The Coronavirus

[pbrower2a]

The Secret Service deserved far better than this:

By Matt Shuham
|
June 22, 2021 3:01 p.m.

Quote:Almost 900 Secret Service employees tested positive for COVID-19 during the year since the pandemic hit the United States, according to public records published Tuesday.

The Department of Homeland Security’s inspector general released data on the positive test results to the watchdog group CREW, or Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington.

The records show that of the 881 positive test results recorded between March 1, 2021 and March 9, 2021, the majority, 477, came from employees working as special agents, and 249 were from members of the uniformed division.

Special agents are tasked with protective assignments — such as the Secret Service agents who drove around with then-President Donald Trump in a closed SUV after he tested positive for COVID last year.


The Secret Service’s uniformed division is tasked with protecting facilities, such as the White House and the vice president’s residence. The bulk of the remaining COVID-stricken employees, 131, were classified as “administrative, professional, technical positions.”

CREW noted that in addition to Trump’s Walter Reed road trip, the former president and his Secret Service-protected family took numerous trips to Trump-branded properties and held large rallies throughout the pandemic.

According to the Secret Service, the agency employs around 3,200 special agents, 1,300 uniformed division officers, and more than 2,000 other personnel.


That means, according to the records released Tuesday, nearly 14 percent of the Secret Service workforce contracted COVID-19 — including more than 19 percent of the uniformed service, which among other assignments was tasked with protecting the White House through an extensive COVID outbreak there.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/recor...-got-covid

Dammit, Donald Trump! He could have pushed masks at his rallies. Where I am, Wal*Mart was handing them out free. Those masks could have political messages including the obvious ones.

[Eric the Green]

Santa Clara County vaccinations

Total, one dose 80.6%
Completed vaccination 72.7%

By ethnicity:
White 65.58%
Black 59.53%
Asian 96.77%
Hispanic 58.96%
Native American 66.89%
Multi-race 47.92%

By generation:
Silent/War Baby 81.65%
Core Boomer 84.68%
Young Boomer through Core Xer 83.28%
Young Xer 79.42%
Older Millennial 90.87%
Young Millennial 77.96%
Teenage Gen Z, 57.81%

https://covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-vaccinations
right-click on charts to see figures ("table")

[Eric the Green]

A new study found that between 2018 and 2020, U.S. life expectancy decreased by the biggest margin since world war two. The pandemic took an outsized toll in America compared to other countries, with life expectancy as a whole dropping by nearly two years. But for Black (3.3% years drop) and brown (3.9% drop) Americans, the toll was even worse (than whites, 1.4% drop). William Brangham discusses the study's findings with lead author Dr. Steven Woolf. (of Virginia Commonwealth University, published in British Medical Journal).

Systemic racism is a major cause. Social policy, education disparities, housing, the health of communities, accounts for most of the disparities. what really driving the gap between the USA and other countries is lack of investment in our people and social capital. Going back to normal is not a good place for the USA. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/us-lif...ommunities

[Eric the Green]

It may seem like Santa Clara County would not be entirely typical of the nation in the differences among ethnic groups in vaccination rates, but actually, it pretty much is.

Similar rates are seen in other large cities. Looking at King County, where Seattle is located, 70 percent of eligible residents are fully vaccinated, but the success is not equally shared. Among American Indians and Alaska Natives, Asian Americans and Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders in Seattle ages 12 and older, vaccinations are on pace with (or ahead of) the city as a whole. Among white residents, 66 percent have completed their vaccine series. But just more than 50 percent Black and Latinx residents are fully vaccinated.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/as-u...Kf4BDBf744

[pbrower2a]

The death toll has just surpassed the 2019 Census estimate of Louisville, Kentucky, the 29th-largest city of the USA by population (roughly 618,000). If I have not been checking off the death toll for major cities -- well, in this range, the cities are getting fewer and farther apart in population, and the death toll has been slowing. We have long past the time in which America was dying the equivalent of a Pearl Harbor attack or 9/11 every day.

Next stop on the grim tour is Memphis, at nearly 650,000.

One is just as dead whether one is one of a few dozen in a day or 3,000, so keep doing safe contacts with people or have no contacts at all... and if you have yet to get inoculated, then what is your specious excuse?

[Dustinw5220]

(06-24-2021, 06:45 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: It may seem like Santa Clara County would not be entirely typical of the nation in the differences among ethnic groups in vaccination rates, but actually, it pretty much is.

Similar rates are seen in other large cities. Looking at King County, where Seattle is located, 70 percent of eligible residents are fully vaccinated, but the success is not equally shared. Among American Indians and Alaska Natives, Asian Americans and Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders in Seattle ages 12 and older, vaccinations are on pace with (or ahead of) the city as a whole. Among white residents, 66 percent have completed their vaccine series. But just more than 50 percent Black and Latinx residents are fully vaccinated.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/as-u...Kf4BDBf744

Those are indeed grim numbers. I'm already deeply concerned that either this new Delta variant (or some other potential future strain) is gonna potentially set us back to square one in our fight against this pandemic, sure so far the vaccines have remained effective against all the variants and that's good, but that's not necessarily gonna be the case for future ones.

The CDC is already backtracking and recommending (though not enforcing, *yet*) that everyone (including fully vaccinated people) continue to wear masks out in public for the foreseeable future, and no matter how much people like us are doing our part, all the anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers out there will sadly continue to be around to hamper progress. The main fear that I have is that the longer it takes to fight this pandemic and the mask and social distancing requirements (as well as all the other Covid-19 guidelines and restrictions) remain necessary (as they almost surely will be as long as large populations continue to remain unvaccinated and we continue to have dangerous new strains/variants), they'll become so deeply entrenched in both the national and global psyche that they'll become permanent (or at least until we enter the next Awakening in circa 2046-2047). I really do hope I'm wrong about all this, but it's worth noting that there were a few experts (back in March or April, I think) who thought it could take as long as 2027 or 2028 for the pandemic to fully end (basically around the time our 4T will end).

[Eric the Green]

I'm glad there are sane people like you Dustin and you brower and others here. Cases are still leveling off here in CA, and the Delta variant has not taken over to any greater degree here in Santa Clara County yet. But with anti-vaxxers and those programmed to be hesitant to get vaccinated out there, we can't be totally sure that covid will not surge again. Some of the red and purple states with large pockets of mostly-rural and exurban trumpers are now getting the most new cases. Something like 37% of the white and hispanic people in Santa Clara County (these 2 groups are just less than 2/3 of our population) are still not fully vaccinated, and the pace of vaccinations is slow. Covid may be with us forever, just like the flu is still with us after 1918. Only 10% of the world is vaccinated, and that needs to be ramped up a lot faster now. Luckily the India surge (from which the Delta variant developed) is about 1/10th of what it was 2 months ago, while Brazil is still the same disaster area that it was for the past year. Best wishes, and stay safe guys.

[pbrower2a]

[/url][url=https://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/]NATION

Illinois summer camp didn't require masks indoors. Over 80 teens, staff got COVID-19

Asha C. Gilbert
USA TODAY

More than 80 teens and adult staff have tested positive for COVID-19 after attending a summer camp in central Illinois that did not require masks indoors or vaccination status. 
Of the 85 people infected, about 70% of the cases were in those not vaccinated, according to a press release from the Illinois Department of Health on Monday.

"The perceived risk to children may seem small, but even a mild case of COVID-19 can cause long-term health issues," IDPH Director Dr. Ngozi Ezike said in the release.
CNN reported that the Crossing Camp in Schuyler County was held in mid-June and left one unvaccinated teen needing hospitalization after contracting the virus.
USA TODAY has reached out to Crossing Camp for comment.
The IDPH said it was aware of only a handful of teens and staffers who received the vaccine, though everyone at the camp was eligible. 

Some of the attendees also attended a nearby conference that resulted in 11 additional cases, the IDPH reported.

Crossing Camp said on its website that it was postponing the 4th and 5th grade camp until August due to a COVID-19 outbreak between June 13-17.

"We were so looking forward to spending time with your campers this weekend, but we believe the best way to value and love our students, difference makers, and staff is to delay camp until a safer time," the site said. 

The IDPH said Schuyler and Adams counties, where the outbreaks occurred, were approximately 40% vaccinated. About 53% of the population over the age of 12 in Illinois in fully vaccinated.

"IDPH is reminding people about the importance of vaccination, including youth, as the Delta variant and other variants continue to spread," the release said. 

Source: USA Today.


The camp in question

Blessed by God? From my experience, God ill rewards recklessness and institutional incompetence.

[nguyenivy]

(06-29-2021, 07:48 PM)Dustinw5220 Wrote:

(06-24-2021, 06:45 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: It may seem like Santa Clara County would not be entirely typical of the nation in the differences among ethnic groups in vaccination rates, but actually, it pretty much is.

Similar rates are seen in other large cities. Looking at King County, where Seattle is located, 70 percent of eligible residents are fully vaccinated, but the success is not equally shared. Among American Indians and Alaska Natives, Asian Americans and Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders in Seattle ages 12 and older, vaccinations are on pace with (or ahead of) the city as a whole. Among white residents, 66 percent have completed their vaccine series. But just more than 50 percent Black and Latinx residents are fully vaccinated.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/as-u...Kf4BDBf744

Those are indeed grim numbers. I'm already deeply concerned that either this new Delta variant (or some other potential future strain) is gonna potentially set us back to square one in our fight against this pandemic, sure so far the vaccines have remained effective against all the variants and that's good, but that's not necessarily gonna be the case for future ones.

The CDC is already backtracking and recommending (though not enforcing, *yet*) that everyone (including fully vaccinated people) continue to wear masks out in public for the foreseeable future, and no matter how much people like us are doing our part, all the anti-maskers and anti-vaxxers out there will sadly continue to be around to hamper progress. The main fear that I have is that the longer it takes to fight this pandemic and the mask and social distancing requirements (as well as all the other Covid-19 guidelines and restrictions) remain necessary (as they almost surely will be as long as large populations continue to remain unvaccinated and we continue to have dangerous new strains/variants), they'll become so deeply entrenched in both the national and global psyche that they'll become permanent (or at least until we enter the next Awakening in circa 2046-2047). I really do hope I'm wrong about all this, but it's worth noting that there were a few experts (back in March or April, I think) who thought it could take as long as 2027 or 2028 for the pandemic to fully end (basically around the time our 4T will end).

That entrenchment is what I was afraid was going to happen a year ago before we had vaccines. Maybe it wouldn't manifest in the form of masks everywhere for years to come, but even just things like people no longer feeling comfortable around strangers. Meeting new people after multiple years of this even when most people already got the vaccine will be difficult to feel totally at ease in the ways we have prior to COVID-19. In such a scenario, it could lead to streets being nearly empty every autumn and winter and everyone will flinch after hearing a cough or sneeze even years after the threat of COVID is over. If COVID both remains a continuous threat and we end up deciding as a society to live with it, I imagine some kind of verification system being invented that people will have to use in public and prior to meeting someone new that also preserves privacy. At some point, society will have to reach a point where everyone is willing to trust one another again. Hopefully the vaccines do the trick and we all get them sooner rather than later. I got mine last month.

Question: Isn't it usually the generation born after the Crisis that winds up being the one to have a 'clean break' with the way society was leading up to the Crisis?

[Bob Butler 54]

(04-10-2021, 07:55 AM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: Question: Isn't it usually the generation born after the Crisis that winds up being the one to have a 'clean break' with the way society was leading up to the Crisis?

Agreed.  The generation born in the high generally hasn't seen the problems that were resolved in the prior crisis.  Thus, they are not obsessed with the old problems, but free to see new problems.  The prior generation is traumatized by the conflict, and is more involved in setting the new normal in stone.

[pbrower2a]

When the pandemic seems to be over we are going to have copious evidence in the form of statistics in who the victims were by various demographics (age, ethnicity, occupation, education, rural-suburban-urban divide, and even religion and politics. We have yet to see much of an ethnic breakdown on who died, but should it be unreflective of the US as a whole, then that could reshape political life. Polarized as American politics have been for the last twenty years, demography is destiny until something breaks the pattern.

The economic consequences show in shortages and gluts. I'm sure that we all remember when we could not get sanitizer liquid. Now there is a glut. The supermarkets that I frequent have much less variety in selection.

If there is any good result it is that the neoliberal norm in labor-management relations seems to have broken. "Overworked and underpaid" was the blatant norm for about forty years; that seems to have abated. Such may have suppressed inflation, but at a grievous cost to anyone who did real work for less-than-real pay.

Labor shortages could be severe. Some occupations, such as employees of the New York subway system, were ravaged early and hard. I see more efforts to create contact-free transactions.

I would not be extremely surprised to find a special census to account for the human deaths from COVID-19. The toll is on par with a shooting war that went badly, at least by American standards. 620,000 lives is roughly twenty years of deaths related to motor vehicles. We spend huge amounts of public capital to make streets and highways safer with obvious justification.

[Eric the Green]

(07-02-2021, 06:28 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: [/url][url=https://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/]NATION

Illinois summer camp didn't require masks indoors. Over 80 teens, staff got COVID-19

Asha C. Gilbert
USA TODAY

More than 80 teens and adult staff have tested positive for COVID-19 after attending a summer camp in central Illinois that did not require masks indoors or vaccination status. 
Of the 85 people infected, about 70% of the cases were in those not vaccinated, according to a press release from the Illinois Department of Health on Monday.

"The perceived risk to children may seem small, but even a mild case of COVID-19 can cause long-term health issues," IDPH Director Dr. Ngozi Ezike said in the release.
CNN reported that the Crossing Camp in Schuyler County was held in mid-June and left one unvaccinated teen needing hospitalization after contracting the virus.
USA TODAY has reached out to Crossing Camp for comment.
The IDPH said it was aware of only a handful of teens and staffers who received the vaccine, though everyone at the camp was eligible. 

Some of the attendees also attended a nearby conference that resulted in 11 additional cases, the IDPH reported.

Crossing Camp said on its website that it was postponing the 4th and 5th grade camp until August due to a COVID-19 outbreak between June 13-17.

"We were so looking forward to spending time with your campers this weekend, but we believe the best way to value and love our students, difference makers, and staff is to delay camp until a safer time," the site said. 

The IDPH said Schuyler and Adams counties, where the outbreaks occurred, were approximately 40% vaccinated. About 53% of the population over the age of 12 in Illinois in fully vaccinated.

"IDPH is reminding people about the importance of vaccination, including youth, as the Delta variant and other variants continue to spread," the release said. 

Source: USA Today.


The camp in question

Blessed by God? From my experience, God ill rewards recklessness and institutional incompetence.

That story doesn't make a lot of sense. 30% of those infected were vaccinated, but they were mostly all adult staff?

That must have been a very high % of the adult staff who got vaccinated and still got covid. That is very rare. Or else the story is inaccurate.

[Eric the Green]

Santa Clara County vaccinations

Total, one dose 81.8%
Completed vaccination 75.1%

By ethnicity:
White 65.92%
Black 61.11%
Asian 97.85%
Hispanic 60.72%
Native American 67.05%
Multi-race 49.83%

By generation:
Silent/War Baby 81.65%
Core Boomer 84.93%
Young Boomer through Core Xer 84.08%
Young Xer 80.58%
Older Millennial 92.38%
Young Millennial 79.54%
Teenage Gen Z, 60.56%

https://covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-vaccinations
right-click on charts to see figures ("table")

[beechnut79]

(07-05-2021, 03:11 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Santa Clara County vaccinations

Total, one dose 81.8%
Completed vaccination 75.1%

By ethnicity:
White 65.92%
Black 61.11%
Asian 97.85%
Hispanic 60.72%
Native American 67.05%
Multi-race 49.83%

By generation:
Silent/War Baby 81.65%
Core Boomer 84.93%
Young Boomer through Core Xer 84.08%
Young Xer 80.58%
Older Millennial 92.38%
Young Millennial 79.54%
Teenage Gen Z, 60.56%

https://covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-vaccinations
right-click on charts to see figures ("table")

Eric, you keep telling us that this 4T will likel last until the end of this young decade. Could it be that we may still not know for several more years whether the Coronavirus will turn out to be the crux of this turning? What about the proposed 28th amendment which would get big money out of the political system. Thinks it has a chance of ratification before decade’s end?

[pbrower2a]

Few Americans believed on December 8, 1941 that the struggle against the Axis Powers would be anything other than a protracted war that would put everything that mainstream Americans cherish in mortal peril. Four years later, Mussolini's cadaver had been strung up dangling from the roof of a gasoline station, Hitler had offed himself, and Tojo was in custody. The much touted "thousand-year Reich" was dead in slightly more than twelve years, and the United States seemed more likely to have 831 (831 + 169 = 1000) years of life left than any other political entity on Earth -- and the USA had a head-start on any other political system then in existence except the United Kingdom. The third-oldest political systems in continuous existence were the Swiss Confederation and the Kingdom of the Netherlands (which has continuity through its Caribbean possessions during the war).

Even as late as the Battle of the Bulge, most Americans saw a long and horrible struggle... but as the US and British forces closed in on the Bulge in early 1945 the Third Reich would endure a military collapse. Germans got to know what a swift conquest by overwhelming force looked like without those imposing that swift conquest being Germans.

Ends of Crisis Eras typically end with surprising speed. Consider the Battle of Petersburg in the American Civil War. The Confederacy waged that battle well, even establishing trench warfare that would better resemble many of the military realities of the Western Front in the First World War. The Confederates defended Petersburg well until they ran out of troops to man the trenches. After that the Union Armies outflanked the Confederates and caused the Confederate defense of Petersburg (and ultimately Richmond) to disintegrate. Within a few days Robert E. Lee would surrender at Appomattox. But while the nine-month battle of Petersburg was going on, the Confederacy seemed to be a going concern. On April 2 and 3rd the Union forces captured Petersburg and the Confederate capital at Richmond. Within a week Robert E. Lee would surrender at Appomattox Court House, recognizing that he had no viable means of continuing the war.

Consider also that the British thought they had a chance to win the war against the rebellious Colonies as late as the Battle of Yorktown in 1781. The war was over except for the formality of a treaty.

Unless we have a major shooting war or some other unforeseen calamity that poses an existential threat to America as a whole coming soon we are likely approaching the end of the Crisis of 2020. COVID-19 is the mass death characteristic of a Crisis war. Even our nasty political polarization could be approaching an end should one of the two sides become ineffective.

[Eric the Green]

The saeculum and the cosmic cycles say that although the covid crisis may be ending, the fourth turning is not. Covid is just one of a series of crises caused by who rules America: the Republicans. But it will likely be only a few years after the Crisis Climax in around 2025 before the 4T ends.

The greatest crisis of our times, global warming, will continue beyond the 4T end. The resolution will just be, if it happens, that we turn the corner on implementing the solutions. That decision will be made at the ballot box, and the Democrats will have to get well-more than a majority of votes to prevail over the built-in Republican advantages. Meanwhile other crises may be some shooting wars, both domestic and foreign, that are still to come in this 4T that will have to be wrapped up in the few years after they erupt around 2025. Stay tuned!

[Eric the Green]

(07-05-2021, 10:59 AM)beechnut79 Wrote:

(07-05-2021, 03:11 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Santa Clara County vaccinations

Total, one dose 81.8%
Completed vaccination 75.1%

By ethnicity:
White 65.92%
Black 61.11%
Asian 97.85%
Hispanic 60.72%
Native American 67.05%
Multi-race 49.83%

By generation:
Silent/War Baby 81.65%
Core Boomer 84.93%
Young Boomer through Core Xer 84.08%
Young Xer 80.58%
Older Millennial 92.38%
Young Millennial 79.54%
Teenage Gen Z, 60.56%

https://covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-vaccinations
right-click on charts to see figures ("table")

Eric, you keep telling us that this 4T will likely last until the end of this young decade. Could it be that we may still not know for several more years whether the Coronavirus will turn out to be the crux of this turning? What about the proposed 28th amendment which would get big money out of the political system. Think it has a chance of ratification before decade’s end?

We don't know for sure how much of a problem covid will remain during the rest of the 4T, but likely it will be a simmering problem rather than front and center, thanks to our vaccines. The unvaccinated and the extremely immune-system compromised will still be vulnerable, but this won't close up the economy again.

Unless the Democrats get a much larger victory than anyone anticipates, I don't think big money will be eliminated from the system, nor the electoral college, through an amendment. It will take several Democratic presidents to shift the supreme court, and then a reduced or eliminated filibuster to pass restrictions on big money in the system through the congress. It's possible by the end of the 4T in the late 2020s that this could occur, but it may take longer.

[Eric the Green]

Santa Clara County vaccinations

Total, one dose 82.3%
Completed vaccination 75.8%

By ethnicity:
White 66.19%
Black 61.66%
Asian 98.33%
Hispanic 61.35%
Native American 67.33%
Multi-race 50.35%

By generation:
Silent/War Baby 81.77%
Core Boomer 85.13%
Young Boomer through Core Xer 84.42%
Young Xer 80.98%
Older Millennial 92.98%
Young Millennial 80.16%
Teenage Gen Z, 61.68%

https://covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-vaccinations
right-click on charts to see figures ("table")

[Eric the Green]

Most new cases in the world on Friday July 9, 2021:

1. Brazil 48504
2. India 41475
3. Indonesia 35094
4. UK 32367
5. Russia 25082
6. South Africa 21610
7. Colombia 20915
8. USA 14535
9. Iran 11664
10. Argentina 11664

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[pbrower2a]

(07-11-2021, 04:45 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Most new cases in the world on Friday July 9, 2021:

1. Brazil 48504
2. India 41475
3. Indonesia 35094
4. UK 32367
5. Russia 25082
6. South Africa 21610
7. Colombia 20915
8. USA 14535
9. Iran 11664
10. Argentina 11664

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Hey! We're #8 despite being the second-largest in population. Among the top 10 in new cases we now have the lowest number per capita except perhaps for India. (The medical system and public administration may not have accurate numbers because many COVID-19 victims are dying without being recognized as such). 

Even where we are is shameful, but it is worth remembering that nearly all Americans dying of COVID-19 are unvaccinated.