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Presidential election, 2024 - pbrower2a - 06-13-2021
This is the first primary poll of the Republican nomination of 2024 of which I know. The most obvious explanation is that it comes from an exploratory committee for a John Bolton campaign for the Presidency. Bolton may be a militaristic piece of work, but he did turn against Trump. I know little about his stances on domestic policy.
New Hampshire may be a small state, but
(1) it is close to the national average in most years, and
(2) it has the early primary that can make or break a candidacy.
1. Crosstab: The drop in Trump’s base – his Strong Favorables – in New Hampshire.
Republican Voters
.Polls (date/year).............10/20 Poll 5/21 Poll +/
Strong Favorable 72 47 -25
Somewhat Favorable 16 34 +18
Unfavorable 12 16 +4
No Opinion - 2 +2
2. Comparison: The drop in Trump’s base – National poll to New Hampshire poll –
Republican voters Strongly/Very Favorable to Trump
Republican Voters
October March, May +/- % Drop
Nat’l Poll 77 58 -19 25%
New Hampshire Poll 72 47 -25 35%
(Comment: New Hampshire Republicans are more moderate than nationwide Republicans. Trump could lose the New Hampshire primary.)
3. Crosstab: How Trump’s Strong Favorables, Somewhat Favorables vote in the 2024 Primary
Republican Voters
Strong Favorable Somewhat Favorable Unfavorable
Vote Trump 80 37 3
Not Trump 20 63 97
Enough said.
11. 2020 General Election Ballot – How Undeclared (or Independents) Voted
All Voters
Undeclared Voters
Trump 39
Biden 51
Other 10
12. Crosstab: Trump, Biden, Favorable/Unfavorable with Undeclared Voters
Undeclared (Independent) Voters
Biden Trump +/-
Favorable 51 36 -15
Unfavorable 47 62 -15
13. Undeclared Voters – Unfavorable to Trump
Undeclared Voters
Undeclared Voters
Somewhat Unfavorable 6%
Strongly Unfavorable 56%
Total Unfavorable 62%
15. Crosstab: Trump Won the 2020 Election – All voters, Republican voters
All Voters Republican Voters
Agree 28 57
Disagree 58 19
Unsure 14 24
Comment: Yuck!
https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/summary.pdf