The Coronavirus

[pbrower2a]

Medical research is as different from magic (stage magic is a different thing) but it certainly can get results far more useful for far more people. Clinical trials take time (there will be plenty of people to take the clinical trials this time because COVID-19 has been running wild in penal institutions).

This said, medical research is extremely cautious in promising cures or vaccines, not saying that such have happened until they have happened. But with whom do you have any meaningful hope?

I did get a pneumonia shot out of fear of COVID-19. Pneumonia is a complication.

[pbrower2a]

(05-06-2020, 08:04 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 02:08 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: My values must be more practical/realistic than your values. Reds  view death as part of life and reds aren't as afraid of death and accept it better than  blues. I assume that economics are no longer a reality/concern for most blues these days which makes sense for a have-have not culture/banana republic. I don't care if you and others spend the next year hunkered down and protecting yourselves  from certain death/COVID19. Minnesota has set a goal of 20,000 tests per day which is about a month of testing if they intend to test everyone who lives in the state. I'm curious to see if I already had it because if I have then it was already here in early January. I had a weird cold in early January along with several other people that I know personally.

I don’t know that ‘practical’ is the right word.  R0 is just low for you, and you don’t care that it is much higher for others, or that you are forcing others to roll the dice with their lives.  For you it is about me me me.  Others can drop dead.

Then too are the values involved.  The unraveling is a time of selfishness.  Solving the problem at the core of the crisis involves working together for the sake of the community.  Some are just locked in the unraveling mode.

...Indeed (really more to Classic X'er than to Bob Butler), we must be willing to scrap some long-cherished values (let alone prejudice) when we find that those values cause great harm. It can be a conflict of values, with one value (in my case law and order) overpowering my long-held contempt for homosexuality. When someone proved to me with a threat of serious physical harm to me out of a perception that I was a homosexual I decided then and there that full legal equality for homosexuality would make life safer even for straight people. Identity? Likewise. 

We have made great sacrifices in the past to stave off a shared danger, including the greatest nightmare in American history: a victory of the Axis Powers. I have seen predictions from four-digit predictions of deaths from COVID-19 (now a daily toll) to millions (if every American gets it). With the 5% death rate that I have seen (deaths to total cases), and the knowledge that such deaths do not even include the shortening of expected lifespans among survivors, I could imagine worse. Far worse. See also rheumatic fever that causes heart damage that shortens lives. 

(now more to Bob Butler) Bad habits that become commonplace even among people who should know better in a 3T precipitate the sheer nastiness of a Crisis Era. Maybe society can get away with the common man indulging in self-destructive practices because the common man typically hurts himself and his loved ones alone. So it is with proletarian types who deny science and history, or adopt cranky political ideologies. The personal heartbreak and ruin that one gets is obviously limited in scope if proles having little influence bear the brunt on small scales. When the elites do such things and impose their will that others do much the same or at least influence the proles do so on a mass scale, then the damage is far greater. Ideally any elite status or position comes, in a wholesome order, more responsibility for those with the privileges that society gives them out of necessity. Just consider that although life is better in many ways for an officer than for an enlisted soldier in any branch of the Armed Services, the officers are not allowed to get away with such things as defaulting on gambling debts, going bankrupt, or having extramarital affairs. 

So it is rightly with such professionals as certified public accountants, engineers, architects, physicians, attorneys, veterinarians, and even such people who might not quite be considered high-level professionals as cops, stockbrokers, insurance salespeople, real estate brokers, and teachers. OK, a cost accountant in Chicago might have the discretion to use a company car to go to Fort Wayne as needed to determine that proper accounting procedures are being done in Fort Wayne if something is suspect. Someone on an assembly line in Chicago might be obliged to wear a diaper rather than take bathroom breaks. If that assembly-line worker takes the company car to see his aunt in Fort Wayne he will be fired and likely prosecuted for grand theft auto. Some people have more discretion than others, which is to be expected. 

In a 3T the Establishment often finds that it can get away with behavior that will ultimately hurt others (like speculating with other people's money) while taking the gains and insulating themselves from the personal risk. They may support politicians who lie, cheat, and steal because those politicians make the profiteering of the elites (which may involve lying, cheating, and stealing) far easier and more rewarding.  Ponzi schemes and pyramid games flourish toward the end of a 3T only to collapse as happened with Bernie Madoff. 

Economic calamities happen on a large scale as the reality of bubbles, large-scale embezzlement and corruption, and trickle-down ideology prove catastrophic. Bad times bring out the worst in politics in some places, and that worst can make things even worse by enforcing elite privilege or starting the persecution of scapegoats. 

We are fortunate in a way that the Trump Administration has been as incompetent as it has been. Trump has a despotic personality, yet he failed to suppress his opposition before purging his own Party. Contrast Hitler, who successfully suppressed the German Left before acting as a despot. A real American dictatorship would have probably dispatched me fast had I not emigrated fast enough. I would be in Argentina, perhaps, and I would be doing my blogging in Spanish and using a fake name. "Cervecero" would be too obvious, would it not? I of course hope that we get through this Crisis with our constitutional protections solidified instead of weakened and that Americans have learned some good habits.

1. We need again to become a nation of savers.
2. We need disabuse ourselves of the idea that conspicuous spending is evidence of real wealth.
3. We need to make rational thought a habit along all vocational groupings.
4. We need discredit cranks, demagogues, hucksters, sadists, and poseurs.
5. We need more, and not less, social inequality for the sake of the children, at the least.
6. We need recognize the necessity of precedent, protocol, and integrity even when such are inconvenient.
7. We need attach responsibility to every manifestation of administrative, intellectual, and even economic privilege.
8. We need shore up family and community as cells of patriotic loyalty.

Maybe you can think of more.

[pbrower2a]

Dated, but relevant.


Texas Woman Who Claimed COVID-19 Was ‘Media Driven’ Hoax Dies From Virus
 APRIL 5, 2020 BY MICHAEL STONE

  1172 COMMENTS








“MAGA”: Karen Kolb Sehlke, a Trump-loving woman from Texas is dead from COVID-19 after claiming the virus was a “media driven” hoax.
In a sad, cautionary tale of willful ignorance and hubris, Karen Kolb Sehlke is dead from COVID-19 after claiming the virus was a “media driven” hoax “controlled by the radical people in powerful places.”
In a long-winded Facebook rant Sehlke claimed that “our government is under attack from within” while comparing the coronavirus to “the impeachment hoax” and arguing that those who take the current pandemic seriously “panic like sheep.”
Sehlke wrote in part:

Quote:Wake up!!! This is what the beginning of socialism looks like! 
…
They are leading with fear causing you to panic like sheep.
… You don’t need hand sanitizer, toilet paper, and Lysol. You need common sense, a sense of direction, faith, a will to fight, and of course guns!
Now wash your hands and live the life they don’t want you to have!

Sehlke posted the rant on March 14th. She died on April 2nd, killed by the virus she mocked.
Sad!
The following is a sample of reactions via Twitter:

Quote:[/url]Sunn m'Cheaux@sunnmcheaux




March 14th: *posted COVID-19 hoax, anti-socialism rant on FB*

April 2nd: *died of COVID-19, family asking for GoFundMe donations*

I post this not to mock Karen Kolb Sehlke's death, but to underscore the tragic risk one takes when taking this pandemic for granted. #RIP #StaySafe



4,880
3:34 AM - Apr 4, 2020
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2,989 people are talking about this

Quote:
Sunn m'Cheaux@sunnmcheaux

 · Apr 4, 2020


Replying to @sunnmcheaux
For skeptics who asked for further proof this isn't a hoax, I get it. It's just too on-the-nose that a Trump supporter named "Karen" died of the "liberal hoax" she dismissed in a FB post days earlier. It speaks volumes that it's so unbelievable, yet real. https://lailasnews.com/international/karen-sehlke-death-dead-cause-of-death-karen-sehlke-obituary-funeral/ …

Karen Sehlke death - dead, cause of death: Karen Sehlke obituary, funeral
Karen Sehlke death - dead, cause of death, obituary, funeral plans: News about beloved Karen Sehlke death has been announced. Please say a prayer for the
lailasnews.com

Quote:Sunn m'Cheaux@sunnmcheaux


What's troubling about the way reports of Karen's COVID-19 death are being handled by family & friends is their censorship, the deception. Though it was initially stated on their Gofundme the cause of death was COVID-19, it's been deleted & now reported as cause of death unknown:



1,015
4:23 PM - Apr 4, 2020
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298 people are talking about this

Quote:??????? ???????@MelissaMermaid




"You don't need hand sanitizer, toilet paper, and Lysol. You need common sense, a sense of direction, faith, a will to fight, and of course guns!" - Karen Kolb Sehlke

They've started a gofundme for a serial killer who died from her own ignorance!
https://www.gofundme.com/f/khucq-help-the-sehlke-family …

Help the Sehlke Family organized by Shelly Wahle
With deep sadness and Broken Hearts we share with you that Karen Kolb Sehlke, a loving wife, mothe… Shelly Wahle needs your support for Help the Sehlke Family
gofundme.com


143
2:40 PM - Apr 4, 2020
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69 people are talking about this

Quote:Jill@JillDeming1




Karen Kolb Sehlke of Tomball, TX died April 2nd after testing positive for COVID-19. This was the last thing she posted on her Facebook page. #COVID2019 #FoxNewsLiedAsPeopleDied #SlowtheSpreadTexas



1,316
1:41 PM - Apr 4, 2020
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774 people are talking about this

Quote:The Social Gadfly@MarcCal78558344




The ultimate “Karen”. Died of COVID-19 related issues after ranting how it was a hoax, and choosing to cling to her guns, God and Trump. Another tragic, gun-related death that could have been avoided. #KarenKolbSehlke

87
12:19 PM - Apr 5, 2020
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16 people are talking about this

[url=https://twitter.com/MarcCal78558344/status/1246834954614390786]



Bottom line:  A Trump-loving woman from Texas is dead from COVID-19 after claiming the virus was a “media driven” hoax.
Texas Woman Who Claimed COVID-19 Was ‘Media Driven’ Hoax Dies From Virus (Image via Facebook)

[Classic-Xer]

(05-06-2020, 09:21 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: If you wondered how I estimated a death rate I divided deaths into total cases. Can the death rate change? Sure, but beware of the cytokine storms that may have killed so many apparently-healthy young people in the influenza pandemic of a century ago. 

I thought so. The total cases at the moment doesn't reflect the total amount of people who have had/ been treated for COVID19 so far. Once testing comes on line, the total cases will most likely rise substantially so don't freak out when it happens.

[Classic-Xer]

(05-06-2020, 06:04 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 03:19 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Show me the (expletive deleted) numbers...

How do you do that when the administration is blocking the tests?

Why would he be blocking the tests, it's not in his interest to block the tests? You better double check your information again because that doesn't make any sense.

[Classic-Xer]

(05-06-2020, 02:23 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: You guys, financed by right-wingers like Betsy DeVoss, are the ones whipping up hysteria on the grounds that the measures needed to protect ourselves from this virus are curtailing our freedom. It is you guys, led by the Liar in Chief, the fake president, who are whipping this hysteria up so that this tyrant can get himself re-elected because the economy is rebounding. Failing that, he will use you guys, with guns in hand, to carry out a coup attempt on Jan.20, 2021.

I'm not financed by anyone. Dude, the Democrats are the ones whipping up hysteria to gain power. See, the truth comes out of your mouth every now and then without you knowing it. It's not in your interest to have a economic rebound and things getting back to normal come fall. You don't think we know that and understand what the liberals are up to? As I mentioned before, I don't live in Minneapolis or St Paul and I'm not reliant upon either of them. What will we do when they're broke and there's a bunch of rioting. We'll arm up which will be new and then go around them like we usually do. Like I've said, the Democratic governors better start showing the American voters that they care about them and get the lead out.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-06-2020, 09:13 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 06:04 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 03:19 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Show me the (expletive deleted) numbers...

How do you do that when the administration is blocking the tests?

Why would he be blocking the tests, it's not in his interest to block the tests? You better double check your information again because that  doesn't make any sense.

The more tests you perform, the more people you find who are infected.  Trump cares little for how effective he is at fighting the disease, but cares a lot about how well he is perceived of as fighting the disease.  In his mind, that is best done with fewer tests, thus fewer reported cases.

The doctors have a different perspective, of course.  They want to see who has the bug and isolate them, but you can't do that without tests.  Trump has not used the Defense Procurement Act to declare tests and test equipment critical.  That means few tests.  Making Trump look better is the only plausible motive anyone has come up with, but as you say it makes no sense.  He is making it harder to fight the disease, which is only making him look worse.

I don’t feel a lot of need to check it as Rachel has been hammering that point home every night. (Covering the virus full time every weeknight leaves her repeating herself a lot.)  It is old news if you keep up with the coastal media.  I'm vaguely amazed you have kept yourself from hearing it.

[Ragnarök_62]

(05-06-2020, 09:13 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 06:04 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 03:19 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Show me the (expletive deleted) numbers...

How do you do that when the administration is blocking the tests?

Why would he be blocking the tests, it's not in his interest to block the tests? You better double check your information again because that  doesn't make any sense.

Essentially, because if there was a big number of infections, it would have made Mr. Market have a sad (which happened anyway), which would in turn among other things, screw up his reelection chances.

See link here.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/03/...on-chances.

Yup, it's mindblowing man.  The CoranaComet crossed the sky with forebodings of karmic catastrophe.   If one reflects and meditates it comes so very clear.  Neoliberal globalism with it's long fragile supply chains, lots of folks travailing worldwide is the perfect petri dish for some lucky pathogen. Then here in the US, it stripped us of the ability to have the medical equipment, stripped the public sector, and left us with Trump.  Like I always say,  Trump is the symptom of the disease of Neoliberalism.  So here are right now, where "reopening"  = 2nd monster corona virus infection rate". 

PS
Woo-woo is for real, I like had this weird thingie happen in Dec.. I was walking to feed the dogs, and something made me freeze, and a thought hit my head. "Something big is coming in the next 2 months..."  I didn't know what "big" was. So now I do.  Better get ready, all, it's a bad moon risin'g.  That's how I sorta feel.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-06-2020, 09:00 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 09:21 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: If you wondered how I estimated a death rate I divided deaths into total cases. Can the death rate change? Sure, but beware of the cytokine storms that may have killed so many apparently-healthy young people in the influenza pandemic of a century ago. 

I thought so. The total cases at the moment doesn't reflect the total amount of people who have had/ been treated for COVID19 so far. Once testing comes on line, the total cases will most likely rise substantially so don't freak out when it happens.

I think he is freaking out in anticipation of it happening.  The artificially low case count due to the White House suppression of testing is well known in the coastal media.

[Classic-Xer]

(05-06-2020, 09:43 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 09:13 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 06:04 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 03:19 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Show me the (expletive deleted) numbers...

How do you do that when the administration is blocking the tests?

Why would he be blocking the tests, it's not in his interest to block the tests? You better double check your information again because that  doesn't make any sense.

The more tests you perform, the more people you find who are infected.  Trump cares little for how effective he is at fighting the disease, but cares a lot about how well he is perceived of as fighting the disease.  In his mind, that is best done with fewer tests, thus fewer reported cases.

The doctors have a different perspective, of course.  They want to see who has the bug and isolate them, but you can't do that without tests.  Trump has not used the Defense Procurement Act to declare tests and test equipment critical.  That means few tests.  Making Trump look better is the only plausible motive anyone has come up with, but as you say it makes no sense.  He is making it harder to fight the disease, which is only making him look worse.

I don’t feel a lot of need to check it as Rachel has been hammering that point home every night.  It is old news if you keep up with the coastal media.  I'm vaguely amazed you have keep yourself from hearing it.

Really? You think more testing that proves that we can start getting back to normal for the most part isn't in his interest. The issue with the lack of testing is that we don't manufacture stuff as much as we should in this country and we don't have issues with pandemics that often either. Now, I could blame the governor of New York pissing away billions on everything else than what the state needed to combat a pandemic and save lives. I could call him a murderer for forcing nursing homes to deal with COVID19 patients to prevent overloading the healthcare system. I could but I won't bother because it helps no one to do it at this point. I don't believe what the state run coastal media has to say about anything these days. You're hooked bit I'm not. Well, while she does her job and you watch as she's doing her job, I'm going to watch Fox and see what all the REAL experts have to say about what's going on these days.

[Classic-Xer]

(05-06-2020, 09:59 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 09:00 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 09:21 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: If you wondered how I estimated a death rate I divided deaths into total cases. Can the death rate change? Sure, but beware of the cytokine storms that may have killed so many apparently-healthy young people in the influenza pandemic of a century ago. 

I thought so. The total cases at the moment doesn't reflect the total amount of people who have had/ been treated for COVID19 so far. Once testing comes on line, the total cases will most likely rise substantially so don't freak out when it happens.

I think he is freaking out in anticipation of it happening.  The artificially low case count due to the White House suppression of testing is well known in the coastal media.

The coastal media seems to be falling behind the rest of the country right now.

[Classic-Xer]

(05-06-2020, 09:59 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 09:00 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 09:21 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: If you wondered how I estimated a death rate I divided deaths into total cases. Can the death rate change? Sure, but beware of the cytokine storms that may have killed so many apparently-healthy young people in the influenza pandemic of a century ago. 

I thought so. The total cases at the moment doesn't reflect the total amount of people who have had/ been treated for COVID19 so far. Once testing comes on line, the total cases will most likely rise substantially so don't freak out when it happens.

I think he is freaking out in anticipation of it happening.  The artificially low case count due to the White House suppression of testing is well known in the coastal media.

He will remain self quarantined and be fine. Me, I've got some jobs to do so I'll be leaving again next week.

[Warren Dew]

(05-06-2020, 10:50 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 09:15 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 06:29 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: People who have already had it, who have an immunity

There's no actual indication that already having it gives one immunity.  That does not happen to any significant extent for that other coronavirus caused disease, the common cold.

The myriad viruses that cause the Common Cold are unstable, so vaccination is clearly impossible. This virus seems to follow a different, more stable paradigm. Note: if immunity from having the disease is nonexistent, then a successful vaccine seems unlikely.

How is this virus "more stable"?  Just because it doesn't have as many strains yet?

If there's no prolonged immunity, you're right, there's unlikely to be a successful vaccine.  Then we get to have repeated outbreaks each winter, with associated mitigations or deaths.

Incidentally, this going on for several years might actually make Covid-19 the climax of the Crisis, which I doubt it can otherwise be.

[Eric the Green]

(05-06-2020, 09:41 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 02:23 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: You guys, financed by right-wingers like Betsy DeVoss, are the ones whipping up hysteria on the grounds that the measures needed to protect ourselves from this virus are curtailing our freedom. It is you guys, led by the Liar in Chief, the fake president, who are whipping this hysteria up so that this tyrant can get himself re-elected because the economy is rebounding. Failing that, he will use you guys, with guns in hand, to carry out a coup attempt on Jan.20, 2021.

I'm not financed by anyone. Dude, the Democrats are the ones whipping up hysteria to gain power. See, the truth comes out of your mouth every now and then without you knowing it. It's not in your interest to have a economic rebound and things getting back to normal come fall. You don't think we know that and understand what the liberals are up to? As I mentioned before, I don't live in Minneapolis or St Paul and I'm not reliant upon either of them. What will we do when they're broke and there's a bunch of rioting. We'll arm up which will be new and then  go around them like we usually do. Like I've said, the Democratic governors better start showing the American voters that they care about them and get the lead out.

To the extent that you join with these ridiculous, gun totin' protesters shouting "freedom" to oppose the precautions and shutdowns to address the virus, you are being financed by Betsy and other right-wingers. You are rallying with them, even if only in writing, and you can do that thanks to the right-wing oligarchs who finance right-wing rebellions. They are the ones whipping up hysteria, because THAT is who are hysterical right now.

Liberals would like to see Trump gone, true. But it's our belief that Trump's policies are causing the virus to explode and persist. Trump's attempts to open the economy too soon will backfire, causing cases and deaths to rise again, and that means the economy will not recover in time for the election. Trump is digging his own grave the more he refuses to provide national testing and tracking. We liberals don't want people to die because of a fake president. 

The Democratic governors are the ones doing the work, but they don't have the financial freedom to create money. Only the feds can do that. So governors, including responsible Republican ones, can only do so much. Their approval ratings are skyrocking while Trump's are stuck at 44%. Trump is putting the burden upon the governors at his own possible expense for November. We would rather that he take proper actions, but he doesn't seem capable of this. He has stopped the aid that was voted by congress unanimously from going to the small businesses that need it.

There are silver linings to the virus. Perhaps more attention will come to the dangers and ethical wrongs of live animal markets, which we have in the USA too, and they will be shut down; along with increased concern for the environment and animals rights generally. Pollution and CO2 are decreasing. There's less traffic on the streets, and more people are out jogging while they work at home. "We're all in this together" is heard everywhere, helping Americans to re-learn this truth which is basic to the Democratic Party and to a healthy functioning nation, but which has been forgotten since Reagan. And stress is being put on Trump, which he can never handle well. All he can do is stir up divisions and put out false optimism. So, perhaps that will end up as a silver lining too, because nothing would be better for the health and prosperity of the nation than his removal from office.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-06-2020, 10:18 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Really? You think more testing that proves that we can start getting back to normal for the most part isn't in his interest.

I don’t think it in his real interest in the long term.  I think doing his job of fighting the virus and helping the people would be in his interest.  I’m just following the only guess we have for why he hasn’t done it.

Pandemics happen enough that most presidents of either party have a small team ready to handle them.  Trump decided to kill some of those teams, and not listen to the advice of some of his remaining people expert in the field.  This meshes with the idea that the problem does not exist, that it will soon go away.

(05-06-2020, 10:18 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote: I'm going to watch Fox and see what all the REAL experts have to say about what's going on these days.

Fox is living the fantasy.  They have an agenda, and don’t mind lying to achieve it.  They don’t come up well in the coastal media fact checks.  If you are going to immerse yourself in the fantasy, you won’t do much good here except to keep us in touch with what the sheeple are saying.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-06-2020, 10:32 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Incidentally, this going on for several years might actually make Covid-19 the climax of the Crisis, which I doubt it can otherwise be.

You are expecting another trigger? The boomers are going to age out of power soon, ending the window for the prophet - nomad - civic constellation of generations. With crisis war triggers rare to impossible given nukes, that leaves the chance of something else blowing up to a trigger low. After COVUS 19 is suppressed, the materialist selfish faction is going to want to shift rapidly into a high.

I’m not seeing another trigger coming along as likely. I was already working out what happens if a crisis configuration goes by without a trigger, which was looking likely until COVUS 19. What do you anticipate?

[beechnut79]

(05-07-2020, 03:55 AM)But Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 10:32 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Incidentally, this going on for several years might actually make Covid-19 the climax of the Crisis, which I doubt it can otherwise be.

You are expecting another trigger?  The boomers are going to age out of power soon, ending the window for the prophet - nomad - civic constellation of generations.  With crisis war triggers rare to impossible given nukes, that leaves the chance of something else blowing up to a trigger low.  After COVUS 19 is suppressed, the materialist selfish faction is going to want to shift rapidly into a high.

I’m not seeing another trigger coming along as likely.  I was already working out what happens if a crisis configuration goes by without a trigger, which was looking likely until COVUS 19.  What do you anticipate?

I can envision the bulk of the society looking for an escape hatch as feelings of restlessness and wanting more freedom come to the surface during what remains of the pandemic. Social distancing mandates have put a little more space between us, but some of those trends were already underway even before it hit.  Food delivery was already big business as more shifted that way as opposed to a lot of dining in restaurants although some still had significant patronage. And addiction to so-called social media has killed off much of the nightlife business for a few reasons plus making us less social face to face.  Here in Chicago pretty much the entire summer festival season has already been scrapped where in at least parts of Texas have resumed some live music performances.  I have been following a singer from Lubbock and she has already begun resuming some live performances.

The governor of Texas has been highly criticized for opening too much of the state too soon, while Illinois’ governor has proposed a five stage approach to reopening, having been encouraged to not do anything hasty which we may regret later. It is now up to each of us to explore healthy ways to deal with said restlessness and the need for something new and exciting.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-07-2020, 05:29 AM)beechnut79 Wrote: I can envision the bulk of the society looking for an escape hatch as feelings of restlessness and wanting more freedom come to the surface during what remains of the pandemic...

All of that I would count as extensions of the virus crisis.  Possible.

I have considered how a classic crisis war would start.  With everybody busy with the bug, I don’t see it overly likely to start abroad.

But Trump might be behind in the polls, and might try to win with a war surge in presidential popularity.  Alternatively he has a few months between the election and the inauguration to cement his legacy.  For lack of anything else to do I have let my blue imagination run wild and tried to anticipate the worst.

I can’t see him starting a land war in Asia.  He might invade an island in the South China Sea, but I don’t see China giving him much of an excuse.  For Russia he would want local bases, which I do not see the locals granting.  He has disengaged from the Middle East.

That leaves the nuclear forces.  My imagination falls short of believing he is that crazy.  Crazy, sure, but not that crazy.  That would be irrational.

Don’t see Biden wanting to start anything.

So far, I haven’t come up with anything I feel likely.

[David Horn]

(05-06-2020, 02:23 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 03:19 AM)Classic-Xer Wrote: Show me the fucking numbers, all the fucking numbers and I will prove that you're wrong. You're the one posting information on a public forum as if it's true not me. Do you like scaring people to obey and like whipping  up hysteria? Is that what you need to win?

You guys, financed by right-wingers like Betsy DeVoss, are the ones whipping up hysteria on the grounds that the measures needed to protect ourselves from this virus are curtailing our freedom. It is you guys, led by the Liar in Chief, the fake president, who are whipping this hysteria up so that this tyrant can get himself re-elected because the economy is rebounding. Failing that, he will use you guys, with guns in hand, to carry out a coup attempt on Jan.20, 2021.

Without going quite that far, but far enough I think, it may be a good time to review just how divided we are in our views of crises in general.  Here's a great article by Charlie Warzel that covers the issue from the perspective of freedom versus responsibility.  Freedom doesn't look too good. 

Let me know if it's behind the paywall.

[David Horn]

(05-06-2020, 09:00 PM)Classic-Xer Wrote:

(05-06-2020, 09:21 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: If you wondered how I estimated a death rate I divided deaths into total cases. Can the death rate change? Sure, but beware of the cytokine storms that may have killed so many apparently-healthy young people in the influenza pandemic of a century ago. 

I thought so. The total cases at the moment doesn't reflect the total amount of people who have had/ been treated for COVID19 so far. Once testing comes on line, the total cases will most likely rise substantially so don't freak out when it happens.

The best estimate of current cases: 10X the number reported. That's heartening in that most are very minor or totally asymptomatic. What's not so good is the issue of spread. If you have no idea that many of the people you see out-and-about are actually spreaders, how do you avoid being a victim?