The Coronavirus

[Bob Butler 54]

CNN has sailors from the carrier Theodore Roosevelt testing positive after a period of quarantine.  While this remains problematic for the navy, it also says counting on a herd immunity is a questionable strategy.

[Ragnarök_62]

(05-16-2020, 07:20 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Eric, the only way there would have been to avoid it would have been to shut down all incoming travel about December 31, including returning citizens.  I don't think that was unrealistic, especially considering how the WHO was then claiming there was no evidence of human to human transmission, which they continued to claim for months.

Uh, we have 17 intelligence agencies. who were actually on the job for once.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/...index.html

So Trump trusted the WHO over said agencies?   There's also a lot of congresscritters who knew as well.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2...764a454a45

So , yup, we coulda, woulda, shoula, but nope, Trump wanted to keep his stock market up damn the health consequences. I agree we shooulda done what you mentioned.

So, now, all of this opening up will slam us in a few weeks, and the stock market will crash even more. Eventually, when there's not much of an economy, stocks have to crash since a wave of bankruptcies is something even the Fed can't fix. The Fed can fix liquidity, but not bankruptcy.  That blows a hole in their fat balance sheet. I also don't see negative rates because that's bad for the Fed's owners.

[Kinser79]

(05-16-2020, 03:52 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-16-2020, 03:39 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(05-15-2020, 07:39 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I consider myself pretty blue with respect to the virus.  I mean, nothing that Rachel Maddow and Governor Cumo said last night made me want to double check.  And yet, with this guy, I didn't recognize myself at all.  His idea of what the blue mind set was simply didn't touch me.  That made me believe his mind set was made in la la land.  His news source would be mostly lies, and his beliefs thus bogus.

If you find the video at all relevant, you are likely of the same level of not reality.

I've seen this idiot before, some years ago.

I'm not convinced he is an idiot.  His way of looking at things is well thought out, but his ideas on how blues think are way off.  That means he managed to create a view of the world which has nothing to do with reality.  

That is likely necessary to justify what he wants to justify.  If your thinking has a particular answer first then creates an image of the world based on justifying what you have already decided, you wind up with weird ideas that don't fit anything real.

Or perhaps Bob the issue is that the Blues are not connected to reality. I doubt that ever crossed your mind for even a millisecond.

(05-16-2020, 04:04 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Last night Rachel put on a clip of Trump saying that if you test, you find someone contaminated with the bug, which is bad.

That sort of reminds me of a western, I think it was Dances with Wolves, where one chief used a magic spell centered on if you closed your eyes, they couldn't see you.  You became invisible.  In the movies, it worked.  They walked out of a massacre that way.

I just have the feeling this isn't the movies.  You can't make bad things go away by closing your eyes.

And Trump is right. If you do enough tests you'll eventually find at least one person to be positive for that test. Movie or not. Testing in and of itself isn't particularly useful.

(05-16-2020, 09:34 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(05-16-2020, 04:04 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Last night Rachel put on a clip of Trump saying that if you test, you find someone contaminated with the bug, which is bad.

Good to see that Maddow is trusting Trump now.

Maybe this is one of those rare instances where reality overrides ideology for the Blues. Somehow I doubt it though.

[Eric the Green]

(05-16-2020, 07:20 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Eric, the only way there would have been to avoid it would have been to shut down all incoming travel about December 31, including returning citizens.  I don't think that was unrealistic, especially considering how the WHO was then claiming there was no evidence of human to human transmission, which they continued to claim for months.

To my last post, I should have added, Trump's supporters. Especially those idiots with guns, confed flags and Trump signs.

WHO didn't claim such a thing. Trump spreads a lot of conspiracy theories about WHO. They have done good work, but Trump withdraws support for it. Just one of thousands of bonehead moves by drumphead.

I don't let China off the hook for not letting the world know sooner. The travel could have been shut down sooner to the Western USA. But the USA allowed the massive influx from the east. Since then, Trump's management of the crisis has been abominable, and every day he does something else dumb and destructive. We don't have competent national leadership. I hope we can get it 7 and a half months from now, but it will be a struggle to maintain democracy so we can vote him out.

China has shut down covid-19. They know how to do it, and so does South Korea. New Zealand always does well with everything. Europe is doing better. All because they have rational citizens and good leadership, while the USA, UK, Russia and Brazil do not.

IS THIS HOW AMERICA DIES?

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-16-2020, 10:53 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(05-16-2020, 03:52 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-16-2020, 03:39 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(05-15-2020, 07:39 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I consider myself pretty blue with respect to the virus.  I mean, nothing that Rachel Maddow and Governor Cumo said last night made me want to double check.  And yet, with this guy, I didn't recognize myself at all.  His idea of what the blue mind set was simply didn't touch me.  That made me believe his mind set was made in la la land.  His news source would be mostly lies, and his beliefs thus bogus.

If you find the video at all relevant, you are likely of the same level of not reality.

I've seen this idiot before, some years ago.

I'm not convinced he is an idiot.  His way of looking at things is well thought out, but his ideas on how blues think are way off.  That means he managed to create a view of the world which has nothing to do with reality.  

That is likely necessary to justify what he wants to justify.  If your thinking has a particular answer first then creates an image of the world based on justifying what you have already decided, you wind up with weird ideas that don't fit anything real.

Or perhaps Bob the issue is that the Blues are not connected to reality.  I doubt that ever crossed your mind for even a millisecond.

You are right.  It didn't. Considered for a moment. Dismissed it.

(05-16-2020, 10:53 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(05-16-2020, 04:04 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Last night Rachel put on a clip of Trump saying that if you test, you find someone contaminated with the bug, which is bad.

That sort of reminds me of a western, I think it was Dances with Wolves, where one chief used a magic spell centered on if you closed your eyes, they couldn't see you.  You became invisible.  In the movies, it worked.  They walked out of a massacre that way.

I just have the feeling this isn't the movies.  You can't make bad things go away by closing your eyes.

And Trump is right.  If you do enough tests you'll eventually find at least one person to be positive for that test.  Movie or not.  Testing in and of itself isn't particularly useful.

That shows how much you have been following the issue.

(05-16-2020, 10:53 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(05-16-2020, 09:34 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(05-16-2020, 04:04 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Last night Rachel put on a clip of Trump saying that if you test, you find someone contaminated with the bug, which is bad.

Good to see that Maddow is trusting Trump now.

Maybe this is one of those rare instances where reality overrides ideology for the Blues.  Somehow I doubt it though.

More likely it is a case of Warren being as truthful as usual.

[Bob Butler 54]

The way I see it, there are at least four groups of experts relevant to the COVID 19 problem.

There are the doctors.  They advise on how to best save lives.  Of course they need equipment, gowns, gloves, masks, ventilators, test kits, and test auxiliary supplies such as swabs.  They assume the objective is to save lives, and have a plan to do so.  It is to test, trace and isolate until such time as a treatment or vaccine is developed.  The way they see it, is that if you relax the isolation precautions such that the rate of infection is above one, R0, you get exponential growth in the number of people infected and and overloaded health care system as a result.

The second set of experts are on the economy.  They will tell you the sooner you open up, the more you open up, the better for the economy.

I do not  reject out of hand either group.  You have to give each it’s due.  To me, it is opening up responsibly, to keep R0 below one.  Urban states have the disadvantage of population density.  R0 is inherently higher.  Thus the coastal states got hit first and thus far the hardest.  They will have to take more precautions than rural states that start with an inherently lower R0.

As you open up, you increase R0 on average to above 1.  You will have outbreaks.  You have to test, trace and isolate to kill the outbreaks.  Unfortunately, the federal government has put roadblocks on having enough tests.  This path is currently unavailable to us.

The third group of experts is the Democratic election advisers.  They believe that if you prioritize the doctors over the economists, put people ahead of dollars, you wind up ahead in the voting.  So far it is working.  This seems to be a valid model of the electorate.  The approval numbers for the governors and for Trump reflect that the people in general favor stricter isolation and valuing life over the economy.

The fourth group is the Republican election advisors.  Many of them think the better the economy, the more chances their candidate has.  Thus, they want to minimize what the electorate knows that is bad.  Thus, the roadblock on tests.  The more you test, the more you find that things are bad, the worse your governance seems.  Thus, the doctors are unable to use their preferred strategy.

Now there is an alternate medical strategy that depends on herd immunity.  It is hoped that if you already had the bug, that you are immune.  If you maximize the spread of the disease, the sooner the herd immunity gets a chance to develop.  This may or may not be true of this bug.  Still, if you value the economy over life, dollars over grandma, it is a way to go.  Unfortunately, it is a poor election strategy.  You cannot say you are using it.  The majority of the American people value life over money, and you will get clobbered.  This may be the Republican strategy, but one they cannot talk about.

So those who put money over lives generally lie or live in a fantasy.  I don’t know which from person to person.  Can only guess.  In a way it is irrelevant.  Both are bad.  Both encourage the belief that testing is bad, and eliminate one of the tools necessary to bring R0 down, from preventing the health system from overloading.

The other problem is that certain sites force outbreaks, force a high population density, force a locally high R0.  These include nursing homes, meat processing plants and prisons.  As the employees of such places go home after work, they infect the community, which in turn infects the neighboring community, etc…  If these locations are not addressed, and they currently often aren’t, the advantage the rural states have in an artificially low R0 is gotten around.  Without testing, tracing and isolation, all blocked by the federal government, the rural states are as vulnerable as the urban states.

That summarizes it.  That is where I am coming from.  That is why I hold those who are advocating preventing the medical strategy in such blatant contempt.

[Mikebert]

(05-16-2020, 10:10 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(05-16-2020, 07:20 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Eric, the only way there would have been to avoid it would have been to shut down all incoming travel about December 31, including returning citizens.  I don't think that was unrealistic, especially considering how the WHO was then claiming there was no evidence of human to human transmission, which they continued to claim for months.

Uh, we have 17 intelligence agencies. who were actually on the job for once.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/...index.html

So Trump trusted the WHO over said agencies?   There's also a lot of congresscritters who knew as well.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/2...764a454a45

So , yup, we coulda, woulda, shoula, but nope, Trump wanted to keep his stock market up damn the health consequences. I agree we shooulda done what you mentioned.

So, now, all of this opening up will slam us in a few weeks, and the stock market will crash even more. Eventually, when there's not much of an economy, stocks have to crash since a wave of bankruptcies is something even the Fed can't fix. The Fed can fix liquidity, but not bankruptcy.  That blows a hole in their fat balance sheet. I also don't see negative rates because that's bad for the Fed's owners.

I don't think the stock market will fall.  It has become uncoupled from the economy because of Fed cash injections into financial markets.

[pbrower2a]

My BA is in economics... but I recognize the medical danger of COVID-19 (mass death and possibly crippling effects among many survivors) and recognize how disruptive those would be. (As a moral person I consider pointless death a pure abomination, so economics cannot refute moral law).

I am satisfied that America will get back to normal after much of our economic and social activity is back to normal. I find it unnatural to wear a mask, but I look at a mask as a means of allowing me to do much that I consider necessary and desirable under the circumstances. If you have a leg injury, then crutches might give you more freedom than you otherwise might have.

Once COVID-19 is gone it is gone. All that will remain of it will be some memories of a very bad time, a time of fear and hardship.

"Ring around the rosies, pocket full of posies, achoo! achoo! all fall down!"

It is no more innocent than "Lizzie Borden took an ax, gave her mother forty whacks..." which is also documented only from the late nineteenth century, but then on a current event.

Ring around the rosie,
[refers to the rosie-red (or purple-ish) round rash marks on the skin —one of the first signs a person had the plague]
A pocket full of posies;
[one of the superstitious ways used by people in the Middle Ages to try and fend off the plague was to stuff their pockets with posies (flowers)]
Atischoo, atischoo,
[sneezing was also an early sign of the plague if it was a pneumonic plague; however, not all types of plague involved sneezing]
or, Ashes, ashes
[the dead were often cremated]
We all fall down.
[most of the people strickened with the plague died]

http://www.sewerhistory.org/miscellaneou...the-rosie/

Death from plague was far more public than death is today. This said, modern imagery of death comes heavily from medieval reality when, during plagues, death was not simply someone dying as one expects now -- some old person approaching an anomalous age. There have been people who I thought would live to 100 yet did not. Among the more prominent, Billy Graham, Zsa Zsa Gabor, Carol Channing, and Doris Day. Some old person goes from seemingly hale to having a fatal stroke or heart attack, or someone dies in old age of cancer. Unless one works in a hospital or nursing home, one rarely sees death. I did see a dead woman on the pavement of her driveway once in my neighborhood... she had apparently been out to take care of her flowers. Beautiful flowers for their own sake, they weren't the ones that one associates with the plague. She was in her eighties. Maybe the last thing that she saw was her delightful garden upon which she had spent so much time and effort. I can easily imagine worse. She seemed to be a good person, and if there is a heaven, she is likely enjoying a delightful garden.

We all deal with death at some point, and we see it in one or more of its attributes. Hers is the only dead body that I did not see in person a funeral parlor or in a photograph. I was not around to watch someone die, but I have been around people on the last day of their lives with the knowledge that they would soon die. Of course we know statistics all too well, and COVID-19 gives statistics instead of visions of people dying horribly.

My apology in case this is too morbid for your taste. 80,000 deaths due to the incompetence of a political leader or of a the incompetence of a senior military officer in a bungled war or as the result of a callous disregard for the lives of workers in some commercial process offends my sensibilities. So does one murder.

[Eric the Green]

Trump disease is a terrible virus. It has spread worldwide. It is deadly. Millions have been infected and their minds ruined by this disease. Rumor has it that it originally came from Russia. Manufactured bio-weapon, it appears. Now it has spread to the USA (now the epicenter of the pandemic), to the UK, to Hungary, to Brazil, to Australia, to the Phillippines, and virulent strains have been detected in France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Venezuela, Chile, India, Saudi Arabia, Turkey... goodness knows where else. There is no cure, apparently, but people are working on it. It's called facts and education. It has only recently been tested, and trials have been shut down in some places. Some say the cure is as bad as the disease. The best cure has been covered up and rejected, so we have to settle for what is allowed by the boomers and the powers that be in the USA.....

[Kinser79]

(05-17-2020, 06:45 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-16-2020, 10:53 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(05-16-2020, 03:52 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-16-2020, 03:39 AM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(05-15-2020, 07:39 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: I consider myself pretty blue with respect to the virus.  I mean, nothing that Rachel Maddow and Governor Cumo said last night made me want to double check.  And yet, with this guy, I didn't recognize myself at all.  His idea of what the blue mind set was simply didn't touch me.  That made me believe his mind set was made in la la land.  His news source would be mostly lies, and his beliefs thus bogus.

If you find the video at all relevant, you are likely of the same level of not reality.

I've seen this idiot before, some years ago.

I'm not convinced he is an idiot.  His way of looking at things is well thought out, but his ideas on how blues think are way off.  That means he managed to create a view of the world which has nothing to do with reality.  

That is likely necessary to justify what he wants to justify.  If your thinking has a particular answer first then creates an image of the world based on justifying what you have already decided, you wind up with weird ideas that don't fit anything real.

Or perhaps Bob the issue is that the Blues are not connected to reality.  I doubt that ever crossed your mind for even a millisecond.

You are right.  It didn't. Considered for a moment. Dismissed it.

I see. Then you are then perhaps as connected to reality as Eric is. Given that it seems he lost vital brain cells smoking LSD during the 60s or something that doesn't bode well for our future together.

Quote:

(05-16-2020, 10:53 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(05-16-2020, 04:04 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Last night Rachel put on a clip of Trump saying that if you test, you find someone contaminated with the bug, which is bad.

That sort of reminds me of a western, I think it was Dances with Wolves, where one chief used a magic spell centered on if you closed your eyes, they couldn't see you.  You became invisible.  In the movies, it worked.  They walked out of a massacre that way.

I just have the feeling this isn't the movies.  You can't make bad things go away by closing your eyes.

And Trump is right.  If you do enough tests you'll eventually find at least one person to be positive for that test.  Movie or not.  Testing in and of itself isn't particularly useful.

That shows how much you have been following the issue.

It doesn't require obsessively watching the legacy media or even more modern media to determine that a test can only tell you if you have X, and does nothing to say cure or treat X. My point stands testing in and of itself is not very useful. After all we aren't talking about using tests to quarantine infected persons, instead the Blue solution is to quarantine everyone and wish the disease away. Strangely in Governor Carona's New York 2 out of 3 new cases are arising from people "sheltering in place".

https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/...story.html

Conclusion the lockdown is obviously not working. Further it is damaging the economy as well as not working. Those sorts of results would make most people question if opening back up and letting it run its course is not a better option. Maybe if there was some country that tried that. *Glares at Sweden*

Quote:

(05-16-2020, 10:53 PM)Kinser79 Wrote:

(05-16-2020, 09:34 AM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(05-16-2020, 04:04 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Last night Rachel put on a clip of Trump saying that if you test, you find someone contaminated with the bug, which is bad.

Good to see that Maddow is trusting Trump now.

Maybe this is one of those rare instances where reality overrides ideology for the Blues.  Somehow I doubt it though.

More likely it is a case of Warren being as truthful as usual.

[/quote]

This isn't very clear. Are you calling the man a liar or something less severe?

Mind you in my mind there is a difference between someone spreading nonsense they heard (shit my mother hears all kinds of nonsense from the Legacy Media that she tells me about--which almost always turns out to be false, or not the way she said it, or something) and someone deliberately spreading untruth. Lying requires a mens rea.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-17-2020, 07:59 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: I see.  Then you are then perhaps as connected to reality as Eric is.  Given that it seems he lost vital brain cells smoking LSD during the 60s or something that doesn't bode well for our future together.

I part ways with Eric as soon as he starts into astrology, but on the virus he has pretty much done his homework.

(05-17-2020, 07:59 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/...story.html

Conclusion the lockdown is obviously not working.  Further it is damaging the economy as well as not working.  Those sorts of results would make most people question if opening back up and letting it run its course is not a better option.  Maybe if there was some country that tried that.   *Glares at Sweden*

The actual conclusion to the article is as follows.

Quote:While New York may have the virus “on retreat,” Cuomo again warned against acting too fast.

“It reinforces what we’ve been saying, which is: Much of this comes down to what you can do to protect yourself,” he said. “Everything is closed down, government has done everything it could, society has done everything it could, now it’s up to you.”

That's pretty much the blue line, the line of those who value life over dollars.  It is the vantage point of Cuomo, one of those at the forefront of the blue perspective on the virus.

Now, telling the difference between someone who lies and someone who chooses to live in a fantasy world to support his values is hard.  I don't generally come down hard one way or another.  I just point out that both are bad.  

In the case above, lying about the conclusion of the article, it is hard not to come up with a conclusion.

[Kinser79]

(05-17-2020, 08:35 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote:

(05-17-2020, 07:59 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: I see.  Then you are then perhaps as connected to reality as Eric is.  Given that it seems he lost vital brain cells smoking LSD during the 60s or something that doesn't bode well for our future together.

I part ways with Eric as soon as he starts into astrology, but on the virus he has pretty much done his homework.

I highly doubt that Eric did any homework in relation to the virus other than reading the Blue Talking Points of the day. Which of course explains why you would conclude he did this supposed homework.

I've dealt with Eric for years. I'm fairly certain he is only connected to reality sporadically and when he does say something astute he is usually quoting someone else. For you I have higher expectations, maybe my optimism won't let me down, this time.

Quote:

(05-17-2020, 07:59 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/...story.html

Conclusion the lockdown is obviously not working.  Further it is damaging the economy as well as not working.  Those sorts of results would make most people question if opening back up and letting it run its course is not a better option.  Maybe if there was some country that tried that.   *Glares at Sweden*

The actual conclusion to the article is as follows.

Quote:While New York may have the virus “on retreat,” Cuomo again warned against acting too fast.

“It reinforces what we’ve been saying, which is: Much of this comes down to what you can do to protect yourself,” he said. “Everything is closed down, government has done everything it could, society has done everything it could, now it’s up to you.”

It is good to see that you approve of Official Propaganda coming directly from Governor Carona rather than the facts on the ground. If these people are socially distancing, wearing the masks, and doing all the other proscribed things then they shouldn't be getting infected. Yet they are. Ergo the virus is not in retreat anymore than it should be anyway as the season changes and temperature and humidity rises. There is a reason why Cold And Flu Season doesn't happen in Summer after all.

Quote:That's pretty much the blue line, the line of those who value life over dollars.  It is the vantage point of Cuomo, one of those at the forefront of the blue perspective on the virus.

No the Blue line can be summed up pretty simply. Orange man is bad. Must get rid of Bad Orange Man. Orange Man is a Money President...deprive people of money and then they will hate him and pick our alternative no matter how much worse he would be.

Dimocrats are not known for being deep thinkers after all.

Quote:Now, telling the difference between someone who lies and someone who chooses to live in a fantasy world to support his values is hard.  I don't generally come down hard one way or another.  I just point out that both are bad.  

In the case above, lying about the conclusion of the article, it is hard not to come up with a conclusion.

I would argue that Warren is likely living in his own fantasy world. He says things which quite frankly don't make a whole lot of sense to me either, and I am just not sure where he gets them from either. Bad or not bad, I've accepted that I usually have to take whatever he says with some salt, and verify. Pretty much like I do with you Blues. I'm sure my demands for "sauce" get tiresome--one of the reasons why I'm not very welcome among the Democratic Party locally these days.

In the case above I read the article. Thought about it, and concluded that they reported Governor Carona's talking point du jour while simultaneously indicating that people supposedly doing all the things they are told to do to prevent the spread of the virus are still getting it. So one has to either conclude that those people are lying about staying at home and etc, or one has to conclude that the lock down isn't actually working to contain the spread any more than would naturally occur due to Spring. Occam's Razor here indicates that the latter is the better answer.

Nice try there Bob but continuing in this vein might result in me busting out with some of Ronald Reagan's lines.

[Warren Dew]

(05-16-2020, 10:10 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote:

(05-16-2020, 07:20 PM)Warren Dew Wrote: Eric, the only way there would have been to avoid it would have been to shut down all incoming travel about December 31, including returning citizens.  I don't think that was unrealistic, especially considering how the WHO was then claiming there was no evidence of human to human transmission, which they continued to claim for months.

Uh, we have 17 intelligence agencies. who were actually on the job for once.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/...index.html

From your link:

Quote:A defense official denied any such report existed, telling CNN, "NCMI and the Defense Intelligence Agency spent considerable time over the last 24 hours examining every possible product that could have been identified as related to this topic and have found no such product."

In other words, this is just a usual case of CNN reporting false rumors and ignoring the facts.

Quote:

Warren Dew Wrote: Wrote:Eric, the only way there would have been to avoid it would have been to shut down all incoming travel about December 31, including returning citizens.  I don't think that was unrealistic, especially considering how the WHO was then claiming there was no evidence of human to human transmission, which they continued to claim for months.

To my last post, I should have added, Trump's supporters. Especially those idiots with guns, confed flags and Trump signs.

WHO didn't claim such a thing.

Keep telling yourself that.  Maybe you'll be able to delude yourself into disbelieving the WHO's own tweet.  I'm betting you're too smart for that.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-17-2020, 09:16 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: I highly doubt that Eric did any homework in relation to the virus other than reading the Blue Talking Points of the day.  Which of course explains why you would conclude he did this supposed homework.

I've dealt with Eric for years.  I'm fairly certain he is only connected to reality sporadically and when he does say something astute he is usually quoting someone else.  For you I have higher expectations, maybe my optimism won't let me down, this time.

Probably not.  He comes up with his thoughts from weird places, but they are his own.  I don't see him as connected to reality enough to read and spout the taking points of the day for any organization.  He is just not an organization sort of guy.

(05-17-2020, 09:16 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: It is good to see that you approve of Official Propaganda coming directly from Governor Carona rather than the facts on the ground.  If these people are socially distancing, wearing the masks, and doing all the other proscribed things then they shouldn't be getting infected.  Yet they are.  Ergo the virus is not in retreat anymore than it should be anyway as the season changes and temperature and humidity rises.  There is a reason why Cold And Flu Season doesn't happen in Summer after all.

The facts on the ground say the climate is warmer in the south than in New York.  If climate was the driving factor right now, New York would not be having fewer cases, the southern states more.  It must be another factor, such as the stricter isolation policies

But if you value money over grandma, you ignore the facts.

(05-17-2020, 09:16 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: No the Blue line can be summed up pretty simply.  Orange man is bad.  Must get rid of Bad Orange Man.  Orange Man is a Money President...deprive people of money and then they will hate him and pick our alternative no matter how much worse he would be.

Can't argue that they want to get rid of Trump.  He is preventing the medical response and flirts with loyalty to a foreign power.  Just ordinary politics would be enough.  They have more than enough reasons to dump Trump.

(05-17-2020, 09:16 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: In the case above I read the article.  Thought about it, and concluded that they reported Governor Carona's talking point du jour while simultaneously indicating that people supposedly doing all the things they are told to do to prevent the spread of the virus are still getting it.  So one has to either conclude that those people are lying about staying at home and etc, or one has to conclude that the lock down isn't actually working to contain the spread any more than would naturally occur due to Spring.  Occam's Razor here indicates that the latter is the better answer.

Right.  The climate is warmer down south than in the northeast.  And you claim Eric is detached from reality?

Coumo's point of the day was that government and society could only do so much.  Individuals have to take their responsibilities seriously for maximum isolation.  In Massachusetts, mothers are dropping kids off at the closed malls to socialize.  They are holding sleepovers for the kids.  In many places the conservative protesters are ignoring social distancing and PPE.  You just can't achieve maximum isolation when some individuals are more concerned with themselves than the community.

The higher R0 gets, the longer we have to keep the economy locked down.  If you don't take isolation seriously, you make this all the more painful.

[Bob Butler 54]

(05-17-2020, 09:47 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:

(05-16-2020, 10:10 PM)Ragnarök_62 Wrote: WHO didn't claim such a thing.

Keep telling yourself that.  Maybe you'll be able to delude yourself into disbelieving the WHO's own tweet.  I'm betting you're too smart for that.

WHO did repeat a claim from the Chinese authorities, but the Chinese were likely not being overly truthful at that point.

[David Horn]

(05-17-2020, 07:59 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: … It doesn't require obsessively watching the legacy media or even more modern media to determine that a test can only tell you if you have X, and does nothing to say cure or treat X.  My point stands testing in and of itself is not very useful.  After all we aren't talking about using tests to quarantine infected persons, instead the Blue solution is to quarantine everyone and wish the disease away.  Strangely in Governor Carona's New York 2 out of 3 new cases are arising from people "sheltering in place"...

This merely shows your lack of knowledge of epidemiology (not that I'm and expert either). The shelter-in-place policy was intended to slow the spread, not eliminate it. Places that moved fast, like South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, managed to use isolation to actually bring the virus as close to zero as possible, assuming no foreign traveler brings it back. In the US, the primary focus was our healthcare system that was being overrun by new cases -- just like Italy.

And let's admit it: living in NYC or any other highly dense city, makes addressing a pandemic that infects so readily a nearly impossible goal to achieve.

[Kinser79]

(05-18-2020, 06:15 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(05-17-2020, 07:59 PM)Kinser79 Wrote: … It doesn't require obsessively watching the legacy media or even more modern media to determine that a test can only tell you if you have X, and does nothing to say cure or treat X.  My point stands testing in and of itself is not very useful.  After all we aren't talking about using tests to quarantine infected persons, instead the Blue solution is to quarantine everyone and wish the disease away.  Strangely in Governor Carona's New York 2 out of 3 new cases are arising from people "sheltering in place"...

This merely shows your lack of knowledge of epidemiology (not that I'm and expert either).  The shelter-in-place policy was intended to slow the spread, not eliminate it.  Places that moved fast, like South Korea, Australia and New Zealand, managed to use isolation to actually bring the virus as close to zero as possible, assuming no foreign traveler brings it back.  In the US, the primary focus was our healthcare system that was being overrun by new cases -- just like Italy.

And let's admit it: living in NYC or any other highly dense city, makes addressing a pandemic that infects so readily a nearly impossible goal to achieve.

First, Mr. Horn, I never claimed to have any knowledge of epidemiology.  So we can ignore that little dig.  We know you probably know about as much as I on the matter as well.  That being said the healthcare system is not being over run with cases.  Not even in New York City.  Why?  Most people with the virus are actually asymptomatic.  If they don't feel sick and don't think they are sick they have no reason whatever to go to a hospital.  As such much capacity that was added to deal with Carona stands empty while at the same time necessary life saving procedures are being delayed by the lock down.

The case with Italy is probably a result of Italy being well Italy.  Which reminds me of this:

Old Joke Wrote:Heaven is where the cooks are French, the police are British, the mechanics are German, the lovers
are Italian and everything is organized by the Swiss.
Hell is where the cooks are British, the police are German, the mechanics are French, the lovers are
Swiss, and everything is organized by the Italians.

Next.  Let us suppose the idea was to slow the spread of the virus...that can be more easily done by face masks (to prevent those infected from spreading it rather than from the healthy getting it--that is why and how masks help, I know because I had to do a large PPE presentation at a company meeting and that is exactly why the CDC tells people to wear a face covering [and no an N95 mask isn't required, it is ideal but not required a simple bandanna will do].  The other thing to do is to wash hands, which people handling food should be doing anyway and is required health department training for all my staff anyway.  There was no need to lock down healthy people at all.

Also South Korea, Australia and New Zealand are very small countries and are not suitable comparisons for the US to use.  China is closer but their numbers are heavily skewed.  They aren't testing and they aren't reporting, and quite frankly the CCP can't be trusted.

[Kinser79]

(05-18-2020, 04:30 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Probably not.  He comes up with his thoughts from weird places, but they are his own.  I don't see him as connected to reality enough to read and spout the taking points of the day for any organization.  He is just not an organization sort of guy.

So you don't think Eric capable of watching CNN for half an hour and retaining that information in his head for a few more hours? I mean I understand the man has a disorganized mind but damn. Not even I am that pessimistic about his abilities and I regularly ignore everything he posts because I know it is coming from out of left field somewhere and probably doesn't have any connection with reality.

And honestly he can't even debate well. Like most Boomers he is of the "Agree with me or be lectured" type. Which is the main reason I ignore his posts. Could be worse I suppose, I mostly ignore PBR simply because he keeps saying the same shit over and over and it got old seven or eight years ago.

Quote:The facts on the ground say the climate is warmer in the south than in New York.  If climate was the driving factor right now, New York would not be having fewer cases, the southern states more.  It must be another factor, such as the stricter isolation policies

But if you value money over grandma, you ignore the facts.

I take it then that you're of the valuing money over grandma type then. I know that is a supposed dig at me but then again you seem to assume that I care about such things. Both of my grandmothers are dead and other people's well unless they are giving me money I don't have much use for them. That being said Carona numbers in the South are down very much down.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020...cases.html

If we take a quick gander at the above map what do we see and where are the most cases? Large densely populated cities and transport hubs. Which explains Atlanta, Miami, New Orleans and the larger cities in Texas. The rest of the South? The numbers are very low. So low that most people don't even know someone who is actually sick at all.

Looking at the same map we see the largest number of cases where? New York City, Philadelphia, Boston, Chicago, and Washington-Baltimore. It is now Mid May and these locations are warming up and will warm up to the point that temperature and humidity will counteract the negative impact that density has. Also it should be noted that New Jersey is the most densely populated state which is why its numbers are so high.

What can we conclude from this map? Density and climate are driving factors barring transport hubs (and transport hubs are always in danger of communicable disease).

Quote:Can't argue that they want to get rid of Trump.  He is preventing the medical response and flirts with loyalty to a foreign power.  Just ordinary politics would be enough.  They have more than enough reasons to dump Trump.

In what way? On March 13th Trump declared a National State of Emergency and has released as much hardware and capital as it is in his power to do to the states to deal with the virus as they see fit. Why is he having the states take a leading role here? The answer is simple, a one size fits all strategy simply won't work. North Carolina and North Dakota are vastly different in case load, density and climate for example. What are the driving factors in the spread of infectious disease (and these are all common sense factors no degree in epidemiology required--in fact having such a degree might prevent one from seeing the forest for the goddamned trees)? Density, Climate, Transport Hub location.

If anything the way Trump responded as President to this is Perfect. I imagine that if he had a D after his name (like he used to) you'd be singing his praises right now.

Also which foreign power is he courting? Certainly not China. Can't be Russia either. Muh Russia was proved to be a giant nothing burger. But do continue with the Legacy Media talking points, it only serves to show me how disinformed you are. And yes I say dis-informed, the legacy media publishes deliberately false narratives because it is in their political interests. That said, everything looks like Trump will be re-elected anyway because well quite frankly the Democrats are morally and intellectually bankrupt and everyone knows.

Quote:Right.  The climate is warmer down south than in the northeast.  And you claim Eric is detached from reality?

I'm not the one claiming that rates are rising in the South which IS opening up. In some cases quickly like GA and in other cases more slowly like Louisiana (I don't want that great state confused with that shit hole Los Angeles). FL is taking a measured but quick approach excluding Miami which is vulnerable as an international transport hub.

Quote:Coumo's point of the day was that government and society could only do so much.  Individuals have to take their responsibilities seriously for maximum isolation.  In Massachusetts, mothers are dropping kids off at the closed malls to socialize.  They are holding sleepovers for the kids.  In many places the conservative protesters are ignoring social distancing and PPE.  You just can't achieve maximum isolation when some individuals are more concerned with themselves than the community.

I have had my problems with people ignoring PPE. My solution is to refuse to serve them. If you want to come in and order your coffee and donut at the counter you MUST wear a face covering. If you have a problem with that you're free to use the drive thru or go elsewhere. I get this argument from customers about fifty times a day Bob. I'm enforcing this policy not because I'm an asshole, but rather because I prefer my workers to not get sick. (Purely for selfish reasons of course.)

As for dropping kids off at the malls and doing the sleepover thing sounds like a means to transmit the virus than the opposite. I've seen pictures of the protests and everyone seems to be observing proper distancing. Face coverings are less necessary out doors because the virus is large and doesn't travel well outside. It has difficulty inside too which is why the CDC recommendation is to have spacing 6 ft apart.

Quote:The higher R0 gets, the longer we have to keep the economy locked down.  If you don't take isolation seriously, you make this all the more painful.

The longer the country remains locked down the longer the economy will take to recover which means that any other disaster which may happen will be much much worse. I know you don't have a Floridian's concern here but I'm not looking forward to a possible One-Two punch this year to my state. Hurricane season starts in 14 days and there already is a sub-tropical storm in the Atlantic.

[Bob Butler 54]

I think Eric listens best to the beat of his own drummer, to the point of not noticing the Ohio State band marching by.

Not of the money over life school. You don’t seem to listen at all.

If I have to explain why the Democrats and Republicans dislike each other, you aren’t paying attention anyway.

As I have tried to say but you don’t listen, I’m all for opening up if you do so while keeping R0 below one while you do it. You seem to be taking the necessary precautions. If so, by all means open up.

[Bob Butler 54]

CNN has reported an initial success in phase 1 testing of a new vaccine.  We will see how it goes in phases 2 and 3.

This article has a video up which shows most of the south with an increasing case load, most of the northeast coming down.  This sort of conflicts with Kinser's claim of a big climate difference.  The cooler but isolating states are doing better than the warmer but more relaxed isolation states.