will Arbery’s “Heroes of the Fourth Turning,” which opened on Monday at Playwrights Horizons, something of a red-state unicorn. The astonishing new play explores the lives and ideas of conservatives with affection, understanding and deep knowledge — if not, ultimately, approval.

As such, it would be a welcome corrective almost regardless of its quality. When conservatives show up in contemporary plays, they are usually laughable blowhards, whining billionaires or troglodyte parents whose children scorn them. What use are they to anyone, even liberals who want to understand what they’re up against?

But Teresa (Zoë Winters), Kevin (John Zdrojeski) and Justin (Jeb Kreager) are serious, attractive, articulate young people — and troubled in ways we usually find sympathetic, at least in characters who didn’t vote for Donald J. Trump. (Kevin vomited after doing so.)

Mr. Arbery brings them together, seven years after graduation, for a reunion at Justin’s house; he has stayed in town and works at Transfiguration. Also at the party — which celebrates the appointment of their mentor, Gina Presson, as president of the school — is Gina’s daughter, Emily (Julia McDermott), who escaped Wyoming but has now returned with a debilitating mystery illness. During the course of a somewhat drunken dark night of the soul, the four friends catch up, argue, have crises and regroup.

Yet “Heroes of the Fourth Turning,” directed with nerves of steel by Danya Taymor, is no narcissistic midlife reunion dramedy like “The Big Chill.” The characters are still young enough to believe they can make significant changes in their lives — and in the life of their country, which they think and talk about constantly.

It’s no accident that Mr. Arbery sets the play just after the 2017 murder of Heather Heyer in Charlottesville, Va.; very much on everyone’s mind are the limits of the conservatism they inhaled and exalted at Transfiguration.

For Teresa, the limits come from within the movement: a movement weakened by craven “soy boys.” An Ann Coulter wannabe and self-professed Bannonite, she is a lightning-fast debater, a glib liar and a talented polemicist. (“Liberals are empathy addicts,” she says.) She sees herself as a hero of the “Fourth Turning” — the pseudoscientific theory that predicts political change on a generational timetable. As such, she is almost erotically fixated on the idea of near-term culture war, or literal war, as both rapture and ravishment.

Her three friends stake a variety of positions on the issues that feed Teresa’s outrage machine. Saintly Emily, who worked in a Chicago “pro-life women’s advocacy organization,” nevertheless counts among her friends an abortion-rights activist and — oh, the horror! — a drag queen. Justin, who packs a revolver and keeps a rifle handy, may argue that “proximity to L.G.B.T. is a threat to Christian children and families,” but he cares lovingly for Emily with no expectation of anything in return.

[Image: 07heroes3-articleLarge.jpg?quality=75&au...le=upscale]

Michele Pawk, right, as the college’s new president, debates John Zdrojeski, an alumnus still seeking his place in the world, while Mr. Kreager and Ms. Winters look on.Credit...Sara Krulwich/The New York Times

And Kevin is the screw-up, the holy fool, struggling to locate a viable philosophy in the aftermath of the collision of his education and real life. “Why the heck do we have to love the Virgin Mary?” he asks, almost heretically. Also: Why can’t Christians test their faith by befriending the enemy instead of hating or avoiding him? And, most important: Why can’t he get a girlfriend?

The conflicts among the four friends, and eventually with the formidable Gina as well, are carried out in a series of arguments and arias the playwright aptly likens to a fugue. And though the play is peppered with theatrical interruptions — a song, a story, some ominous sounds, fits of aggression and feints of emotion — you will not find “Heroes of the Fourth Turning” very entertaining if you don’t believe in the dramatic potential of debate.

Ms. Taymor’s uncompromising production makes the strongest possible case for that potential. As the play takes place at night on the edge of the Wyoming wilderness, most of Laura Jellinek’s set is forbidding empty space; the lighting (by Isabella Byrd) is unrelievedly dark. Justin Ellington’s sensational sound design is almost another haunted voice in the fugue. In this ominous environment, Ms. Taymor moves the actors around like chess pieces, always threatening or defending.

She also encourages them to dig for the emotional realities beneath their discourse. We get a strong sense, for instance, of how mandated premarital celibacy has warped everyone’s temperament, especially Kevin’s; Mr. Zdrojeski, in a big breakthrough performance, makes the tightrope walk of pathos and ludicrousness thrilling to watch. And Mr. Kreager, though much more contained, likewise backfills Justin’s political positions with longings he can hardly name.

Indeed, the conflict between engagement and recusal that is at the heart of the characters’ questioning of conservatism is also at the heart of their unhappiness. Even Teresa worries that her wedding won’t be beautiful because she is “too private” with her love. And though Gina (Michele Pawk in a terrific cameo) is a charismatic and even poetic leader, you have to question, as you look into Emily’s eyes, what kind of a mother she’s been.

But insights into the devil are not the point here, even if Teresa calls Mr. Trump “a Golem molded from the clay of mass media” who has “come to save us all.” (Gina calls him “chemotherapy”: vile but necessary.) To Mr. Arbery, conservatives aren’t devils at all; their bad behavior is much like everyone else’s. So is their good behavior. Surely it’s not irrelevant that his father, Glenn Arbery, is the president of Wyoming Catholic College, a school apparently identical in philosophy and location to the play’s Transfiguration.

That autobiographical likeness — also a feature of Mr. Arbery’s “Plano” — gives “Heroes of the Fourth Turning” an aura of absolute authenticity. It may also give the play a slight aura of overindulgence; there are probably a few turns too many in its characters’ convolutions.

What makes it riveting anyway is its eagerness to admit, and to subtly criticize by juxtaposition, all arguments. When Kevin, confused and self-loathing though he may be, articulates the desire to “let two competing facts exist in the same space,” he might as well be speaking for the play. Without two competing facts, we wouldn’t have much of a drama — or a democracy.

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