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A Virus Lie?
#1
I'm disgusted that to think this current CoronaStorm is a lie ... but I'm more disgusted it isn't the lie you think I am talking about.

First, either we are all gonna die, God is coming, Earth will disintegrate soon [insert fireball/doom] or not.

A lie seems to be happening, though.  Can anyone examine this with me? 

We have been leading up to today with this Virus advertised everywhere for a few weeks now
Today is Friday the 13th
The headline I read said something like "Stocks Buck From Lowest Since 1987"
President is shown shaking hands with ppl who may/may not be diagnosed
Fear Pandering rampant
Headlines today are about "Americans isolated in homes, sing with neighbors"
We head into a weekend where it's optimal Feartime to mull over how we will all die

I cannot BRING to you some motive or identity or even purpose for whatever this is.  I simply am of extreme doubt.  I don't even expect to get a cold, but if I do, I won't act any differently than I ever did.  Even with all this fearmongering, nothing feels much different.  That's just me.

but some ppl are going to become very wealthy with their stock if they are wise. 

So, being cyclical in my thought concerning history and the future, I had to think WHAT WAS happening in 1987 according to that headline?  A major stark market hit.  I had no stock at that time so I remember it best hearing Tom Brokaw opened the news with "The Fleecing Of America".  I enjoyed that series about how every now and then, events come along to rock to stock market.  Lots of people lose, but more win than lose for sure.  Not as some gamble, but as knowing when to prey on the loss of others with timing.  We won't go into that.

Is this a new Fleecing?

Is the Virus a lie?  As in, does it exist as a medical thing?  I'm sure.  Is it a Pandemic?  Is that coming?  I am not sure.  I read over a very simple "fact v fiction" about this Virus that a small percent of people die when having contracted it (number to fall) and this is true with every major Virus "upgrade" while our world gets smaller and smaller with global interaction.

THAT'S JUST THE WAY IT IS. 

When children are introduced to other children in, say, schools, they are infected with all kinds of things which the body transmutes and then immune.

MEDICAL FACT. 

Old people are at huge risk within that small percent.  Shaving the number down even further, substandard hygiene accessibility.  Shaving the number down further, proximity to original outbreaks.  Shaving that number down further, practicing common sense of BEING hygienic. 

Isn't this just Crisis #?,??? among the heap of Crisis factors in a 4th Turning?

wtf is all this coming from anyway?

To heap down death and destruction on a world already in tornadic heaving.  On Friday The 13th, leaving us the entire weekend with our stack of toilet paper and bottles water.. i mean, WHAT would this be if Netflix went down? 

Do we wait until Monday to see if the President is infected?  He was exposed to Brazil guy or whatever who is +/- depending what paper you have
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#2
A bit ago NASA showed a picture showing China’s reduction in pollution.  The NBA and March Madness have shut down.  The airlines are cutting capacity reflecting other reductions.  Too much money is being lost to believe the virus itself is not real.  Too many people would have to be in on the conspiracy for the conspiracy to work.

That does not mean the Wall Street egg heads won’t try to find a way to profit.  Thing is, it is mostly a bear market and real factors causing a downturn.  It is hard to make a lot of profit when the environment is going suddenly heavily bear.  For some companies that are going to be shut down such as airlines and sports related businesses, it seems smart to get out early.  But that is a way to save on something going down, rather than to profit.  The money is to be made later, when we hit bottom, when you might guess where the bottom is and which companies have a chance to recover and grow.  Sell when prices are high, and buy when they hit bottom.  

The company that makes Lysol and other medical related things are going to go up, but you would have to scrounge a bit and jump fast to get in on such options.  In short, I do not see the economic factors big in advocating a bear market. It is hard to see much short term gain.  Patience, Grasshopper.

The virus and its response are definitely a catalyst and may be this crisis’s trigger.  I do not anticipate that it will be primarily an economic crisis, but more in terms of having to accept scientific fact and let go of the lie based reality the reds have been living on.  Other catalysts have put us on the edge.  This one may push us over it.  Basically, the conservatives have lived for a while on lies, and we are being put in a place where we can’t afford them anymore.  This isn’t the whole show, but it may be enough to get us somewhere where other issues go too.
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#3
(03-13-2020, 07:21 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: A bit ago NASA showed a picture showing China’s reduction in pollution.  The NBA and March Madness have shut down.  The airlines are cutting capacity reflecting other reductions.  Too much money is being lost to believe the virus itself is not real.  Too many people would have to be in on the conspiracy for the conspiracy to work.

That does not mean the Wall Street egg heads won’t try to find a way to profit.  Thing is, it is mostly a bear market and real factors causing a downturn.  It is hard to make a lot of profit when the environment is going suddenly heavily bear.  For some companies that are going to be shut down such as airlines and sports related businesses, it seems smart to get out early.  But that is a way to save on something going down, rather than to profit.  The money is to be made later, when we hit bottom, when you might guess where the bottom is and which companies have a chance to recover and grow.  Sell when prices are high, and buy when they hit bottom.  

The company that makes Lysol and other medical related things are going to go up, but you would have to scrounge a bit and jump fast to get in on such options.  In short, I do not see the economic factors big in advocating a bear market. It is hard to see much short term gain.  Patience, Grasshopper.

The virus and its response are definitely a catalyst and may be this crisis’s trigger.  I do not anticipate that it will be primarily an economic crisis, but more in terms of having to accept scientific fact and let go of the lie based reality the reds have been living on.  Other catalysts have put us on the edge.  This one may push us over it.  Basically, the conservatives have lived for a while on lies, and we are being put in a place where we can’t afford them anymore.  This isn’t the whole show, but it may be enough to get us somewhere where other issues go too.

I don't mean there is not a medical virus threatening lives.  Not at all.  Perhaps I didn't mean the Virus itself is a lie, the Panic being spread is?  But that last part sounds too much like ppl I cannot even look at, so I definitely don't want to align myself with them.

I've no idea who or what is benefiting from all this, but cannot anyone see what I am saying?

Does a Crisis Period attract, maybe, more Crisis?  Do we hyperventilate and want to throw more fuel into existing fires while in a Crisis Period in the Saeculum?  Only qualified historians can speculate, I am not that.

Call me grasshoppeer again and Ima poot my foot in a place it's not supposed to be.

Maybe I have a hard time believing this is the "apocalypse" with 1.7m dead and all this.  And that this has all come to a head on Friday the 13th?  I was in Costco with a woman sprinting with her cart shouting to employee if there was still water.  And I've seen the toilet paper grabbers in 3 different stores now. 

I am not a 7th Day Advent or whomever those ppl are that don't believe in medicine?  But at the same time, this thing FEELS like a lie.  It feels like all the previous National and Global lies I'm convinced have been told in and around my lifetime.  Things that FEEL like untruths.  Not things I read in textbooks.
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#4
This is, to put it mildly, the appropriate time for clear and rational thinking and flexible responses. Such entities as the NBA, the NHL, the NCAA, and now MLB have decided to cut into seasons (with some risks of cancellation) rather than risk sporting events becoming the places most efficient at spreading the dangerous virus. When Big Business puts prevention of the spread of a horrible disease above immediate profit we have Crisis thinking.

I know: we have people capable of denying anything, whether of the Moon Landing, causes of the transmission of AIDS, the Holocaust, the JFK assassination, evolution, AGW, or a spherical earth. Non-rational thought is fine for art and fantasy, which have their usefulness; in public policy, non-rational thought kills. Denial of climate change may be the most dangerous of all of these. Holocaust denial is the most offensive.

It is hard to see Donald Trump as an adequate President for any time -- even when the scope of government was smaller, the military weapons were less capable of inflicting mass death, and the consequences for offending a major power can arrive in minutes instead of months. In a Crisis Era, someone who... OK, I have said it enough that it no longer bears repeating.. is completely unfit to be a steward of the world's largest and most intricate economy, wield the world's largest arsenal, and be the CEO of what is effectively the world's biggest enterprise.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#5
(03-13-2020, 11:05 PM)TheNomad Wrote: Does a Crisis Period attract, maybe, more Crisis?  Do we hyperventilate and want to throw more fuel into existing fires while in a Crisis Period in the Saeculum?  Only qualified historians can speculate, I am not that.

I do remember that being part of S&H theory.  As soon as the southerners left in the Civil War era, the legislative bills to start the railroad west started.  The southerners were not looking for westward expansion for fear of creating anti slavery votes, while many northerners were champing at the bits.  It wasn’t directly related to the trigger, but it wasn’t far to go.  

If Trump is rejected for not advocating a science based response to the virus and puts the Democrats solidly in, the democrats do have an agenda which will be pushed.  This includes but is not limited to global warming and bridge infrastructure, not to mention a right to health care illustrated by the virus.  They will have problems fully implementing things in a time of economic disruption, but I expect them to lean in that direction as soon as they can.

The post regeneracy part of a crisis, which is what we are talking about, usually involves a lot of trial and error practical problem solving. In the Industrial Age this usually included mobilizing and figuring out how to use the current technology of war, long disused compared to the rate of weapons development.  The unraveling and early crisis featured a lot of red denial that problems existed.  After all, they were rebelling against the expense and social change involved in solving problems.  They wanted small government, less taxes and to be left alone to live as they always have.  They wanted a break from the upheaval which was the awakening.  It is reasonable to expect the new mood will include solving these problems again.  

Is this what would be meant by “more Crisis”?  If so, the historians, at least S&H, have already spoken.  Others, more centered on linear thinking, perhaps anchored in the values of the unraveling, might well not expect it.

You seem to be speaking of crisis as being a bad thing, perhaps a time of upheaval and chaos.  I see it as a time when tools are taken up again after have being ignored for some time.  Problems long anticipated are addressed.  We have a different slant on things, neither of which is perhaps totally wrong.
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#6
(03-13-2020, 11:05 PM)TheNomad Wrote: … Maybe I have a hard time believing this is the "apocalypse" with 1.7m dead and all this.  And that this has all come to a head on Friday the 13th?  I was in Costco with a woman sprinting with her cart shouting to employee if there was still water.  And I've seen the toilet paper grabbers in 3 different stores now. 

I am not a 7th Day Advent or whomever those ppl are that don't believe in medicine?  But at the same time, this thing FEELS like a lie.  It feels like all the previous National and Global lies I'm convinced have been told in and around my lifetime.  Things that FEEL like untruths.  Not things I read in textbooks.

Keeping it simple, there has been a lack of concern about this disease.  Now, in typical American fashion, we're hewing to the opposite extreme.  Being over vigilant is better, but it's still not the right response.  The NY Times has opened their Coronavirus coverage to everyone.  Go here for a graphical tool that shows why doing things early and strenuously makes all the difference.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#7
There is a whiplash in the fairly sudden switch from Trump pushing no concern to the panic of the current response.  If you believed the White House has any credibility, this could be a cause for concern.

As a liberal, I of course give Trump no credibility.  If I have to look for a lie, it is obviously going to be the White House lying.  So, yes, it does feel like all the other issues Trump and the Republicans have lied about before.  It is like all the other issues Trump and the Republicans have lied about before.

The feeling may be one of clinging to the old values, or the beginning of realizing that they are flawed.
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#8
Stories came out of both Iran and Italy showing how they were slammed by a healthcare crisis (basically case overloaod overwhleming capacity) when they were unprepared for COVID-19. That is what is precipitating this reaction, as far as I can tell. The inability to test to a large degree exacerbates the uncertainty.

Is total societal shutdown an overreaction? One can never know. That is a paradox built into policymaking. You can never really be sure what would have happened had different decisions been made. Certainly the disruption is going to affect the economy and financial markets.
Steve Barrera

[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure

Saecular Pages
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#9
I would also add that trust in institutions being at a nadir also exacerbates the problem. No one trusts media (what is "fake news" and what isn't?). No one trusts the leadership at the national level, which is brazenly incompetent. There does seem to some hope in the strength of leadership at the local/regional level.
Steve Barrera

[A]lthough one would like to change today's world back to the spirit of one hundred years or more ago, it cannot be done. Thus it is important to make the best out of every generation. - Hagakure

Saecular Pages
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#10
(03-14-2020, 08:17 AM)David Horn Wrote: Keeping it simple, there has been a lack of concern about this disease.  Now, in typical American fashion, we're hewing to the opposite extreme.  Being over vigilant is better, but it's still not the right response.

If France is shutting down restaurants and cafes, then I'm not sure it is a uniquely American phenomenon.

To be panicked is human, over vigilant prudent?
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#11
(03-14-2020, 07:56 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(03-13-2020, 11:05 PM)TheNomad Wrote: Does a Crisis Period attract, maybe, more Crisis?  Do we hyperventilate and want to throw more fuel into existing fires while in a Crisis Period in the Saeculum?  Only qualified historians can speculate, I am not that.

The post regeneracy part of a crisis, which is what we are talking about, usually involves a lot of trial and error practical problem solving.  
About half of our fellow Americans are not at all interested.  They do not want problem solving.
To be clear, they will SAY they do.  But they do not.  I expressed this in another post "Please Just Don't Change".  
We have half of America that ONLY wants to stop the problem solving.  I am sorry if ppl do not agree with what I just said.  Perhaps someone reading this is among half of those who do not want problem solving.  Problem solving cannot be controlled.  It cannot be shown for what it will be (in advance) before it happens.  FEAR is what drives these folks to hold back at any cost.
How do we move forward with Problem Solving when so many just want 2007 again and FOREVER.  Granted, they were not really happy with what was happening at that time either, but they find NOW to be even more frightening because the changes are so great in scope.
In my opinion, this will last as long as it takes for these folks to simply die.  I can't say it in a more pleasant term.  They will vote and vote and support propaganda to do anything they physically can to make sure Problem Solving does not occur.
Is this not the very foundation of what it means to be stuck in a 4th Turning?
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#12
(03-14-2020, 08:17 AM)David Horn Wrote:
(03-13-2020, 11:05 PM)TheNomad Wrote: … Maybe I have a hard time believing this is the "apocalypse" with 1.7m dead and all this.  And that this has all come to a head on Friday the 13th?  I was in Costco with a woman sprinting with her cart shouting to employee if there was still water.  And I've seen the toilet paper grabbers in 3 different stores now. 

I am not a 7th Day Advent or whomever those ppl are that don't believe in medicine?  But at the same time, this thing FEELS like a lie.  It feels like all the previous National and Global lies I'm convinced have been told in and around my lifetime.  Things that FEEL like untruths.  Not things I read in textbooks.

Keeping it simple, there has been a lack of concern about this disease.  
It's not a Disease.  Let's educate.  Back when it was anti-Jesus to touch someone with AIDS, no one wanted to know
HIV is a VIRUS.  It can lead to AIDS but it may not with proper medical attention and education.
AIDS is a Disease that can lead to death but does not always when science learns to address it medically.
Can we just learn the difference?
Plus, you don't get AIDS from average physical contact.  The transmission of this Virus in 2020 is still just unclear but has been said often spreading through the eyes.  You wouldn't know that with the rampant images everywhere of ppl in surgical masks.
Education is important.  The more educated ppl are, the better everything is usually for everyone.  That's why it shocks me when many folks are against education of many kinds.......... as if "don't spend my tax on the education of others" doesn't end up benefiting them eventually anyway.  So selfish, but so goddamned ignorant.
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#13
(03-14-2020, 05:45 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(03-14-2020, 08:17 AM)David Horn Wrote: Keeping it simple, there has been a lack of concern about this disease.  Now, in typical American fashion, we're hewing to the opposite extreme.  Being over vigilant is better, but it's still not the right response.

If France is shutting down restaurants and cafes, then I'm not sure it is a uniquely American phenomenon.

To be panicked is human, over vigilant prudent?

Certainly, doing too much beats the hell out of doing too little.  My biggest concern is perception.  Trump indicates that he's bringing out the big guns, and everything will be OK soon enough … except it won't.  A vaccine is at least a year away.  We still have no fool-proof way to assure ourselves that people aren't working sick, so paranoia is to be expected.  But first and foremost, the actual pandemic pattern is alterable, but cannot be eliminated.  If we lower the rate of infections by social distancing and other social practices (certainly a best practice), then we also stretch the pandemic timeline into the future.  It's a near certainty that we will be running a nationwide election while the pandemic is still fully active. 

So what happens if the American attention span is too short to accommodate the right long-term response?  Trump seems to be acting like this can be fixed in a few weeks.  It can't.  Let's agree: the Italian model is one to avoid, not emulate.
Intelligence is not knowledge and knowledge is not wisdom, but they all play well together.
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#14
Could we be entering a regeneracy? Or getting ready for it?

Things that we used to defer we take with deadly seriousness -- and if the current leadership proves inadequately swift in its response, others bypass them. OK, the President over-reacts on travel... but note well: international travelers tend to be upscale in education and income, the sorts who used to be "Rockefeller Republicans" who have drifted away from the GOP and look like the difference between Reagan wins and Obama wins.

COVID-19 scares people. Sports leagues have been deferring or suspending seasons. Colleges are starting early spring breaks (not to encourage people to travel anywhere, but to slow the spread of a nasty virus) only to continue the semester on line. Commonplace meetings get cancelled.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#15
(03-14-2020, 12:50 PM)sbarrera Wrote: I would also add that trust in institutions being at a nadir also exacerbates the problem. No one trusts media (what is "fake news" and what isn't?). No one trusts the leadership at the national level, which is brazenly incompetent. There does seem to some hope in the strength of leadership at the local/regional level.

For-profit institutions have something to protect: their credibility. Maybe people are willing to take chances just to shave some pennies in cost in return for some risks and inconvenience if times are tough, but those entities that cut corners and expose customers to risk or offer shoddy or risky wares are the ones that lose market share.

It helps little that the leader of the biggest of all enterprises (the United States Government) is beginning to look foolish.  Big Business has taken the lead over a President excessively fond of risk, whether in accepting pseudoscience or financial leverage. Just look at the NBA, NHL, and MLB -- and the profit-generating sector of the NCAA. 

Institutions may lose credibility in a culture in which anyone acting as a critic is a muckraker, but institutions lose even more credibility when their leaders are exposed for incompetence or corruption. 

By the way -- trading in the NYSE has today (so far) absorbed losses that gut all the gain in share prices that occurred while Trump has been President. We seem still to be in the "falling knife" phase of the share-price cycle. Programmed buys may have stopped the falling knife on Friday only for the slight recovery to itself be devoured. Of course the closes are the official measures. In my experience, except for the short-lived and inexplicable drop of 1987, values fall until P/E ratios revert to reality with return (dividends and retained earnings) become close to a rate paid to savers.

But if the President knows more than the diplomats, spy chiefs, senior military officers, and scientists he can also know more than the physicians and the administrators of public health -- especially if he has a personality cult behind him.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#16
(03-16-2020, 01:58 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: But if the President knows more than the diplomats, spy chiefs, senior military officers, and scientists he can also know more than the physicians and the administrators of public health -- especially if he has a personality cult behind him.

Can you have a personality cult of one? Wink We seem to be heading in that direction.
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#17
(03-16-2020, 02:11 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:
(03-16-2020, 01:58 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: But if the President knows more than the diplomats, spy chiefs, senior military officers, and scientists he can also know more than the physicians and the administrators of public health -- especially if he has a personality cult behind him.

Can you have a personality cult of one?  Wink   We seem to be heading in that direction.

Two became zero in Romania on December 25, 1989. 

....The Dow Jones went down nearly 3000 points today from the Friday close.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#18
one of this things that this is changing is the 3T idea that we need to examine an issue from all perspectives & get consensus before acting; all of a sudden decisions - really major decisions impacting billions of dollars - are being made in days if not hours ... going forward the decision making process will look at lot different, regardless of the issue.
"But there's a difference between error and dishonesty, and it's not a trivial difference." - Ben Greenman
"Relax, it'll be all right, and by that I mean it will first get worse."
"How was I supposed to know that there'd be consequences for my actions?" - Gina Linetti
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#19
The corona crisis is not a lie, because this virus spreads easily and fast, and people can see that. And it kills a lot of people, even though the vast majority have mild symptoms. And the only way to stop it is to isolate ourselves. That means closing everything down for a few weeks. We have no other recourse.

The panic is certainly on Wall Street. I don't really understand it. Where are the investors putting the money they are taking out? This may be irrational. Business is getting bad, but we don't know how long the crisis will last yet. Riding it out seems the shrewder course.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#20
(03-16-2020, 03:46 PM)tg63 Wrote: one of this things that this is changing is the 3T idea that we need to examine an issue from all perspectives & get consensus before acting; all of a sudden decisions - really major decisions impacting billions of dollars - are being made in days if not hours ... going forward the decision making process will look at lot different, regardless of the issue.

I hope that this sets a new pattern. It may not, at least not immediately, since the last panic in which this happened in 2008 did not. But we are heading into a time of turmoil and change. The status quo has been maintained and needed change held back for 40 years. Steady decline and stalemate can't go on forever. We must set a new course or fade away.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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