My Millennial Saeculum Theory

[RELFantastic]

Soomers: April 12, 1945 (Truman inauguration) through March 12, 1947 (start of Cold War)

Baby Boomers: March 12, 1947 (start of Cold War) through October 16, 1962 (start of Cuban Missile Crisis)

Jones: October 16, 1962 (start of Cuban Missile Crisis) through March 5, 1965 (US sent first combat troops to Vietnam)

Generation X or the 13th Generation: March 5, 1965 (US sent first combat troops to Vietnam) through January 20, 1981 (Reagan inauguration)

Xennials: January 20, 1981 (Reagan inauguration) through August 23, 1984 (premiere of Morning in America)

Millennials: August 23, 1984 (premiere of Morning in America) through January 20, 2001 (Bush inauguration)

Zillennials: January 20, 2001 (Bush inauguration) through March 20, 2003 (start of the Iraq War)

Zoomers: March 20, 2003 (start of Iraq War) through December 1, 2019 (first COVID-19 case)

Zalphas: December 1, 2019 (first COVID-19 case) through September 11, 2021 (end of the Afghanistan War)

[Ghost]

I agree with this, but IMO, "Soomers" doesn't exist. It is more like a big divide between 1945 and 1946.

[Eric the Green]

(06-01-2021, 07:45 PM)RELFantastic Wrote: Soomers: April 12, 1945 (Truman inauguration) through March 12, 1947 (start of Cold War)

Baby Boomers: March 12, 1947 (start of Cold War) through October 16, 1962 (start of Cuban Missile Crisis)

Jones: October 16, 1962 (start of Cuban Missile Crisis) through March 5, 1965 (US sent first combat troops to Vietnam)

Generation X or the 13th Generation: March 5, 1965 (US sent first combat troops to Vietnam) through January 20, 1981 (Reagan inauguration)

Xennials: January 20, 1981 (Reagan inauguration) through August 23, 1984 (premiere of Morning in America)

Millennials: August 23, 1984 (premiere of Morning in America) through January 20, 2001 (Bush inauguration)

Zillennials: January 20, 2001 (Bush inauguration) through March 20, 2003 (start of the Iraq War)

Zoomers: March 20, 2003 (start of Iraq War) through December 1, 2019 (first COVID-19 case)

Zalphas: December 1, 2019 (first COVID-19 case) through September 11, 2021 (end of the Afghanistan War)

Not a bad idea, but it makes the saeculum go too fast. The authors said 84 years is the archetypal length, similar to the average length of a human life, and 21 years per generation. I don't see that things have speeded up; only tech gimmicks.

[David Horn]

(06-01-2021, 07:49 PM)Ghost Wrote: I agree with this, but IMO, "Soomers" doesn't exist. It is more like a big divide between 1945 and 1946.

In my opinion, there are periods of rapid change, but no "big divides".  I was born in 1947, and knew many born in the early 40s.  Very early 40s cohorts were decidedly different from people in mine, but the deltas were small between '45s and '47s.  We've discussed cusps here ad nauseum, so I'll give that a rest, but there are few if any stark lines of division in society.  The few that do occur are due to cataclysm of some sort. The end of WW-II might qualify, but less on the very young.

[galaxy]

A proposal for a Zillennial definition: those who are old enough to remember the onset of the 4T in 2008, but who also experienced the period of online school, which I believe will come to be remembered as a quintessential Z (or at least older-Z) experience.

That's people born from either mid-2001 or mid-2002 to 2004.

Those born in early 2001, myself (January 4) included, were part of the last cohort to graduate high school before the pandemic began, and are therefore the last unambiguous Millennials.*

Those born in late 2001 or early 2002 had only 2-3 months of online, tacked on to the end of an otherwise typical high school experience. So they're on the edge.

Late 2002 to probably around late 2004 is the true borderline zone.

Those who were born in 2005 or later have no memory at all of any time before the Crisis, and so are unambiguous Z.


*you could argue that the last unambiguous Millennials are the youngest ones who remember 9/11, probably born in 1998, but personally, I really doubt the significance of that event as a major generational marker. It's the "alienating event," corresponding to probably either WWI or the recession of 1920-1921. Though it looms large in people's memories, and there were a few big changes (such as the source of the name of the "Homeland Generation,") the reality is that everyday life in America wasn't really that especially different between 1999 and 2004. The difference between 2008 and 2013 is far more dramatic, with the current ongoing period of political realignment beginning with the 2008 election (analogous to 1968) and the social media/internet revolution taking place from roughly 2010 to 2015.

[Tim Randal Walker]

Trying to recall the guy's name....who described September 11th as a Phony Fourth. The timing was such that the USA did not return to an unambiguous Unraveling mood, but Iraq/Afghanistan were fought like 3T wars.

[pbrower2a]

(06-07-2021, 03:09 PM)galaxy Wrote: A proposal for a Zillennial definition: those who are old enough to remember the onset of the 4T in 2008, but who also experienced the period of online school, which I believe will come to be remembered as a quintessential Z (or at least older-Z) experience.

That's people born from either mid-2001 or mid-2002 to 2004.

Those born in early 2001, myself (January 4) included, were part of the last cohort to graduate high school before the pandemic began, and are therefore the last unambiguous Millennials.*

Those born in late 2001 or early 2002 had only 2-3 months of online, tacked on to the end of an otherwise typical high school experience. So they're on the edge.

Late 2002 to probably around late 2004 is the true borderline zone.

Those who were born in 2005 or later have no memory at all of any time before the Crisis, and so are unambiguous Z.


*you could argue that the last unambiguous Millennials are the youngest ones who remember 9/11, probably born in 1998, but personally, I really doubt the significance of that event as a major generational marker. It's the "alienating event," corresponding to probably either WWI or the recession of 1920-1921. Though it looms large in people's memories, and there were a few big changes (such as the source of the name of the "Homeland Generation,") the reality is that everyday life in America wasn't really that especially different between 1999 and 2004. The difference between 2008 and 2013 is far more dramatic, with the current ongoing period of political realignment beginning with the 2008 election (analogous to 1968) and the social media/internet revolution taking place from roughly 2010 to 2015.

You may be right, especially should the Crisis of 2020 be approaching an end. Maybe there is not quite the heroism in the War against COVID-19 as there was in the war against the demonic powers of Axis fascism, the war that put an end to the disgrace of slavery, or the end of the pre-Union chaos that ended only with the establishment of the Constitution in 1787. Artist/Adaptive generations come of age just as the potential for heroism comes to an end. There is a huge difference between storming Iwo Jima and doing occupation duty in Japan. 

Civil life is often much easier for adult Artist/Adaptive types after a Crisis because the hardships of a Crisis and the inequities of a 3T are past.

[Eric the Green]

(06-07-2021, 06:50 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Trying to recall the guy's name....who described September 11th as a Phony Fourth.  The timing was such that the USA did not return to an unambiguous Unraveling mood, but Iraq/Afghanistan were fought like 3T wars.

I have certainly expressed that view.

[Captain Genet]

(06-07-2021, 03:09 PM)galaxy Wrote: *you could argue that the last unambiguous Millennials are the youngest ones who remember 9/11, probably born in 1998, but personally, I really doubt the significance of that event as a major generational marker. It's the "alienating event," corresponding to probably either WWI or the recession of 1920-1921. Though it looms large in people's memories, and there were a few big changes (such as the source of the name of the "Homeland Generation,") the reality is that everyday life in America wasn't really that especially different between 1999 and 2004. The difference between 2008 and 2013 is far more dramatic, with the current ongoing period of political realignment beginning with the 2008 election (analogous to 1968) and the social media/internet revolution taking place from roughly 2010 to 2015.

I insists that the changes started in 2006:
-The Iraqi civil war made the public mood swing in anti-war direction, anti-neocon direction.
-MySpace became fashionable, marking the beginning of internet revolution. In early 2000s it was still commonplace to say computers are only for nerds.
-changes in musical trends, e.g. Amy Winehouse became popular and she was an important figure for early wave millennials

Or you can push it back and say the 3T started to evaporate after Katrina.

[galaxy]

(06-09-2021, 04:08 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(06-07-2021, 03:09 PM)galaxy Wrote: *you could argue that the last unambiguous Millennials are the youngest ones who remember 9/11, probably born in 1998, but personally, I really doubt the significance of that event as a major generational marker. It's the "alienating event," corresponding to probably either WWI or the recession of 1920-1921. Though it looms large in people's memories, and there were a few big changes (such as the source of the name of the "Homeland Generation,") the reality is that everyday life in America wasn't really that especially different between 1999 and 2004. The difference between 2008 and 2013 is far more dramatic, with the current ongoing period of political realignment beginning with the 2008 election (analogous to 1968) and the social media/internet revolution taking place from roughly 2010 to 2015.

I insists that the changes started in 2006:
-The Iraqi civil war made the public mood swing in anti-war direction, anti-neocon direction.
-MySpace became fashionable, marking the beginning of internet revolution. In early 2000s it was still commonplace to say computers are only for nerds.
-changes in musical trends, e.g. Amy Winehouse became popular and she was an important figure for early wave millennials

Or you can push it back and say the 3T started to evaporate after Katrina.

Well, turnings never change in an instant. The moment we use to define the start is just the moment when it went from being 51/49 to 49/51. The first signs of the coming 4T came after 9/11, but the country was very clearly in more of an Unraveling mood still. It wasn't definitively Crisis until late 2008. The first signs of the 3T came in the late 70s (around 76 onward maybe), even though it didn't fully begin until the "Morning in America." 1960 presidential campaign ads seem surprisingly "awaken-y," even though that turning didn't begin until several years later. And so on.

We've been seeing emerging 1T features since around 2017, which is part of why I believe we'll reach the start point by around 2025 or so.

[Eric the Green]

(06-09-2021, 04:08 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(06-07-2021, 03:09 PM)galaxy Wrote: *you could argue that the last unambiguous Millennials are the youngest ones who remember 9/11, probably born in 1998, but personally, I really doubt the significance of that event as a major generational marker. It's the "alienating event," corresponding to probably either WWI or the recession of 1920-1921. Though it looms large in people's memories, and there were a few big changes (such as the source of the name of the "Homeland Generation,") the reality is that everyday life in America wasn't really that especially different between 1999 and 2004. The difference between 2008 and 2013 is far more dramatic, with the current ongoing period of political realignment beginning with the 2008 election (analogous to 1968) and the social media/internet revolution taking place from roughly 2010 to 2015.

I insists that the changes started in 2006:
-The Iraqi civil war made the public mood swing in anti-war direction, anti-neocon direction.
-MySpace became fashionable, marking the beginning of internet revolution. In early 2000s it was still commonplace to say computers are only for nerds.
-changes in musical trends, e.g. Amy Winehouse became popular and she was an important figure for early wave millennials

Or you can push it back and say the 3T started to evaporate after Katrina.

The personal computer revolution began in 1984 with the MacIntosh and the commercial in which Steve Jobs showed someone breaking through 1984. The internet got going in the 1980s and the web in 1993. Graphical user interface from apple was further spread and developed with Windows 95. Social media started in 2003 and was just a further use of the internet and personal computers. No, the 3T was the computer boom and the dot come boom. We were all nerds in the 3T. 

And the entire 2000s pop was dominated by sexy videos and parties in the USA songs. Justin Bieber came along in 2009 and made pop more musical again for a little while at least, for the younger millennials. He had many imitators too, and sponsored Carly Rae Jepsen. Soon afterward Pharrell became more than a rap artist and put out some real songs too for a while, and One Direction brought back boyband sounds and song styles from the 70s and 80s. There hasn't been much change from 3T pop trends though, really, except that the sex is less overt. The girl singers are doing real well. Rap is still a thing.

The anti-Iraq War sentiment got going from the start of the war. Huge demonstrations, and the biggest ones ever in Europe, preceded the war and delayed it by a month, and a flood of literature followed. John Kerry campaigned against it in 2004 and got a huge millennial vote. 6th-year congressional elections always go against the party occupying the White House, and congress didn't do anything about the war anyway, so the 2006 election was insignificant from a turning point of view. But in 2008 the USA was going over a financial cliff leading to a great depression, and only lessons learned after 1929 limited the crash to a great recession-- which the Republicans manage to prolong indefinitely with their neo-liberal obstruction and their tea party.

Look for the 1T to start in 2028-29, and not a moment before. But I think, though things will still be very unsettled, with a possible civil war and a new foreign involvement breaking out in 2025, consensus will be building. So I expect we'll have a thread here entitled "Are we in the 1T yet?" Just like we had threads about whether we were in the 4T yet, and people still disagree about the date it started.

[David Horn]

(06-08-2021, 06:17 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-07-2021, 06:50 PM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: Trying to recall the guy's name....who described September 11th as a Phony Fourth.  The timing was such that the USA did not return to an unambiguous Unraveling mood, but Iraq/Afghanistan were fought like 3T wars.

I have certainly expressed that view.

I recall the first use of the term too, but can't remember who put it out there.  Like you both, I was in the not-ready-for-prime-time club, and that's proven to be a solid choice.  Are there still advocates of a 9/11 start of the 4T?

[Tim Randal Walker]

The Phony Fourth thread was archived, and was started by Zarathustra back in 2003. For some reason the name "Sean" comes to mind. Whatever his actual name, he mentioned a guinea pig named Siren.

[David Horn]

(06-12-2021, 11:20 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: The Phony Fourth thread was archived, and was started by Zarathustra back in 2003.  For some reason the name "Sean" comes to mind.  Whatever his actual name, he mentioned a guinea pig named Siren.

That would be Sean Love.  He's still active on the hidden Facebook group.

[Tim Randal Walker]

Yeah, thinking back, the Awakening mood started fading in the late seventies, and just barely existed in the early eighties.

[Eric the Green]

(06-12-2021, 11:26 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-12-2021, 11:20 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: The Phony Fourth thread was archived, and was started by Zarathustra back in 2003.  For some reason the name "Sean" comes to mind.  Whatever his actual name, he mentioned a guinea pig named Siren.

That would be Sean Love.  He's still active on the hidden Facebook group.

And in the new open facebook fourth-turning discussion group.

[RELFantastic]

(06-07-2021, 03:09 PM)galaxy Wrote: A proposal for a Zillennial definition: those who are old enough to remember the onset of the 4T in 2008, but who also experienced the period of online school, which I believe will come to be remembered as a quintessential Z (or at least older-Z) experience.

That's people born from either mid-2001 or mid-2002 to 2004.

Those born in early 2001, myself (January 4) included, were part of the last cohort to graduate high school before the pandemic began, and are therefore the last unambiguous Millennials.*

Those born in late 2001 or early 2002 had only 2-3 months of online, tacked on to the end of an otherwise typical high school experience. So they're on the edge.

Late 2002 to probably around late 2004 is the true borderline zone.

Those who were born in 2005 or later have no memory at all of any time before the Crisis, and so are unambiguous Z.


*you could argue that the last unambiguous Millennials are the youngest ones who remember 9/11, probably born in 1998, but personally, I really doubt the significance of that event as a major generational marker. It's the "alienating event," corresponding to probably either WWI or the recession of 1920-1921. Though it looms large in people's memories, and there were a few big changes (such as the source of the name of the "Homeland Generation,") the reality is that everyday life in America wasn't really that especially different between 1999 and 2004. The difference between 2008 and 2013 is far more dramatic, with the current ongoing period of political realignment beginning with the 2008 election (analogous to 1968) and the social media/internet revolution taking place from roughly 2010 to 2015.

Eh Class of 2020 not being considered a cusp while Class of 2022 is seems like a stretch IMO. Being born after 9/11 and coming of age after COVID-19 started is hard to ignore, no offense. They may not be the start of Z, but they are definitely cusp.

Though late 2002-late 2004 as cusp (of what you proposed) would actually make Class of 2021 last Millennials, which I would be fine with.

Personally, I would go with either early 2001-early 2003 or late 2000-mid 2003.

Early 2001-early 2003 were born around 9/11, would have been 5-7 during the Great Recession, and would have been coming of age around the COVID-19 pandemic. Maybe you can extend it slightly to late 2000-mid 2003.

Class of 2019 (b. 2000-2001) leans M for coming of age during Trump, Class of 2020 (b. 2001-2002) is 50/50 for coming of age during both Trump and COVID-19, and Class of 2021 (b. 2002-2003) leans Z for coming of age during COVID-19.

Class of 2018 (b. 1999-2000) would be last fully Millennial class, being born entirely during the second millennium as well as during Clinton, while Class of 2022 (b.2003-2004) will be first fully Homelander class, being born entirely after Homeland Security started as well as Iraq.

[David Horn]

(06-12-2021, 12:59 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(06-12-2021, 11:26 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(06-12-2021, 11:20 AM)Tim Randal Walker Wrote: The Phony Fourth thread was archived, and was started by Zarathustra back in 2003.  For some reason the name "Sean" comes to mind.  Whatever his actual name, he mentioned a guinea pig named Siren.

That would be Sean Love.  He's still active on the hidden Facebook group.

And in the new open facebook fourth-turning discussion group.

I can't see how Facebook works as a discussion forum though.  It's "post your opinion", then someone else does the same.  It's not threaded (unless you make a point of replying to someone specific).  Even then, not so much.

[RELFantastic]

(06-09-2021, 11:21 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(06-09-2021, 04:08 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(06-07-2021, 03:09 PM)galaxy Wrote: *you could argue that the last unambiguous Millennials are the youngest ones who remember 9/11, probably born in 1998, but personally, I really doubt the significance of that event as a major generational marker. It's the "alienating event," corresponding to probably either WWI or the recession of 1920-1921. Though it looms large in people's memories, and there were a few big changes (such as the source of the name of the "Homeland Generation,") the reality is that everyday life in America wasn't really that especially different between 1999 and 2004. The difference between 2008 and 2013 is far more dramatic, with the current ongoing period of political realignment beginning with the 2008 election (analogous to 1968) and the social media/internet revolution taking place from roughly 2010 to 2015.

I insists that the changes started in 2006:
-The Iraqi civil war made the public mood swing in anti-war direction, anti-neocon direction.
-MySpace became fashionable, marking the beginning of internet revolution. In early 2000s it was still commonplace to say computers are only for nerds.
-changes in musical trends, e.g. Amy Winehouse became popular and she was an important figure for early wave millennials

Or you can push it back and say the 3T started to evaporate after Katrina.

Well, turnings never change in an instant. The moment we use to define the start is just the moment when it went from being 51/49 to 49/51. The first signs of the coming 4T came after 9/11, but the country was very clearly in more of an Unraveling mood still. It wasn't definitively Crisis until late 2008. The first signs of the 3T came in the late 70s (around 76 onward maybe), even though it didn't fully begin until the "Morning in America." 1960 presidential campaign ads seem surprisingly "awaken-y," even though that turning didn't begin until several years later. And so on.

We've been seeing emerging 1T features since around 2017, which is part of why I believe we'll reach the start point by around 2025 or so.

2017 is definitely not 1T. The Trump era is safely 4T. Safe 4T is 2008-2021 (Great Recession to COVID-19 Pandemic), while the broad 4T is probably 2005-2024.

[nguyenivy]

(06-09-2021, 11:21 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(06-09-2021, 04:08 AM)Captain Genet Wrote:

(06-07-2021, 03:09 PM)galaxy Wrote: *you could argue that the last unambiguous Millennials are the youngest ones who remember 9/11, probably born in 1998, but personally, I really doubt the significance of that event as a major generational marker. It's the "alienating event," corresponding to probably either WWI or the recession of 1920-1921. Though it looms large in people's memories, and there were a few big changes (such as the source of the name of the "Homeland Generation,") the reality is that everyday life in America wasn't really that especially different between 1999 and 2004. The difference between 2008 and 2013 is far more dramatic, with the current ongoing period of political realignment beginning with the 2008 election (analogous to 1968) and the social media/internet revolution taking place from roughly 2010 to 2015.

I insists that the changes started in 2006:
-The Iraqi civil war made the public mood swing in anti-war direction, anti-neocon direction.
-MySpace became fashionable, marking the beginning of internet revolution. In early 2000s it was still commonplace to say computers are only for nerds.
-changes in musical trends, e.g. Amy Winehouse became popular and she was an important figure for early wave millennials

Or you can push it back and say the 3T started to evaporate after Katrina.

Well, turnings never change in an instant. The moment we use to define the start is just the moment when it went from being 51/49 to 49/51. The first signs of the coming 4T came after 9/11, but the country was very clearly in more of an Unraveling mood still. It wasn't definitively Crisis until late 2008. The first signs of the 3T came in the late 70s (around 76 onward maybe), even though it didn't fully begin until the "Morning in America." 1960 presidential campaign ads seem surprisingly "awaken-y," even though that turning didn't begin until several years later. And so on.

We've been seeing emerging 1T features since around 2017, which is part of why I believe we'll reach the start point by around 2025 or so.

Which 1T features & why 2017 in particular?