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2016 Polling Thread - Printable Version

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RE: 2016 Polling Thread - pbrower2a - 09-13-2016

I am sure that there will be a toxicology test.

RE: 2016 Polling Thread - pbrower2a - 09-13-2016

PPP's new Virginia poll finds that Hillary Clinton is still in a pretty good position in the state. In the full field she leads with 45% to 39% for Donald Trump, with Gary Johnson at 6%, Jill Stein at 2%, and Evan McMullin at 1%. In a head to head contest just against Trump, she leads 50/42.

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 2%
McMullin - 1%

Clinton - 50%
Trump - 42%

878 likely voters surveyed between September 9th and 11th.

...Clinton at an 8% lead and over 50% in a binary poll in Virginia?

Time for Donald Trump to start throwing some "Hail, Mammon" (excuse me, "Hail Mary!) passes.






Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump ®:



[Image: genusmap.php?year=2008&ev_c=1&pv_p=1&ev_...&NE3=0;1;7]

Tie -- white

60% or more -- saturation 8
55-59.9% -- saturation 6
50-54.9% -- saturation 5
45-49.9%, lead 8% or more -- saturation 4
45-49.9%, lead 4-7.9% -- saturation 3
45-49.9%, lead 1-3.9% -- saturation 2

Any lead with less than 45% will be considered unusable.




The three-way map:

Hillary Clinton (D) vs. Donald Trump ® vs. Gary Johnson (L):

[Image: 15;3&ME1=0;1;4&ME2=0;1;4&NE=2;;4&NE1=0;1...&NE3=0;1;7]


I'm going with saturation for the raw vote for the leader. The percentage (3 for 30-39, 4 for ro-49, 5 for 50-59, 6 for 60-69...) will be the number for the saturation.

No internal number will be shown for any nominee who has at least 60% of the raw vote or has a lead of at least 8%. and at least 40% of the raw vote. Otherwise I will show

the leader by color (white for a tie), the margin for the leader, and the amount for Johnson (maybe McMullen added should he become relevant).

RE: 2016 Polling Thread - Dan '82 - 09-14-2016

A Quinnipiac poll came out today the results from millennials were interesting 

in a two person race:

Clinton                        55%    

Trump                         34     
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      
DK/NA                          8      


In a Four person race:

Clinton              31%    
Trump               26    
Johnson            29    
Stein                 15     

Some thoughts
 1) There’s a very good chance that Trump will do better than Romney did among millennials.
 2) While this poll didn’t have a breakdown by age and race my guess is most of the Johnson supporters are while and in the 4 way race Clinton is getting almost no support from white millennials.
3) It seems like a lot of millennials who backed Sanders in the primaries are now supporting Johnson.

RE: 2016 Polling Thread - Bob Butler 54 - 09-15-2016

Just visited Five Thirty Eight which I generally respect, but they had a wild inaccuracy.  Their image of Trump has far too much hair.

[Image: trump.png]

How do you trust an organization that blatantly inaccurate?  Wink