Generational Dynamics World View

[John J. Xenakis]

(10-10-2017, 02:42 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > American and western european boomers have always been tone-deaf
> to such matters. Look at boomers sticking there noses in other
> people's business toward the Syrian and Burmese governments
> handling of insurrection in those countries. Even though boomers
> have at no point been granted permission to intervene by either
> government.

Your posting is nonsense for other reasons.

Syria has given permission for US forces to be in Syria, as a result
of a ceasefire agreement signed by the US, Russia, and Jordan, and
approved by Syria's government


** 11-Jul-17 World View -- With ceasefire, American forces become more deeply involved in Syria's civil war
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e170711


Even without that, the US has a perfect right to be in Syria.
Bashar al-Assad has created ISIS, which puts much of the western
world at risk, and Bashar al-Assad has driven millions of refugees
into other countries, including over a million into Europe. In both
cases, Bashar al-Assad is committing acts of war, and so US
intervention is perfectly OK. Only a millennial who has no clue
what's going on in the world would think otherwise.

Similarly Burma has done the same thing as Bashar al-Assad:
Weaponizing refugees, as a weapon to be used against other countries
such as Bangladesh and India. When a country uses a weapon against
you, then you have a perfect right to defend yourself. Only a
millenial who has no clue what's going on in the world is so lazy that
he thinks everyone should just sit back and let Burma and Syria attack
us with impunity, until it's too late.

[Ragnarök_62]

(10-10-2017, 03:54 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(10-10-2017, 02:42 PM)Cynic Hero Wrote: >   American and western european boomers have always been tone-deaf
>   to such matters. Look at boomers sticking there noses in other
>   people's business toward the Syrian and Burmese governments
>   handling of insurrection in those countries. Even though boomers
>   have at no point been granted permission to intervene by either
>   government.

Your posting is nonsense for other reasons.

Syria has given permission for US forces to be in Syria, as a result
of a ceasefire agreement signed by the US, Russia, and Jordan, and
approved by Syria's government


** 11-Jul-17 World View -- With ceasefire, American forces become more deeply involved in Syria's civil war
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e170711


Even without that, the US has a perfect right to be in Syria.
Bashar al-Assad has created ISIS, which puts much of the western
world at risk, and Bashar al-Assad has driven millions of refugees
into other countries, including over a million into Europe.  In both
cases, Bashar al-Assad is committing acts of war, and so US
intervention is perfectly OK.  Only a millennial who has no clue
what's going on in the world would think otherwise.

Similarly Burma has done the same thing as Bashar al-Assad:
Weaponizing refugees, as a weapon to be used against other countries
such as Bangladesh and India.  When a country uses a weapon against
you, then you have a perfect right to defend yourself.  Only a
millenial who has no clue what's going on in the world is so lazy that
he thinks everyone should just sit back and let Burma and Syria attack
us with impunity, until it's too late.

Uh, please explain this then .

1. So, it's obvious that the US was/is all for IS. That means that we have no business anywhere.
#StopWarsOfChoice

2. In the blind squirrel finds a nut department we have winner!  Cynic Hero is right.


* Lucky Squirrel award for CH


And well, it's true.... Dotards are like roaches.  Find 1 and there's a scad more.

#BoomDotard      [Hillery connived to push Obama into war stuff]

[John J. Xenakis]

(10-10-2017, 05:41 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Uh, please explain this then .

> 1. So, it's obvious that the US was/is all for IS. That means that
> we have no business anywhere. #StopWarsOfChoice

> 2. In the blind squirrel finds a nut department we have winner!
> Cynic Hero is right.

* Lucky Squirrel award for CH

>

> And well, it's true.... Dotards are like roaches. Find 1 and
> there's a scad more.

> #BoomDotard [Hillery connived to push Obama into war stuff]
>

Are you kidding me? Russia has lied about everything -- invading
Ukraine, invading Ukraine, annexing Crimea, al-Assad's chemical
weapons, Aleppo, etc. And I've been attacked for years by paid
Russian trolls who are completely full of crap, and whom I've been
able to defeat every time just by quoting facts.

And now you're saying that you believe Russia's defense ministry when
they say that "the US is merely 'pretending' to fight ISIS," when ISIS
has been the main target of American forces in both the Obama and
Trump administrations, as I've been writing about for years? Are you
really so disoriented by Trump Derangement Syndrome that you're
willing to believe anything, no matter how moronic?

Are you really sure that you want to start believing the crap that
Russia puts out? Maybe you can get them to pay you. Try contacting
Russian Trollmaster Central in St. Petersburg, Russia.


** 15-Aug-14 World View -- Russia's sophisticated disinformation campaign over Ukraine
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e140815

** 17-Mar-15 World View -- The talking points of the Russian and Chinese internet trolls</li>
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e150317




** 8-Oct-16 World View -- Reader comments and questions on Syria, Russia, and Russian trolls
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e161008

[Ragnarök_62]

(10-10-2017, 06:53 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(10-10-2017, 05:41 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: >   Uh, please explain this then .

>   1. So, it's obvious that the US was/is all for IS. That means that
>   we have no business anywhere.  #StopWarsOfChoice

>   2. In the blind squirrel finds a nut department we have winner!
>   Cynic Hero is right.

 * Lucky Squirrel award for CH

>  

>   And well, it's true.... Dotards are like roaches.  Find 1 and
>   there's a scad more.

>   #BoomDotard [Hillery connived to push Obama into war stuff]
>  

Are you kidding me?  Russia has lied about everything -- invading
Ukraine, invading Ukraine, annexing Crimea, al-Assad's chemical
weapons, Aleppo, etc.  And I've been attacked for years by paid
Russian trolls who are completely full of crap, and whom I've been
able to defeat every time just by quoting facts.

And now you're saying that you believe Russia's defense ministry when
they say that "the US is merely 'pretending' to fight ISIS," when ISIS
has been the main target of American forces in both the Obama and
Trump administrations, as I've been writing about for years?  Are you
really so disoriented by Trump Derangement Syndrome that you're
willing to believe anything, no matter how moronic?

Are you really sure that you want to start believing the crap that
Russia puts out?  Maybe you can get them to pay you.  Try contacting
Russian Trollmaster Central in St. Petersburg, Russia.


** 15-Aug-14 World View -- Russia's sophisticated disinformation campaign over Ukraine
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e140815

** 17-Mar-15 World View -- The talking points of the Russian and Chinese internet trolls</li>
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/x...tm#e150317

Yeah, but I'll go ahead and toss Russia a "A blind squirrel finds a nut award as well".  

Lotsa incrimminating sources John.

http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2014...ria-assad/

The following is stupid because these wahoos don't know that the US homeland itself needs lots of TLC.
https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedin...ate-change

You have to recall the IS feed and seed job in Libya as well.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/19/us/po...libya.html

I bet if Qaddafi were still in power that wouldn't be a problem.  So, bombs away and await some evil seeds to sprout someday.

Btw, our latest quagmire in Afghanistan just turned 16. It's old enough for a driver's license now.

Russia trolling?  Not for that, but I'd love to get paid to troll SJW's.  Besides it's too cold where they live.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnew...ctory.html

Who to believe?  Dunno, I'd say just follow the money to get the real answers myself.  ... Anyhow, the US is pretty much fucked in the Mideast as I see it. Say these get rid of evil leader X.  After Assad, then what? Maybe another set of Kurds to fuck up relations wrt Turkey? Does Saudi Arabia like Kurds? I know the rest of Iraq would have a fit with "Kurdistan".

I like this:  http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/after-...le/2637089

[John J. Xenakis]

(10-10-2017, 07:52 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Who to believe? Dunno, I'd say just follow the money to get the
> real answers myself. ... Anyhow, the US is pretty much fucked in
> the Mideast as I see it. Say these get rid of evil leader X.
> After Assad, then what? Maybe another set of Kurds to fuck up
> relations wrt Turkey? Does Saudi Arabia like Kurds? I know the
> rest of Iraq would have a fit with "Kurdistan".

I've answered these questions many, many times. After ISIS is
defeated, all the groups fighting ISIS -- Turks, Turkmens, Sunni
Iraqis, Shia Iraqis, Iraqi Kurds, Syrian Kurds, Syrian regime, Syrian
Sunnis, Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah, Russians -- are going
to have no one left but to fight each other.

As you may know from my articles, Generational Dynamics predicts that
the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran.

Does that answer your questions?

[Ragnarök_62]

(10-10-2017, 08:06 PM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(10-10-2017, 07:52 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: >   Who to believe?  Dunno, I'd say just follow the money to get the
>   real answers myself.  ... Anyhow, the US is pretty much fucked in
>   the Mideast as I see it. Say these get rid of evil leader X.
>   After Assad, then what? Maybe another set of Kurds to fuck up
>   relations wrt Turkey? Does Saudi Arabia like Kurds? I know the
>   rest of Iraq would have a fit with "Kurdistan".

Quote:I've answered these questions many, many times.  After ISIS is
defeated, all the groups fighting ISIS -- Turks, Turkmens, Sunni
Iraqis, Shia Iraqis, Iraqi Kurds, Syrian Kurds, Syrian regime, Syrian
Sunnis, Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah, Russians -- are going
to have no one left but to fight each other.

Yes!  I completely agree.  IOW, like I said, a no win clusterfuck.

Quote:As you may know from my articles, Generational Dynamics predicts that
the Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other.  Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran.

Does that answer your questions?

Except one.  If Russia is going to be our ally, then why all the fuss over Russian X, where X = trolls, #fakenews,etc.?

If #fakenews works so well, why aren't we doing it?  It has a lot fewer causalities.

[Cynic Hero '86]

John X, one thing that is sure NOT going to happen is everyone adopting western style democracy and every country in the world adopting western style international norms. There is no way to get a democratic world cooperation out of these conflicts, wars, nations and factions.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 11-Oct-17 World View -- Tensions between Turks and Iraqi Kurds grow as another ISIS stronghold falls

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Hundreds of ISIS fighters surrender as Iraqi town of Hawija falls
  
• Tensions grow between Turkmens and Kurds in Kirkuk
  

****
**** Hundreds of ISIS fighters surrender as Iraqi town of Hawija falls
****


Iraqi forces flash victory sign after defeating ISIS in Hawija (AFP)

In a dramatic turn, hundreds of fighters from the so-called Islamic
State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) have surrendered en masse,
following the recapture of the town of Hawija from ISIS occupation,
suggesting that morale is collapsing among ISIS fighters.

However, they didn't surrender to the invading Iraqi Shia government
forces, presumably out of fear of retribution. Instead, they fled to
the city of Kirkuk, which is held by Peshmerga (Kurdish militia), and
surrendered to them. According to one Kurdish security official:

<QUOTE>"Approximately 1,000 men surrendered over the last
week. Not all, however, are terrorists. It's fair to say hundreds
probably are [ISIS] members, but that will be clear after the
debriefs."<END QUOTE>

ISIS was effectively defeated in Iraq in July, when Iraqi forces
captured Mosul, the group's de facto capital in Iraq, after a
bloody nine-month battle. ISIS still holds some territory in western
Iraq in a stretch of land along the border with Syria.

Iraq's Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi says that the rest of ISIS-held
territory will be recaptured by the end of the year.

Russian state media have been somewhat schizophrenic about the
situation. On the one hand, they've congratulated the Iraq government
for the victory in Hawija. On the other hand, because some ISIS
fighters have fled across the border into Syria, they've gone off the
deep end by claiming that the United States is only "pretending" to
fight against ISIS in Iraq. Very funny. Reuters and Sputnik (Moscow) and Al Bawaba and Russia Today

****
**** Tensions grow between Turkmens and Kurds in Kirkuk
****

The fight against ISIS has unified many groups of forces -- the
Iraqis, the Kurds, the Turks, the Russians, the Syrians, the Iranians,
Hezbollah, and the Americans -- in a common goal of defeating ISIS.
As ISIS continues to lose ground in both Iraq, all of these forces
are increasingly turning their attention to fighting each other.

As we reported a couple of days ago,
Kirkuk is becoming a flash point in northeastern Iraq. Since
2014, it was the Kurdish Peshmerga militia forces that have fought
ISIS and prevented a takeover of Kirkuk, and now the Kurds expect to
retain control of Kirkuk, especially as a result of the overwhelming
passage of the September 25 Kurdistan referendum on independence from
Iraq.

Turkmens are the third-largest ethnic group in Iraq, and claim to have
been denied their rights since Saddam Hussein was overthrown in 2003.
However, they've had their own internal problems because they've had
their own sectarian split between Sunni and Shia Turkmens. However,
the Turkmens in Kirkuk are united in that they do not want to be part
of an independent Kurdistan.

Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds have been cooperating as long as the
fight against ISIS in Mosul was progressing. But now,
Turkey's government is opposed to an independent Kurdistan,
and is particularly opposed to Kirkuk being part of
Kurdistan.

Devlet Bahçeli, the head of Turkey's Nationalist Movement Party (MHP),
says that contested regions of Iraq, such as Kirkuk and Mosul, are
"the lands of Turkmens." There is a big Kurdish community in Turkey,
including members of the terrorist group Kurdistan Workers' Party
(PKK), which has been conducting terrorist acts in Turkey for decades.
Turkey fears that any sort of Kurdish independence in Iraq will
energize the PKK in Turkey. Bahçeli says:

<QUOTE>"The safety of Kirkuk is the safety of Ankara. If the
land of Turkmens is put into the fire, Turkey will not be safe.

The independence bid is an attempt to resurrect the Sévres
[Treaty] and to fracture neighboring countries

“A rehearsal for Kurdistan will affect the future of the Republic
of Turkey. It is a question of survival, a matter of sociological
fragmentation."<END QUOTE>

Bahçeli referred to the 1920 Treaty of Sévres, which divided up
Ottoman territory after World War I. Al Monitor and Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Hurriyet (Ankara)

Related Articles

• Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum (03-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Israel may be the only country recognizing the Iraq Kurdistan referendum (27-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Concerns grow over chaos in Iraq after ISIS is defeated in Mosul (22-Mar-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Hawija, Kirkuk, Kurdistan, Peshmerga,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Mosul, Haider al-Abadi, Turkmens, Kurds,
turkey, Devlet Bahçeli, Nationalist Movement Party, MHP,
Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, Treaty of Sévres

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John J. Xenakis
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

(10-10-2017, 08:39 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: > Except one. If Russia is going to be our ally, then why all the
> fuss over Russian X, where X = trolls, #fakenews,etc.?

> If #fakenews works so well, why aren't we doing it? It has a lot
> fewer causalities.

Russia will be our ally for the same reason that Stalin was our ally -
they're less worse than the alternative.

In my opinion, fake news and trolls do no good at all except produce
political chaos. Russia's trolls and fake news claim that Russia
didn't invade Crimea, and yet there are still American and European
sanctions on Russia for invading Crimea. Russia claims they didn't
shoot down the airliner, but everyone believes they did. Russia
claims that al-Assad didn't use Sarin gas, but everyone believes they
did. In my opinion, Russia's fake news and trolls not only did them
no good, they caused enormous harm, because Russian officials and
media have almost no credibility any more.

I believe that Vladimir Putin is repeating the same disastrous
historical mistake that Stalin made. Stalin was completely humiliated
and made a complete fool of by Hitler with the Molotov-Ribintroff
agreement, which was possibly the greatest diplomatic disaster in
Russia's history. Putin should be embracing Europe and the West, but
instead is sucking up to China, which is going to turn on Russia just
as Hitler did.

[John J. Xenakis]

(10-10-2017, 09:38 PM)Cynic Hero 86 Wrote: > John X, one thing that is sure NOT going to happen is everyone
> adopting western style democracy and every country in the world
> adopting western style international norms. There is no way to get
> a democratic world cooperation out of these conflicts, wars,
> nations and factions.

You'll get no disagreement from me. You're talking about the disastrous
neo-con philosophy of "democracy through invasion," which is based on
a vastly naive and ridiculous misinterpretation of history.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 12-Oct-17 World View -- Palestinian reconciliation talks ignore Hamas commitment to destroy Israel

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Palestinian reconciliation talks ignore Hamas commitment to destroy Israel
  
• Palestinian unity talks face disagreement on Hamas's 'resistance weapons'
  

****
**** Palestinian reconciliation talks ignore Hamas commitment to destroy Israel
****


Israeli soldier on the Gaza border (Jerusalem Post)

The two major governing factions for the Palestinian territories --
Hamas, which governs the Gaza Strip, and Fatah, which governs the
Palestinian Authority (PA) in the West Bank -- are meeting in Cairo,
the capital city of Egypt, in order to try to find a way to form a
unity government. The meeting comes at the invitation of Egypt's
president Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi.

In 2005, Israel withdrew all Jewish settlements from the Gaza Strip,
in order to promote peace with the Palestinians, and as a step in the
so-called "peace process" between Israel and the Palestinians. The
intention was that Fatah would govern both Gaza and the West Bank, and
negotiations for permanent peace with Israel would proceed.

However, in 2006 the rival faction Hamas scored a landslide victory in
parliamentary elections in the Gaza Strip, completely shutting out
Fatah. Fatah tried to regain control of Gaza through military means
in 2007, but was quickly defeated by Hamas. in a stunning surprise victory that shocked the entire Mideast.

Since then, there have been numerous attempts at a "unity government"
between Fatah and Hamas, and all have failed spectacularly. And so,
at the invitation of Egypt, why not give it another shot?

It's easy to believe that the Palestinians are homogeneous, all with
the same world view and behaviors. That may have been true decades
ago, but it's certainly not true today. The Palestinians in Gaza and
the West Bank have been physically separated from one another for
several generations, and the two regions have grown into two
completely distinct cultures.

There are even important demographic differences, according to the CIA
World Fact Book: The average age in the West Bank is 20.8, and in Gaza
it's 16.9. The average population growth rates are 2.3% and 1.8%,
respectively. By way of contrast, the average age in the United
States is 37.9, and the growth rate is 0.8%.

So if the average age in Gaza is 16.9, then Gaza is essentially a
society of teenage children. Furthermore, the unemployment rate in
Gaza is 43%, one of the highest in the world. So now tell this
society of children with little education and no hope of a job that
they're going to be governed by the 82-year-old PA president Mahmoud
Abbas, and from that fact alone you can see what a fantasy the entire
Palestinian unity and reconciliation process is.

Nonetheless, the Palestinian press says that the meeting in Cairo has
a "positive atmosphere," and the talks were held “out of a sense of
national responsibility and in response to the aspirations of the
Palestinian people looking for an end to the division, achieve
national unity and strengthen the steadfastness of our people.”

Egypt's president Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi said that the talks were a
prelude to peace:

<QUOTE>"Ongoing Egyptian moves to help our Palestinian
brothers start a new stage of unity in the Palestinian ranks is
preparation for a just peace between Palestinian and Israeli
sides, and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state
to meet legitimate aspirations of the Palestinian people for a
secure, stable and prosperous life."<END QUOTE>

However, the two Palestinian factions decided to not even discuss the
question of peace with Israel, but to appoint a new commission to
study the matter.

The first detailed Generational Dynamics analysis that I wrote was in
May 2003, after President George Bush offered his "Mideast Roadmap to
Peace," which was to bring peace to the Mideast. The analysis,
"Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?", said that a Mideast peace was impossible, because the
Jews and the Arabs would be re-fighting the 1948 war that following
the partitioning of Palestine by the United Nations, and the creation
of the state of Israel.

I wrote that a new war was being prevented by Ariel Sharon and Yasser
Arafat, traumatized survivors of the 1948 war who would do anything to
keep it from happening again. I wrote that when these two men died,
and younger people were in charge, it was likely that war would begin
again.

At the death of Yasser Arafat
in
November, 2004, the amount of international rejoicing was enormous.
Everyone in the West believed that it was Arafat who had prevented the
Israeli-Palestinian peace process from going forward. Actually, as I
explained repeatedly, it was not Arafat preventing peace. It was the
younger generations of Palestinians who were preventing peace. If
Arafat had any role at all, it was to hold back the tide of a major
new war.

Arafat was replaced by Mahmoud Abbas in January 2005, another survivor
of the 1948 war. It's my belief that Abbas continued to prevent a
major war with Israel, following the path of Arafat. It's worth
noting that since then there has not been a war between Israel and the
West Bank, although Israel has had two wars with Gaza, and one war
with Hezbollah in Lebanon. Palestinian News Network (Pnn) and Times of Israel and Palestinian News Agency (Wafa)

****
**** Palestinian unity talks face disagreement on Hamas's 'resistance weapons'
****

According to Israel's Major General Yoav Mordechai, Hamas terrorists
in Gaza are using lasers to blind Israeli soldiers on the other side
of the border. In a statement he said:

<QUOTE>"The leadership of Hamas leadership is not able to
control its operatives, and will thus lead to an Israeli response
against Hamas activists.

This situation is dangerous because the continued provocative
attempts to blind soldiers carried out by the terrorist
operatives, even if not guided by their commanders, is likely to
lead to escalation at this sensitive time of developments in the
Palestinian arena; therefore, be warned.

The continuation of this phenomenon will lead to an IDF
response."<END QUOTE>

This perfectly illustrates why there will be a major war between
Palestinians and Jews long before there's any peace. Even if Hamas
leadership and Hamas commanders wanted peace, the Gaza population,
consisting mostly of children with an average age of 16.9, do not.
This kind of thing is at the heart of any Generational Dynamics
analysis.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the Palestinian unity talks
as a threat to the existence of Israel:

<QUOTE>"We expect anyone talking about a peace process to
recognize Israel and, of course, recognize a Jewish state, and we
won’t accept faux reconciliations in which the Palestinian side
reconciles at the expense of our existence.

We have a very straightforward attitude toward anyone who wants to
effect such a reconciliation: Recognize the State of Israel,
dismantle Hamas’s military wing, sever the relationship with Iran,
which calls for our destruction.<END QUOTE>

Hamas's military wing, Izzadin Kassam, may be a deal breaker in the
Palestinian unity talks. Mahmoud Abbas has said that he would not
accept a scenario in which Hamas’s armed wing, Izzadin Kassam, kept
control of its weapons.

On the other hand, a spokesman for Hamas said:

<QUOTE>"The resistance's weapons are legal. They are here to
protect Palestinians and free their lands [from Israeli
occupation]."<END QUOTE>

So apparently Hamas's spokesman agrees with Netanyahu -- that the
unity talks present a risk to the existence of Israel. AFP and Israel National News and Jerusalem Post and Times of Israel and Tasnim News (Iran)

Related Articles

• Hamas' stunning Gaza victory shocks entire Mideast (22-Jun-2007)
  
  
• Palestinian unity announcement canceled over Hamas-Fatah split (21-Jun-2011)
  
  
• Warring Palestinian factions announce a reconciliation agreement (24-Apr-2014)
  
  
• Mahmoud Abbas threatens to end the 'Palestinian unity' government (08-Sep-2014)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, West Bank, Gaza, Palestinian Authority,
Hamas, Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Egypt, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, Ariel Sharon, Yasser Arafat,
Yoav Mordechai, Izzadin Kassam
Generational Dynamics, West Bank, Gaza, Palestinian Authority,
Hamas, Fatah, Mahmoud Abbas, Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu,
Egypt, Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, Ariel Sharon, Yasser Arafat,
Yoav Mordechai, Izzadin Kassam

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 13-Oct-17 World View -- Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Iraqi troops and tanks seen massing near Kirkuk, poised to attack Kurds
  
• Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas announce unity agreement
  
• Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib in apparent truce with HTS
  

****
**** Iraqi troops and tanks seen massing near Kirkuk, poised to attack Kurds
****


A group of masked Hash Al-Shaabi forces (Iraqi Shia Muslim Popular Mobilization Units) seen near Kirkuk late Thursday (Kurdistan 24)

Iraqi forces along with Iranian-trained paramilitaries have been seen
on Friday morning massing near Kurdish-occupied Kirkuk in northeastern
Iraq. Iraq has rejected Kurdistan's independence referendum, and
oil-rich Kirkuk has become a flash point.

It's not known whether the massing of Iraqi forces is simply a show of
force, or is the prelude to a full-scale attack on Kirkuk. Kurdistan 24

Related: Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum (03-Oct-2017)

****
**** Palestinian factions Fatah and Hamas announce unity agreement
****

Egypt announced on Thursday that the Palestinian factions
Fatah and Hamas had reached a reconciliation agreement,
as an outcome of the Egypt-sponsored reconciliation talks
being held in Cairo.

Thousands of Palestinians took to the streets across Gaza on Thursday
in celebration of the agreement, with loudspeakers on open cars
blasting national songs, youths dancing and hugging and many waving
Palestine and Egyptian flags.

As expected, the agreement did not even attempt to address the two
major issues splitting Fatah and Hamas:

• Hamas is still committed to the destruction of Israel,
  while Fatah under Mahmoud Abbas is not, and wants a peace
  agreement with Israel.
  
  
• Hamas still wants control of its armed wing, the Izzadin Kassam
  brigades, with its huge cache of "resistance weapons," to be used in a
  future war with Israel. Mahmoud Abbas rejects any unity agreement
  that doesn't transfer control of Izzadin Kassam to Fatah.

As we pointed out yesterday,
the
average of Gaza's population is 16.9, and so the Izzadin Kassam
brigades is undoubtedly heavily populated with teenagers who wouldn't
be inclined to take orders from 82 year old Mahmoud Abbas anyway.

Nonetheless, this agreement was greeted with loud cheers
from Gaza civilians, because it promises respite from heavy
sanctions that have been imposed on Gaza by both Egypt and Fatah.
Egypt rarely opens the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt,
and so it's impossible for Palestinians to leave Gaza or for
supplies to be brought in. The agreement calls for the Rafah
crossing to be controlled by the Fatah-Hamas unity government.

The other sanctions had been imposed by Fatah in the form of cutting
the salaries of employees in Gaza, and cutting the electricity supply
to Gaza. The unity government will restore the salaries and
electricity.

The agreement supposedly transfers administrative control of Gaza to
Abbas's Palestinian Authority (PA) as of December 1, subject to
further negotiations in November.

The agreement also stipulates that legislative, presidential and
national council elections should be conducted within one year of its
signing. It's worth remembering that the open rift between Hamas and
Fatah began in 2006 when Hamas resoundingly defeated Fatah in
legislative elections. If there's a presidential election, then it's
very likely that Mahmoud Abbas will be replaced by someone much
younger and much less willing to compromise, and much more willing to
fight a war with Israel.
Al Ahram (Cairo) and Reuters and BBC

Related: Palestinian reconciliation talks ignore Hamas commitment to destroy Israel (12-Oct-2017)

****
**** Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib in apparent truce with HTS
****

The first convoy of Turkey's military forces crossed into Syria's
Idlib province late on Thursday. This is the first deployment
following Saturday's announcement by Turkey of a major military operation
in Idlib province. The purpose
of the operation is to establish a "de-escalation zone," as agreed in
July by Turkey, Russia and Iran, meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan.

The primary objective of the de-escalation zone operation is to bring
peace to Idlib, by protecting Sunni Muslims from Bashar al-Assad's
forces and by keeping the different anti-Assad rebel groups from
fighting each other. I had been expected that the Turkish forces
would evict al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from Idlib in
order to reach this objective.

HTS was not part of the de-escalation deal and opposed it. But HTS
militias in the last few days have been seen escorting Turkish
reconnaissance teams into Idlib, suggesting that Turkey and HTS have
reached a peace agreement, or at least a ceasefire agreement, for the
time being.

So for the time being, Turkey's incursion into Idlib has these
objectives:

• To protect its borders from HTS militias
  
• To prevent the Kurdish based YPG forces from controlling
  areas further west, and completing a corridor from Iraq to
  the Mediterranean which it would then declare to be the
  independent state of Rojava.
  
• To minimize refugee flows into Turkey from Idlib, which is
  where they fled when Bashar al-Assad and Russia making Aleppo
  uninhabitable.
  
• To protect civilians from airstrikes by Russian and
  al-Assad warplanes.
  
• To create a protected buffer zone into which Syrian refugees
  already in Turkey could be sent in order to return them to
  Syria.

According to reports, Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the head of HTS, is
deeply distrusted by moderate rebel groups (Failaq al-Sham, Nour
al-Din al-Zinki brigades, and Ahrar al-Sham), who are eager to
initiate a conflict with HTS.

Warplanes from Russia and al-Assad have been stepping up airstrikes on
Syrian civilians, including women and children, striking hospital and
schools. Civilians in Idlib, many of whom fled Aleppo, are
reluctantly accepting the need for Turkish forces. According to one
resident, "Turkey intervening may be the best solution to Syria's
situation because Russia and Assad will stop at nothing to destroy the
whole of Syria." Daily Sabah (Ankara) and Reuters and Syria Deeply and Middle East Eye

Related Articles

• Turkey announces major military operation in Syria's Idlib province (09-Oct-2017)
  
  
• UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura predicts total destruction of Aleppo by Christmas (07-Oct-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Kurdistan, Kirkuk,
Egypt, Palestine, Gaza, West Bank, Fatah, Hamas,
Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian Authority,
Izzadin Kassam brigades, Israel,
Turkey, Syria, Idlib, Russia, Iran, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Bashar al-Assad, Aleppo,
Abu Mohammad al-Julani, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS,
Failaq al-Sham, Nour al-Din al-Zinki brigades, Ahrar al-Sham

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 14-Oct-17 World View -- Thousands of Haitians living in Miami scheduled for deportation in January

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• The last UN peacekeepers leave Haiti after 14 years
  
• Thousands of Haitians living in Miami scheduled for deportation in January
  

****
**** The last UN peacekeepers leave Haiti after 14 years
****


People dump trash and raw sewage into canals that run through Port-au-Prince, Haiti. When it rains, the canals overflow and flood poor neighborhoods. (NPR)

Haiti often appears to be a cursed nation. One of the poorest nations
in the world, it has suffered one calamity after another.

The United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH) was
established in 2004 after armed conflicts that had spread across the
country. Then, on January 12, 2010, the earthquake struck, killing
316,000 people and leaving more than 1.5 million people homeless, and
3.3 million facing food shortages. More UN peacekeepers were sent in
the aftermath, including some of Nepal that infected the water with
cholera. Haiti had previously been free of cholera, but now cholera
is endemic.

There have been numerous attempts to help the Haitian people,
including a Haiti Fund sponsored by former presidents Bill Clinton and
George W Bush. The fund received some $54 million in donations, which
was donated to small businesses in the form of grants and loans, with
an emphasis on fish farming, architecture and nursing. All the money
was spent in about 18 months. According to the fund spokesman, by the
time the fund had closed down, it had directly created or sustained
7,350 jobs and affected more than 311,000 people in Haiti.

Now that the peacekeeping mission is being closed down after nearly 15
years, the descriptions of its accomplishments are only lukewarm.
Sandra Honoré, the head of the peacekeeping force, says that Haiti has
made significant progress since U.N. forces arrived in 2004 amid
massive street protests and a bloody rebellion that toppled
democratically elected President Jean-Bertrand Aristide:

<QUOTE>"The Haitian people enjoy a considerable degree of
security and greater stability. Political violence has diminished
considerably. Armed gangs no longer hold the population hostage.
All three branches of power are in place with the executive and
legislative branches restored to full functioning.

However, [immediate improvements] have yet to be felt by the vast
majority of the population, particularly in poor urban
areas."<END QUOTE>

So with that relatively unenthusiastic endorsement, the stabilization
effort is ending on Sunday, when the last peacekeepers will be
withdrawn.

The final report on the effort, delivered to the UN Security Council,
listed several achievements, but warned of some potential problems,
eight months after Jovenel Moïse took office as president.

One issue is that elections to establish councils and assemblies at
the municipal levels have been stalled. As regular readers are aware,
this is a story that I've seen over and over, in country after country
in a generational Awakening era, following a civil war. A political
leader, usually on the winning side of the war, takes power and
refuses to give it up, often using brutal tactics, including torture,
jailings and rapes to suppress the opposition. This kind of brutal
tactic hasn't occurred in Haiti, but Haiti has a history of such
tactics, and the peacekeepers haven't left yet. It remains to be seen
whether and when these elections will be held.

A second issue is that Moïse is building an army of 3,000 soldiers, to
fill the security vacuum left by the departing peacekeepers, and he is
taking direct control of the recruitment. Haiti has a history of the
prime minister or president of using the army as a weapon against the
opposition, in order to remain in power.

There's already a Haitian National Police which now has about 15,000
trained members, which was set up by the departing peacekeepers. But
apparently Moïse would rather build his own army, with his own people
in charge and under his complete control. Miami Herald and United Nations
and Public Radio International and ReliefWeb and BBC (11-Jul)

****
**** Thousands of Haitians living in Miami scheduled for deportation in January
****

Some 24,000 Haitians arrived in the United States following the
January 2010 Haiti earthquake, and they were given "Temporary
Protected Status" (TPS) by the Obama administration, allowing them to
stay in the country and work, and send remittances back to their
families in Haiti.

The TPS for Haiti was meant to last only 18 months, but it kept
getting 18-month extensions under the Obama administration. When the
last TPS extension expired in May, the DHS announced a final six-month
extension. In a statement from DHS:

<QUOTE>"The Department of Homeland Security urges Haitian TPS
recipients who do not have another immigration status to use the
time before Jan. 22, 2018, to prepare for and arrange their
departure from the United States."<END QUOTE>

According to immigration rights activist Marleine Bastien:

<QUOTE>"Thousands of Haitian TPS recipients have been living
in the U.S. for an average of seven to 25 years. To deport them
and force them to leave behind their U.S.-born children will be a
catastrophe of great magnitude."<END QUOTE>

Bastien says that if Haitians are deported back to Haiti, they'll be
facing famine and poverty. Many will go underground to avoid being
deported.

Bastien is demanding that the TPS benefit be extended not just for
another 18 months, but forever, or until a way is found to get
Haitians off TPS, and grant them legal residency. Miami New Times and Miami Herald

Related Articles

• US will deport tens of thousands of Haitian immigrants surging toward California (25-Sep-2016)
  
  
• Canada receives record numbers of Mexican asylum seekers after Trudeau's welcome tweet (13-May-2017)
  
  
• Thousands of migrants flee to Canada, fearing deportation in the US (04-Aug-2017)
  
  
• Violence and cholera spread in Haiti (09-Dec-2010)
  
  
• History of Haiti (04-Mar-2004)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Haiti, Bill Clinton, George W Bush,
United Nations Stabilization Mission in Haiti, MINUSTAH,
Sandra Honoré, Jean-Bertrand Aristide, Jovenel Moïse,
Temporary Protected Status, TPS, Marleine Bastien

Permanent web link to this article
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[Ragnarök_62]

(10-11-2017, 05:37 AM)John J. Xenakis Wrote:

(10-10-2017, 08:39 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: >   Except one.  If Russia is going to be our ally, then why all the
>   fuss over Russian X, where X = trolls, #fakenews,etc.?

>   If #fakenews works so well, why aren't we doing it?  It has a lot
>   fewer causalities.

Quote:Russia will be our ally for the same reason that Stalin was our ally -
they're less worse than the alternative.

Yes, of course, politics does make for strange bed fellows we all know.  War is just politics by force.

Quote:In my opinion, fake news and trolls do no good at all except produce
political chaos.  Russia's trolls and fake news claim that Russia
didn't invade Crimea, and yet there are still American and European
sanctions on Russia for invading Crimea.  Russia claims they didn't
shoot down the airliner, but everyone believes they did.  Russia
claims that al-Assad didn't use Sarin gas, but everyone believes they
did.  In my opinion, Russia's fake news and trolls not only did them
no good, they caused enormous harm, because Russian officials and
media have almost no credibility any more.

 

I'd call the above as Russian propaganda I'd call "political chaos" as an actual actionable goal  for say the CIA. I do think the CIA has
done this actionable goal by other means.  The CIA just needs to take the #Fakenews and do it themselves. I have no issue with CIA troll farms added to that they already do. Btw, I've caught CNN doing fake news. They sed it was illegal to look at Wikileaks, which is obviously #Fakenews.  Then again, maybe the CIA already has troll farms.  CNN seams to act sorta like Russia trolls.

Quote:I believe that Vladimir Putin is repeating the same disastrous
historical mistake that Stalin made.  Stalin was completely humiliated
and made a complete fool of by Hitler with the Molotov-Ribintroff
agreement, which was possibly the greatest diplomatic disaster in
Russia's history.  Putin should be embracing Europe and the West, but
instead is sucking up to China, which is going to turn on Russia just
as Hitler did.

Speaking of Russia, I think we ourselves can learn lessons from them  ourselves.

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 15-Oct-17 World View -- Armies and militias fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria increasingly turn on each other

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Mattis and Tillerson work to prevent Iraq vs Kurd military confrontation in Kirkuk
  
• ISIS fighters permitted to leave Raqqa, Syria, with human shields
  
• Syria demands 'immediately' pullout of Turkey's forces from Idlib province
  

****
**** Mattis and Tillerson work to prevent Iraq vs Kurd military confrontation in Kirkuk
****


Defaced Kurdistan flags at a former Peshmerga position now held by Iraqi forces on Friday (AFP)

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) says that Iraqi army troops
and fighters from the Shia Popular Mobilization Unit (PMU, Hashd
al-Shaabi) militias are massed on the border of the city of Kirkuk,
which has been controlled by the Kurdish Peshmerga militias since 2014,
when they evicted the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or
Daesh) from the city. There have already been some conflicts between
Iraqi troops and Peshmerga in villages south of Kirkuk in the last few
days.

The KRG ran an independence referendum on September 25, and the vote
among the Kurds for independence was above 90%. This referendum was
internationally condemned before, during and after the vote took
place because it created unrealistic expectations.

Now that the referendum has been successful, the Kurds want to be
rewarded for all they did in defeating ISIS. They want independence
and, in particular, they want to keep Kirkuk. They say they want it
for its symbolic value, but it's more likely that they want it because
it's sitting on a huge amount of oil. This oil is a big part of
Kurdistan's economy. It's currently going through a pipeline through
Turkey to the Black Sea, but Turkey, which doesn't want an independent
Kurdistan, is threatening to close the pipeline.

With Iraqi army and Shia militia troops massed on the Kirkuk border,
KRG says that Iraq's government has set a deadline of early Sunday
morning for the Peshmerga to withdraw from positions being held in
Kirkuk. As of this writing on Saturday evening ET, that deadline has
passed.

The United States is keeping close watch on the situation by means of
overflights. Both Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense
Secretary Jim Mattis have been urging both sides to keep focused on
fighting ISIS, not each other. Mattis said on Friday:

<QUOTE>"We have to work on this. The Secretary of State has
the lead, but my forces are integrated among these forces, and
they are working, too, to make certain we keep any potential for
conflict off the table. ...

We are trying to tone everything down and to figure out how we go
forward without losing sight of the enemy, and at the same time
recognizing that we have got to find a way to move forward.

Everybody stay focused on defeating ISIS. We can’t turn on each
other right now. We don’t want to go to a shooting
situation."<END QUOTE>

As everyone has been saying for months, all the various armies and
militias fighting ISIS in Iraq and Syria would have nothing better to
do than start fighting each other, once ISIS was defeated. In Iraq,
ISIS has been evicted from Mosul and other major cities. The Kurds,
the Iraqi army and the Shia militias achieved a great victory, and now
they're going to celebrate by killing each other. AFP and Kurdistan 24 and Bloomberg and Rudaw (Kurdistan)

****
**** ISIS fighters permitted to leave Raqqa, Syria, with human shields
****

The eviction of ISIS from Raqqa, their former stronghold in Syria, is
almost complete. The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF),
consisting mostly of Syrian Kurdish fighters, are permitting dozens of
buses to evacuate the remaining ISIS fighters and their families,
along with about 400 civilians to be used as human shields. The SDF,
backed by US warplanes, have been fighting ISIS in Raqqa.

According to the SDF, the buses will take the surrendered fighters
further east to Deir az-Zour province, much of which remains under
ISIS control.

The evacuation deal was pursued by the United States military as a way
to allow the SDF to secure the last parts of the city, without
requiring bloody house to house fighting that would kill hundreds of
civilians. According to a US-led coalition statement:

<QUOTE>"The arrangement is designed to minimize civilian
casualties and purportedly excludes foreign Daesh [ISIS]
terrorists as people trapped in the city continue to flee the
impending fall of Daesh's so-called capital.

People departing Raqqa under the arrangement are subject to search
and screening by Syrian Democratic Forces."<END QUOTE>

With ISIS defeated in both Iraq and Syria, the analyst Sami Hamdi,
editor of International Interest, gave a concise analysis of
what can be expected next, in an interview on Al-Jazeera (my
transcription):

<QUOTE>"In Iraq you have the Popular Mobilization Units
(PMUs) that terrify the Sunni population, who were marginalized in
the first place, and whose villages constituted the haven in which
ISIS operates.

In Syria you still have a dictatorial regime hell bent on crushing
its people's democratic desires.

You have the Kurdish who are pursuing independence. You have the
Russians who are terrified of an American-leaning state. You have
the Iranians who wish to establish hegemony in the region.

So we don't really see any reintegration. On the contrary, we see
humanitarian crises in cities such as Mosul. We will see a
humanitarian crisis in cities such as Raqqa.

There is nothing to suggest that there will be a reintegration of
these communities into mainstream society. And this leads to one
outcome -- a division within the region, new borders, a modern
Kurdistan, and other areas seeking their own independent
autonomous states.

When we talk about the defeat of ISIS we should be wary. ISIS on
the ground will be defeated. Losing Raqqa will be a big blow to
them. But ISIS in the political discourse will continue.

Because as long as there is an ISIS in the mainstream media and
political discourse, Iran can justify keeping the Revolutionary
Guards in Syria.

As long as there is an ISIS in Syria, Turkey can justify military
force to restrict Kurdish movement.

As long as there is an ISIS, Russia can continue to keep its
troops in Syria, on the pretext of fighting terrorism.

As long as there is an ISIS, the Popular Mobilization Units can
claim legitimacy to stay as an ultra-violent military force
outside of military control.

So ISIS will be defeated militarily, it might resort to guerrilla
tactics, but politically in the discourse, it's not quite time for
the international powers to shelve the topic of ISIS and pursue
other interests."<END QUOTE>

In neighboring Deir az-Zour province, the army of the Syrian regime
captured the ISIS stronghold of Mayadeen. Telegraph (London) and CNN

****
**** Syria demands 'immediately' pullout of Turkey's forces from Idlib province
****

As we've been reporting in the last few days, Turkey has deployed
tanks and troops into Syria's Idlib province, with the objective of
bringing peace to the Idlib "de-escalation zone." Turkey's incursion
is part of an agreement reached with Iran and Russia in Astana,
Kazakhstan, in July.

However, now Syria's Foreign Ministry is demanding that Turkey
withdraw its forces, something that almost certainly result in renewed
fighting in Idlib, particularly between the al-Qaeda linked Hayat
Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other anti-Assad Sunni rebel militias, many
of whom are opposed to the presence of HTS.

According to the Syrian statement:

<QUOTE>"Syria condemns in the strongest terms the incursion
of units of the Turkish army in Idlib province, which constitutes
a flagrant aggression against the sovereignty and security of
Syrian territory.

The Turkish aggression is not tied in any way with the
understandings that were reached between the guarantor states in
the Astana process, but constitutes a violation of these
understandings."<END QUOTE>

The Syrian government has in the past expressed opposition to the
entire "de-escalation zone" agreement, but the agreement was forced on
Syria's president Bashar al-Assad by Russia's government. Al-Assad
has announced that he expects to regain control of all of Syria, and
few people doubt that if given the opportunity, he would like to bomb
all of Idlib province into oblivion, killing hundreds of thousands of
innocent civilians, including women and children, as he did last year
in Aleppo.

The Astana agreement is supposed to bring about a ceasefire throughout
Syria, and bring peace. However, as the saying goes, "Peace is that
brief, glorious moment in history when everybody stands around
reloading."

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that the
Mideast is headed for a major regional war, pitting Sunnis versus
Shias, Jews versus Arabs, and various ethnic groups against each
other. Generational Dynamics predicts that in the approaching Clash
of Civilizations world war, the "axis" of China, Pakistan and the
Sunni Muslim countries will be pitted against the "allies," the US,
India, Russia and Iran. Anadolu (Ankara) and Deutsche Welle and Russia Today

Related Articles

• Turkey's tanks and troops cross border into Syria's Idlib (13-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Tensions between Turks and Iraqi Kurds grow as another ISIS stronghold falls (11-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum (03-Oct-2017)
  
  
• With ceasefire, American forces become more deeply involved in Syria's civil war (11-Jul-2017)
  
  
• UN Syria envoy Staffan de Mistura predicts total destruction of Aleppo by Christmas (07-Oct-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Government, KRG,
Popular Mobilization Unit, PMU, Kirkuk, Mosul, Peshmerga,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh
Rex Tillerson, Jim Mattis, Sami Hamdi, Mayadeen,
Syria, Raqqa, Syrian Democratic Forces, SDF,
Deir Ezzor, Deir al-Zour, Deir ez-Zor, Deir Azzour,
Bashar al-Assad, Turkey, Idlib, Astana, Kazakhstan,
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, HTS

Permanent web link to this article
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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
Cambridge, MA 02142
Phone: 617-864-0010
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 16-Oct-17 World View -- Bitcoin super-bubble surges through $5,000 and blasts even higher

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Bitcoin super-bubble surges through $5,000 and blasts even higher
  
• Stock market continues its huge bubble
  

****
**** Bitcoin super-bubble surges through $5,000 and blasts even higher
****


Price of Bitcoin 7/18/2010 to 10/15/2017 (Coindesk.com)

The price of the international currency Bitcoin surged past $5,000 on
Thursday, and reached $5,809 on Sunday, before falling back to
$5,712.97. It started the year at a measly $966, and has risen
meteorically all year, if you don't count the fact that it fell to
$3226.41 on Sept 14 from $4950.72 on Sept 1.

I've been asked by several people recently about my recommendations
for investing in Bitcoin. Investing in Bitcoin is the road to
disaster. I literally cannot think of a worse investment today than
Bitcoin, or the various copycat newcomers, such as Ethereum. Bitcoin
is almost literally a Ponzi scheme backed by nothing but air.

Let's take a look at some other investments.

Suppose you want to buy an apartment building as an investment. You
start by estimating the income -- how much money you'll be paid in
rents. Then you estimate all the expenses -- mortgage payments,
repairs, real estate taxes, and so forth. All of these income and
expense amounts are spread out over time, usually over decades, so you
have to perform "present value" computations for future income and
payments. (If you're interested in the mathematical details, see my
2008 article, "A primer on financial engineering and structured finance")

So when you're finished, you get a number that represents the value of
the apartment building for investment purpose. If the value is, say,
$625,000, then you know that you should spend no more than $625,000
for the apartment building, because that's all it's worth.

Another investment is stock shares. A stock share is backed by the
company that issues the shares, and the company's earnings are
published in annual reports. The higher the earnings, the more the
stock share is worth. This is usually measured by the "price/earnings
ratio," which is the price of a share divided by the annual earnings
per share. Historically, investors expect to earn about 7% return on
investment in stock shares, which means that the P/E ratio should be
around 1/.07, or about 14. Today, the average P/E ratio is 25, so
stocks are way overpriced and in a bubble, as I'll discuss below.

Another investment is tulips. I'm referring here to the historic
"Tulipomania bubble" that occurred in Holland in the 1600s, when the
price of a single Tulip bulb rose to be higher than the price of a
house. The bubble burst in 1637, causing a financial disaster across
Europe.

In the fall of 1636, you could purchase a certificate guaranteeing to
you a tulip bulb of a certain type and weight the following spring,
and you could pay for it with a personal credit note. Edward
Chancellor's 1999 book, Devil Take the Hindmost, a history of
financial speculation tells what happened:

<QUOTE>"By the later stages of the mania, the fusion of the
[i]windhandel with paper credit created a perfect symmetry of
insubstantiality: most transactions were for tulip bulbs that
could never be delivered because they didn't exist and were paid
for with credit notes that could never be honored because the
money wasn't there."<END QUOTE>[/i]

In other words, at the height of the bubble, there was this "perfect
symmetry of insubstantiality": A person would buy a certificate
representing a tulip, and give in return an IOU. The buyer could at
least hope that the certificate represented an actual tulip, just as
the purchaser of an apartment building knows that there is an actual
apartment building somewhere.

But with Bitcoin there's nothing. If you spend money on a Bitcoin,
and you don't get rid of it right away, then you have nothing that
backs it up in any way.

Before proceeding, let me put on my Senior Software Engineer hat. The
"blockchain" technology is what the Bitcoin is based on. This is a
solid technology, and it's a major advance in programming data
structures that goes far beyond currency in leveraging the power of
the internet. The problem with internet transactions in general is
that if you do something online then you have no way of proving what
you did. If you buy a coat online then you may be able to prove
through your bank (a third party) that you paid for it, but you can't
prove that you bought a coat unless the merchant confirms that you
did. That's fine in most cases, but blockchain technology allows you
to make any sort of online transaction and prove that it occurred,
without having to depend on a third party. This applies to such
things as financial transactions, smart contracts, and even voting.
So, whatever the value of Bitcoin is, the underlying technology is
solid.

So now let me take my Senior Software Engineer hat off, and again put
on my Prophet of Doom hat.

There's a concept in Bitcoin technology called a "hard fork."
Technically, it simply means that the blockchain software is being
updated to a new version where transactions might have a different
representation. Ideally, everyone simply uses the new transaction
format. But since the Bitcoin community is mostly a collection of
airheads, it's possible to continue using both the old and new
transaction formats, so that now there are two currencies where there
used to be only one, and so there's the opportunity to create two
bubbles instead of just one.

Bitcoin had a fork in August, and here's how a news story on
Coindesk.com describes it:

<QUOTE>"Yet it seems, investors believe the momentum is
warranted given the results of the last hard fork in August, which
split the network in two, but did so in a way that fairly safely
created a new asset called bitcoin cash.

Distributed to all bitcoin owners at the time of the fork,
investors were suddenly given an equal amount of valuable
cryptocurrency (bitcoin cash has held relatively steady around
$300 per coin, but has traded for as much as $1,000). Far from a
risky proposition, investors see that extra value as just created
out of thin air and delivered to existing investors for
free."<END QUOTE>

Anyone who reads these two paragraphs would have to laugh and think
it's a joke. But not for these airheads. These investors think of a
hard fork as "extra value as just created out of thin air and
delivered to existing investors for free."

So the term "hard fork," which is really an obscure technical term for
a software update, has taken on a magical, bewitching aura as
something that makes free money out of thin air. And there's a new
Bitcoin hard fork coming up soon, and these investors are looking
forward to it, because they're going to get more free money.

By the way, Bitcoin competitor Ethereum is implementing a hard fork
starting yesterday (Sunday), and investors are torn between hoping for
a free money bonanza, and a total disaster.

One more point: The fact that bitcoin uses the internet is both its
strength and its weakness. The internet is ubiquitous, making Bitcoin
a globally universal currency. But in a regional or global crisis, or
a war crisis, the internet is likely to be unavailable, making Bitcoin
worthless. Guardian (London) and Coindesk.com and CNBC


****
**** Stock market continues its huge bubble
****


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at 24.55 on October 13, indicating a huge stock market bubble (WSJ)

Bitcoin isn't the only investment that's in a huge bubble that could
implode at any time. There are $8 trillion globally in in corporate
and government bonds with negative yields, which means that you invest
$1,000, but only get $990 when you sell the bonds. In other words,
you don't earn money by investing -- you pay money to invest. But
people do it anyway, because they perceive these bonds to be safe
havens in which to store their money, and they're willing to pay a
price for that safety.

But low or negative interest rates on bonds means that the prices of
the bonds are astronomically high, so bonds are also in a huge bubble.
If the Fed and other central banks start raising interest rates, which
they say they're going to do, then the values of these bonds could
come crashing down.

Watching CNBC this week, I learned that stock traders are unhappy
because stock market volatility (measured by the VIX) has been
extremely low. Traders love the chaos of high volatility, with stock
prices jumping up and down, because they're good at making timed
trades and making money from them. But with the markets so quiet and
placid, traders are unable to make money.

Therefore, traders are hoping for a geopolitical crisis, like a North
Korea nuclear crisis or a major Mideast war, to increase volatility so
that they can make money.

Many people are crediting the large stock market rise of 19% as a
"Trump rally," but taking credit for a stock market rally is extremely
dangerous, since then you get the blame when the stock market falls.

According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations index)
on Friday morning (October 13) was at an astronomically high 24.55.
This is far above the historical average of 14, indicating that the
stock market bubble is still growing, and could burst at any time.
Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6
range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting
in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.

There's actually been a lot of debate and discussion recently on
whether a stock market crash is coming, much more discussion than I've
heard in the past. One person comes on and talks about price/earnings
ratios or other stock price measures to show that stocks are way
overpriced. Then a kid comes on, who seems barely old enough to
remember the financial crisis of 2008, and says that the American
economy is resilient, and there are no signs of an impending crash,
and no reason for one to occur at this time.

So I like to point out that no one has any idea why a stock market
panic occurred on the particular day October 28, 1928, and why it
didn't occur six months earlier or six months later. Even today,
economists and analysts cannot give a reason why that was the day.
Everyone understands that it had to occur because price/earnings
ratios were astronomically high (as they are today). But whether it
will occur tomorrow, next week, next month or next year is impossible
to predict and, as in 1929, we may not even know why it happened.
AP and Business Insider and Bloomberg

Related Articles

• Fed Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen says 'no financial crisis in our lifetimes' (02-Jul-2017)
  
  
• As foreclosures surge, people ask why mortgage lenders were so lax / Tulipomania (28-Mar-2007)
  
  
• Champagne corks pop as a 'Trump rally' sends Wall Street stocks parabolic (04-Mar-2017)
  
  
• Updating the 'real value' of the stock market (03-Aug-2010)
  
  
• A primer on financial engineering and structured finance (23-Jan-2008)

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Bitcoin, Ponzi scheme, Ethereum,
Holland, Tulipomania, blockchain, hard fork, VIX

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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 17-Oct-17 World View -- Devastating defeat to Iraq in Kirkuk exposes major splits between Kurdish factions

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Kurds flee Kirkuk after Iraq army defeats them in complete rout
  
• Devastating defeat to Iraq in Kirkuk exposes major splits between Kurdish factions
  

****
**** Kurds flee Kirkuk after Iraq army defeats them in complete rout
****


Children greet Iraqi soldiers as they enter the southern outskirts of Kirkuk on Monday (Reuters)

People in Erbil, the capital city of the Kurdistan Regional Government
(KRG), were shocked on Monday at the speed with which their supposedly
legendary Peshmerga militias defending Kirkuk collapsed at the
approach of Iraqi army forces and Shia militias, in what is seen as a
total rout.

For several days, Kurdish forces were locked in an armed standoff
Iraqi government troops and allied Iranian-backed paramilitaries known
as Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs) on the outskirts of the city.
Kurdish leaders were using the strongest rhetoric, saying that Kirkuk
would be defended to the last Peshmerga, and that if Iraqi forces
attack, they would be soundly defeated. So there's a lot of anger
today among the Kurds about how this rout could have occurred so
quickly, within about 15 hours.

The Kurds took control of Kirkuk in 2014, at a time when the country
Iraq seemed to be falling apart, because the so-called Islamic State
(IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) defeated the Iraqi army quickly and took
control of Mosul, making it ISIS headquarters in Iraq. ISIS also took
control of vast swaths of land, including many villages, but it was
Kurdish Peshmerga militias that prevented ISIS from taking control of
Kirkuk as well.

The Kurds might have been able to retain Kirkuk as part of the
regional KRG government, but Kurdish leaders decided to go further and
hold a non-binding referendum on September 25 on the question of
secession of an independent Kurdish state from Iraq. This referendum
went ahead despite almost universal international opposition, as the
United States, Turkey, Iran, and Iraq expressed concern that the
referendum would create unrealistic expectations and destabilize the
region. And that appears to be exactly what happened.

Once the referendum had passed, Iraq's prime minister Haider al-Abadi
said that he had no choice but to order military action to capture
Kirkuk and prevent a secession from taking place. The rapid advance
of the Iraqi forces resulted in quickly seizing control of the city's
airport, in addition to an oil field, the strategic K1 military base
and the Taza Khormatu district southeast of Kirkuk. A convoy of elite
Iraqi counter-terrorism unit forces took control of the governorate
building in central Kirkuk in the afternoon, meeting no resistance.
Iraqi forces also took control of the governor's office, which had
been left deserted.

Al-Abadi said in a statement:

<QUOTE>"It is my constitutional duty to work for the benefit
of the citizens, and to protect our national unity that came under
threat of fragmentation as a result of the referendum that was
organized by the Kurdish region.

The referendum came at a time where the country is fighting
against terrorism that has come in the form of ISIS. We tried to
urge (the Kurds) not to violate the constitution and to focus on
fighting ISIS, but they did not listen ... They chose their
personal interests over Iraq's interests."<END QUOTE>

By evening, there was an Iraqi victory parade in Kirkuk.

With the approach of the Iraqi forces, thousands of civilians fled
Kirkuk, and headed for Sulymaniyeh and Erbil in the Kurdish region.

However, other civilians were seen cheering on the Iraqi forces as
they entered Kirkuk's southern outskirts. That's because Kirkuk is a
multi-ethnic city, with a population of a million people, roughly 30%
Kurdish, 30% Arab, 30% Turkmen, and 10% Christian. Al Jazeera and Middle East Eye and Iraqi News

****
**** Devastating defeat to Iraq in Kirkuk exposes major splits between Kurdish factions
****

In an article that I wrote two weeks ago,
I compared three different independence movements that are
currently in the news -- -- in Catalonia from Spain, in the Anglophone
Southern Cameroons from Francophone Cameroon, and in Kurdistan from
Iraq. As I described, the Kurdistan case is substantially different
from the other two. In the other two, there is a resurgence of the
extremely vitriolic xenophobic attitudes that gave rise to previous
generational crisis wars, and civilians were targeted by government
forces. But we saw nothing like that between the Kurds and the Iraqis
in the case of the Kurdistan separatist movement in Iraq.

Monday's events modify that assessment. There was a military clash
between Iraqi and Kurdish forces, but it was quick and fizzled
quickly. There were no reported atrocities, rapes or mass slaughters
that are typical of clashes when vitriolic xenophobia is in play. In
particular, Monday's military clashes did not target civilians.

Instead, what emerged is a major split among the Kurds themselves.
There are two major factions in Kurdistan, the Kurdistan Democratic
Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), that were
formed in the decades following WW II. During Iraq's last
generational crisis war, the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, the KDP was
often aligned with Iran, and the KDP and the PUK fought each other.
The two parties have had several brief military clashes since then.

As political parties, the PUK and KDP are about evenly split in the
population. With Monday's overwhelming defeat in Kirkuk, we are
hearing vitriolic rhetoric in the form of the PUK and KDP accusing
each other of "betrayal," and calling each other "traitors."

On Monday, Masoud Barzani, president of the Kurdish Regional
Government (KRG) and KDP leader, posted a tweet accusing the PUK of
collaborating with Iran and with Iraq's Shia militias to defeat the
Kurds in Kirkuk.

It seems pretty likely that the hostility between the KDP and PUK is
going to grow following Monday's humiliating defeat in Kirkuk.
Al Jazeera and BBC

Related Articles

• Tensions between Turks and Iraqi Kurds grow as another ISIS stronghold falls (11-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Kirkuk becomes the flash point after the Iraqi Kurdistan independence referendum (03-Oct-2017)
  
  
• Israel may be the only country recognizing the Iraq Kurdistan referendum (27-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Concerns grow over chaos in Iraq after ISIS is defeated in Mosul (22-Mar-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Iraq, Kurdistan Regional Government, KRG,
Kirkuk, Sulymaniyeh, Peshmerga, Popular Mobilization Units, PMU,
Islamic State / of Iraq and Syria/Sham/the Levant, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Daesh,
Turkey, Iran, Masoud Barzani, Haider al-Abadi,
Kurdistan Democratic Party, KDP, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, PUK

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John J. Xenakis
100 Memorial Drive Apt 8-13A
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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
Subscribe to World View: http://generationaldynamics.com/subscribe

[John J. Xenakis]

*** 18-Oct-17 World View -- North Korea crisis: Would the United States sacrifice Los Angeles for Seoul?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• North Korea nuclear missile crisis close to reaching a tipping point
  
• North Korea crisis: Would the United States sacrifice Los Angeles for Seoul?
  

****
**** North Korea nuclear missile crisis close to reaching a tipping point
****


Gruesome North Korean propaganda painting claiming to depict American war crimes during Korean War (News Dog Media)

On Sunday, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said that "diplomatic
efforts will continue until the first bomb drops." When I first heard
I immediately thought that he was being intentionally ambiguous,
because he could easily have made it clearer whether he meant the
first North Korean bomb or the first American bomb.

Tillerson was responding to a question about whether President Trump's
tweets undermine him:

<QUOTE>"Well, I think what the President is doing is he is
trying to motivate action on a number of people's part in
particular the regime in North Korea. I think he does want to be
clear with Kim Jong-un and that regime in North Korea that he has
military preparations ready to go and has those military options
on the table and we have spent substantial time actually
perfecting those. But be clear, the President has also made clear
to me that he wants this solved diplomatically. He is not seeking
to go to war.

[Question: So he does think it is a waste of time?]

No, sir. He made it clear to me to continue my diplomatic efforts
which we are. And we will - as I told others the diplomatic
efforts will continue until the first bomb drops."<END QUOTE>

When we try to interpret what Tillerson and Trump mean by this we have
to understand that the United States has run out of time. As Nikki
Haley said last month, "We have kicked the can down the road long
enough. There is no more road left." This means that one US
administration after another have allowed North Korea to carry out
their threats to develop a ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead.

Most analysts believe that North Korea will "soon" have the ability to
target the United States mainland with a nuclear weapon equipped
ballistic missile, where "soon" could mean several weeks to several
months. Indeed, North Korean officials have repeatedly said that they
are working non-stop to develop this nuclear missile capability,
neither diplomacy nor sanction nor anything else will stop them. At
that point, the North Koreans are expected to do something
spectacular, like launch a nuclear missile to land in the Pacific
Ocean halfway to the US mainland.

This will be a clear tipping point in the North Korean crisis. The
North Koreans believe, possibly correctly, that once this point is
reached, then they will be able to use nuclear threats to make demands
of the US, South Korea, and Japan, such as demanding that all US
troops be withdrawn. The North Koreans would then continue
development, and would soon have an arsenal of ballistic missiles with
nuclear missiles targeting the US mainland. This will also presumably
make the Russians and the Chinese very happy as well.

Would the North Koreans actually carry out their nuclear threats? I
keep going back to 2010, when the North conducted two acts of war
targeting South Korea -- in May, North Korea torpedoed and sank the warship Cheonan,
killing dozens
of South Korean crew members, and in November, North Korea killed
South Korean civilians by shelling Yeonpyeong Island.
In both cases, the South Koreans chose not to
respond, but it's pretty clear that they might have.

The North Koreans carried out those two acts of war because they
correctly concluded that the South Koreans would not retaliate. Since
the beginning of his term, President Trump has repeatedly made clear,
through tweets and statements, that unlike the South Koreans in 2010,
we actually would retaliate, and forcefully. But after three decades
of empty threats by American administrations, the North Koreans may
quite reasonably conclude that Trump's tweets are simply another empty
threat.

And so we return to Tillerson's remark, and to the question: Why was
it so carefully and meticulously ambiguous as to whether "the first
bomb" would be dropped by the US or North Korea?

Will Trump and Tillerson permit North Korea get to the point where
they have an arsenal of nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles pointed at
the United States? These are two older men, Boomers, decisive, sharp
businessmen who now have to make the most important and critical
decisions of their lives. I certainly can't read their minds, but I
find it hard to believe that they would just sit back and let North
Korea develop a nuclear arsenal with impunity, and then have to lead a
humiliated United States a year from now. CNN and
AFP and Sputnik News (Moscow) and KCNA Watch (North Korea)

****
**** North Korea crisis: Would the United States sacrifice Los Angeles for Seoul?
****

As tensions over the North Korea crisis rise almost on a daily basis,
the above is the kind of question that a lot East Asians are asking
themselves. Will the United States allow North Korea to develop a
nuclear ballistic missile arsenal that would put Los Angeles at risk?
Or will the US strike North Korea's nuclear capabilities and save Los
Angeles, but risk a retaliatory North Korean attack on Seoul - or
Tokyo?

After World War II, the United States took on the role of Policeman of
the World, and in doing so, signed some sort of mutual defense treaty
with many countries: Japan, South Korea, Israel, Taiwan, the
Philippines, the Marshall Islands, the ANZUS agreement with Australia
and New Zealand, a special treaty with Iceland, and the NATO agreement
with all of Europe. The purpose was to discourage attacks on any of
these allies that would otherwise have the risk of spiraling into
World War III.

What we're seeing now is a kind of fatal flaw in the strategy
behind these mutual defense treaties. The idea was that the
United States would protect these countries, but today the
United States is more concerned about protecting itself.

And because of the mutual defense treaties, neither South Korea nor
Japan has a nuclear capability or nuclear deterrent, even though both
countries are threatened with nuclear attack from North Korea (not to
mention China), and even though they now feel unsure that they can
depend on the United States to protect them.

Development of a nuclear capability Japan is deeply unpopular because
of their experience in World War II. But according to Thomas Cynkin,
a former U.S. diplomat in Japan, the Japanese have developed a
"nuclear latency policy," which allows Japan to develop nuclear
weapons very quickly. Cynkin says the country is estimated to have “9
tons of plutonium, enough for over 1,000 warheads,” as well as an
advanced space industry, which provides easy access to ballistic
missile technology.

There is no such easy path to nuclear weapons development in South
Korea. Nuclear development is openly debated in South Korea, but
would infuriate the Chinese and draw retaliation. The Chinese were
infuriated by South Korea's deployment of the Terminal High Altitude
Area Defense (THAAD) missile system, which is purely defensive, and
China retaliated with a harsh economic boycott that's still in place.
Deployment of offensive nuclear weapons would dangerously provoke the
Chinese.

North Korea's last major test was a ballistic missile test that
occurred on September 14. The missile flew over Japan, landing in the
Pacific Ocean far enough to have put the American base on Guam within
range, raising international anxiety. It's been a whole month since
that test, so international anxieties have subsided. But all it would
take is another North Korean test of a nuclear bomb, or a long-range
ballistic missile, or the two combined, and international anxieties
will rise higher than ever, along with a new debate over
deploying nuclear weapons in Japan and South Korea.
The Diplomat and Washington Post and Cipher Brief and National Interest (5-Sep)

Related Articles

• US adopts strategic response to North Korea's threats to shoot down US warplanes (26-Sep-2017)
  
  
• Trump's North Korea sanctions stop short of military blockade (22-Sep-2017)
  
  
• North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War (06-Sep-2017)
  
  
• America's UN ambassador Nikki Haley says North Korea is 'begging for war' (05-Sep-2017)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Japan, South Korea,
Rex Tillerson, China, Thomas Cynkin,
Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, THAAD

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 19-Oct-17 World View -- Italy's deals with Libya's warlords substantially reduce flow of refugees

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Italy's deals with Libya's warlords substantially reduce flow of refugees
  
• Italy accused of turning a blind eye to atrocities received by refugees in detention centers
  

****
**** Italy's deals with Libya's warlords substantially reduce flow of refugees
****


Migrants from Libya's port of Sabratha are transported to detention centers by Italy's deal with warlords (Reuters)

A record 180,000 refugees crossed the Mediterranean from Libya to
Italy in 2016, and Italian officials had been expect that number to
increase in 2017. Instead, the number has fallen substantially,
thanks to a series of deals that Italy's government made with Libya's
tribes, warlords, and coast guard, even though the deals have been
widely condemned by humanitarian and human rights organizations.

The number of crossings in July 2017 was half what it was in July
2016, and in August, 20 per cent of what it was a year
earlier. Crossings were down from nearly 28,000 people in June to
below 10,000 in August.

The reduction in the flow of refugees is attributed to a series of
deals that Italy has made with various tribes and government officials
in Libya during June to cut off the migrant flow. Many of the deals
were with tribes along Libya's southern border, to prevent refugees
coming from West Africa from entering Libya from Chad, Mali and Niger.

The initiator of the agreement was Italy's interior minister Marco
Minniti. According to Minniti:

<QUOTE>"But my conviction was the southern border of Libya is
crucial for the southern border of Europe as a whole. So we have
built a relationship with the tribes of southern Sahara. They are
fundamental to the south, the guardians of the southern border,
but they had been fighting one another and that meant the southern
border was not controlled.

On 31 March the tribes came to my office here in Rome. It was a
very difficult discussion; 72 hours were needed to to try to find
a solution and to build a peace that respected their
independence. All this was very complicated, more complicated than
you can imagine, but they were looking for a solution. My
conviction is that at a certain point [when] these conflicts
become unsustainable the important thing is to be ready when
someone is looking for a solution."<END QUOTE>

That wasn't all. Minniti also made deals with the mayors of 14 cities
in Libya:

<QUOTE>"We discussed a pact. It was quite simple: engage
yourself against the trafficking of human beings and we will help
you to build an alternative economy. The problems at the moment is
trafficking has been the only industry in Libya capable of
producing an income revenue."<END QUOTE>

What was the alternative economy? The tribal militias in these cities
had only one major source of income -- to become human traffickers and
collect money from refugees to put them on boats, push the boats out
into the Mediterranean, and hope that they'll be rescued by NGOs. In
many cases, Italy has accused NGOs of being in telephone contact with
these human trafficking militias, and paying off the militias to let
them know when refugee boats were pushed out into the sea.

So Minniti offered to provide aid to these mayors to replace the funds
received from human trafficking. According to Minniti:

<QUOTE>"When I met a sultan of the tribes he said: ‘You have
to help me so that my children so that can lead a different life
from trafficking.’ We have taken these projects to the European
commission. These people want to change and it is the duty of the
international community to help in this
reconversion."<END QUOTE>

In return for the aid, the militias are responsible for detaining the
migrants and keeping them in refugee camps.

In August, Rome also signed deals with the Libyan coastguard to help
it deal with people smuggling, and to permit Italy to perform naval
operations in Libyan waters.

These deals are considered to be morally questionable, but their
effect has been dramatic, in cutting the refugee flow to Italy and the
number of drownings in the Mediterranean Sea substantially.

Italy's prime minister Paolo Gentiloni bragged about the results on
Wednesday:

<QUOTE>"Italy is proud to be a good example on the issue of
migrants. We have reduced the number of people dying at sea and
the number of irregular-migrant arrivals."<END QUOTE>

Gentiloni said that Italy was a model for Europe on how to reduce
migrant arrivals. Reuters and Irish Times and Guardian (London)

****
**** Italy accused of turning a blind eye to atrocities received by refugees in detention centers
****

The deals that Italy's government has signed with Libya's warlords,
tribes, militias and coast guard have dramatically reduced the flow of
refugees, but Italy is being accused of turning a blind eye to the
abuse that refugees receive in "concentration camps," where they have
been left hungry, brutalized, raped and tortured.

U.N. agencies have said that Italy's policies had trapped tens of
thousands of people in dire conditions in Libya. This is particularly
true in Libya's port of Sabratha, which Libyan human smugglers have
long used as an operations base and a main port for their boats
heading across the Mediterranean Sea. Last week, 4,000 migrants were
found, trapped in various locations around the city, often starving.

Commissioner Nils Muiznieks of the Council of Europe Human Rights
wrote to Italy's interior minister Marco Minniti, all but accusing
Italy of violating human rights laws:

<QUOTE>"The case law of the European Court of Human Rights is
clear about this duty and I think it bears relevance for Italy’s
operations in Libyan territorial waters. In light of recent
reports on the current human rights situation of migrants in
Libya, handing individuals over to the Libyan authorities or other
groups in Libya would expose them to a real risk of torture or
inhuman or degrading treatment or punishment, ... [violating]
Article 3 of the European Convention on Human Rights.

Finally, the Commissioner requests information about the measures
to ensure that search and rescue operations in the Mediterranean,
including those conducted by non-governmental actors, can continue
to be carried out effectively and in safety."<END QUOTE>

Muiznieks added, "The fact that such actions would be carried out in
Libyan territorial waters does not absolve Italy from its obligations
under the convention."

In fact, based on news reports, the evidence is that Minniti has taken
no steps at all to prevent refugees from being exposed to atrocities.
According to the deals, the Libyan warlords and militias detain the
refugees, do not allow them to proceed to Europe, but instead lock
them up in detention centers where any form of abuse can be performed
on them with impunity. Deutsche Welle and Council of Europe-Commission of Human Rights and Deutsche Welle and BBC

Related Articles

• EU countries refuse to help Italy deal with massive refugee crisis (16-Jul-2017)
  
  
• Italy begs for help after 12,000 migrants arrive in four days (30-Jun-2017)
  
  
• Italy prepares for possible Mediterranean refugee crisis this summer (05-May-2017)
  
  
• EU migrant crisis moves to Italy as Austria begins closing border (13-Apr-2016)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Italy, Libya, Sabratha,
Mediterranean Sea, Chad, Mali, Niger,
Marco Minniti, Paolo Gentiloni,
Nils Muiznieks, Council of Europe Human Rights

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Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.gdxforum.com/forum
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[John J. Xenakis]

*** 20-Oct-17 World View -- Economists baffled on 30th anniversary of 1987 stock market panic

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

• Mainstream economists baffled about stock market panic of October 19, 1987
  
• The 58 Year Hypothesis: False panics of 1914 and 1987
  
• Examples of the 58 Year Hypothesis: Swine Flu, Iraq War, Israel-Hezbollah war
  

****
**** Mainstream economists baffled about stock market panic of October 19, 1987
****


The Philadelphia Inquirer on October 20, 1987, after Black Monday

They're calling Monday, October 19, 1987, the "worst day in stock
market history," it fell 22% in one day (equivalent to a fall of 5000
points today). Analysts and economists were on television all day on
Thursday telling sad stories about how shocked they were on that day,
but they were completely baffled about why it happened.

The development of generational theory and Generational Dynamics has
revealed numerous important historical patterns generated by the
regular changes in generations.

One of the most significant discoveries in the development of
generational theory is an explanation of the stock market crash of
Monday, October 19, 1987 -- why it occurred at all, why it occurred in
1987 rather than, say, in 1980 or 1990, and why the stock market
recovered so quickly.

Here are some Thursday media excerpts offering explanations:

• "What was to blame? Heightened hostilities in the Persian
  Gulf, fear of higher interest rates, a five-year bull market without a
  significant correction, and computerized trading that accelerated the
  selling and fed the frenzy among the human traders."
  
  
• Some blamed increasingly computerized trading for a wave of early
  sales that triggered panic among institutional investors. Others cited
  House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Dan Rostenkowski’s interest in
  market-punishing tax hikes. Still others pointed to global tensions
  that sparked fear of a conventional U.S. war in the Middle East and/or
  a trade war with West Germany. ... Journalist Tim Metz offered a more
  provocative theory: ... He suggests that government regulators,
  exchange officials and the “market makers” who sustain trading are
  parties to a huge — and, until now, undetected — market manipulation
  scheme."
  
  
• One of the principal causes of the crash was "portfolio
  insurance," which sought to protect investors by selling during market
  tumult. However, the computers kept selling and never stopped on
  Black Monday until some leading market participants ... stepped in as
  buyers to help stop the bleeding."

Jeff Cox of CNBC claims that, unlike today, "the 1987 [stock market]
was stratospheric, doubling in about two years." This is the kind of
nonsense you see from analysts who have no clue what's going on. In
1987, the S&P 500 price/earnings ratio index was 14, which means that
stocks were fairly priced at the historic average. Today, the P/E
ratio is 25, indicating that stocks are in a huge bubble.

If you want to figure out why the "the worst day in stock market
history" occurred in 1987, then you have to ask what was unique about
1987 that made it different from 1980, 1985, 1990 or 1995?

If you look at the proposed explanations listed above, they explain
nothing. Let's take one example: global tensions, and fear of a
Mideast war. Well, just a few years earlier we had had the Iran
hostage crisis in 1979, and the deaths of 300 American and French
troops in the 1983 bombing of the Beirut, Lebanon, barracks by
Hezbollah. If global tensions caused the panic in 1987, why didn't
they cause a panic in those earlier years?

None of the other proposals explains why 1987 was a special year, as
opposed to all the others.

But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what made 1987 a
special year, different from all the others, was that it was 58 years
after the crash of 1929. This leads us to one of the most interesting
discoveries of generational theory -- the "58 Year Hypothesis."
CNN and San Diego Union Tribune and CNBC and Market Watch

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****
**** The 58 Year Hypothesis: False panics of 1914 and 1987
****

So why did all the senior managers of financial firms panic on October
19, 1987, and join the stock market selloff that caused the market to
fall 22% in one day?

If we assume that all of these senior managers were roughly 63-68
years old in 1987, they would have been 5-10 years old in 1929.

Now imagine that you're a 5-10 year old child in 1929, leading a happy
life with parents who have plenty of money because they had taken
advantage of the stock market bubble in the 1920s. Now imagine that,
one day, your parents lose everything. Your whole life is turned
upside down, and suddenly your family is living under a bridge and
depending on soup kitchens to survive. This is something that
traumatizes you and affects your entire life.

And here's the important part: It's not just you. It's every child
your age. As you and your age cohort grow older, you share this
common memory of the 1929 catastrophe -- something that younger
children and younger people have no personal memory of.

So now move forward to 1987, and you're 63-68 years old, and something
happens in the stock market that frightens you. It could be almost
anything. You talk it over with your other 63-68 year old exec
friends, and you realize that you all recognize the danger, but that
managers younger than you have no idea, because they didn't live
through it before. So you all tell younger people that you think
there's going to be a repeat of the 1929 crash, causing a panic. But
it's a false panic, because stocks are fairly priced, not in a huge
bubble as in 1929.

This isn't the first time this has happened. In 1914, there was a
similar false panic, occurring 57 years after the stock market crash
of 1857. And, once again, the market recovered quickly from the
panic, because stocks were fairly priced.

The 1914 panic had an enormous impact on investors because it ended so
quickly, and kept investors from understanding the impact of the 1929
stock market crash. John Kenneth Galbraith's 1954 book The Great
Crash - 1929, explained how the brief 1907 and 1914 panics
contributed to the 1929 disaster:

<QUOTE>"A common feature of all these earlier troubles
[previous panics] was that having happened they were over. The
worst was reasonably recognizable as such. The singular feature
of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to
worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to
have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more
ingeniously designed to maximize the suffering, and also to insure
that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune.

The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin
call presently got another and equally urgent one, and if he met
that there would still be another. In the end all the money he
had was extracted from him and lost. The man with the smart
money, who was safely out of the market when the first crash came,
naturally went back in to pick up bargains. ... The bargains then
suffered a ruinous fall. Even the man who waited out all of
October and all of November, who saw the volume of trading return
to normal and saw Wall Street become as placid as a produce
market, and who then bought common stocks would see their value
drop to a third or fourth of the purchase price in the next
twenty-four months. ... The ruthlessness of [the stock market was]
remarkable." (p. 108-109)<END QUOTE>

This analysis by Galbraith is the basis for what I call the Principle
of Maximum Ruin: That a real financial crisis will ruin the maximum
number of people to the maximum extent possible. The commonly heard
phrase "buy the dip" describes what happens. Since investors don't
believe that a real stock market crash is possible, they buy more
stocks whenever prices dip. So they keep losing money until they lose
everything. This is what happened in 1929, and it's what will happen
in the coming panic and financial crisis.

****
**** Examples of the 58 Year Hypothesis: Swine Flu, Iraq War, Israel-Hezbollah war
****

I formulated the 58 Year Hypothesis over ten years ago when I
accidentally noticed what seemed to be a remarkable coincidence.

I'm now referring to the "swine flu" panic of 1976. The public became
hysterical over the possibility of a new flu pandemic that could kill
millions of people, repeating the catastrophe of the Spanish Flu
epidemic of 1918. Responding to public demands, the government
prepared millions of doses of swine flu vaccine. President Gerald
R. Ford authorized a mass inoculation program, and 45 million
Americans -- more than 20 percent of the population -- were
vaccinated. The whole thing was a fiasco because there was no
epidemic, and because hundreds of people died from a negative reaction
to the vaccinations.

The swine flu panic of 1976 was a false panic that occurred exactly 58
years after the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918. Once again, the 58 Year
Hypothesis explains why the year 1976 was unique. There was no
similar flu panic in 1960, 1965, or 1970. It occurred in 1976 because
it was 58 years after the Spanish Flu epidemic, and 5-10 year old
children who had lost their parents and friends in 1918 panicked in
1976, when they were 63-68 years old, fearing that it would happen
again.

Once I identified this "coincidence," I began looking for other
possible examples, and it turns out that the 58 year time span occurs
rather frequently in generational theory. It seems that when an
entire society is traumatized by an unexpected event that was
foreseeable but not foreseen, then there is a panic 58 years later
that the event will happen again.

The Iraq ground war of 2003 is considered a mistake today, but in 2003
it was extremely populated because the entire country was anxious over
Saddam Hussein's development and use of chemical weapons. It occurred
58 years after the use of nuclear weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in
1945. Why was the year 2003 unique? Saddam had been developing and
using WMD's for 20 years, and there was no panic. But 2003 was unique
because it was 58 years after 1945.

In 2006, Hezbollah abducted two Israeli soldiers near the Lebanon
border. Israel went into a state of total panic, and launched the war
in Lebanon within four hours, with no plan and no objectives. The war
was a total disaster for Israel. There had been other prior
confrontations with Hezbollah and Palestinian terrorists prior to
2006. What made 2006 special? It occurred 58 years after the
genocidal war between Jews and Arabs in Palestine in 1948.

There's still plenty of research to be done on the 58 Year Hypothesis
to determine exactly why it happens, what types of events trigger it,
and what are other examples. But returning now to the false panic of
1987, go back and read the moronic explanations by mainstream
economists and analysts, and you'll see that the 58 Year Hypothesis is
the only one that actually makes sense. Jerusalem Post (30-Apr-2007) and LA Times (27-Apr-2009)

Related Articles

• The Iraq war may be related to the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. (17-Feb-2008)
  
  
• "How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hizbollah."
  
  
• Israeli government in crisis after report on war with Hezbollah (04-May-2007)
  

KEYS: Generational Dynamics, Panic of 1987, Dan Rostenkowski,
Tim Metz, Jeff Cox, 58 Year Hypothesis, John Kenneth Galbraith,
Gerald Ford, Swine flu, Spanish Flu, Israel Hezbollah war, Iraq war

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John J. Xenakis
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