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2016 Polling Thread
#1
Here's a thread to post and discuss general election polls
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#2
Poll shows Clinton leading in Kansas; broad dissatisfaction with Legislature


Quote:Kansans are overwhelmingly dissatisfied with their state government and with their choice of presidential candidates, according to a new poll released Friday.
But when given a choice between the two parties’ presumptive nominees, a plurality (43-36 percent) said they prefer Democrat Hillary Clinton to Republican Donald Trump, while 21 percent are currently undecided.
If those trends hold through November, it would mark a historic shift in Kansas politics, where no Democratic presidential candidate has won Kansas since 1964, when Lyndon Johnson carried it over Barry Goldwater, 54-45 percent.
The poll by John Zogby Strategies was commissioned by the Kansas Health Foundation and was released Friday in conjunction with a symposium being conducted in Wichita. The random survey of 433 registered voters was conducted June 4-6 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percent.
Speaking in a telephone interview from Wichita, pollster John Zogby said the results were surprising for such a solidly Republican state as Kansas.




http://www2.ljworld.com/weblogs/capitol-...ansas-bro/
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#3
Poll shows Utah could be a wild card in presidential election

Quote:A poll shows presidential politics in red state Utah could be shaken up, which could also affect races down the ballot.

The poll, released this week by Gravis Marketing, puts Donald Trump just three points ahead of Hillary Clinton here in Utah at 29 to 26 percent. It also gives Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson 16 percent of the vote.

"Utah voters are very ambivalent," Tim Chambless with the University of Utah's Hinckley Institute of Politics said, reacting to the poll. "Very uncertain about who they're going to vote for -- if they're going to vote...


http://fox13now.com/2016/06/08/poll-show...-election/
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#4
Polls show that polls are unreliable because the results are determined by wording. Tongue
---Value Added Cool
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#5
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-...ald-trump/

Quote:No state voted more heavily for the GOP presidential nominee in 2012 than Utah. And in 2008, it was the third-most Republican state in the union.

A new poll shows that Donald Trump is tied with Hillary Clinton in Utah.

We're not quite saying, of course, that Utah is a tossup or that Trump is in real trouble in the ruby-red state — or even that it portends trouble for Trump in the 2016 presidential race, more broadly. There are plenty of factors at work here that are unique to Utah and the poll (which we will get to).



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-...ald-trump/
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#6
(06-13-2016, 09:22 PM)Dan Wrote: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-...ald-trump/

Quote:No state voted more heavily for the GOP presidential nominee in 2012 than Utah. And in 2008, it was the third-most Republican state in the union.

A new poll shows that Donald Trump is tied with Hillary Clinton in Utah.

We're not quite saying, of course, that Utah is a tossup or that Trump is in real trouble in the ruby-red state — or even that it portends trouble for Trump in the 2016 presidential race, more broadly. There are plenty of factors at work here that are unique to Utah and the poll (which we will get to).



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-...ald-trump/

Donald Trump is simply an awful nominee for Utah. Multiple marriages and heavy involvement in gambling casinos, both very non-Mormon deeds, could make him unusually vulnerable as a Republican in Utah.  But he could also be a truly awful candidate for many others. America has rejected off-the-wall nominees seen as extreme or capricious.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#7
(06-13-2016, 10:12 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:
(06-13-2016, 09:22 PM)Dan Wrote: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-...ald-trump/

Quote:No state voted more heavily for the GOP presidential nominee in 2012 than Utah. And in 2008, it was the third-most Republican state in the union.

A new poll shows that Donald Trump is tied with Hillary Clinton in Utah.

We're not quite saying, of course, that Utah is a tossup or that Trump is in real trouble in the ruby-red state — or even that it portends trouble for Trump in the 2016 presidential race, more broadly. There are plenty of factors at work here that are unique to Utah and the poll (which we will get to).



https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-...ald-trump/

Donald Trump is simply an awful nominee for Utah. Multiple marriages and heavy involvement in gambling casinos, both very non-Mormon deeds, could make him unusually vulnerable as a Republican in Utah.  But he could also be a truly awful candidate for many others. America has rejected off-the-wall nominees seen as extreme or capricious.

I don't think Utah is libertarian territory, so Johnson can't carry it. It will be up to the people of Utah to decide if supporting Trump conforms to their principles.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#8
As a two-way race:

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

More realistically, as a three-way race with an unusually-strong Third Party  candidacy:

Margin-based plan which I will use hereon for visual clarity. Partisan lead, then Johnson number. This should be easier to read. Colors based upon absolute totals for the leader. Absolute majorities: the color is all that I will show. Anyone with 50% or more of the raw vote wins anyway. Saturation suggests the raw total of the vote: 20% saturation for a lead with 20% to 29% of the vote, 30% for 30% to 39% of the vote, etc.


[Image: 6;4&WA=0;;5&WV=0;;6&WI=0;;5&WY=0;;6&ME=0...NE3=0;99;6]


White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5/6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump ®
Johnson (L)
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#9
Morning Consult national poll, conducted June 8-9:

https://morningconsult.com/2016/06/14/po...-historic/

Clinton 42%
Trump 37%

3-way matchup:

Clinton 39%
Trump 33%
Johnson 10%

,,,If Johnson gets 10% of the vote, then it is far easier for Hillary Clinton to reach 45% of the national vote from 39% and a win than Donald Trump can get to 45% from 33% and get a win. 6 against 12.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#10
(06-14-2016, 04:50 PM)X_4AD_84 Wrote: As it turns out there is probably nothing wrong with Kansas.

Some states might be described as "conservative but not crazy". Kansas may be one such state. Of course I would like to see another poll to corroborate or refute this finding.

I have yet to see any other poll of the Dakotas, Nebraska, or Kansas. Those states have only seventeen electoral votes between them, which is one more than Michigan and one fewer than Ohio. Only one electoral vote from among those states has gone for a Democratic nominee since 1964 -- that the one-time Obama win of Nebraska's Second Congressional District, the district that consists mostly of Greater Omaha not in Iowa.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#11
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articl...-june-2016

Clinton: 49%
Trump: 37%

Selzer may be the most reliable of all pollsters.

Polls between Clinton and Trump had razor-thin margins not long ago. That's over. Donald Trump has been shooting his mouth off in ways that look very bad.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#12
(06-14-2016, 05:35 PM)pbrower2a Wrote: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articl...-june-2016

Clinton: 49%
Trump: 37%

Selzer may be the most reliable of all pollsters.

Polls between Clinton and Trump had razor-thin margins not long ago. That's over. Donald Trump has been shooting his mouth off in ways that look very bad.

Gee I hope that's a trend. The "not long ago" was more like yesterday or the day before.

I know there's lots of crazies in this country. But I find it hard to imagine that most people will walk into a polling booth, and think: 

well now, I have a choice--- between a lady who has intimate knowledge of statecraft and legislation, a broad view of the country's needs, and a level-headed approach to policy proposals that would work, although she has questions of cutting corners when it comes to rules, and hiding things, and on the other hand....

a guy who has no experience in government, a reality TV star, a real estate speculator who has gone bankrupt a number of times, who is accused in court of fraud, who shoots off his mouth in ways sure to offend allies, who makes proposals that can't be enacted, but which appeal to prejudices to get votes....

And let's see, if I'm in a safe state, I have some other alternatives to consider too; Green, Libertarian.....

Oh well, I'll vote for Trump. He speaks well, and it will certainly make for good entertainment......
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#13
Interesting chart: Hillary Clinton has gained nothing, but Donald Trump has sunk catastrophically in favorability in three weeks.

[Image: Fav_Unfav_table-REV.jpg]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-un...d=39856303

Donald Trump just went underwater among "conservatives", a group with which he must be firmly ahead if he is to have a chance at being elected. Hillary Clinton breaks even with moderates, and has tepid support with liberals. Hillary Clinton has room with which to get improvement by recognizing the concerns of the supporters of Bernie Sanders. Donald Trump faces a more shattered Republican coalition. Republicans of course despise Hillary Clinton, so I can't see much of a "Republicans for Clinton" tendency. But I can see huge numbers of Republicans voting Libertarian if they do come out to vote.

For someone who has said little derogatory about blacks, Donald Trump does incredibly badly among them. Maybe they recognize that someone who says horrible stuff about Hispanics can swiftly turn against black people.

I'm beginning to think that many conservatives have begun to recognize that Donald Trump is a reckless demagogue, and that his antics are not "Presidential". His campaign was in trouble on May 20... and instead of making needed gains in support he lost much credibility in three weeks.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#14
(06-15-2016, 10:30 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: Interesting chart: Hillary Clinton has gained nothing, but Donald Trump has sunk catastrophically in favorability in three weeks.

[Image: Fav_Unfav_table-REV.jpg]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trumps-un...d=39856303

Donald Trump just went underwater among "conservatives", a group with which he must be firmly ahead if he is to have a chance at being elected. Hillary Clinton breaks even with moderates, and has tepid support with liberals. Hillary Clinton has room with which to get improvement by recognizing the concerns of the supporters of Bernie Sanders. Donald Trump faces a more shattered Republican coalition. Republicans of course despise Hillary Clinton, so I can't see much of a "Republicans for Clinton" tendency. But I can see huge numbers of Republicans voting Libertarian if they do come out to vote.

For someone who has said little derogatory about blacks, Donald Trump does incredibly badly among them. Maybe they recognize that someone who says horrible stuff about Hispanics can swiftly turn against black people.

I'm beginning to think that many conservatives have begun to recognize that Donald Trump is a reckless demagogue, and that his antics are not "Presidential". His campaign was in trouble on May 20... and instead of making needed gains in support he lost much credibility in three weeks.

There's also the recent Bloomberg poll that in addition showing a 12% spread to Clinton also showed that 55% of registered voters could not see themselves voting for Trump.  Then there's the polling on the three speeches in response to Orlando - Obama got a 44/34 favorable/unfavorable and the much-less seen Clinton speech was a 36/34.  Clinton's was okay but Trump's speech got a near unbelievable 25/51 split - so much for any bounce from Orlando

These numbers suggest Clinton can make in-roads into Right-leaning independents and perhaps even some significant numbers of GOP members particularly women. 

Clinton being able to reach out to her Right could give her some upper hand in dealing with Bernie and his supporters.  I want the Dems to swing further Left  but to do it in a way that will allow them to actually win elections and make things actually happen once elected.  It would not be good for the Dems to catch the magic unicorn bug that took over the Sanders campaign.

Most importantly, I do hope she pushes back on Bernie's hypocritical request on changing the nomination process.  It's just weird that he denigrates the super delegates which about 1/2-way through the primaries provided the ONLY way for him to be nominated - and since April, the only valid reason for him to stay in the race.  I don't mind jettisoning the super delegates but it should be done within an agreement to get rid of the most voter-suppression process in the election process - the caucus.

The excuse for caucus voting is that it is too expensive to hold primaries; some states won't pay for them and the Party has to come up with the money that they believe can be spent better otherwise.  I think this gets solved by proportionally reducing super delegates with state caucuses moving to primaries- the simplest being the super delegates stay but only in states deciding to still use the caucus, perhaps keeping some proportional level of national super-delegates - call it an an ongoing incentive for getting rid of all caucuses and moving to true elections.  Also any state wanting to hold a caucus rather than a primary should be moved to the back of the state voting calendar including Iowa - I'm certain Iowa would jettison the caucus and come up with the money to fund an actual primary in a matter of seconds.
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#15
I like your second idea on the calendar. But I'm not sure that giving superdelegates to caucus states and not primary states would produce the best superdelegates, or be an incentive to get rid of caucuses.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#16
If 55% of registered voters cannot vote for Donald Trump, then his maximum level of support is 45%. His maximum is at the level at which a Democratic opponent has a chance to get 400 or more electoral votes.

Donald Trump has made some incredibly off-the-wall statements. First, there's the one in which he blames Islam for the massacre at a gay bar. Faulting the President for failing to say "Radical Islam" is like faulting Christianity for the ugliness of Godh@tesf@gs (which so far has stayed clear of murder). Besides, it is entirely possible that America will need to align itself with some radical sect of Islam in a struggle against a more orthodox manifestation of Islam that goes bad. Remember: there was nothing radical about the very secular practice of Islam in Iraq under Saddam Hussein.

Then comes the incredible accusation that American soldiers stole money intended for the reconstruction of Iraq... (1) which happened under George W. Bush, so this is an inapt time for any Republican to make such an accusation, (2) Barack Obama would have never gotten away with as a statement even if it were true during the 2008 campaign, and (3) is an insult to American soldiers, many of whose military stints are over. Is there anyone who can't find himself under some verbal attack of this crackpot?

Maybe contractors were ripping America off badly -- but that is for the legal process to work upon.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#17
Two-way,which has more data:

Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more



Three-way, which I consider more realistic.

[Image: 9;4&WA=0;;5&WV=0;;6&WI=0;;5&WY=0;;6&ME=0...NE3=0;99;6]




White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump ®
Johnson (L)


Johnson strength map including the California poll - we can assume he's in the "2-3" category here:

Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;5]
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#18
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/n.../85947420/

Iowa -- Clinton up 44-41 on Trump. This is the first poll of Iowa, a swing state in a 50-50 election. Huge undecided, but no mention of Johnson.

Senator Grassley has a 48-41 lead over his likely challenger in the Senate race.
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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#19
Rasmussen, the most conservative poll, has Hillary up by 5 today.
"I close my eyes, and I can see a better day" -- Justin Bieber

Keep the spirit alive;
Eric M
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#20
Quinnipiac FLOP:

Florida: Clinton 47%, Trump 39%
Ohio: Clinton 40%, Trump 40%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 42%, Trump 41%

https://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinn...aseID=2359

("FLOP" refers to the states polled)


Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;6]


30% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 3% or less
40% -- lead with 40-49% but a margin of 4% or more
60% -- lead with 50-54%
70% -- lead with 55-59%
90% -- lead with 60% or more

Of course, this Presidential election no longer looks like a true binary choice.

Quinnipiac FLOP (FLorida-Ohio-Pennsylvania):

Florida: Clinton 42%, Trump 36%, Johnson 7%, Stein 3%
Ohio: Clinton 38%, Trump 36%, Johnson 8%, Stein 3%
Pennsylvania: Clinton 39%, Trump 36%, Johnson 9%, Stein 4%



[Image: ??;4&WV=0;;6&WI=0;;5&WY=0;;6&ME=0;;5&ME1...NE3=0;99;6]


White is for ties. Even leads in the thirties of 1% or more will be shown in the color of the winner.

...Kansas is not a misprint. Zogby has Hillary Clinton up 43-37 over Donald Trump in a binary poll. Recent elections and polls have shown some rifting in the Kansas GOP. The incumbent Republican Governor faces horrid results in approval polls. It may be a question of time before the moderate wing of the Kansas GOP takes over the Democratic Party.

Kansas could be a poor cultural match for Donald Trump. The people are well educated, which could make them unfriendly to demagogues.

Small states in area: CT: D5,6;4



Clinton (D)
Trump ®
Johnson (L)

Third-Party strength. 

Unless something changes, I'll use this plan

16%+: 80
13-15: 70
10-12: 60
7-9: 50
4-6: 40
2-3: 30
0-1: 20
Poll w/ no Libertarian number: clear

[Image: genusmap.php?year=2012&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;5]


Stein: CT 3, FL 3, NC 2, OH 3, PA 4
The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the dedicated Communist  but instead the people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction, true and false, no longer exists -- Hannah Arendt.


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