Generational Dynamics World View - Printable Version +- Generational Theory Forum: The Fourth Turning Forum: A message board discussing generations and the Strauss Howe generational theory (http://generational-theory.com/forum) +-- Forum: Fourth Turning Forums (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-1.html) +--- Forum: Theories Of History (http://generational-theory.com/forum/forum-7.html) +--- Thread: Generational Dynamics World View (/thread-51.html) Pages:
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RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-10-2017 (10-10-2017, 02:42 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > American and western european boomers have always been tone-deaf Your posting is nonsense for other reasons. Syria has given permission for US forces to be in Syria, as a result of a ceasefire agreement signed by the US, Russia, and Jordan, and approved by Syria's government ** 11-Jul-17 World View -- With ceasefire, American forces become more deeply involved in Syria's civil war ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e170711.htm#e170711 Even without that, the US has a perfect right to be in Syria. Bashar al-Assad has created ISIS, which puts much of the western world at risk, and Bashar al-Assad has driven millions of refugees into other countries, including over a million into Europe. In both cases, Bashar al-Assad is committing acts of war, and so US intervention is perfectly OK. Only a millennial who has no clue what's going on in the world would think otherwise. Similarly Burma has done the same thing as Bashar al-Assad: Weaponizing refugees, as a weapon to be used against other countries such as Bangladesh and India. When a country uses a weapon against you, then you have a perfect right to defend yourself. Only a millenial who has no clue what's going on in the world is so lazy that he thinks everyone should just sit back and let Burma and Syria attack us with impunity, until it's too late. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 10-10-2017 (10-10-2017, 03:54 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(10-10-2017, 02:42 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: > American and western european boomers have always been tone-deaf Uh, please explain this then . 1. So, it's obvious that the US was/is all for IS. That means that we have no business anywhere. #StopWarsOfChoice 2. In the blind squirrel finds a nut department we have winner! Cynic Hero is right. * Lucky Squirrel award for CH And well, it's true.... Dotards are like roaches. Find 1 and there's a scad more. #BoomDotard [Hillery connived to push Obama into war stuff] RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-10-2017 (10-10-2017, 05:41 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Uh, please explain this then . Are you kidding me? Russia has lied about everything -- invading Ukraine, invading Ukraine, annexing Crimea, al-Assad's chemical weapons, Aleppo, etc. And I've been attacked for years by paid Russian trolls who are completely full of crap, and whom I've been able to defeat every time just by quoting facts. And now you're saying that you believe Russia's defense ministry when they say that "the US is merely 'pretending' to fight ISIS," when ISIS has been the main target of American forces in both the Obama and Trump administrations, as I've been writing about for years? Are you really so disoriented by Trump Derangement Syndrome that you're willing to believe anything, no matter how moronic? Are you really sure that you want to start believing the crap that Russia puts out? Maybe you can get them to pay you. Try contacting Russian Trollmaster Central in St. Petersburg, Russia. ** 15-Aug-14 World View -- Russia's sophisticated disinformation campaign over Ukraine ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e140815.htm#e140815 ** 17-Mar-15 World View -- The talking points of the Russian and Chinese internet trolls</li> ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e150317.htm#e150317 ** 8-Oct-16 World View -- Reader comments and questions on Syria, Russia, and Russian trolls ** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e161008.htm#e161008 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 10-10-2017 (10-10-2017, 06:53 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(10-10-2017, 05:41 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Uh, please explain this then . Yeah, but I'll go ahead and toss Russia a "A blind squirrel finds a nut award as well". Lotsa incrimminating sources John. http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014/08/how-us-helped-isis-grow-monster-iraq-syria-assad/ The following is stupid because these wahoos don't know that the US homeland itself needs lots of TLC. https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2017-10/war-plan-orange-climate-change You have to recall the IS feed and seed job in Libya as well. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/19/us/politics/united-states-bombs-isis-camps-in-libya.html I bet if Qaddafi were still in power that wouldn't be a problem. So, bombs away and await some evil seeds to sprout someday. Btw, our latest quagmire in Afghanistan just turned 16. It's old enough for a driver's license now. Russia trolling? Not for that, but I'd love to get paid to troll SJW's. Besides it's too cold where they live. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11656043/My-life-as-a-pro-Putin-propagandist-in-Russias-secret-troll-factory.html Who to believe? Dunno, I'd say just follow the money to get the real answers myself. ... Anyhow, the US is pretty much fucked in the Mideast as I see it. Say these get rid of evil leader X. After Assad, then what? Maybe another set of Kurds to fuck up relations wrt Turkey? Does Saudi Arabia like Kurds? I know the rest of Iraq would have a fit with "Kurdistan". I like this: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/after-isis-falls-whats-next-for-the-us-in-the-middle-east/article/2637089 RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-10-2017 (10-10-2017, 07:52 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Who to believe? Dunno, I'd say just follow the money to get the I've answered these questions many, many times. After ISIS is defeated, all the groups fighting ISIS -- Turks, Turkmens, Sunni Iraqis, Shia Iraqis, Iraqi Kurds, Syrian Kurds, Syrian regime, Syrian Sunnis, Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah, Russians -- are going to have no one left but to fight each other. As you may know from my articles, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Does that answer your questions? RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 10-10-2017 (10-10-2017, 08:06 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(10-10-2017, 07:52 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Who to believe? Dunno, I'd say just follow the money to get the RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Cynic Hero '86 - 10-10-2017 John X, one thing that is sure NOT going to happen is everyone adopting western style democracy and every country in the world adopting western style international norms. There is no way to get a democratic world cooperation out of these conflicts, wars, nations and factions. 11-Oct-17 World View -- Tensions between Turks and Iraqi Kurds grow as another ISIS s - John J. Xenakis - 10-10-2017 *** 11-Oct-17 World View -- Tensions between Turks and Iraqi Kurds grow as another ISIS stronghold falls This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Hundreds of ISIS fighters surrender as Iraqi town of Hawija falls **** Iraqi forces flash victory sign after defeating ISIS in Hawija (AFP) In a dramatic turn, hundreds of fighters from the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) have surrendered en masse, following the recapture of the town of Hawija from ISIS occupation, suggesting that morale is collapsing among ISIS fighters. However, they didn't surrender to the invading Iraqi Shia government forces, presumably out of fear of retribution. Instead, they fled to the city of Kirkuk, which is held by Peshmerga (Kurdish militia), and surrendered to them. According to one Kurdish security official: <QUOTE>"Approximately 1,000 men surrendered over the last week. Not all, however, are terrorists. It's fair to say hundreds probably are [ISIS] members, but that will be clear after the debriefs."<END QUOTE> ISIS was effectively defeated in Iraq in July, when Iraqi forces captured Mosul, the group's de facto capital in Iraq, after a bloody nine-month battle. ISIS still holds some territory in western Iraq in a stretch of land along the border with Syria. Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi says that the rest of ISIS-held territory will be recaptured by the end of the year. Russian state media have been somewhat schizophrenic about the situation. On the one hand, they've congratulated the Iraq government for the victory in Hawija. On the other hand, because some ISIS fighters have fled across the border into Syria, they've gone off the deep end by claiming that the United States is only "pretending" to fight against ISIS in Iraq. Very funny. Reuters and Sputnik (Moscow) and Al Bawaba and Russia Today **** **** Tensions grow between Turkmens and Kurds in Kirkuk **** The fight against ISIS has unified many groups of forces -- the Iraqis, the Kurds, the Turks, the Russians, the Syrians, the Iranians, Hezbollah, and the Americans -- in a common goal of defeating ISIS. As ISIS continues to lose ground in both Iraq, all of these forces are increasingly turning their attention to fighting each other. As we reported a couple of days ago, Kirkuk is becoming a flash point in northeastern Iraq. Since 2014, it was the Kurdish Peshmerga militia forces that have fought ISIS and prevented a takeover of Kirkuk, and now the Kurds expect to retain control of Kirkuk, especially as a result of the overwhelming passage of the September 25 Kurdistan referendum on independence from Iraq. Turkmens are the third-largest ethnic group in Iraq, and claim to have been denied their rights since Saddam Hussein was overthrown in 2003. However, they've had their own internal problems because they've had their own sectarian split between Sunni and Shia Turkmens. However, the Turkmens in Kirkuk are united in that they do not want to be part of an independent Kurdistan. Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds have been cooperating as long as the fight against ISIS in Mosul was progressing. But now, Turkey's government is opposed to an independent Kurdistan, and is particularly opposed to Kirkuk being part of Kurdistan. Devlet Bahçeli, the head of Turkey's Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), says that contested regions of Iraq, such as Kirkuk and Mosul, are "the lands of Turkmens." There is a big Kurdish community in Turkey, including members of the terrorist group Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has been conducting terrorist acts in Turkey for decades. Turkey fears that any sort of Kurdish independence in Iraq will energize the PKK in Turkey. Bahçeli says: <QUOTE>"The safety of Kirkuk is the safety of Ankara. If the land of Turkmens is put into the fire, Turkey will not be safe. The independence bid is an attempt to resurrect the Sévres [Treaty] and to fracture neighboring countries “A rehearsal for Kurdistan will affect the future of the Republic of Turkey. It is a question of survival, a matter of sociological fragmentation."<END QUOTE> Bahçeli referred to the 1920 Treaty of Sévres, which divided up Ottoman territory after World War I. Al Monitor and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Hurriyet (Ankara) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Hawija, Kirkuk, Kurdistan, Peshmerga, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh Mosul, Haider al-Abadi, Turkmens, Kurds, turkey, Devlet Bahçeli, Nationalist Movement Party, MHP, Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, Treaty of Sévres Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-11-2017 (10-10-2017, 08:39 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Except one. If Russia is going to be our ally, then why all the Russia will be our ally for the same reason that Stalin was our ally - they're less worse than the alternative. In my opinion, fake news and trolls do no good at all except produce political chaos. Russia's trolls and fake news claim that Russia didn't invade Crimea, and yet there are still American and European sanctions on Russia for invading Crimea. Russia claims they didn't shoot down the airliner, but everyone believes they did. Russia claims that al-Assad didn't use Sarin gas, but everyone believes they did. In my opinion, Russia's fake news and trolls not only did them no good, they caused enormous harm, because Russian officials and media have almost no credibility any more. I believe that Vladimir Putin is repeating the same disastrous historical mistake that Stalin made. Stalin was completely humiliated and made a complete fool of by Hitler with the Molotov-Ribintroff agreement, which was possibly the greatest diplomatic disaster in Russia's history. Putin should be embracing Europe and the West, but instead is sucking up to China, which is going to turn on Russia just as Hitler did. RE: Generational Dynamics World View - John J. Xenakis - 10-11-2017 (10-10-2017, 09:38 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > John X, one thing that is sure NOT going to happen is everyone You'll get no disagreement from me. You're talking about the disastrous neo-con philosophy of "democracy through invasion," which is based on a vastly naive and ridiculous misinterpretation of history. 12-Oct-17 World View -- Palestinian reconciliation talks ignore Hamas commitment to d - John J. Xenakis - 10-11-2017 *** 12-Oct-17 World View -- Palestinian reconciliation talks ignore Hamas commitment to destroy Israel This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Palestinian reconciliation talks ignore Hamas commitment to destroy Israel **** Israeli soldier on the Gaza border (Jerusalem Post) The two major governing factions for the Palestinian territories -- Hamas, which governs the Gaza Strip, and Fatah, which governs the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank -- are meeting in Cairo, the capital city of Egypt, in order to try to find a way to form a unity government. The meeting comes at the invitation of Egypt's president Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi. In 2005, Israel withdrew all Jewish settlements from the Gaza Strip, in order to promote peace with the Palestinians, and as a step in the so-called "peace process" between Israel and the Palestinians. The intention was that Fatah would govern both Gaza and the West Bank, and negotiations for permanent peace with Israel would proceed. However, in 2006 the rival faction Hamas scored a landslide victory in parliamentary elections in the Gaza Strip, completely shutting out Fatah. Fatah tried to regain control of Gaza through military means in 2007, but was quickly defeated by Hamas. in a stunning surprise victory that shocked the entire Mideast. Since then, there have been numerous attempts at a "unity government" between Fatah and Hamas, and all have failed spectacularly. And so, at the invitation of Egypt, why not give it another shot? It's easy to believe that the Palestinians are homogeneous, all with the same world view and behaviors. That may have been true decades ago, but it's certainly not true today. The Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank have been physically separated from one another for several generations, and the two regions have grown into two completely distinct cultures. There are even important demographic differences, according to the CIA World Fact Book: The average age in the West Bank is 20.8, and in Gaza it's 16.9. The average population growth rates are 2.3% and 1.8%, respectively. By way of contrast, the average age in the United States is 37.9, and the growth rate is 0.8%. So if the average age in Gaza is 16.9, then Gaza is essentially a society of teenage children. Furthermore, the unemployment rate in Gaza is 43%, one of the highest in the world. So now tell this society of children with little education and no hope of a job that they're going to be governed by the 82-year-old PA president Mahmoud Abbas, and from that fact alone you can see what a fantasy the entire Palestinian unity and reconciliation process is. Nonetheless, the Palestinian press says that the meeting in Cairo has a "positive atmosphere," and the talks were held “out of a sense of national responsibility and in response to the aspirations of the Palestinian people looking for an end to the division, achieve national unity and strengthen the steadfastness of our people.” Egypt's president Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi said that the talks were a prelude to peace: <QUOTE>"Ongoing Egyptian moves to help our Palestinian brothers start a new stage of unity in the Palestinian ranks is preparation for a just peace between Palestinian and Israeli sides, and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state to meet legitimate aspirations of the Palestinian people for a secure, stable and prosperous life."<END QUOTE> However, the two Palestinian factions decided to not even discuss the question of peace with Israel, but to appoint a new commission to study the matter. The first detailed Generational Dynamics analysis that I wrote was in May 2003, after President George Bush offered his "Mideast Roadmap to Peace," which was to bring peace to the Mideast. The analysis, "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?", said that a Mideast peace was impossible, because the Jews and the Arabs would be re-fighting the 1948 war that following the partitioning of Palestine by the United Nations, and the creation of the state of Israel. I wrote that a new war was being prevented by Ariel Sharon and Yasser Arafat, traumatized survivors of the 1948 war who would do anything to keep it from happening again. I wrote that when these two men died, and younger people were in charge, it was likely that war would begin again. At the death of Yasser Arafat in November, 2004, the amount of international rejoicing was enormous. Everyone in the West believed that it was Arafat who had prevented the Israeli-Palestinian peace process from going forward. Actually, as I explained repeatedly, it was not Arafat preventing peace. It was the younger generations of Palestinians who were preventing peace. If Arafat had any role at all, it was to hold back the tide of a major new war. Arafat was replaced by Mahmoud Abbas in January 2005, another survivor of the 1948 war. It's my belief that Abbas continued to prevent a major war with Israel, following the path of Arafat. It's worth noting that since then there has not been a war between Israel and the West Bank, although Israel has had two wars with Gaza, and one war with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Palestinian News Network (Pnn) and Times of Israel and Palestinian News Agency (Wafa) **** **** Palestinian unity talks face disagreement on Hamas's 'resistance weapons' **** According to Israel's Major General Yoav Mordechai, Hamas terrorists in Gaza are using lasers to blind Israeli soldiers on the other side of the border. In a statement he said: <QUOTE>"The leadership of Hamas leadership is not able to control its operatives, and will thus lead to an Israeli response against Hamas activists. This situation is dangerous because the continued provocative attempts to blind soldiers carried out by the terrorist operatives, even if not guided by their commanders, is likely to lead to escalation at this sensitive time of developments in the Palestinian arena; therefore, be warned. The continuation of this phenomenon will lead to an IDF response."<END QUOTE> This perfectly illustrates why there will be a major war between Palestinians and Jews long before there's any peace. Even if Hamas leadership and Hamas commanders wanted peace, the Gaza population, consisting mostly of children with an average age of 16.9, do not. This kind of thing is at the heart of any Generational Dynamics analysis. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the Palestinian unity talks as a threat to the existence of Israel: <QUOTE>"We expect anyone talking about a peace process to recognize Israel and, of course, recognize a Jewish state, and we won’t accept faux reconciliations in which the Palestinian side reconciles at the expense of our existence. We have a very straightforward attitude toward anyone who wants to effect such a reconciliation: Recognize the State of Israel, dismantle Hamas’s military wing, sever the relationship with Iran, which calls for our destruction.<END QUOTE> Hamas's military wing, Izzadin Kassam, may be a deal breaker in the Palestinian unity talks. Mahmoud Abbas has said that he would not accept a scenario in which Hamas’s armed wing, Izzadin Kassam, kept control of its weapons. On the other hand, a spokesman for Hamas said: <QUOTE>"The resistance's weapons are legal. They are here to protect Palestinians and free their lands [from Israeli occupation]."<END QUOTE> So apparently Hamas's spokesman agrees with Netanyahu -- that the unity talks present a risk to the existence of Israel. AFP and Israel National News and Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel and Tasnim News (Iran) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, West Bank, Gaza, Palestinian Authority, Hamas, Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Egypt, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, Ariel Sharon, Yasser Arafat, Yoav Mordechai, Izzadin Kassam Generational Dynamics, West Bank, Gaza, Palestinian Authority, Hamas, Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, Egypt, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, Ariel Sharon, Yasser Arafat, Yoav Mordechai, Izzadin Kassam Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 13-Oct-17 World View -- Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib - John J. Xenakis - 10-12-2017 *** 13-Oct-17 World View -- Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Iraqi troops and tanks seen massing near Kirkuk, poised to attack Kurds **** A group of masked Hash Al-Shaabi forces (Iraqi Shia Muslim Popular Mobilization Units) seen near Kirkuk late Thursday (Kurdistan 24) Iraqi forces along with Iranian-trained paramilitaries have been seen on Friday morning massing near Kurdish-occupied Kirkuk in northeastern Iraq. Iraq has rejected Kurdistan's independence referendum, and oil-rich Kirkuk has become a flash point. It's not known whether the massing of Iraqi forces is simply a show of force, or is the prelude to a full-scale attack on Kirkuk. Kurdistan 24 Related: Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum (03-Oct-2017) **** **** Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas announce unity agreement **** Egypt announced on Thursday that the Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas had reached a reconciliation agreement, as an outcome of the Egypt-sponsored reconciliation talks being held in Cairo. Thousands of Palestinians took to the streets across Gaza on Thursday in celebration of the agreement, with loudspeakers on open cars blasting national songs, youths dancing and hugging and many waving Palestine and Egyptian flags. As expected, the agreement did not even attempt to address the two major issues splitting Fatah and Hamas:
As we pointed out yesterday, the average of Gaza's population is 16.9, and so the Izzadin Kassam brigades is undoubtedly heavily populated with teenagers who wouldn't be inclined to take orders from 82 year old Mahmoud Abbas anyway. Nonetheless, this agreement was greeted with loud cheers from Gaza civilians, because it promises respite from heavy sanctions that have been imposed on Gaza by both Egypt and Fatah. Egypt rarely opens the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt, and so it's impossible for Palestinians to leave Gaza or for supplies to be brought in. The agreement calls for the Rafah crossing to be controlled by the Fatah-Hamas unity government. The other sanctions had been imposed by Fatah in the form of cutting the salaries of employees in Gaza, and cutting the electricity supply to Gaza. The unity government will restore the salaries and electricity. The agreement supposedly transfers administrative control of Gaza to Abbas's Palestinian Authority (PA) as of December 1, subject to further negotiations in November. The agreement also stipulates that legislative, presidential and national council elections should be conducted within one year of its signing. It's worth remembering that the open rift between Hamas and Fatah began in 2006 when Hamas resoundingly defeated Fatah in legislative elections. If there's a presidential election, then it's very likely that Mahmoud Abbas will be replaced by someone much younger and much less willing to compromise, and much more willing to fight a war with Israel. Al Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters and BBC Related: Palestinian reconciliation talks ignore Hamas commitment to destroy Israel (12-Oct-2017) **** **** Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib in apparent truce with HTS **** The first convoy of Turkey's military forces crossed into Syria's Idlib province late on Thursday. This is the first deployment following Saturday's announcement by Turkey of a major military operation in Idlib province. The purpose of the operation is to establish a "de-escalation zone," as agreed in July by Turkey, Russia and Iran, meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan. The primary objective of the de-escalation zone operation is to bring peace to Idlib, by protecting Sunni Muslims from Bashar al-Assad's forces and by keeping the different anti-Assad rebel groups from fighting each other. I had been expected that the Turkish forces would evict al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from Idlib in order to reach this objective. HTS was not part of the de-escalation deal and opposed it. But HTS militias in the last few days have been seen escorting Turkish reconnaissance teams into Idlib, suggesting that Turkey and HTS have reached a peace agreement, or at least a ceasefire agreement, for the time being. So for the time being, Turkey's incursion into Idlib has these objectives:
According to reports, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the head of HTS, is deeply distrusted by moderate rebel groups (Failaq al-Sham, Nour al-Din al-Zinki brigades, and Ahrar al-Sham), who are eager to initiate a conflict with HTS. Warplanes from Russia and al-Assad have been stepping up airstrikes on Syrian civilians, including women and children, striking hospital and schools. Civilians in Idlib, many of whom fled Aleppo, are reluctantly accepting the need for Turkish forces. According to one resident, "Turkey intervening may be the best solution to Syria's situation because Russia and Assad will stop at nothing to destroy the whole of Syria." Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters and Syria Deeply and Middle East Eye Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Kurdistan, Kirkuk, Egypt, Palestine, Gaza, West Bank, Fatah, Hamas, Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority, Izzadin Kassam brigades, Israel, Turkey, Syria, Idlib, Russia, Iran, Astana, Kazakhstan, Bashar al-Assad, Aleppo, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS, Failaq al-Sham, Nour al-Din al-Zinki brigades, Ahrar al-Sham Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 14-Oct-17 World View -- Thousands of Haitians living in Miami scheduled for deportati - John J. Xenakis - 10-13-2017 *** 14-Oct-17 World View -- Thousands of Haitians living in Miami scheduled for deportation in January This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** The last UN peacekeepers leave Haiti after 14 years **** People dump trash and raw sewage into canals that run through Port-au-Prince, Haiti. When it rains, the canals overflow and flood poor neighborhoods. (NPR) Haiti often appears to be a cursed nation. One of the poorest nations in the world, it has suffered one calamity after another. The United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) was established in 2004 after armed conflicts that had spread across the country. Then, on January 12, 2010, the earthquake struck, killing 316,000 people and leaving more than 1.5 million people homeless, and 3.3 million facing food shortages. More UN peacekeepers were sent in the aftermath, including some of Nepal that infected the water with cholera. Haiti had previously been free of cholera, but now cholera is endemic. There have been numerous attempts to help the Haitian people, including a Haiti Fund sponsored by former presidents Bill Clinton and George W Bush. The fund received some $54 million in donations, which was donated to small businesses in the form of grants and loans, with an emphasis on fish farming, architecture and nursing. All the money was spent in about 18 months. According to the fund spokesman, by the time the fund had closed down, it had directly created or sustained 7,350 jobs and affected more than 311,000 people in Haiti. Now that the peacekeeping mission is being closed down after nearly 15 years, the descriptions of its accomplishments are only lukewarm. Sandra Honoré, the head of the peacekeeping force, says that Haiti has made significant progress since U.N. forces arrived in 2004 amid massive street protests and a bloody rebellion that toppled democratically elected President Jean-Bertrand Aristide: <QUOTE>"The Haitian people enjoy a considerable degree of security and greater stability. Political violence has diminished considerably. Armed gangs no longer hold the population hostage. All three branches of power are in place with the executive and legislative branches restored to full functioning. However, [immediate improvements] have yet to be felt by the vast majority of the population, particularly in poor urban areas."<END QUOTE> So with that relatively unenthusiastic endorsement, the stabilization effort is ending on Sunday, when the last peacekeepers will be withdrawn. The final report on the effort, delivered to the UN Security Council, listed several achievements, but warned of some potential problems, eight months after Jovenel Moïse took office as president. One issue is that elections to establish councils and assemblies at the municipal levels have been stalled. As regular readers are aware, this is a story that I've seen over and over, in country after country in a generational Awakening era, following a civil war. A political leader, usually on the winning side of the war, takes power and refuses to give it up, often using brutal tactics, including torture, jailings and rapes to suppress the opposition. This kind of brutal tactic hasn't occurred in Haiti, but Haiti has a history of such tactics, and the peacekeepers haven't left yet. It remains to be seen whether and when these elections will be held. A second issue is that Moïse is building an army of 3,000 soldiers, to fill the security vacuum left by the departing peacekeepers, and he is taking direct control of the recruitment. Haiti has a history of the prime minister or president of using the army as a weapon against the opposition, in order to remain in power. There's already a Haitian National Police which now has about 15,000 trained members, which was set up by the departing peacekeepers. But apparently Moïse would rather build his own army, with his own people in charge and under his complete control. Miami Herald and United Nations and Public Radio International and ReliefWeb and BBC (11-Jul) **** **** Thousands of Haitians living in Miami scheduled for deportation in January **** Some 24,000 Haitians arrived in the United States following the January 2010 Haiti earthquake, and they were given "Temporary Protected Status" (TPS) by the Obama administration, allowing them to stay in the country and work, and send remittances back to their families in Haiti. The TPS for Haiti was meant to last only 18 months, but it kept getting 18-month extensions under the Obama administration. When the last TPS extension expired in May, the DHS announced a final six-month extension. In a statement from DHS: <QUOTE>"The Department of Homeland Security urges Haitian TPS recipients who do not have another immigration status to use the time before Jan. 22, 2018, to prepare for and arrange their departure from the United States."<END QUOTE> According to immigration rights activist Marleine Bastien: <QUOTE>"Thousands of Haitian TPS recipients have been living in the U.S. for an average of seven to 25 years. To deport them and force them to leave behind their U.S.-born children will be a catastrophe of great magnitude."<END QUOTE> Bastien says that if Haitians are deported back to Haiti, they'll be facing famine and poverty. Many will go underground to avoid being deported. Bastien is demanding that the TPS benefit be extended not just for another 18 months, but forever, or until a way is found to get Haitians off TPS, and grant them legal residency. Miami New Times and Miami Herald Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Haiti, Bill Clinton, George W Bush, United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti, MINUSTAH, Sandra Honoré, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, Jovenel Moïse, Temporary Protected Status, TPS, Marleine Bastien Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe RE: Generational Dynamics World View - Ragnarök_62 - 10-13-2017 (10-11-2017, 05:37 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:(10-10-2017, 08:39 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Except one. If Russia is going to be our ally, then why all the Speaking of Russia, I think we ourselves can learn lessons from them ourselves. 15-Oct-17 World View -- Armies and militias fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria increasin - John J. Xenakis - 10-14-2017 *** 15-Oct-17 World View -- Armies and militias fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria increasingly turn on each other This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Mattis and Tillerson work to prevent Iraq vs Kurd military confrontation in Kirkuk **** Defaced Kurdistan flags at a former Peshmerga position now held by Iraqi forces on Friday (AFP) The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) says that Iraqi army troops and fighters from the Shia Popular Mobilization Unit (PMU, Hashd al-Shaabi) militias are massed on the border of the city of Kirkuk, which has been controlled by the Kurdish Peshmerga militias since 2014, when they evicted the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) from the city. There have already been some conflicts between Iraqi troops and Peshmerga in villages south of Kirkuk in the last few days. The KRG ran an independence referendum on September 25, and the vote among the Kurds for independence was above 90%. This referendum was internationally condemned before, during and after the vote took place because it created unrealistic expectations. Now that the referendum has been successful, the Kurds want to be rewarded for all they did in defeating ISIS. They want independence and, in particular, they want to keep Kirkuk. They say they want it for its symbolic value, but it's more likely that they want it because it's sitting on a huge amount of oil. This oil is a big part of Kurdistan's economy. It's currently going through a pipeline through Turkey to the Black Sea, but Turkey, which doesn't want an independent Kurdistan, is threatening to close the pipeline. With Iraqi army and Shia militia troops massed on the Kirkuk border, KRG says that Iraq's government has set a deadline of early Sunday morning for the Peshmerga to withdraw from positions being held in Kirkuk. As of this writing on Saturday evening ET, that deadline has passed. The United States is keeping close watch on the situation by means of overflights. Both Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis have been urging both sides to keep focused on fighting ISIS, not each other. Mattis said on Friday: <QUOTE>"We have to work on this. The Secretary of State has the lead, but my forces are integrated among these forces, and they are working, too, to make certain we keep any potential for conflict off the table. ... We are trying to tone everything down and to figure out how we go forward without losing sight of the enemy, and at the same time recognizing that we have got to find a way to move forward. Everybody stay focused on defeating ISIS. We can’t turn on each other right now. We don’t want to go to a shooting situation."<END QUOTE> As everyone has been saying for months, all the various armies and militias fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria would have nothing better to do than start fighting each other, once ISIS was defeated. In Iraq, ISIS has been evicted from Mosul and other major cities. The Kurds, the Iraqi army and the Shia militias achieved a great victory, and now they're going to celebrate by killing each other. AFP and Kurdistan 24 and Bloomberg and Rudaw (Kurdistan) **** **** ISIS fighters permitted to leave Raqqa, Syria, with human shields **** The eviction of ISIS from Raqqa, their former stronghold in Syria, is almost complete. The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), consisting mostly of Syrian Kurdish fighters, are permitting dozens of buses to evacuate the remaining ISIS fighters and their families, along with about 400 civilians to be used as human shields. The SDF, backed by US warplanes, have been fighting ISIS in Raqqa. According to the SDF, the buses will take the surrendered fighters further east to Deir az-Zour province, much of which remains under ISIS control. The evacuation deal was pursued by the United States military as a way to allow the SDF to secure the last parts of the city, without requiring bloody house to house fighting that would kill hundreds of civilians. According to a US-led coalition statement: <QUOTE>"The arrangement is designed to minimize civilian casualties and purportedly excludes foreign Daesh [ISIS] terrorists as people trapped in the city continue to flee the impending fall of Daesh's so-called capital. People departing Raqqa under the arrangement are subject to search and screening by Syrian Democratic Forces."<END QUOTE> With ISIS defeated in both Iraq and Syria, the analyst Sami Hamdi, editor of International Interest, gave a concise analysis of what can be expected next, in an interview on Al-Jazeera (my transcription): <QUOTE>"In Iraq you have the Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) that terrify the Sunni population, who were marginalized in the first place, and whose villages constituted the haven in which ISIS operates. In Syria you still have a dictatorial regime hell bent on crushing its people's democratic desires. You have the Kurdish who are pursuing independence. You have the Russians who are terrified of an American-leaning state. You have the Iranians who wish to establish hegemony in the region. So we don't really see any reintegration. On the contrary, we see humanitarian crises in cities such as Mosul. We will see a humanitarian crisis in cities such as Raqqa. There is nothing to suggest that there will be a reintegration of these communities into mainstream society. And this leads to one outcome -- a division within the region, new borders, a modern Kurdistan, and other areas seeking their own independent autonomous states. When we talk about the defeat of ISIS we should be wary. ISIS on the ground will be defeated. Losing Raqqa will be a big blow to them. But ISIS in the political discourse will continue. Because as long as there is an ISIS in the mainstream media and political discourse, Iran can justify keeping the Revolutionary Guards in Syria. As long as there is an ISIS in Syria, Turkey can justify military force to restrict Kurdish movement. As long as there is an ISIS, Russia can continue to keep its troops in Syria, on the pretext of fighting terrorism. As long as there is an ISIS, the Popular Mobilization Units can claim legitimacy to stay as an ultra-violent military force outside of military control. So ISIS will be defeated militarily, it might resort to guerrilla tactics, but politically in the discourse, it's not quite time for the international powers to shelve the topic of ISIS and pursue other interests."<END QUOTE> In neighboring Deir az-Zour province, the army of the Syrian regime captured the ISIS stronghold of Mayadeen. Telegraph (London) and CNN **** **** Syria demands 'immediately' pullout of Turkey's forces from Idlib province **** As we've been reporting in the last few days, Turkey has deployed tanks and troops into Syria's Idlib province, with the objective of bringing peace to the Idlib "de-escalation zone." Turkey's incursion is part of an agreement reached with Iran and Russia in Astana, Kazakhstan, in July. However, now Syria's Foreign Ministry is demanding that Turkey withdraw its forces, something that almost certainly result in renewed fighting in Idlib, particularly between the al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other anti-Assad Sunni rebel militias, many of whom are opposed to the presence of HTS. According to the Syrian statement: <QUOTE>"Syria condemns in the strongest terms the incursion of units of the Turkish army in Idlib province, which constitutes a flagrant aggression against the sovereignty and security of Syrian territory. The Turkish aggression is not tied in any way with the understandings that were reached between the guarantor states in the Astana process, but constitutes a violation of these understandings."<END QUOTE> The Syrian government has in the past expressed opposition to the entire "de-escalation zone" agreement, but the agreement was forced on Syria's president Bashar al-Assad by Russia's government. Al-Assad has announced that he expects to regain control of all of Syria, and few people doubt that if given the opportunity, he would like to bomb all of Idlib province into oblivion, killing hundreds of thousands of innocent civilians, including women and children, as he did last year in Aleppo. The Astana agreement is supposed to bring about a ceasefire throughout Syria, and bring peace. However, as the saying goes, "Peace is that brief, glorious moment in history when everybody stands around reloading." As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US, India, Russia and Iran. Anadolu (Ankara) and Deutsche Welle and Russia Today Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Government, KRG, Popular Mobilization Unit, PMU, Kirkuk, Mosul, Peshmerga, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh Rex Tillerson, Jim Mattis, Sami Hamdi, Mayadeen, Syria, Raqqa, Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF, Deir Ezzor, Deir al-Zour, Deir ez-Zor, Deir Azzour, Bashar al-Assad, Turkey, Idlib, Astana, Kazakhstan, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 16-Oct-17 World View -- Bitcoin super-bubble surges through $5,000 and blasts even hi - John J. Xenakis - 10-15-2017 *** 16-Oct-17 World View -- Bitcoin super-bubble surges through $5,000 and blasts even higher This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Bitcoin super-bubble surges through $5,000 and blasts even higher **** Price of Bitcoin 7/18/2010 to 10/15/2017 (Coindesk.com) The price of the international currency Bitcoin surged past $5,000 on Thursday, and reached $5,809 on Sunday, before falling back to $5,712.97. It started the year at a measly $966, and has risen meteorically all year, if you don't count the fact that it fell to $3226.41 on Sept 14 from $4950.72 on Sept 1. I've been asked by several people recently about my recommendations for investing in Bitcoin. Investing in Bitcoin is the road to disaster. I literally cannot think of a worse investment today than Bitcoin, or the various copycat newcomers, such as Ethereum. Bitcoin is almost literally a Ponzi scheme backed by nothing but air. Let's take a look at some other investments. Suppose you want to buy an apartment building as an investment. You start by estimating the income -- how much money you'll be paid in rents. Then you estimate all the expenses -- mortgage payments, repairs, real estate taxes, and so forth. All of these income and expense amounts are spread out over time, usually over decades, so you have to perform "present value" computations for future income and payments. (If you're interested in the mathematical details, see my 2008 article, "A primer on financial engineering and structured finance") So when you're finished, you get a number that represents the value of the apartment building for investment purpose. If the value is, say, $625,000, then you know that you should spend no more than $625,000 for the apartment building, because that's all it's worth. Another investment is stock shares. A stock share is backed by the company that issues the shares, and the company's earnings are published in annual reports. The higher the earnings, the more the stock share is worth. This is usually measured by the "price/earnings ratio," which is the price of a share divided by the annual earnings per share. Historically, investors expect to earn about 7% return on investment in stock shares, which means that the P/E ratio should be around 1/.07, or about 14. Today, the average P/E ratio is 25, so stocks are way overpriced and in a bubble, as I'll discuss below. Another investment is tulips. I'm referring here to the historic "Tulipomania bubble" that occurred in Holland in the 1600s, when the price of a single Tulip bulb rose to be higher than the price of a house. The bubble burst in 1637, causing a financial disaster across Europe. In the fall of 1636, you could purchase a certificate guaranteeing to you a tulip bulb of a certain type and weight the following spring, and you could pay for it with a personal credit note. Edward Chancellor's 1999 book, Devil Take the Hindmost, a history of financial speculation tells what happened: <QUOTE>"By the later stages of the mania, the fusion of the [i]windhandel with paper credit created a perfect symmetry of insubstantiality: most transactions were for tulip bulbs that could never be delivered because they didn't exist and were paid for with credit notes that could never be honored because the money wasn't there."<END QUOTE>[/i] In other words, at the height of the bubble, there was this "perfect symmetry of insubstantiality": A person would buy a certificate representing a tulip, and give in return an IOU. The buyer could at least hope that the certificate represented an actual tulip, just as the purchaser of an apartment building knows that there is an actual apartment building somewhere. But with Bitcoin there's nothing. If you spend money on a Bitcoin, and you don't get rid of it right away, then you have nothing that backs it up in any way. Before proceeding, let me put on my Senior Software Engineer hat. The "blockchain" technology is what the Bitcoin is based on. This is a solid technology, and it's a major advance in programming data structures that goes far beyond currency in leveraging the power of the internet. The problem with internet transactions in general is that if you do something online then you have no way of proving what you did. If you buy a coat online then you may be able to prove through your bank (a third party) that you paid for it, but you can't prove that you bought a coat unless the merchant confirms that you did. That's fine in most cases, but blockchain technology allows you to make any sort of online transaction and prove that it occurred, without having to depend on a third party. This applies to such things as financial transactions, smart contracts, and even voting. So, whatever the value of Bitcoin is, the underlying technology is solid. So now let me take my Senior Software Engineer hat off, and again put on my Prophet of Doom hat. There's a concept in Bitcoin technology called a "hard fork." Technically, it simply means that the blockchain software is being updated to a new version where transactions might have a different representation. Ideally, everyone simply uses the new transaction format. But since the Bitcoin community is mostly a collection of airheads, it's possible to continue using both the old and new transaction formats, so that now there are two currencies where there used to be only one, and so there's the opportunity to create two bubbles instead of just one. Bitcoin had a fork in August, and here's how a news story on Coindesk.com describes it: <QUOTE>"Yet it seems, investors believe the momentum is warranted given the results of the last hard fork in August, which split the network in two, but did so in a way that fairly safely created a new asset called bitcoin cash. Distributed to all bitcoin owners at the time of the fork, investors were suddenly given an equal amount of valuable cryptocurrency (bitcoin cash has held relatively steady around $300 per coin, but has traded for as much as $1,000). Far from a risky proposition, investors see that extra value as just created out of thin air and delivered to existing investors for free."<END QUOTE> Anyone who reads these two paragraphs would have to laugh and think it's a joke. But not for these airheads. These investors think of a hard fork as "extra value as just created out of thin air and delivered to existing investors for free." So the term "hard fork," which is really an obscure technical term for a software update, has taken on a magical, bewitching aura as something that makes free money out of thin air. And there's a new Bitcoin hard fork coming up soon, and these investors are looking forward to it, because they're going to get more free money. By the way, Bitcoin competitor Ethereum is implementing a hard fork starting yesterday (Sunday), and investors are torn between hoping for a free money bonanza, and a total disaster. One more point: The fact that bitcoin uses the internet is both its strength and its weakness. The internet is ubiquitous, making Bitcoin a globally universal currency. But in a regional or global crisis, or a war crisis, the internet is likely to be unavailable, making Bitcoin worthless. Guardian (London) and Coindesk.com and CNBC **** **** Stock market continues its huge bubble **** S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at 24.55 on October 13, indicating a huge stock market bubble (WSJ) Bitcoin isn't the only investment that's in a huge bubble that could implode at any time. There are $8 trillion globally in in corporate and government bonds with negative yields, which means that you invest $1,000, but only get $990 when you sell the bonds. In other words, you don't earn money by investing -- you pay money to invest. But people do it anyway, because they perceive these bonds to be safe havens in which to store their money, and they're willing to pay a price for that safety. But low or negative interest rates on bonds means that the prices of the bonds are astronomically high, so bonds are also in a huge bubble. If the Fed and other central banks start raising interest rates, which they say they're going to do, then the values of these bonds could come crashing down. Watching CNBC this week, I learned that stock traders are unhappy because stock market volatility (measured by the VIX) has been extremely low. Traders love the chaos of high volatility, with stock prices jumping up and down, because they're good at making timed trades and making money from them. But with the markets so quiet and placid, traders are unable to make money. Therefore, traders are hoping for a geopolitical crisis, like a North Korea nuclear crisis or a major Mideast war, to increase volatility so that they can make money. Many people are crediting the large stock market rise of 19% as a "Trump rally," but taking credit for a stock market rally is extremely dangerous, since then you get the blame when the stock market falls. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations index) on Friday morning (October 13) was at an astronomically high 24.55. This is far above the historical average of 14, indicating that the stock market bubble is still growing, and could burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower. There's actually been a lot of debate and discussion recently on whether a stock market crash is coming, much more discussion than I've heard in the past. One person comes on and talks about price/earnings ratios or other stock price measures to show that stocks are way overpriced. Then a kid comes on, who seems barely old enough to remember the financial crisis of 2008, and says that the American economy is resilient, and there are no signs of an impending crash, and no reason for one to occur at this time. So I like to point out that no one has any idea why a stock market panic occurred on the particular day October 28, 1928, and why it didn't occur six months earlier or six months later. Even today, economists and analysts cannot give a reason why that was the day. Everyone understands that it had to occur because price/earnings ratios were astronomically high (as they are today). But whether it will occur tomorrow, next week, next month or next year is impossible to predict and, as in 1929, we may not even know why it happened. AP and Business Insider and Bloomberg Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bitcoin, Ponzi scheme, Ethereum, Holland, Tulipomania, blockchain, hard fork, VIX Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 17-Oct-17 World View -- Devastating defeat to Iraq in Kirkuk exposes major splits bet - John J. Xenakis - 10-16-2017 *** 17-Oct-17 World View -- Devastating defeat to Iraq in Kirkuk exposes major splits between Kurdish factions This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Kurds flee Kirkuk after Iraq army defeats them in complete rout **** Children greet Iraqi soldiers as they enter the southern outskirts of Kirkuk on Monday (Reuters) People in Erbil, the capital city of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), were shocked on Monday at the speed with which their supposedly legendary Peshmerga militias defending Kirkuk collapsed at the approach of Iraqi army forces and Shia militias, in what is seen as a total rout. For several days, Kurdish forces were locked in an armed standoff Iraqi government troops and allied Iranian-backed paramilitaries known as Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) on the outskirts of the city. Kurdish leaders were using the strongest rhetoric, saying that Kirkuk would be defended to the last Peshmerga, and that if Iraqi forces attack, they would be soundly defeated. So there's a lot of anger today among the Kurds about how this rout could have occurred so quickly, within about 15 hours. The Kurds took control of Kirkuk in 2014, at a time when the country Iraq seemed to be falling apart, because the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) defeated the Iraqi army quickly and took control of Mosul, making it ISIS headquarters in Iraq. ISIS also took control of vast swaths of land, including many villages, but it was Kurdish Peshmerga militias that prevented ISIS from taking control of Kirkuk as well. The Kurds might have been able to retain Kirkuk as part of the regional KRG government, but Kurdish leaders decided to go further and hold a non-binding referendum on September 25 on the question of secession of an independent Kurdish state from Iraq. This referendum went ahead despite almost universal international opposition, as the United States, Turkey, Iran, and Iraq expressed concern that the referendum would create unrealistic expectations and destabilize the region. And that appears to be exactly what happened. Once the referendum had passed, Iraq's prime minister Haider al-Abadi said that he had no choice but to order military action to capture Kirkuk and prevent a secession from taking place. The rapid advance of the Iraqi forces resulted in quickly seizing control of the city's airport, in addition to an oil field, the strategic K1 military base and the Taza Khormatu district southeast of Kirkuk. A convoy of elite Iraqi counter-terrorism unit forces took control of the governorate building in central Kirkuk in the afternoon, meeting no resistance. Iraqi forces also took control of the governor's office, which had been left deserted. Al-Abadi said in a statement: <QUOTE>"It is my constitutional duty to work for the benefit of the citizens, and to protect our national unity that came under threat of fragmentation as a result of the referendum that was organized by the Kurdish region. The referendum came at a time where the country is fighting against terrorism that has come in the form of ISIS. We tried to urge (the Kurds) not to violate the constitution and to focus on fighting ISIS, but they did not listen ... They chose their personal interests over Iraq's interests."<END QUOTE> By evening, there was an Iraqi victory parade in Kirkuk. With the approach of the Iraqi forces, thousands of civilians fled Kirkuk, and headed for Sulymaniyeh and Erbil in the Kurdish region. However, other civilians were seen cheering on the Iraqi forces as they entered Kirkuk's southern outskirts. That's because Kirkuk is a multi-ethnic city, with a population of a million people, roughly 30% Kurdish, 30% Arab, 30% Turkmen, and 10% Christian. Al Jazeera and Middle East Eye and Iraqi News **** **** Devastating defeat to Iraq in Kirkuk exposes major splits between Kurdish factions **** In an article that I wrote two weeks ago, I compared three different independence movements that are currently in the news -- -- in Catalonia from Spain, in the Anglophone Southern Cameroons from Francophone Cameroon, and in Kurdistan from Iraq. As I described, the Kurdistan case is substantially different from the other two. In the other two, there is a resurgence of the extremely vitriolic xenophobic attitudes that gave rise to previous generational crisis wars, and civilians were targeted by government forces. But we saw nothing like that between the Kurds and the Iraqis in the case of the Kurdistan separatist movement in Iraq. Monday's events modify that assessment. There was a military clash between Iraqi and Kurdish forces, but it was quick and fizzled quickly. There were no reported atrocities, rapes or mass slaughters that are typical of clashes when vitriolic xenophobia is in play. In particular, Monday's military clashes did not target civilians. Instead, what emerged is a major split among the Kurds themselves. There are two major factions in Kurdistan, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), that were formed in the decades following WW II. During Iraq's last generational crisis war, the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, the KDP was often aligned with Iran, and the KDP and the PUK fought each other. The two parties have had several brief military clashes since then. As political parties, the PUK and KDP are about evenly split in the population. With Monday's overwhelming defeat in Kirkuk, we are hearing vitriolic rhetoric in the form of the PUK and KDP accusing each other of "betrayal," and calling each other "traitors." On Monday, Masoud Barzani, president of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and KDP leader, posted a tweet accusing the PUK of collaborating with Iran and with Iraq's Shia militias to defeat the Kurds in Kirkuk. It seems pretty likely that the hostility between the KDP and PUK is going to grow following Monday's humiliating defeat in Kirkuk. Al Jazeera and BBC Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Government, KRG, Kirkuk, Sulymaniyeh, Peshmerga, Popular Mobilization Units, PMU, Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh, Turkey, Iran, Masoud Barzani, Haider al-Abadi, Kurdistan Democratic Party, KDP, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, PUK Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 18-Oct-17 World View -- North Korea crisis: Would the United States sacrifice Los Ang - John J. Xenakis - 10-17-2017 *** 18-Oct-17 World View -- North Korea crisis: Would the United States sacrifice Los Angeles for Seoul? This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** North Korea nuclear missile crisis close to reaching a tipping point **** Gruesome North Korean propaganda painting claiming to depict American war crimes during Korean War (News Dog Media) On Sunday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that "diplomatic efforts will continue until the first bomb drops." When I first heard I immediately thought that he was being intentionally ambiguous, because he could easily have made it clearer whether he meant the first North Korean bomb or the first American bomb. Tillerson was responding to a question about whether President Trump's tweets undermine him: <QUOTE>"Well, I think what the President is doing is he is trying to motivate action on a number of people's part in particular the regime in North Korea. I think he does want to be clear with Kim Jong-un and that regime in North Korea that he has military preparations ready to go and has those military options on the table and we have spent substantial time actually perfecting those. But be clear, the President has also made clear to me that he wants this solved diplomatically. He is not seeking to go to war. [Question: So he does think it is a waste of time?] No, sir. He made it clear to me to continue my diplomatic efforts which we are. And we will - as I told others the diplomatic efforts will continue until the first bomb drops."<END QUOTE> When we try to interpret what Tillerson and Trump mean by this we have to understand that the United States has run out of time. As Nikki Haley said last month, "We have kicked the can down the road long enough. There is no more road left." This means that one US administration after another have allowed North Korea to carry out their threats to develop a ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead. Most analysts believe that North Korea will "soon" have the ability to target the United States mainland with a nuclear weapon equipped ballistic missile, where "soon" could mean several weeks to several months. Indeed, North Korean officials have repeatedly said that they are working non-stop to develop this nuclear missile capability, neither diplomacy nor sanction nor anything else will stop them. At that point, the North Koreans are expected to do something spectacular, like launch a nuclear missile to land in the Pacific Ocean halfway to the US mainland. This will be a clear tipping point in the North Korean crisis. The North Koreans believe, possibly correctly, that once this point is reached, then they will be able to use nuclear threats to make demands of the US, South Korea, and Japan, such as demanding that all US troops be withdrawn. The North Koreans would then continue development, and would soon have an arsenal of ballistic missiles with nuclear missiles targeting the US mainland. This will also presumably make the Russians and the Chinese very happy as well. Would the North Koreans actually carry out their nuclear threats? I keep going back to 2010, when the North conducted two acts of war targeting South Korea -- in May, North Korea torpedoed and sank the warship Cheonan, killing dozens of South Korean crew members, and in November, North Korea killed South Korean civilians by shelling Yeonpyeong Island. In both cases, the South Koreans chose not to respond, but it's pretty clear that they might have. The North Koreans carried out those two acts of war because they correctly concluded that the South Koreans would not retaliate. Since the beginning of his term, President Trump has repeatedly made clear, through tweets and statements, that unlike the South Koreans in 2010, we actually would retaliate, and forcefully. But after three decades of empty threats by American administrations, the North Koreans may quite reasonably conclude that Trump's tweets are simply another empty threat. And so we return to Tillerson's remark, and to the question: Why was it so carefully and meticulously ambiguous as to whether "the first bomb" would be dropped by the US or North Korea? Will Trump and Tillerson permit North Korea get to the point where they have an arsenal of nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles pointed at the United States? These are two older men, Boomers, decisive, sharp businessmen who now have to make the most important and critical decisions of their lives. I certainly can't read their minds, but I find it hard to believe that they would just sit back and let North Korea develop a nuclear arsenal with impunity, and then have to lead a humiliated United States a year from now. CNN and AFP and Sputnik News (Moscow) and KCNA Watch (North Korea) **** **** North Korea crisis: Would the United States sacrifice Los Angeles for Seoul? **** As tensions over the North Korea crisis rise almost on a daily basis, the above is the kind of question that a lot East Asians are asking themselves. Will the United States allow North Korea to develop a nuclear ballistic missile arsenal that would put Los Angeles at risk? Or will the US strike North Korea's nuclear capabilities and save Los Angeles, but risk a retaliatory North Korean attack on Seoul - or Tokyo? After World War II, the United States took on the role of Policeman of the World, and in doing so, signed some sort of mutual defense treaty with many countries: Japan, South Korea, Israel, Taiwan, the Philippines, the Marshall Islands, the ANZUS agreement with Australia and New Zealand, a special treaty with Iceland, and the NATO agreement with all of Europe. The purpose was to discourage attacks on any of these allies that would otherwise have the risk of spiraling into World War III. What we're seeing now is a kind of fatal flaw in the strategy behind these mutual defense treaties. The idea was that the United States would protect these countries, but today the United States is more concerned about protecting itself. And because of the mutual defense treaties, neither South Korea nor Japan has a nuclear capability or nuclear deterrent, even though both countries are threatened with nuclear attack from North Korea (not to mention China), and even though they now feel unsure that they can depend on the United States to protect them. Development of a nuclear capability Japan is deeply unpopular because of their experience in World War II. But according to Thomas Cynkin, a former U.S. diplomat in Japan, the Japanese have developed a "nuclear latency policy," which allows Japan to develop nuclear weapons very quickly. Cynkin says the country is estimated to have “9 tons of plutonium, enough for over 1,000 warheads,” as well as an advanced space industry, which provides easy access to ballistic missile technology. There is no such easy path to nuclear weapons development in South Korea. Nuclear development is openly debated in South Korea, but would infuriate the Chinese and draw retaliation. The Chinese were infuriated by South Korea's deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile system, which is purely defensive, and China retaliated with a harsh economic boycott that's still in place. Deployment of offensive nuclear weapons would dangerously provoke the Chinese. North Korea's last major test was a ballistic missile test that occurred on September 14. The missile flew over Japan, landing in the Pacific Ocean far enough to have put the American base on Guam within range, raising international anxiety. It's been a whole month since that test, so international anxieties have subsided. But all it would take is another North Korean test of a nuclear bomb, or a long-range ballistic missile, or the two combined, and international anxieties will rise higher than ever, along with a new debate over deploying nuclear weapons in Japan and South Korea. The Diplomat and Washington Post and Cipher Brief and National Interest (5-Sep) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Japan, South Korea, Rex Tillerson, China, Thomas Cynkin, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 19-Oct-17 World View -- Italy's deals with Libya's warlords substantially reduce flow - John J. Xenakis - 10-18-2017 *** 19-Oct-17 World View -- Italy's deals with Libya's warlords substantially reduce flow of refugees This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Italy's deals with Libya's warlords substantially reduce flow of refugees **** Migrants from Libya's port of Sabratha are transported to detention centers by Italy's deal with warlords (Reuters) A record 180,000 refugees crossed the Mediterranean from Libya to Italy in 2016, and Italian officials had been expect that number to increase in 2017. Instead, the number has fallen substantially, thanks to a series of deals that Italy's government made with Libya's tribes, warlords, and coast guard, even though the deals have been widely condemned by humanitarian and human rights organizations. The number of crossings in July 2017 was half what it was in July 2016, and in August, 20 per cent of what it was a year earlier. Crossings were down from nearly 28,000 people in June to below 10,000 in August. The reduction in the flow of refugees is attributed to a series of deals that Italy has made with various tribes and government officials in Libya during June to cut off the migrant flow. Many of the deals were with tribes along Libya's southern border, to prevent refugees coming from West Africa from entering Libya from Chad, Mali and Niger. The initiator of the agreement was Italy's interior minister Marco Minniti. According to Minniti: <QUOTE>"But my conviction was the southern border of Libya is crucial for the southern border of Europe as a whole. So we have built a relationship with the tribes of southern Sahara. They are fundamental to the south, the guardians of the southern border, but they had been fighting one another and that meant the southern border was not controlled. On 31 March the tribes came to my office here in Rome. It was a very difficult discussion; 72 hours were needed to to try to find a solution and to build a peace that respected their independence. All this was very complicated, more complicated than you can imagine, but they were looking for a solution. My conviction is that at a certain point [when] these conflicts become unsustainable the important thing is to be ready when someone is looking for a solution."<END QUOTE> That wasn't all. Minniti also made deals with the mayors of 14 cities in Libya: <QUOTE>"We discussed a pact. It was quite simple: engage yourself against the trafficking of human beings and we will help you to build an alternative economy. The problems at the moment is trafficking has been the only industry in Libya capable of producing an income revenue."<END QUOTE> What was the alternative economy? The tribal militias in these cities had only one major source of income -- to become human traffickers and collect money from refugees to put them on boats, push the boats out into the Mediterranean, and hope that they'll be rescued by NGOs. In many cases, Italy has accused NGOs of being in telephone contact with these human trafficking militias, and paying off the militias to let them know when refugee boats were pushed out into the sea. So Minniti offered to provide aid to these mayors to replace the funds received from human trafficking. According to Minniti: <QUOTE>"When I met a sultan of the tribes he said: ‘You have to help me so that my children so that can lead a different life from trafficking.’ We have taken these projects to the European commission. These people want to change and it is the duty of the international community to help in this reconversion."<END QUOTE> In return for the aid, the militias are responsible for detaining the migrants and keeping them in refugee camps. In August, Rome also signed deals with the Libyan coastguard to help it deal with people smuggling, and to permit Italy to perform naval operations in Libyan waters. These deals are considered to be morally questionable, but their effect has been dramatic, in cutting the refugee flow to Italy and the number of drownings in the Mediterranean Sea substantially. Italy's prime minister Paolo Gentiloni bragged about the results on Wednesday: <QUOTE>"Italy is proud to be a good example on the issue of migrants. We have reduced the number of people dying at sea and the number of irregular-migrant arrivals."<END QUOTE> Gentiloni said that Italy was a model for Europe on how to reduce migrant arrivals. Reuters and Irish Times and Guardian (London) **** **** Italy accused of turning a blind eye to atrocities received by refugees in detention centers **** The deals that Italy's government has signed with Libya's warlords, tribes, militias and coast guard have dramatically reduced the flow of refugees, but Italy is being accused of turning a blind eye to the abuse that refugees receive in "concentration camps," where they have been left hungry, brutalized, raped and tortured. U.N. agencies have said that Italy's policies had trapped tens of thousands of people in dire conditions in Libya. This is particularly true in Libya's port of Sabratha, which Libyan human smugglers have long used as an operations base and a main port for their boats heading across the Mediterranean Sea. Last week, 4,000 migrants were found, trapped in various locations around the city, often starving. Commissioner Nils Muiznieks of the Council of Europe Human Rights wrote to Italy's interior minister Marco Minniti, all but accusing Italy of violating human rights laws: <QUOTE>"The case law of the European Court of Human Rights is clear about this duty and I think it bears relevance for Italy’s operations in Libyan territorial waters. In light of recent reports on the current human rights situation of migrants in Libya, handing individuals over to the Libyan authorities or other groups in Libya would expose them to a real risk of torture or inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment, ... [violating] Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights. Finally, the Commissioner requests information about the measures to ensure that search and rescue operations in the Mediterranean, including those conducted by non-governmental actors, can continue to be carried out effectively and in safety."<END QUOTE> Muiznieks added, "The fact that such actions would be carried out in Libyan territorial waters does not absolve Italy from its obligations under the convention." In fact, based on news reports, the evidence is that Minniti has taken no steps at all to prevent refugees from being exposed to atrocities. According to the deals, the Libyan warlords and militias detain the refugees, do not allow them to proceed to Europe, but instead lock them up in detention centers where any form of abuse can be performed on them with impunity. Deutsche Welle and Council of Europe-Commission of Human Rights and Deutsche Welle and BBC Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Italy, Libya, Sabratha, Mediterranean Sea, Chad, Mali, Niger, Marco Minniti, Paolo Gentiloni, Nils Muiznieks, Council of Europe Human Rights Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe 20-Oct-17 World View -- Economists baffled on 30th anniversary of 1987 stock market p - John J. Xenakis - 10-19-2017 *** 20-Oct-17 World View -- Economists baffled on 30th anniversary of 1987 stock market panic This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com
**** **** Mainstream economists baffled about stock market panic of October 19, 1987 **** The Philadelphia Inquirer on October 20, 1987, after Black Monday They're calling Monday, October 19, 1987, the "worst day in stock market history," it fell 22% in one day (equivalent to a fall of 5000 points today). Analysts and economists were on television all day on Thursday telling sad stories about how shocked they were on that day, but they were completely baffled about why it happened. The development of generational theory and Generational Dynamics has revealed numerous important historical patterns generated by the regular changes in generations. One of the most significant discoveries in the development of generational theory is an explanation of the stock market crash of Monday, October 19, 1987 -- why it occurred at all, why it occurred in 1987 rather than, say, in 1980 or 1990, and why the stock market recovered so quickly. Here are some Thursday media excerpts offering explanations:
Jeff Cox of CNBC claims that, unlike today, "the 1987 [stock market] was stratospheric, doubling in about two years." This is the kind of nonsense you see from analysts who have no clue what's going on. In 1987, the S&P 500 price/earnings ratio index was 14, which means that stocks were fairly priced at the historic average. Today, the P/E ratio is 25, indicating that stocks are in a huge bubble. If you want to figure out why the "the worst day in stock market history" occurred in 1987, then you have to ask what was unique about 1987 that made it different from 1980, 1985, 1990 or 1995? If you look at the proposed explanations listed above, they explain nothing. Let's take one example: global tensions, and fear of a Mideast war. Well, just a few years earlier we had had the Iran hostage crisis in 1979, and the deaths of 300 American and French troops in the 1983 bombing of the Beirut, Lebanon, barracks by Hezbollah. If global tensions caused the panic in 1987, why didn't they cause a panic in those earlier years? None of the other proposals explains why 1987 was a special year, as opposed to all the others. But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what made 1987 a special year, different from all the others, was that it was 58 years after the crash of 1929. This leads us to one of the most interesting discoveries of generational theory -- the "58 Year Hypothesis." CNN and San Diego Union Tribune and CNBC and Market Watch Related Articles
**** **** The 58 Year Hypothesis: False panics of 1914 and 1987 **** So why did all the senior managers of financial firms panic on October 19, 1987, and join the stock market selloff that caused the market to fall 22% in one day? If we assume that all of these senior managers were roughly 63-68 years old in 1987, they would have been 5-10 years old in 1929. Now imagine that you're a 5-10 year old child in 1929, leading a happy life with parents who have plenty of money because they had taken advantage of the stock market bubble in the 1920s. Now imagine that, one day, your parents lose everything. Your whole life is turned upside down, and suddenly your family is living under a bridge and depending on soup kitchens to survive. This is something that traumatizes you and affects your entire life. And here's the important part: It's not just you. It's every child your age. As you and your age cohort grow older, you share this common memory of the 1929 catastrophe -- something that younger children and younger people have no personal memory of. So now move forward to 1987, and you're 63-68 years old, and something happens in the stock market that frightens you. It could be almost anything. You talk it over with your other 63-68 year old exec friends, and you realize that you all recognize the danger, but that managers younger than you have no idea, because they didn't live through it before. So you all tell younger people that you think there's going to be a repeat of the 1929 crash, causing a panic. But it's a false panic, because stocks are fairly priced, not in a huge bubble as in 1929. This isn't the first time this has happened. In 1914, there was a similar false panic, occurring 57 years after the stock market crash of 1857. And, once again, the market recovered quickly from the panic, because stocks were fairly priced. The 1914 panic had an enormous impact on investors because it ended so quickly, and kept investors from understanding the impact of the 1929 stock market crash. John Kenneth Galbraith's 1954 book The Great Crash - 1929, explained how the brief 1907 and 1914 panics contributed to the 1929 disaster: <QUOTE>"A common feature of all these earlier troubles [previous panics] was that having happened they were over. The worst was reasonably recognizable as such. The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to insure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune. The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin call presently got another and equally urgent one, and if he met that there would still be another. In the end all the money he had was extracted from him and lost. The man with the smart money, who was safely out of the market when the first crash came, naturally went back in to pick up bargains. ... The bargains then suffered a ruinous fall. Even the man who waited out all of October and all of November, who saw the volume of trading return to normal and saw Wall Street become as placid as a produce market, and who then bought common stocks would see their value drop to a third or fourth of the purchase price in the next twenty-four months. ... The ruthlessness of [the stock market was] remarkable." (p. 108-109)<END QUOTE> This analysis by Galbraith is the basis for what I call the Principle of Maximum Ruin: That a real financial crisis will ruin the maximum number of people to the maximum extent possible. The commonly heard phrase "buy the dip" describes what happens. Since investors don't believe that a real stock market crash is possible, they buy more stocks whenever prices dip. So they keep losing money until they lose everything. This is what happened in 1929, and it's what will happen in the coming panic and financial crisis. **** **** Examples of the 58 Year Hypothesis: Swine Flu, Iraq War, Israel-Hezbollah war **** I formulated the 58 Year Hypothesis over ten years ago when I accidentally noticed what seemed to be a remarkable coincidence. I'm now referring to the "swine flu" panic of 1976. The public became hysterical over the possibility of a new flu pandemic that could kill millions of people, repeating the catastrophe of the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918. Responding to public demands, the government prepared millions of doses of swine flu vaccine. President Gerald R. Ford authorized a mass inoculation program, and 45 million Americans -- more than 20 percent of the population -- were vaccinated. The whole thing was a fiasco because there was no epidemic, and because hundreds of people died from a negative reaction to the vaccinations. The swine flu panic of 1976 was a false panic that occurred exactly 58 years after the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918. Once again, the 58 Year Hypothesis explains why the year 1976 was unique. There was no similar flu panic in 1960, 1965, or 1970. It occurred in 1976 because it was 58 years after the Spanish Flu epidemic, and 5-10 year old children who had lost their parents and friends in 1918 panicked in 1976, when they were 63-68 years old, fearing that it would happen again. Once I identified this "coincidence," I began looking for other possible examples, and it turns out that the 58 year time span occurs rather frequently in generational theory. It seems that when an entire society is traumatized by an unexpected event that was foreseeable but not foreseen, then there is a panic 58 years later that the event will happen again. The Iraq ground war of 2003 is considered a mistake today, but in 2003 it was extremely populated because the entire country was anxious over Saddam Hussein's development and use of chemical weapons. It occurred 58 years after the use of nuclear weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. Why was the year 2003 unique? Saddam had been developing and using WMD's for 20 years, and there was no panic. But 2003 was unique because it was 58 years after 1945. In 2006, Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers near the Lebanon border. Israel went into a state of total panic, and launched the war in Lebanon within four hours, with no plan and no objectives. The war was a total disaster for Israel. There had been other prior confrontations with Hezbollah and Palestinian terrorists prior to 2006. What made 2006 special? It occurred 58 years after the genocidal war between Jews and Arabs in Palestine in 1948. There's still plenty of research to be done on the 58 Year Hypothesis to determine exactly why it happens, what types of events trigger it, and what are other examples. But returning now to the false panic of 1987, go back and read the moronic explanations by mainstream economists and analysts, and you'll see that the 58 Year Hypothesis is the only one that actually makes sense. Jerusalem Post (30-Apr-2007) and LA Times (27-Apr-2009) Related Articles
KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Panic of 1987, Dan Rostenkowski, Tim Metz, Jeff Cox, 58 Year Hypothesis, John Kenneth Galbraith, Gerald Ford, Swine flu, Spanish Flu, Israel Hezbollah war, Iraq war Permanent web link to this article Receive daily World View columns by e-mail Contribute to Generational Dynamics via PayPal John J. Xenakis 100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A Cambridge, MA 02142 Phone: 617-864-0010 E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe |