now that I think about it, we were quite the 4T nation for a while (very briefly)

[galaxy]

Some things are clear only in retrospect.

I've been thinking about last winter a lot lately.

Early 2020 was chaotic. The year opened with a major incident (Soleimani), and then the major incidents just didn't stop. We had an impeachment and primaries and a pandemic and a show about a crazy tiger guy and protests and a worsening pandemic and that's not even mentioning THE election (a phrase that will probably someday be as specific as "The Before Time" is now) and a thousand other things I'm probably forgetting (remember when everyone thought Kim Jong-un might be dead not once but twice?)...but what happened after that

I've made a few posts before about how in many ways we as a nation are "doing the 4T thing in spite of ourselves," but I've recently realized that it might be even more true than I thought it was.

The election happened, there was the tenseness and the chaos...and then it all went quiet. For the rest of November, and into December, January, and February, it was very dark - the darkest time in the lives of most people alive today by far (knock on wood) - and yet, no one talked about it. This short clip (1:09 to 1:30) from a video by Hank Green (born 1980, but obviously Millennial in all but birth-year) says it very well. I remember clearly in early November, as the cases really began to spiral out of control, it seemed as if a sudden organization, a sudden calm, a sudden systematicness (is that a word?) came over the country. I remember previously resistant states like North Dakota and Utah (where I'm currently attending college) suddenly instituting mask requirements on the same day (and the lack of reaction to them, when during the summer a certain subset would have responded furiously), I remember a distinct feeling of everyone collectively bracing themselves and realizing "we're in for it." And then the "superimposed surge" hit, and for four months, that's how it went. Not perfectly, of course - a particular day in early January comes to mind - but in general, the battles over masks and restrictions, the protests, the political campaigning - all ceased for four months, and everyone seemed to for the most part just do what they needed to do. I was personally trying to tune it all out because of all the bad news, when really that was exactly the right moment to tune in. Even as it looked chaotic on the surface, we were remarkably united in a strange way.
Even the weather seemed to fit the theme. I drove from my home in Missouri back to college in Utah for the second semester late (after being quarantined from having COVID). In early February, a huge "arctic blast" hit the middle of the country, and the Plains experienced what basically amounted to a tundra climate for about two weeks. And this is what I drove through. Temperature steady at one degree, near-constant snow flurries blowing around on the ground, making psychedelic patterns on the road ahead, everyone wearing several sets of clothes and just doing what needed to be done, through Missouri, through Iowa, through Nebraska, through Wyoming. Locked up and moving, staying together and far apart, and not an unmasked or undistanced person in sight. It seemed to sum it all up nicely. A Crisis is a saecular winter indeed, but sometimes winter is where you find the greatest warmth too.


I don't know what your experiences of this time were like, but this is what has come to mind for me.  I'm interested to hear your thoughts.

[pbrower2a]

All in all...

people refusing to take the vaccine have been making life miserable for the rest of us. But those are the people dying of COVID-19, and those are the people who will never be around to shout "Stop the Steal", call homosexuals "sodomites". or push quack medicine instead of a simple, safe, and effective inoculation with perhaps some annual boosters.

I got my first shot in February, and I got some nasty side-effects, but those convinced me that I had done right until then in avoiding COVID-19 and that if I ever got the disease I could easily end up quite seriously dead. Communities that have done the rational thing have set themselves up to thrive when things go well.

Beyond doubt, we are in need of major reforms of our society. Most obviously we must make at least two years of college a norm instead of an exception for anyone with the intellectual ability to handle the survey courses of a 4-year degree (typically in the freshman and sophomore years of a 4-year college) that are not offered in high school: economics, philosophy, psychology, comparative political systems freshman composition, a foreign language or a different one if one did not get one in high school. Maybe some appreciation courses in art, music, and cinema will teach people how to better use their free time. With the reality of much shorter workweeks to meet basic needs (the only things making life more expensive is a housing shortage where the jobs are and monopoly and corruption among America's Commie-style nomenklatura). Blue-collar workers have nothing to lose by learning to write coherently, understanding formal logic, being able to reject psychological manipulation, and to recognize that there is no free lunch. Oh yes -- and that fascism in all of its manifestations (including Ku Kluxism) and Marxism-Leninism suck badly.

I'm getting sick of the garbage that proclaims that Muslims worship some "Moon God" and that "Allah Akbar" means something as horrid as "Heil Hitler!" Well, maybe if we got some comparative religion into the mix, Christians would recognize that their god is Allah, and that the best thing for them is that God be great (a near translation of Allah Akbar".

In the end we are going to need to build plenty of inexpensive apartments, probably where many of the postwar suburban development has left behind housing that has become terribly obsolete even if not past its serviceable life, with good park-and-recreation facilities. Global warming makes the car culture unsupportable. We are going to need to see small business flourish as bureaucratic behemoths die for their waste, inefficiency, corruption, and lack of innovation. Solar power in place of what Herb Caen called "Profiteers, Grafters, and Extortionists" back in the 1970's (California's Pacific Gas and Electric is expert at buying politicians and gouging a captive clientele of about anyone who lives in California; even if it relies upon the cheapest source of electricity for the generation of electrical power -- hydro-electric power, it still charges some of the highest rates in America because it has a rigid monopoly).

The 4T is far from over. I see plenty of Trump banners still flying just one level below the US flag... and even banners that read "F--- BIDEN". Had Trump won, then it would be time for all Americans to accept the Slavemaster's Offer (Pie In the Sky When You Die, But Only If You Comply), praising our economic elites for the generosity of allowing us the generous perquisite of survival in miserable conditions so that we could be spared damnation that makes a Soviet Gulag or a Nazi KZ-Lager look like a paradise by contrast. Just toil, toil, toil, and always be thankful for the privilege of survival.

The Hard Right failed because it cannot convince people that their self interest is grave sin as did feudal elites.

[sbarrera]

I think that, despite all the sound and fury, the anti-mask/anti-vax element is a minority and our society has for the most part been willing to comply with measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus. I thought we adopted it quickly, and that this was a sign of us being in the 4T, even in early 2020. I remember being impressed by how readily people were following social distancing rules even in the spring of 2020, and going along with further measures like face masks required and limited numbers of customer in stores.

Now where I live in semi-rural Pennsylvania most of the folks are anti-maskers, and I am often the only one in a store who is wearing a mask, or in the small minority in a big box place like the WalMart (literally the only substantial retail outlet in my town). I suppose, in a way, this element is also 4T because they are united in their own version of *what must be done* - resist the tyranny of the Democrats, I think, is what they think they are doing, though I would say they are misguided. I live in a pretty well vaccinated state overall with relatively low Covid incidence (compared to hellholes like Florida) so I'd say this element is getting a "freedumb ride" thanks to living in a region with mostly sensible people.

[Anthony '58]

This is a tough call: One would have thought that 9/11 would have marked the start of the 4T - but not only have the Culture Wars not ended since then, but the Culture Wars have actually intensified (whether or not to receive the COVID vaccination is the most bizarre and ridiculous "culture war" issue of all).

I can't see how we are going to evade a Second Civil War - and since the "Mexican War and Sectionalism" 3T was clearly shorter than it should have been while this 3T was not, the Second Civil War is going to be far deadlier than the first, if for no other reason that the civil war will be nationwide, instead of confined to the nation's southeast quadrant, the way the original one was.

[Eric the Green]

(09-24-2021, 10:30 AM)sbarrera Wrote: I think that, despite all the sound and fury, the anti-mask/anti-vax element is a minority and our society has for the most part been willing to comply with measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus. I thought we adopted it quickly, and that this was a sign of us being in the 4T, even in early 2020. I remember being impressed by how readily people were following social distancing rules even in the spring of 2020, and going along with further measures like face masks required and limited numbers of customer in stores.

Now where I live in semi-rural Pennsylvania most of the folks are anti-maskers, and I am often the only one in a store who is wearing a mask, or in the small minority in a big box place like the WalMart (literally the only substantial retail outlet in my town). I suppose, in a way, this element is also 4T because they are united in their own version of *what must be done* - resist the tyranny of the Democrats, I think, is what they think they are doing, though I would say they are misguided. I live in a pretty well vaccinated state overall with relatively low Covid incidence (compared to hellholes like Florida) so I'd say this element is getting a "freedumb ride" thanks to living in a region with mostly sensible people.

I am glad you are going against the grain in your neighborhood and doing the correct version of *what must be done*

[pbrower2a]

(09-24-2021, 10:30 AM)sbarrera Wrote: I think that, despite all the sound and fury, the anti-mask/anti-vax element is a minority and our society has for the most part been willing to comply with measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus. I thought we adopted it quickly, and that this was a sign of us being in the 4T, even in early 2020. I remember being impressed by how readily people were following social distancing rules even in the spring of 2020, and going along with further measures like face masks required and limited numbers of customer in stores.

Now where I live in semi-rural Pennsylvania most of the folks are anti-maskers, and I am often the only one in a store who is wearing a mask, or in the small minority in a big box place like the WalMart (literally the only substantial retail outlet in my town). I suppose, in a way, this element is also 4T because they are united in their own version of *what must be done* - resist the tyranny of the Democrats, I think, is what they think they are doing, though I would say they are misguided. I live in a pretty well vaccinated state overall with relatively low Covid incidence (compared to hellholes like Florida) so I'd say this element is getting a "freedumb ride" thanks to living in a region with mostly sensible people.

The last-ditch supporters of a dying cause, the people who can't imagine some New Order in which much that they had fervent belief in is repudiated, the people with death-wishes... they can act with consummate fanaticism because they have nothing left to lose. Long into the summer of 1945, young Japanese men clamored for the opportunity to fly kamikaze missions -- missions that could only result in their deaths -- rather than acknowledge the inevitable defeat of Japan. Even someone not so young participated in such an attack upon the United States on August 15, 1945. Maybe refusing to get inoculated isn't quite so sure a way of death, but it seems similarly pointless.

Nothing so defines heroic winners and foolish losers as does the sudden transition from 4T to 1T. Obviously it is easy to predict prematurely an end to the Crisis Era. In 1940 it could have been Sir Winston Churchill found dead in the wreckage of the Map Room... or pulled out barely alive by SS brutes for exemplary punishment for resisting the Inevitable Victory. 

The most obvious end will be for 3T assumptions that got us into the mess. We will end up in a very different world, one in which certain technologies, economic norms, and cultural practices become irrelevant.

I say to those resisting the inoculation: nobody will be putting any microchip into you to track your every move. (Use a cell phone, credit or debit card, or try accessing a bank balance, and you will be tracked if the legal system connects you to a missing person).

[sbarrera]

(09-24-2021, 01:59 PM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(09-24-2021, 10:30 AM)sbarrera Wrote: I think that, despite all the sound and fury, the anti-mask/anti-vax element is a minority and our society has for the most part been willing to comply with measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus. I thought we adopted it quickly, and that this was a sign of us being in the 4T, even in early 2020. I remember being impressed by how readily people were following social distancing rules even in the spring of 2020, and going along with further measures like face masks required and limited numbers of customer in stores.

Now where I live in semi-rural Pennsylvania most of the folks are anti-maskers, and I am often the only one in a store who is wearing a mask, or in the small minority in a big box place like the WalMart (literally the only substantial retail outlet in my town). I suppose, in a way, this element is also 4T because they are united in their own version of *what must be done* - resist the tyranny of the Democrats, I think, is what they think they are doing, though I would say they are misguided. I live in a pretty well vaccinated state overall with relatively low Covid incidence (compared to hellholes like Florida) so I'd say this element is getting a "freedumb ride" thanks to living in a region with mostly sensible people.

The last-ditch supporters of a dying cause, the people who can't imagine some New Order in which much that they had fervent belief in is repudiated, the people with death-wishes... they can act with consummate fanaticism because they have nothing left to lose. Long into the summer of 1945, young Japanese men clamored for the opportunity to fly kamikaze missions -- missions that could only result in their deaths -- rather than acknowledge the inevitable defeat of Japan. Even someone not so young participated in such an attack upon the United States on August 15, 1945. Maybe refusing to get inoculated isn't quite so sure a way of death, but it seems similarly pointless.

Nothing so defines heroic winners and foolish losers as does the sudden transition from 4T to 1T. Obviously it is easy to predict prematurely an end to the Crisis Era. In 1940 it could have been Sir Winston Churchill found dead in the wreckage of the Map Room... or pulled out barely alive by SS brutes for exemplary punishment for resisting the Inevitable Victory. 

The most obvious end will be for 3T assumptions that got us into the mess. We will end up in a very different world, one in which certain technologies, economic norms, and cultural practices become irrelevant.

I say to those resisting the inoculation: nobody will be putting any microchip into you to track your every move. (Use a cell phone, credit or debit card, or try accessing a bank balance, and you will be tracked if the legal system connects you to a missing person).

I like to compare them to the Jacobite holdovers from a previous era. Trying to restore the MAGA dynasty. But maybe it's too soon for that comparison.

[galaxy]

(09-24-2021, 10:30 AM)sbarrera Wrote: Now where I live in semi-rural Pennsylvania most of the folks are anti-maskers, and I am often the only one in a store who is wearing a mask, or in the small minority in a big box place like the WalMart (literally the only substantial retail outlet in my town). I suppose, in a way, this element is also 4T because they are united in their own version of *what must be done* - resist the tyranny of the Democrats, I think, is what they think they are doing, though I would say they are misguided.

It's not "in a way" 4T, it's perfectly 4T. The fundamental center of this Crisis Era, the Crisis underlying all others, is the Cold Civil Culture War, the result of the ideological Prophet generation, now unobstructed because no Artist generation currently has enough power to stop them, taking their ideologies and "values" to their maximum possible extreme, regardless of the cost. In this case, with the polarized Boomer generation, the Culture War generation, we end up with a Culture War that is now so extreme that it colors huge parts of everyone's daily lives and is in large part responsible for the other Crises we have experienced. If the nation had had a unified response to the pandemic, rather than a fractured one, I think we can all agree that the death toll would be lower, probably dramatically lower. Even going back to the 2008 financial crisis - if the nation had put the partisanship and culture wars aside, then the response probably could have been stronger and the recovery faster.

(09-24-2021, 12:09 PM)Anthony Wrote: I can't see how we are going to evade a Second Civil War - and since the "Mexican War and Sectionalism" 3T was clearly shorter than it should have been while this 3T was not, the Second Civil War is going to be far deadlier than the first, if for no other reason that the civil war will be nationwide, instead of confined to the nation's southeast quadrant, the way the original one was.

I continue to doubt that the Cold Civil War will ever become hot. The original Civil War resulted from an extreme regional division over a single issue. It wasn't identity, it was a single issue - as the existence of border states and Southern Unionist areas like East Tennessee showed, "Southern" identity was not the driving force behind the secessions that began the war. Slaveowners wanted to keep their slaves, Northerners wanted to contain slavery, and eventually wanted to end slavery. It was a single specific issue, and the Transcendentals, like the Prophets they were, were ideological and ruthless about it. They pursued their "values" above all else, regardless of the cost, and they did so so forcefully that they distorted the saeculum itself, effectively skipping a turning and creating two hybrid generations. It was quite a cost.


Today, the situation is very different. The divide is identity, and it is totally unregional. The nation has split into two main identities, which I have previously described as the 3T Forever Identity* and the No It's A 4T Now Identity, but they actually agree on a lot more than they think they do. It's identity, not issues, that divide the nation. There is also very little regionalism, and what little regionalism does exist is still declining.** I'm from Missouri. I share my "identity" with people in huge numbers from all 50 states, and no state is truly "dominated" by one. To conflate it with partisanship a little bit (though it of course doesn't match perfectly), even if California votes 60-40 Democrat, it's still 40% Republican, still 4 out of 10 voters voting Republican. Trump received more votes in California than he did in Texas. There is no way for the two sides to sort themselves into two geographically distinct nations, let alone actually begin to function as two and fight each other. A hot Civil War now would be more like The Troubles than a true war. Actually, now that I think about it, does 1/6 mean that we're already there?

*the Tea Party was a 3T Policy Forever movement, Trumpism is a 3T Society And Culture Forever movement

**regionalism is declining generally, but there's also another interesting phenomenon, the "Southernization" of rural America, an increasing conflation of rural identity and Southern identity (and with it also 3T Forever identity, which results in Republican voting). It should be noted however that regionalism will never completely go away - it's just not possible - and as evidence of this, for example, there's a gradient across rural Iowa. The west of the state is far more Republican, with corresponding culture and identity features, than the east.

[pbrower2a]

(09-24-2021, 03:40 PM)galaxy Wrote:

(09-24-2021, 10:30 AM)sbarrera Wrote: Now where I live in semi-rural Pennsylvania most of the folks are anti-maskers, and I am often the only one in a store who is wearing a mask, or in the small minority in a big box place like the WalMart (literally the only substantial retail outlet in my town). I suppose, in a way, this element is also 4T because they are united in their own version of *what must be done* - resist the tyranny of the Democrats, I think, is what they think they are doing, though I would say they are misguided.

It's not "in a way" 4T, it's perfectly 4T. The fundamental center of this Crisis Era, the Crisis underlying all others, is the Cold Civil Culture War, the result of the ideological Prophet generation, now unobstructed because no Artist generation currently has enough power to stop them, taking their ideologies and "values" to their maximum possible extreme, regardless of the cost. In this case, with the polarized Boomer generation, the Culture War generation, we end up with a Culture War that is now so extreme that it colors huge parts of everyone's daily lives and is in large part responsible for the other Crises we have experienced. If the nation had had a unified response to the pandemic, rather than a fractured one, I think we can all agree that the death toll would be lower, probably dramatically lower. Even going back to the 2008 financial crisis - if the nation had put the partisanship and culture wars aside, then the response probably could have been stronger and the recovery faster.

As the late great Rod Serling would put it, "Now, for your consideration". Who could better fit our time? Hitchcock, perhaps?

One generation after another ages into irrelevance, and all that remains of the Silent generation is some superannuated geezers who have gotten early starts in politics and had freakishly-long careers. Feinstein. Pelosi. Biden. McConnell. Those careers too will end, and when they do there will be no more Silent to replace them in high positions of power.

The first wave of the Boom Generation, including both the "Good-bye" babies of 1943 and "Welcome home" babies of 1946 (including three Presidents -- Clinton, Dubya, and Trump -- are themselves getting extremely old by the standards of electoral politics. In 2021, people born in 1951 turn 70, and people born in 1956 turn 65. Political careers almost never (Donald Trump is the most blatant exception) begin in the middle-to-late 70's. Maybe the Gingrich-Trump types will become irrelevant.  We are seeing some prominent deaths among Boomers, including the late Rush Limbaugh. Any new Boomers in political prominence will be selected largely by younger members of the electorate.

As for the financial crisis of 2008... Obama rescued entities that got strong enough fast enough to buy enough of the political process to ensure that he who owns the gold makes the rules. Obama could stave off some of the effects of a political system intent on establishing a pure plutocracy responsible only to those with wealth and bureaucratic power, much unlike the situation in the 1930's when the rich-and-powerful could not buy the political system as their analogues could in the 2010's. Obama put an end to the bleeding of the economy in an earlier stage of the meltdown beginning in 2007 than could FDR following the meltdown starting with the Crash of 1929, but at a cost of social justice.

We could still be in for another financial panic. We may have saved entities Too Big to Fail in 2008 and some that were Too Corrupt to Save as well. Some that were Too Big To Fail have become Too Corrupt to Save in the event of another financial meltdown... and those that got saved despite being Too Corrupt to (merit) Saving are, not surprisingly, still Too Corrupt to Save.

Quote:

(09-24-2021, 12:09 PM)Anthony Wrote: I can't see how we are going to evade a Second Civil War - and since the "Mexican War and Sectionalism" 3T was clearly shorter than it should have been while this 3T was not, the Second Civil War is going to be far deadlier than the first, if for no other reason that the civil war will be nationwide, instead of confined to the nation's southeast quadrant, the way the original one was.

I continue to doubt that the Cold Civil War will ever become hot. The original Civil War resulted from an extreme regional division over a single issue. It wasn't identity, it was a single issue - as the existence of border states and Southern Unionist areas like East Tennessee showed, "Southern" identity was not the driving force behind the secessions that began the war. Slaveowners wanted to keep their slaves, Northerners wanted to contain slavery, and eventually wanted to end slavery. It was a single specific issue, and the Transcendentals, like the Prophets they were, were ideological and ruthless about it. They pursued their "values" above all else, regardless of the cost, and they did so so forcefully that they distorted the saeculum itself, effectively skipping a turning and creating two hybrid generations. It was quite a cost.


Today, the situation is very different. The divide is identity, and it is totally unregional. The nation has split into two main identities, which I have previously described as the 3T Forever Identity* and the No It's A 4T Now Identity, but they actually agree on a lot more than they think they do. It's identity, not issues, that divide the nation. There is also very little regionalism, and what little regionalism does exist is still declining.** I'm from Missouri. I share my "identity" with people in huge numbers from all 50 states, and no state is truly "dominated" by one. To conflate it with partisanship a little bit (though it of course doesn't match perfectly), even if California votes 60-40 Democrat, it's still 40% Republican, still 4 out of 10 voters voting Republican. Trump received more votes in California than he did in Texas. There is no way for the two sides to sort themselves into two geographically distinct nations, let alone actually begin to function as two and fight each other. A hot Civil War now would be more like The Troubles than a true war. Actually, now that I think about it, does 1/6 mean that we're already there?

*the Tea Party was a 3T Policy Forever movement, Trumpism is a 3T Society And Culture Forever movement

**regionalism is declining generally, but there's also another interesting phenomenon, the "Southernization" of rural America, an increasing conflation of rural identity and Southern identity (and with it also 3T Forever identity, which results in Republican voting). It should be noted however that regionalism will never completely go away - it's just not possible - and as evidence of this, for example, there's a gradient across rural Iowa. The west of the state is far more Republican, with corresponding culture and identity features, than the east.

Political divisions within society typically peak around the 3T-4T cusp, as in America around 1860 or Russia at the start of World War I. Although the polarization seems to have receded little, the fanaticism has abated some. In 1860 the slave-owning interests tried to convince Northerners that slavery was a wondrous practice even for the slaves... and they went too far. It is easy for d@mnyankees to curse the South, yet Georgia voted (barely) for Biden, which reflects that Atlanta is politically and even culturally more like Cleveland than it is like rural Georgia. Florida gets a rap for Republican pols, but Florida is almost always close in its elections at the federal level.

We have yet to see the manifestations of the Capitol Putsch on a national scale (although on the very day, Georgia had two runoff elections for Senate seats, and Democrats ousted two incumbent Republicans. which may not be coincidence). If that is not coincidence, then much of the common wisdom of American politics applying in the neoliberal era (1980-2020) in the Skowronek cycle (two such cycles usually correspond with a full Saeculum) disintegrates soon.

3T culture generally dies in a 4T... but 3T politics seems so far to have remained intact. It is not gaining support. It needs young voters to replace those voters excited by Gingrich's "Contract With America" and the Tea Party movement are dying off without being replaced by a fresh crop of young, reactionary voters. Maybe the next group of conservatives will be less reckless and reactionary so that they don't offend so many people... but by now, I see Democrats taking on plenty of conservative tendencies.

3T politics and mass culture depend upon the splintering of a society before a Crisis era but are inconsistent with the more conformist, placid, and moderate world of a 1T. People like Newt Gingrich, Ted Cruz, and Donald Trump would have never appealed to GI-like adults and did not have to when they won high office. When GI-like adults (the Millennial Generation is clearly Civic by now) are much of the electorate, then people like Gingrich, Ted Cruz, and Trump lose such appeal as they had. People will then prefer pols more like Lloyd Bentsen, George Romney, and Ed Koch.

The Hard Right does not want a civil society. It wants one of subjection and deference, in an economic order in which everything is a privilege instead of something that one earned but instead keeps by obeying the Right People who can end their careers abruptly.

[David Horn]

(09-24-2021, 10:30 AM)sbarrera Wrote: I think that, despite all the sound and fury, the anti-mask/anti-vax element is a minority and our society has for the most part been willing to comply with measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus. I thought we adopted it quickly, and that this was a sign of us being in the 4T, even in early 2020. I remember being impressed by how readily people were following social distancing rules even in the spring of 2020, and going along with further measures like face masks required and limited numbers of customer in stores.

Now where I live in semi-rural Pennsylvania most of the folks are anti-maskers, and I am often the only one in a store who is wearing a mask, or in the small minority in a big box place like the WalMart (literally the only substantial retail outlet in my town). I suppose, in a way, this element is also 4T because they are united in their own version of *what must be done* - resist the tyranny of the Democrats, I think, is what they think they are doing, though I would say they are misguided. I live in a pretty well vaccinated state overall with relatively low Covid incidence (compared to hellholes like Florida) so I'd say this element is getting a "freedumb ride" thanks to living in a region with mostly sensible people.

I live in a similar area in Virginia, and yes, most of the community thinks vaccines are tyranny.  The sad part: they thinnk it's God's will when they get sick, and, for those who think that way, it has no impact on their thinking about their own mortality.  Like PA, VA is a well vaccinated state as a whole, but looking county by conty, it's less consistent.  Lynchburg, home of Liberty University, is every bit as bad as Dade County Florida. The adjoining counties are moderately bad and the next counties beyond are fine -- all have the same mentality but less density.

[pbrower2a]

(09-25-2021, 09:47 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(09-24-2021, 10:30 AM)sbarrera Wrote: I think that, despite all the sound and fury, the anti-mask/anti-vax element is a minority and our society has for the most part been willing to comply with measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus. I thought we adopted it quickly, and that this was a sign of us being in the 4T, even in early 2020. I remember being impressed by how readily people were following social distancing rules even in the spring of 2020, and going along with further measures like face masks required and limited numbers of customer in stores.

Now where I live in semi-rural Pennsylvania most of the folks are anti-maskers, and I am often the only one in a store who is wearing a mask, or in the small minority in a big box place like the WalMart (literally the only substantial retail outlet in my town). I suppose, in a way, this element is also 4T because they are united in their own version of *what must be done* - resist the tyranny of the Democrats, I think, is what they think they are doing, though I would say they are misguided. I live in a pretty well vaccinated state overall with relatively low Covid incidence (compared to hellholes like Florida) so I'd say this element is getting a "freedumb ride" thanks to living in a region with mostly sensible people.

I live in a similar area in Virginia, and yes, most of the community thinks vaccines are tyranny.  The sad part: they thinnk it's God's will when they get sick, and, for those who think that way, it has no impact on their thinking about their own mortality.  Like PA, VA is a well vaccinated state as a whole, but looking county by conty, it's less consistent.  Lynchburg, home of Liberty University, is every bit as bad as Dade County Florida. The adjoining counties are moderately bad and the next counties beyond are fine -- all have the same mentality but less density.

I can give you some data on Michigan. As a general rule, people who have gotten the first inoculation (unless very recently, I suppose) have generally gotten fully inoculated. I expect to soon be in the third stage with a booster as I am 65 and have an autoimmune disorder (psoriasis) and a hideous record on upper respiratory infections. Those get worse every year, and I can almost predict that if I die of natural causes, pneumonia will be a contributing cause.

(Psoriasis? It's excess production and quick die-off of skin cells. An oddity? Dogs find it very tasty and love to lick it. It feels good to me, so I let them).

Detroit is very poor in getting inoculated. with only 37.07% of the people getting any inoculation at all, and only 30.73% are fully inoculated. Detroit is majority-black, and if I were a white racist I would be delighted with those statistics. What will it take? Calling COVID-19 "KKKOVID-19"?  I would be wary of visiting Detroit right now. Wayne County itself is much better; without Detroit, 59.06% of all people have some inoculation, and 54.27% are fully inoculated.

I'd like to see Detroit get more inoculated; the Detroit Tigers project to be an interesting baseball team to watch next year, as they are leaving the cellar with some good young talent that can only get better.

Some rural counties are really bad. Tuscola County, a hotbed for militia groups, is at 42.72% for partial and 40.20% for complete inoculation. Cass County, northeast of South Bend and due north of Elkhart across the state line in Indiana, is at 35.33% and 32.22%... Yuck! St. Joseph, which contains Sturgis and Three Rivers (St. Joseph, Michigan on the lake-shore is in Berrien County in case that creates some confusion) is at 40.77% and 38.12%. Let's put it this way: it is a good thing that Sturgis, Michigan, which has its own motorcycle rallies to exploit having the same name as Sturgis, South Dakota and is also a short distance off Interstate 90, had no such rally in the last two years. Branch County is much the same at 40.04% and 37.34%. Hillsdale County is hideous, at 36.24% and 33.74%. Hillsdale County is there, but don't blame the college; although one of the most conservative liberal-arts colleges in America that is not connected to fundamentalist Protestantism, it's a very small college.

I see a pattern of the counties of the northwestern Lower Peninsula, places of much tourist activity, having rather high rates of inoculation.

https://data.lansingstatejournal.com/cov...chigan/26/

Well, look at this link and draw whatever conclusions you wish.

[galaxy]

(09-25-2021, 01:20 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (the Millennial Generation is clearly Civic by now)

I'm glad someone else has noticed this. The Millennial Generation has transitioned during the last few years, and is much more obviously Civic now than it was previously. Of course it always was, but in 2014 one had to look much more closely and carefully to see it. Now it's impossible to ignore. I think the peak Civicness is probably those born between 1988 and 1996 or so. Perhaps the seemingly "stepwise" transition into this turning has stratified the generation a bit. Those born before 1988 are noticeably less collectivist and conformist, while those born 1996 and later are activists, with a general "darker" mood (that is, more cynical and less optimistic, but still just as collective), which might be partly responsible for the fact that wider society still perceives the Millennial generation as ending around 1997 or so (with the incorrect designation of memory and understanding of 9/11 as a generational fault line, rather than what it is, an intragenerational* divide).

It's clear that the 1988-1996 group are the ones "enforcing the rules of the new order." Or, at least, they're by far the most enthusiastic about it.

[pbrower2a]

(09-27-2021, 12:08 AM)galaxy Wrote:

(09-25-2021, 01:20 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (the Millennial Generation is clearly Civic by now)

I'm glad someone else has noticed this. The Millennial Generation has transitioned during the last few years, and is much more obviously Civic now than it was previously. Of course it always was, but in 2014 one had to look much more closely and carefully to see it. Now it's impossible to ignore. I think the peak Civicness is probably those born between 1988 and 1996 or so. Perhaps the seemingly "stepwise" transition into this turning has stratified the generation a bit. Those born before 1988 are noticeably less collectivist and conformist, while those born 1996 and later are activists, with a general "darker" mood (that is, more cynical and less optimistic, but still just as collective), which might be partly responsible for the fact that wider society still perceives the Millennial generation as ending around 1997 or so (with the incorrect designation of memory and understanding of 9/11 as a generational fault line, rather than what it is, an intragenerational* divide).

It's clear that the 1988-1996 group are the ones "enforcing the rules of the new order." Or, at least, they're by far the most enthusiastic about it.

Except for those born to wealth and privilege, childhood is not easy for Civic children. The important difference between the Reactive youth and the Civic youth is that the Civic youth get more direction and don't see their parents involved in ecstatic religion. The economic and political world that a Civic generation knows in childhood is a mess until it breaks. Maybe I have some explanation of the Gilded Generation that (at least in the North) knew a hardscrabble pattern of childhood but then found that the "adventure" of war became pure carnage that only the conformists could survive. The Gilded took on Civic traits in adulthood, which is awkward. I was born early enough to get to know plenty of GI adults, and few of them suggested that their early years were joyous. They improved themselves and most of the men of the latter part of the generation got the 'soldier' stage right.

I see much the same division between the early, middle, and late waves of the GI and Millennial generations as you do. The older wave sees the worst, and gets the lesson later -- but it gets the lesson, nonetheless. "Every man for himself" means that most of the world is wrecked. People go collectivist when they see rugged individualism leading only to hardship and failure because practically everyone is broke. They came to trust school and science more than religion. Religion was fine if it imparted some morals, but the Holy Roller stuff was for fools.

[AspieMillennial]

(09-27-2021, 05:15 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(09-27-2021, 12:08 AM)galaxy Wrote:

(09-25-2021, 01:20 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (the Millennial Generation is clearly Civic by now)

I'm glad someone else has noticed this. The Millennial Generation has transitioned during the last few years, and is much more obviously Civic now than it was previously. Of course it always was, but in 2014 one had to look much more closely and carefully to see it. Now it's impossible to ignore. I think the peak Civicness is probably those born between 1988 and 1996 or so. Perhaps the seemingly "stepwise" transition into this turning has stratified the generation a bit. Those born before 1988 are noticeably less collectivist and conformist, while those born 1996 and later are activists, with a general "darker" mood (that is, more cynical and less optimistic, but still just as collective), which might be partly responsible for the fact that wider society still perceives the Millennial generation as ending around 1997 or so (with the incorrect designation of memory and understanding of 9/11 as a generational fault line, rather than what it is, an intragenerational* divide).

It's clear that the 1988-1996 group are the ones "enforcing the rules of the new order." Or, at least, they're by far the most enthusiastic about it.

Except for those born to wealth and privilege, childhood is not easy for Civic children. The important difference between the Reactive youth and the Civic youth is that the Civic youth get more direction and don't see their parents involved in ecstatic religion. The economic and political world that a Civic generation knows in childhood is a mess until it breaks. Maybe I have some explanation of the Gilded Generation that (at least in the North) knew a hardscrabble pattern of childhood but then found that the "adventure" of war became pure carnage that only the conformists could survive. The Gilded took on Civic traits in adulthood, which is awkward. I was born early enough to get to know plenty of GI adults, and few of them suggested that their early years were joyous. They improved themselves and most of the men of the latter part of the generation got the 'soldier' stage right.

I see much the same division between the early, middle, and late waves of the GI and Millennial generations as you do. The older wave sees the worst, and gets the lesson later -- but it gets the lesson, nonetheless. "Every man for himself" means that most of the world is wrecked. People go collectivist when they see rugged individualism leading only to hardship and failure because practically everyone is broke. They came to trust school and science more than religion. Religion was fine if it imparted some morals, but the Holy Roller stuff was for fools.

I have bad experience with schools and science so I don't trust them. Science is seen as a religion now. Schools are brainwashing factories. Most of the people in my generation who feel alienated and think outside of the box are the people who question the school and mainstream science narratives. The people in my generation who trust school and mainstream science tend to be the people who don't think too deeply at all. It's just this default they trust because of the media.

[AspieMillennial]

(09-27-2021, 12:08 AM)galaxy Wrote:

(09-25-2021, 01:20 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (the Millennial Generation is clearly Civic by now)

I'm glad someone else has noticed this. The Millennial Generation has transitioned during the last few years, and is much more obviously Civic now than it was previously. Of course it always was, but in 2014 one had to look much more closely and carefully to see it. Now it's impossible to ignore. I think the peak Civicness is probably those born between 1988 and 1996 or so. Perhaps the seemingly "stepwise" transition into this turning has stratified the generation a bit. Those born before 1988 are noticeably less collectivist and conformist, while those born 1996 and later are activists, with a general "darker" mood (that is, more cynical and less optimistic, but still just as collective), which might be partly responsible for the fact that wider society still perceives the Millennial generation as ending around 1997 or so (with the incorrect designation of memory and understanding of 9/11 as a generational fault line, rather than what it is, an intragenerational* divide).

It's clear that the 1988-1996 group are the ones "enforcing the rules of the new order." Or, at least, they're by far the most enthusiastic about it.

I hate the new order. What do I do about it? Every solution being proposed to this mess are things I hate.

[beechnut79]

(09-27-2021, 09:43 AM)AspieMillennial Wrote:

(09-27-2021, 12:08 AM)galaxy Wrote:

(09-25-2021, 01:20 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (the Millennial Generation is clearly Civic by now)

I'm glad someone else has noticed this. The Millennial Generation has transitioned during the last few years, and is much more obviously Civic now than it was previously. Of course it always was, but in 2014 one had to look much more closely and carefully to see it. Now it's impossible to ignore. I think the peak Civicness is probably those born between 1988 and 1996 or so. Perhaps the seemingly "stepwise" transition into this turning has stratified the generation a bit. Those born before 1988 are noticeably less collectivist and conformist, while those born 1996 and later are activists, with a general "darker" mood (that is, more cynical and less optimistic, but still just as collective), which might be partly responsible for the fact that wider society still perceives the Millennial generation as ending around 1997 or so (with the incorrect designation of memory and understanding of 9/11 as a generational fault line, rather than what it is, an intragenerational* divide).

It's clear that the 1988-1996 group are the ones "enforcing the rules of the new order." Or, at least, they're by far the most enthusiastic about it.

I hate the new order. What do I do about it? Every solution being proposed to this mess are things I hate.

Well, the Boomers were divided in a similar fashion. While the early wave cohorts tended to be more idealistic and feel warm and generous toward others, the later wave by contrast were disciples of Reagan conservatism and ushered in the modern "creed of greed" which seems to still be in vogue today. Elsewhere on this forum I posted about the Occupy movement at the time of its tenth anniversary. While unsuccessful in the long run, it did, albeit for a brief period of time, return us to a  more idealistic mindset. A YouTube posted I recently viewed as a commemorative of the movement seemed to indicate that it did triumph in one respect, and that is that it created an awareness of the sharp divide between the rich and everyone else with the "we are the 99 percent" slogan. Should have spawned greater political change though. The backlash prevented both Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren from obtaining higher office.

[pbrower2a]

(09-27-2021, 09:38 AM)AspieMillennial Wrote:

(09-27-2021, 05:15 AM)pbrower2a Wrote:

(09-27-2021, 12:08 AM)galaxy Wrote:

(09-25-2021, 01:20 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (the Millennial Generation is clearly Civic by now)

I'm glad someone else has noticed this. The Millennial Generation has transitioned during the last few years, and is much more obviously Civic now than it was previously. Of course it always was, but in 2014 one had to look much more closely and carefully to see it. Now it's impossible to ignore. I think the peak Civicness is probably those born between 1988 and 1996 or so. Perhaps the seemingly "stepwise" transition into this turning has stratified the generation a bit. Those born before 1988 are noticeably less collectivist and conformist, while those born 1996 and later are activists, with a general "darker" mood (that is, more cynical and less optimistic, but still just as collective), which might be partly responsible for the fact that wider society still perceives the Millennial generation as ending around 1997 or so (with the incorrect designation of memory and understanding of 9/11 as a generational fault line, rather than what it is, an intragenerational* divide).

It's clear that the 1988-1996 group are the ones "enforcing the rules of the new order." Or, at least, they're by far the most enthusiastic about it.

Except for those born to wealth and privilege, childhood is not easy for Civic children. The important difference between the Reactive youth and the Civic youth is that the Civic youth get more direction and don't see their parents involved in ecstatic religion. The economic and political world that a Civic generation knows in childhood is a mess until it breaks. Maybe I have some explanation of the Gilded Generation that (at least in the North) knew a hardscrabble pattern of childhood but then found that the "adventure" of war became pure carnage that only the conformists could survive. The Gilded took on Civic traits in adulthood, which is awkward. I was born early enough to get to know plenty of GI adults, and few of them suggested that their early years were joyous. They improved themselves and most of the men of the latter part of the generation got the 'soldier' stage right.  

I see much the same division between the early, middle, and late waves of the GI and Millennial generations as you do. The older wave sees the worst, and gets the lesson later -- but it gets the lesson, nonetheless. "Every man for himself" means that most of the world is wrecked. People go collectivist when they see rugged individualism leading only to hardship and failure because practically everyone is broke. They came to trust school and science more than religion. Religion was fine if it imparted some morals, but the Holy Roller stuff was for fools.

I have bad experience with schools and science so I don't trust them. Science is seen as a religion now. Schools are brainwashing factories. Most of the people in my generation who feel alienated and think outside of the box are the people who question the school and mainstream science narratives. The people in my generation who trust school and mainstream science tend to be the people who don't think too deeply at all. It's just this default they trust because of the media.

Value-free education was a fad of the 1970's. Supposedly it would better fit a more diverse society. America is diverse, but it isn't that diverse. What matters more is that people reliably learn certain basics (literacy, numeracy, and a smattering of science, and some idea of how the political system works) with some cultural enrichment. A yarmulke and a bonsai tree do not indicate huge differences in ideas of what one must learn to cope in a world in which one is condemned (or blessed) to be in a minority. But despite the cultural differences, they may have much the same attitudes toward learning, and that makes far more difference than many other divisions.
 

We all have bad experiences with schools, starting with some teachers who might do more good for the world if they were doing something other than teaching -- cleaning houses, perhaps? Education does not reliably accommodate differences of culture (make a word out of the four letters c, t, a, and o and a kid on a reservation near Bemidji, Minnesota might naturally spell "coat" and a Mexican-American kid in Weslaco, Texas might come up with "taco".  A coat is an obvious necessity in Bemidji most of the year, and a taco is a stereotypical item of the local cuisine in Weslaco where one rarely needs a coat. If achievement aligns reliably along lines of IQ as an estimate, then there might be kids with IQ's as low as 70 and as high as 140 for two eight-year-olds less than a month apart in age. The kid with an IQ of 70 is probably reading as one would expect at 5.6 years (that is, barely if at all) and the kid with an IQ of 140 may have started reading before being toilet-trained... and now be reading as one would expect of someone aged 11.2 years, which is upper-elementary or lower junior-high level. Many teachers would like to deny that difference but it is real.

Values will appear in school, and every teacher will push some. Treating education as something desirable in its own is a value in itself. Promoting some mix of competition and cooperation to fit the society that one is in is unavoidable. "George Washington was born this day in 1732" is an inescapable reality on February 22 in America, if not everywhere. I've taught, and I deliberately draw no conclusions from ethnicity. I expect fair play as a norm. I didn't like bullies as a child, and I don't like them now. American kids are going to know the Star Spangled Banner as a predictable norm and "Jeszcze Polska nie zginęła" only under unlikely circumstances, and I would expect the opposite in Poland. 

I'm not going to knock religion as such, but in general most religions recognize certain lore as superstition. Allegedly, religion can improve people, and superstition doesn't. Science is only a tool for discerning some facts necessary for full enjoyment of life. Let's put it this way: science showed us how to make jetliners and build skyscrapers, and a religious tradition twisted into something inhuman commandeered jetliners and crashed them into the Twin Towers. Science can show us how to create hydrogen cyanide as a fumigant to destroy pests, but it is up to our ethical teaching to decide that using that hideous substance to kill 'inconvenient' people is a damnable abomination even if done in the name of the Nation.

If there is trouble in education it is that formal education can easily become the (bad) school-to-prison pipeline or that it is charged to do things best left elsewhere, like psychiatry and social work.

[Eric the Green]

(09-27-2021, 12:08 AM)galaxy Wrote:

(09-25-2021, 01:20 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (the Millennial Generation is clearly Civic by now)

I'm glad someone else has noticed this. The Millennial Generation has transitioned during the last few years, and is much more obviously Civic now than it was previously. Of course it always was, but in 2014 one had to look much more closely and carefully to see it. Now it's impossible to ignore. I think the peak Civicness is probably those born between 1988 and 1996 or so. Perhaps the seemingly "stepwise" transition into this turning has stratified the generation a bit. Those born before 1988 are noticeably less collectivist and conformist, while those born 1996 and later are activists, with a general "darker" mood (that is, more cynical and less optimistic, but still just as collective), which might be partly responsible for the fact that wider society still perceives the Millennial generation as ending around 1997 or so (with the incorrect designation of memory and understanding of 9/11 as a generational fault line, rather than what it is, an intragenerational* divide).

It's clear that the 1988-1996 group are the ones "enforcing the rules of the new order." Or, at least, they're by far the most enthusiastic about it.

An index might be which cohorts are most willing to get vaccinated. From what I see it's the older millennials, born 1982-1992, who are the most willing, so maybe that's the date of the most civic.

[Eric the Green]

(09-27-2021, 12:08 AM)galaxy Wrote:

(09-25-2021, 01:20 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (the Millennial Generation is clearly Civic by now)

I'm glad someone else has noticed this. The Millennial Generation has transitioned during the last few years, and is much more obviously Civic now than it was previously. Of course it always was, but in 2014 one had to look much more closely and carefully to see it. Now it's impossible to ignore. I think the peak Civicness is probably those born between 1988 and 1996 or so. Perhaps the seemingly "stepwise" transition into this turning has stratified the generation a bit. Those born before 1988 are noticeably less collectivist and conformist, while those born 1996 and later are activists, with a general "darker" mood (that is, more cynical and less optimistic, but still just as collective), which might be partly responsible for the fact that wider society still perceives the Millennial generation as ending around 1997 or so (with the incorrect designation of memory and understanding of 9/11 as a generational fault line, rather than what it is, an intragenerational* divide).

It's clear that the 1988-1996 group are the ones "enforcing the rules of the new order." Or, at least, they're by far the most enthusiastic about it.

I notice that the earlier millennials are more politically liberal and Democratic-voting. Does that mean they are more collectivist, or less conforming?

[nguyenivy]

(09-27-2021, 09:43 AM)AspieMillennial Wrote:

(09-27-2021, 12:08 AM)galaxy Wrote:

(09-25-2021, 01:20 AM)pbrower2a Wrote: (the Millennial Generation is clearly Civic by now)

I'm glad someone else has noticed this. The Millennial Generation has transitioned during the last few years, and is much more obviously Civic now than it was previously. Of course it always was, but in 2014 one had to look much more closely and carefully to see it. Now it's impossible to ignore. I think the peak Civicness is probably those born between 1988 and 1996 or so. Perhaps the seemingly "stepwise" transition into this turning has stratified the generation a bit. Those born before 1988 are noticeably less collectivist and conformist, while those born 1996 and later are activists, with a general "darker" mood (that is, more cynical and less optimistic, but still just as collective), which might be partly responsible for the fact that wider society still perceives the Millennial generation as ending around 1997 or so (with the incorrect designation of memory and understanding of 9/11 as a generational fault line, rather than what it is, an intragenerational* divide).

It's clear that the 1988-1996 group are the ones "enforcing the rules of the new order." Or, at least, they're by far the most enthusiastic about it.

I hate the new order. What do I do about it? Every solution being proposed to this mess are things I hate.

Isn't the 'new order' not established until the 1T? We may not yet even know what the new order is yet. If we still have the rest of this decade (2020s) in a 4T, then there is still plenty of time for new norms to be established. I think given we are still in the pandemic, it is too early for a new order to be in place that will stick. We'll see once the pandemic is over how much of a new order in society we really have. I thought for instance that remote work was going to stick around as a permanent thing only to see many offices requiring people back on-site now (just with a vaccine in them + maybe masks for now). Society still seems to be trying to revert to pre-pandemic conventions even in instances where the new option is easier or higher quality. Remote work also allows less pollution from commuting, which ties into the other big issue we have: climate change.