Presidential election, 2024

[pbrower2a]

This is the first primary poll of the Republican nomination of 2024 of which I know. The most obvious explanation is that it comes from an exploratory committee for a John Bolton campaign for the Presidency. Bolton may be a militaristic piece of work, but he did turn against Trump. I know little about his stances on domestic policy.

New Hampshire may be a small state, but 

(1) it is close to the national average in most years, and
(2) it has the early primary that can make or break a candidacy. 

1. Crosstab: The drop in Trump’s base – his Strong Favorables – in New Hampshire.

Republican Voters
.Polls (date/year).............10/20 Poll 5/21 Poll  +/
Strong Favorable               72            47            -25
Somewhat Favorable          16           34           +18
Unfavorable                      12            16            +4
No Opinion                      - 2                        +2

2. Comparison: The drop in Trump’s base – National poll to New Hampshire poll –
Republican voters Strongly/Very Favorable to Trump

Republican Voters

 October March, May +/- % Drop
Nat’l Poll 77 58 -19 25%
New Hampshire Poll 72 47 -25 35%

(Comment: New Hampshire Republicans are more moderate than nationwide Republicans. Trump could lose the New Hampshire primary.)



3. Crosstab: How Trump’s Strong Favorables, Somewhat Favorables vote in the 2024 Primary
Republican Voters
Strong Favorable Somewhat Favorable Unfavorable
Vote Trump 80 37 3
Not Trump 20 63 97

Enough said. 
11. 2020 General Election Ballot – How Undeclared (or Independents) Voted
 All Voters
Undeclared Voters
Trump 39
Biden 51
Other 10

12. Crosstab: Trump, Biden, Favorable/Unfavorable with Undeclared Voters
Undeclared (Independent) Voters
Biden Trump +/-
Favorable 51 36 -15
Unfavorable 47 62 -15

13. Undeclared Voters – Unfavorable to Trump
 Undeclared Voters
Undeclared Voters
Somewhat Unfavorable 6%
Strongly Unfavorable 56%
Total Unfavorable 62% 




15. Crosstab: Trump Won the 2020 Election – All voters, Republican voters
 All Voters Republican Voters
Agree 28 57
Disagree 58 19
Unsure 14 24 

Comment: Yuck!

https://boltonsuperpac.com/pdfs/summary.pdf