Quote:CO: Clinton 43, Trump 35
FL: Clinton 44, Trump 37
NC: Clinton 44, Trump 38
VA: Clinton 44, Trump 35

Poll conducted from July 5-11.

Quote:(KUTV) The Republican and Democrat national conventions are over and as the dust starts to settle, it looks like Hillary Clinton has a chance to carry Utah in the U.S. presidential election.

A new Hinckley Institute-Salt Lake Tribune poll shows the two are virtually tied with 35 percent for Donald Trump and 36 percent for Hillary Clinton. That is as close as a Democratic candidate has been to victory in more than half a century.

Clinton declined to campaign in the state during primary season and came in the spring only to raise money. Republican Mitt Romney, popular in Utah, spoke strongly against Trump. Utah Republican Sen. Mike Lee fought against Trump at the Republican National Convention and said he doesn't know if he will vote for for his party's candidate, Trump.

Utah has been the most Republican state for 40 years but that could change with Trump's run toward the White House.

(07-29-2016, 02:20 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: One sign of the advance of senile dementia is belligerence. I see this in Donald Trump. It proves little, and such is far from enough to diagnose any disease.

(08-02-2016, 11:32 AM)The Wonkette Wrote:

(07-29-2016, 02:20 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: One sign of the advance of senile dementia is belligerence. I see this in Donald Trump. It proves little, and such is far from enough to diagnose any disease.

Yes, but hasn't he had this characteristic all of his life?  I have many issues with the Donald, but I don't believe senile dementia is one of them.  

(08-02-2016, 06:42 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote:

(08-02-2016, 12:52 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: I kind of agree with wonkette; I don't think he was quite as unhinged in his previous years as he is now; at least verbally. We had one senile president before. Some people think it worked out great, but I didn't agree.

If you're talking about Reagan he was asymptomatic until after he retired.

Quote:In any case, Trump is either a cynical play acting shit stirrer or does in fact have something wrong with his noggin / nervous system.

Quote:50. As you may know, the parents of a Muslim-American soldier who died while serving in the U.S. Army in Iraq appeared at the Democratic Convention and the father spoke out against Donald Trump.  How familiar are you with Trump’s response to comments by the parents?

51. How do you feel about Trump’s response -- would you say it was in bounds or out of
bounds?


In bounds / Out of bounds (Don’t know)
1-2 Aug 16 19% /  69%

[ROTATE NEXT TWO QUESTIONS]
42. Do you think Hillary Clinton has the temperament to serve effectively as president?

Yes No (Don’t know)
31 Jul-2 Aug 16 64% 34%

43. Do you think Donald Trump has the temperament to serve effectively as president?

Yes No (Don’t know)
31 Jul-2 Aug 16 37% 61%

[ROTATE NEXT TWO QUESTIONS]
44. Do you think Hillary Clinton has the knowledge to serve effectively as president?

Yes No (Don’t know)
31 Jul-2 Aug 16 72% 26%

45. Do you think Donald Trump has the knowledge to serve effectively as president?

Yes No (Don’t know)
31 Jul-2 Aug 16 40% 59%

Quote:Those numbers rival Barack Obama’s performance among those groups against Mitt Romney in 2012, when he won among women by 11 points (55-44 percent), blacks by 87 (93-6 percent), Hispanics by 44 (71-27 percent), and voters under 30 by 23 (60-37 percent).

Trump is the choice among whites by 10 points (49-39 percent), men by 5 (45-40 percent), white evangelical Christians by 50 (69-19 percent), and whites without a college degree by 16 (52-36 percent).

Right now he’s underperforming his 2012 counterpart. Romney won whites by 20 points (59-39 percent), men by 7 (52-45 percent), white evangelicals by 57 (78-21 percent), and whites without a degree by 26 (62-36 percent).
Trump bests Clinton among veterans by 53-39 percent.

Twelve percent of Republicans back Clinton. That’s more than double the number of Democrats supporting Trump (five percent). And while Clinton garners more support among Democrats (87 percent) than Trump does among Republicans (78 percent), she trails among independents. They go for the Republican by 41-33 percent. In 2012, independents went for Romney by 50-45 percent.

(08-03-2016, 07:56 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: A mass of Russian troops is shown pouring into Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland. The screen splits, bringing in another vignette of PLA troops coursing into Thailand alternating with scenes of warfare in the South China Sea. The screen splits again, showing massive soup lines here in the US. The screen makes one final split, showing Trump uttering some sort of insane statement. Then, the entire set of 4 vignettes gets replaced by a flash and subsequent image of a massive thermonuclear explosion.

Quote:I expect lots of polls to pop up tomorrow. They usually do on Wednesday.

Quote:The new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, released Thursday, shows Clinton with a nine-point lead over the New York businessman.
Another survey, from McClatchy-Marist, puts Clinton’s lead at 15 points. That poll was also released Thursday. Clinton led by just three points in the same poll last month.
Still another poll, released Wednesday by Fox News, gave Clinton a 10-point lead.
Trump can take comfort in a key part of the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll: Voters still give him an edge on the economy, with 46% saying he’d do the best on economic matters and 42% favoring Clinton. Yet Clinton is catching up. In June, she faced a 10-point deficit on the same question.

Quote:Should Trump be howling about the ‘bad’ economy?

...The election is 95 days away, and it’s pretty easy to reckon roughly what the data are going to look like as America heads off to cote. And it’s maybe not a picture Trump will want to focus voters’ attention on, especially after the much better-than-expected 255,000 July gain in jobs that the Labor Department reported Friday morning.
First, unemployment may well be pushing toward 4.5% by the October jobs report that hits the Friday before the election. It’s 4.9% now, holding steady from last month despite the big job gain. But the gains of the last two month are three times the 85,000 that Moody’s Analytics says are needed to keep unemployment steady.
So, one of two things has to happen if job growth sustains its pace or even comes close: Unemployment will fall sharply, or the GOP will deprived of one of its derpiest arguments — that falling workforce participation since 2007 reflects lingering worker despair that doesn’t show up in consumer confidence stats, car sales or housing sales.


Second, lots of indicators that real people focus on are doing much better than the relatively abstract growth of gross domestic product. Economic models that predict this election are split between the approach of Yale’s Ray Fair, whose model predicts a Trump win because it bases its prediction largely on how many quarters see annualized growth of more than 3.2%, and a newer model from Moody’s that focuses on consumer-friendly metrics like gas prices, housing appreciation and real income growth.


Regular gas costs $2.12 a gallon nationwide, down from $4.06 in 2008. (Bernie Bros won’t admit it, but fracking did that). Worse for a GOP-will-fix-the-economy strategy is that gas prices will fall after Labor Day — they always do, an average of 16 cents a gallon in the last three Octobers, when additives designed to prevent summer air pollution are removed. Gas may not crack $2 everywhere, but it’ll be cheap.
Housing prices have risen about 5% in the last year, and more than a third since 2012, according to the Case-Shiller Index. And real disposable personal income has risen 2.4% in the last year, Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi noted in explaining the ADP numbers Wednesday.

So how unhappy will voters really be about the economy?

Putting the inputs together, Moody’s model says Clinton grabs 326 electoral votes, 56 more than needed to win. Moody’s model got every state right in 2012 and 2008, said Dan White, the economist who runs the model. Fair’s GDP-focused model predicted President Mitt Romney.

Now, let’s talk about the GDP number.

Yes, first-half growth was terrible — just 1% annualized, less than half last year’s pace — but it was terrible in ways that may not translate directly into voter unrest.


Consumer spending actually rose more than 4% in the second quarter — a pace not unlike the good-times late 1980s. The first-half problem was business confidence. Companies are shrinking inventories, and equipment investment dropped at a 3.5% annual pace in the second quarter.


Business’ lack of confidence isn’t about Clinton — it’s about Trump. Hewlett-Packard CEO Meg Whitman, the 2010 GOP candidate for California governor, said as much in endorsing Clinton this week.


Or you can believe Internet dude billionaire Mark Cuban, who asks, “Is there a bigger jagoff in the world than Donald Trump?” Or Warren Buffett, who says a monkey throwing darts at stock listings delivers better results. Or $40 billion man Mike Bloomberg, who reduced Bill Clinton to did-he-say-that gasping for breath with the bon mot, “Let’s elect a sane, competent person.”


Think those folks will be on the news in October blaming weak investment on Barack Obama rather than Fear of Trump?


Pinning hopes for a Trump resurgence on a third-quarter reprise of slow-to-no growth is also a lot like the mistake that Mitt Romney made in 2012: All year long, he made the argument that Obama couldn’t be re-elected because unemployment was still above 8%. The benefit of the argument was its simplicity: Its downfall was that the jobless rate hit 7.8% a month before the election, an outcome easy to see in January.
The lesson of Romney is, don’t base your political strategy on one number you don’t control. In the likely event that gas is cheap this fall, that real median incomes are basically at Web-bubble peaks and employment is near-full, and even GDP growth comes in about 3%-ish for the quarter (the Atlanta Fed’s influential GDPNow tracking estimate is now 3.7%), a Trump yell-about-the-economy plan will reduce Clinton’s strategists to — yes — howls of laughter.

(08-05-2016, 01:28 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: I just saw a credible poll in which Hillary Clinton takes a lead... in Georgia.

Aren't the Beatles great? It's beginning to feel like 1964 again!

Here's my projection of what the map will look like if Hillary Clinton is barely winning Georgia.

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump



I can't say who wins Utah after Donald Trump has bungled the usual Republican support -- a write-in campaign for Mitt Romney?

Texas goes D before any of the states of the arc of states (LA, AR, TN, KY, WV) that Bill Clinton won twice that Obama got clobbered in twice. If educated white suburbanites in Greater Atlanta are going to Clinton in Texas, they are doing so in Texas, too. But I can't assure anyone that Republicans will win in the High Plains states.