The Coronavirus

[pbrower2a]

(11-03-2021, 10:05 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-02-2021, 12:21 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(11-02-2021, 10:26 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-02-2021, 04:17 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Wow, only 72% of USA Americans have even received one dose. And people wonder why the pandemic continues?

This fits with a prior comment I made on another thread.  Dems need to quit wimping out and put vaccine mandates in place that have real teeth, then enforce them to the letter.  There will be howls until they actually work, then the howlers will either shut-up or move on to another whine.  Being weak is a guarantee of failiure, and the Dems have had failure imprinted on their DNA for decades.  Time to grow a spine!

Yes indeed. DeBlazio is showing spine on this, although not so much on some other things.

It may be that Dems are simply incapable of being authoritarian enough when needed to prevent disasters, allowing the Reps to run the board.  It's a large part of my contention that the 4T won't be successful, making the next 2T into a barnburner.  It's not my preference, but it seems to be how the game is going.

We are timed for a Crisis Era, but we as a nation have yet to unite for any great purpose. We aren't even handling COVID-19 well, So it's not a one-time bolt from the blue like the Pearl Harbor attack or 9/11? It has taken its sour time in which to kill about 750,000 people in America (at least what comes from an official count). As is my want I try to contrast such a statistic of mass death to something to which we can all relate. Let's start with cities: the death toll is higher than the population of America's 18th-largest city, Seattle. Yikes! It is a larger total than the third-smallest state in population (Alaska) and not far short of the population of the fourth-smallest (North Dakota). It is larger than the total of all counts of US military deaths of all US wars combined except for the Civil War. It's hard to know whether any particular occupational group has been ravaged to a greater degree than others, but that could explain some of the problems with the supply chain (especially if the people dying of COVID-19 should heavily be truck drivers or warehouse workers). As for comparisons to Pearl Harbor or 9/11, the death toll from COVID-19 has surpassed the death totals from those Dates of Infamy several days.

We all know that America is severely polarized in political life. America splits almost evenly between two sides that have little in common in politics. One side expects the other to either give in and give up every point of disagreement and move in lockstep or become irrelevant. We have had one of the most shameful events in American political history, and half of the public sees nothing shameful or ominous about it.

A near-majority of Americans voted in someone so awful as Donald Trump in 2016, and even more people voted for him in 2020. I occasionally see banners that read F-- BIDEN. I can't see how people on the Other Side can fail to recognize that Donald Trump was a moral travesty, that his pussy-footing with dictators could only go badly, and that his handling of COVID-19 is anything other than a disgrace. I can understand people differing with me on taxes, welfare, guns, regulations, abortion rights, LGBT rights, labor-management relations, and educational content because I am accustomed to seeing that. I can't understand the Other Side wanting America to fail so that Americans give up their civil and political rights so that we can have some greater prosperity and stumble along in an effort to recreate a 'lost' America.

OK.... rational thought is useful. It solves more problems than it creates. Freedom is a good idea, and that includes the freedom to be outside the political mainstream. People in China and Iran are perfectly free to align themselves with the political mainstream that the regimes define as permissible. Anything else is not permissible, and that alone explains how neither China nor Iran is a democracy. It would be better if we had a stronger civil society, which means that we would rely more heavily upon civic life -- religious services, lodges, and service clubs -- instead of numbing ourselves by watching sporting events in (name of restaurant chain excised) while drinking heavily, playing video games, or binge-watching series television. We would be better off if we rediscovered as owners as shoppers the merits of single-location stores even if we end up having to pay higher prices. (If it is compensation, we will buy less stuff and have less clutter, in part because if things have real cost we become more selective about our purchases).

Maybe structural changes in our social order have torn at some of the most critical assumptions. Our Constitution is intact with 27 amendments, ten of them the Bill of Rights and seventeen other amendments. Two of those offset (Prohibition and Repeal), and most of them on the whole expand human rights and the right to vote. The electorate is not only white, Christian, property-owning males over age 21 and any reversion to that would make a Trump-like nominee have a sure win in 2024. We have checks and balances still intact unless we have a despotic leader with a servile Congress. The most important of all checks and balances is a wise electorate that can vote out corrupt, incompetent, or unresponsive politicians. If we go unwise, then we too lose our freedom.

Donald Trump put our freedom at risk for nothing other than wish-fulfillment of about half the people. Most of the people who voted for him still believe in him and will support the politician most like him for president in both the Republican primary and the general election.

[David Horn]

(11-03-2021, 07:45 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: It's hard to say about this 4T. Usually it looks bad while we are in it. As you know, I don't see any basis for hope for the next 2T, if this 4T fails. Failed societies don't have 2Ts, unless rescued by other societies during their 4T. If our 4T fails, it is because our nation has become different from that of the past 500 years; more evil, more ignorant, more deceived, more stubborn, more complacent, more decadent, more greedy, more unmanagable by any human agency. So if that is the case about our current 4T society, then the 2T will just be further chaos and also end badly. It could be argued that our previous 2T ended more badly too than previous ones. If a nation is just in decline, then it doesn't really matter which turning it is in. It will just decline faster, or slower, depending on which turning it is in.

Here we disagree. We're not a lot different from the nation we were at our founding. We still have the same contending cultures and suffer the same conflicts -- just moreso. At some pont, we needed to renegotiate the contract we signed in the 1780s, and either split or develope a new commonality. Being a minority-ruled nation isn't viable, but that's where we are and where we're going for now. As far as being a failure and falling into a bottomless hole, I don't think we'll fail that way. Instead, we'll slowly fall apart at the seams, and AGW will finally push us to stand and deliver, or divide and go our separate ways.

Eric Wrote:Even this is hard to believe, given how evil our society has always been. But in our saeculum it has reached its peak of power and prosperity, and so decline in every way, which has already well begun, may be the only thing we can expect from now on. Yet, as I said, with 7 or 8 years left to run for SURE, we can't know just how our 4T will turn out. Whatever victory is achieved, if it happens, (and a blue victory is the only outcome that's a victory), it will be partial, not perfect, and only then we can expect further change and progress in the next 2T, with a renewed spiritual discovery or revival along with it that is mostly missing today, but has always happened in past 2Ts.

Here we do agree. I doubt we'll get our act together in the next few years, but we won't have a Kumbaya 1T either. Those ~20 years of messiness will be similar to the messiness following the ACW. That time we went backwards. I hope the opposite will be true this time, because AGW isn't playing games.

[Eric the Green]

(11-04-2021, 11:25 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-03-2021, 07:45 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: It's hard to say about this 4T. Usually it looks bad while we are in it. As you know, I don't see any basis for hope for the next 2T, if this 4T fails. Failed societies don't have 2Ts, unless rescued by other societies during their 4T. If our 4T fails, it is because our nation has become different from that of the past 500 years; more evil, more ignorant, more deceived, more stubborn, more complacent, more decadent, more greedy, more unmanagable by any human agency. So if that is the case about our current 4T society, then the 2T will just be further chaos and also end badly. It could be argued that our previous 2T ended more badly too than previous ones. If a nation is just in decline, then it doesn't really matter which turning it is in. It will just decline faster, or slower, depending on which turning it is in.

Here we disagree.  We're not a lot different from the nation we were at our founding. We still have the same contending cultures and suffer the same conflicts -- just moreso.  At some pont, we needed to renegotiate the contract we signed in the 1780s, and either split or develope a new commonality.  Being a minority-ruled nation isn't viable, but that's where we are and where we're going for now.  As far as being a failure and falling into a bottomless hole, I don't think we'll fail that way.  Instead, we'll slowly fall apart at the seams, and AGW will finally push us to stand and deliver, or divide and go our separate ways.

Eric Wrote:Even this is hard to believe, given how evil our society has always been. But in our saeculum it has reached its peak of power and prosperity, and so decline in every way, which has already well begun, may be the only thing we can expect from now on. Yet, as I said, with 7 or 8 years left to run for SURE, we can't know just how our 4T will turn out. Whatever victory is achieved, if it happens, (and a blue victory is the only outcome that's a victory), it will be partial, not perfect, and only then we can expect further change and progress in the next 2T, with a renewed spiritual discovery or revival along with it that is mostly missing today, but has always happened in past 2Ts.

Here we do agree.  I doubt we'll get our act together in the next few years, but we won't have a Kumbaya 1T either.  Those ~20 years of messiness will be similar to the messiness following the ACW.  That time we went backwards.  I hope the opposite will be true this time, because AGW isn't playing games.

Even with AGW, it's hard to be optimistic given such election results as Nov.2, 2021. The people don't seem to vote based on real concerns, but on prejudice slogans like CRT and momentary concerns like high gas prices. But, as I've said, the 4T often looks bleak while we are in it, and we have faced real crises in the past and won, so if we are the same nation, then that could be a basis for some hope that we may stumble into victory in spite of ourselves.

[pbrower2a]

In most Crisis Eras, the Civic component is already shaping the political culture. What violates Civic values becomes a losing proposition. Thus irrationality, chaos, and inequality that one expects from an every-man-for-himseff ethos becomes unacceptable and unsupportable. Promoters of pseudoscience and superstition, divisiveness, and selfishness find themselves treated as pariahs. Much of America supported Donald Trump after he proved himself a near-antithesis of civic values. A high-0profile politician promoting medical quackery instead of creating an environment in which people are expected to get inoculated? Trump reminds me of the worst sort of Idealist, the sort who as an exploiter expects others (including those that he exploits) to see him as a benefactor.

Let us recall that Donald Trump exemplifies the worst characteristics (arrogance, selfishness, and ruthlessness) of an Idealist generation while being weak on culture,erudition, and principle. He may be decisive, but he is decisively wrong. He is as clear a Idealist as one can be as a type. He is not an open-minded, inclusive, sensitive Artist/Adaptive. He is in no way pragmatic or perceptive. Maybe he combines vices that one associates with Civic (his hubristic pride and lack of personal reflection), Adaptive (neuroticism), and the crass materialiism and amorality that one associates with Reactive/Nomad generations at their worst.

So how would I have dealt with COVID-19 had I been President? I would be pushing people to do what is necessary to protect their lives. I would see COVID-19 as an enemy to be crushed When prominent people start dying of a respiratory disease then we have a valid concern. I might get the wrong analogue for COVID-19 (HIV/AIDS), but I would get the social distancing, hand-washing, and mask-wearing right. America would be awash in anti-COVID-19 propaganda. I would have stayed clear of medical quackery. I'd be calling out people who deny COVID-19

[Bob Butler 54]

In earlier American crises, the selfish attitude of the unraveling was overcome by a blatant threat to the common good. The crisis mood soon overcame the unraveling mood. This time around? The desire to not solve problems but leave resources available to the individual has so far stuck. The key seems to be that the government cannot have a regeneracy, a commitment to the new values, when the Congress is so close to balance. Every senator has an effective veto. This cannot change for at least a year.

[pbrower2a]

New York (CNN Business)Twitter suspended Newsmax White House correspondent Emerald Robinson for posting blatant misinformation about the Covid-19 vaccine, including claims the shots contain tracking devices linked to the devil.

Quote:

Quote:"Dear Christians: the vaccines contain a bioluminescent marker called LUCIFERASE so that you can be tracked. Read the last book of the New Testament to see how this ends,"

Robinson wrote in a now-deleted tweet. That claim has been debunked: The Covid-19 vaccines do not contain luciferase.
A Twitter (TWTR) spokesperson said Robinson's account was "temporarily locked for repeated violations of our Covid-19 misinformation policy."

Robinson has stated similar misinformation in the past, writing in September that if people want to avoid "taking the Mark of the Beast," then they should not get "anything that injects LUCIFERASE into your body." That tweet, as well as others that are steeped in conspiracy theories, remains on her feed.

However, several other of her recent tweets were also deleted because they violated Twitter's rules.

Twitter (TWTR) has been cracking down on misinformation surrounding Covid-19 and vaccines. Users are allowed to report tweets that contain misinformation to the social media platform.
Social media companies have increasingly come under criticism for facilitating the spread of political misinformation during recent election cycles and, more recently, the proliferation of Covid-19 and anti-vaccine misinformation.

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/11/04/media...index.html
Talk about being over the top in a conspiracy theory!

If you use a cell phone, credit card, or debit card then you are easy to track. So let's suppose that I made a huge wrong turn in life and become a fugitive. You use your debit or credit cards to buy stuff like gasoline to get away. So if you buy some gas at the Flying A in Winnemucca you will be traced.  If you make a cell-phone call to your buddies in the 'hood, you will be traced. If your employer has you use equipment on its behalf, then the equipment, then there might be GPS equipment on it that allows it to be traced in case you should try to sell property that isn't yours. Your car plates have something that can be read from a laser gun connected to a computer in a police car... and if your car is reported stolen, then that will make a recovery and arrest much more likely.

So how does one avoid the consequences of surveillance? Do nothing that causes the authorities to develop an interest in you contrary to your interest.

[nguyenivy]

(11-04-2021, 03:46 PM)Bob Butler 54 Wrote: In earlier American crises, the selfish attitude of the unraveling was overcome by a blatant threat to the common good.  The crisis mood soon overcame the unraveling mood.  This time around?  The desire to not solve problems but leave resources available to the individual has so far stuck.  The key seems to be that the government cannot have a regeneracy, a commitment to the new values, when the Congress is so close to balance.  Every senator has an effective veto.  This cannot change for at least a year.

Weren't at least one previous Crisis regeneracy phase caused by external factors? Was the general population of the US heavily involved in WW2 prior to the Pearl Harbor attack, for instance? Maybe dealing with COVID-19 was supposed to be used as Regeneracy this time around, but so far it doesn't feel like it (at least since about May/June 2020 when some states opened early and others were more cautious). Even some news mag sites are starting to post stuff like being in limbo regarding how we'll know when COVID is done, or how unsure life is now despite availability of vaccines. 


If the 4T still has till about end of this decade to resolve, perhaps the Regeneracy is yet to come. Maybe it will be another thing like the 'Great Resignation' that appears to be more connected to other prior events in the 3T that led us here, even if COVID just accelerated it to now rather than a more gradual wave of resignations. The last 4T began with the Great Depression & not WW2, right? So maybe the Regeneracy is more connected to the economic situation of the population rather than COVID-19 no longer being a threat. An easy way to mentally test the theory would be to imagine if COVID never existed or if we solve it a lot faster - the economic and other inequalities we have in society would still be there & need to be repaired so we have a fairer society. Maybe time for a 2nd New Deal? Last time we had the New Deal prior to the war. Maybe this time we get something similar going on after COVID-19?

[pbrower2a]

Does anyone want to know what the horrible substance Luciferase is? Yes, it is real. The -ase suffix indicates an enzyme.



Luciferase is a generic term for the class of oxidative enzymes that produce bioluminescence, and is usually distinguished from a photoprotein. The name was first used by Raphaël Dubois who invented the words luciferin and luciferase, for the substrate and enzyme, respectively.[1] Both words are derived from the Latin word lucifer, meaning "lightbearer", which in turn is derived from the Latin words for "light" (lux) and "to bring or carry" (ferre).[2]
Firefly luciferase

Structure of Photinus pyralis firefly luciferase.

Luciferases are widely used in biotechnology, for microscopy and as reporter genes, for many of the same applications as fluorescent proteins. However, unlike fluorescent proteins, luciferases do not require an external light source, but do require addition of luciferin, the consumable substrate.

A variety of organisms regulate their light production using different luciferases in a variety of light-emitting reactions. The majority of studied luciferases have been found in animals, including fireflies, and many marine animals such as copepods, jellyfish, and the sea pansy. However, luciferases have been studied in luminous fungi, like the Jack-O-Lantern mushroom, as well as examples in other kingdoms including luminous bacteria, and dinoflagellates.
Firefly and click beetle
The luciferases of fireflies – of which there are over 2000 species – and of the other Elateroidea (click beetles and relatives in general) are diverse enough to be useful in molecular phylogeny.[3] In fireflies, the oxygen required is supplied through a tube in the abdomen called the abdominal trachea. One well-studied luciferase is that of the Photinini firefly Photinus pyralis, which has an optimum pH of 7.8.[4]
Sea pansy
Also well studied is the sea pansy, Renilla reniformis. In this organism, the luciferase (Renilla-luciferin 2-monooxygenase) is closely associated with a luciferin-binding protein as well as a green fluorescent protein (GFP). Calcium triggers release of the luciferin (coelenterazine) from the luciferin binding protein. The substrate is then available for oxidation by the luciferase, where it is degraded to coelenteramide with a resultant release of energy. In the absence of GFP, this energy would be released as a photon of blue light (peak emission wavelength 482 nm). However, due to the closely associated GFP, the energy released by the luciferase is instead coupled through resonance energy transfer to the fluorophore of the GFP, and is subsequently released as a photon of green light (peak emission wavelength 510 nm). The catalyzed reaction is:[5]

• coelenterazine + O2 → coelenteramide + CO2 + photon of light
  

Copepod
Newer luciferases have recently been identified that, unlike other luciferases, are naturally secreted molecules. One such example is the Metridia coelenterazine-dependent luciferase (MetLuc, A0A1L6CBM1) that is derived from the marine copepod Metridia longa. The Metridia longa secreted luciferase gene encodes a 24 kDa protein containing an N-terminal secretory signal peptide of 17 amino acid residues. The sensitivity and high signal intensity of this luciferase molecule proves advantageous in many reporter studies. Some of the benefits of using a secreted reporter molecule like MetLuc is its no-lysis protocol that allows one to be able to conduct live cell assays and multiple assays on the same cell.[6]
Bacterial
Bacterial bioluminescence is seen in Photobacterium species, Vibrio fischeri, Vibrio haweyi, and Vibrio harveyi. Light emission in some bioluminescent bacteria utilizes 'antenna' such as lumazine protein to accept the energy from the primary excited state on the luciferase, resulting in an excited lulnazine chromophore which emits light that is of a shorter wavelength (more blue), while in others use a yellow fluorescent protein (YFP) with FMN as the chromophore and emits light that is red-shifted relative to that from luciferase.[7]
Dinoflagellate
Dinoflagellate luciferase is a multi-domain eukaryote protein, consisting of an N-terminal domain, and three catalytic domains, each of which preceded by a helical bundle domain. The structure of the dinoflagellate luciferase catalytic domain has been solved.[8] The core part of the domain is a 10 stranded beta barrel that is structurally similar to lipocalins and FABP.[8] The N-terminal domain is conserved between dinoflagellate luciferase and luciferin binding proteins (LBPs). It has been suggested that this region may mediate an interaction between LBP and luciferase or their association with the vacuolar membrane.[9] The helical bundle domain has a three helix bundle structure that holds four important histidines that are thought to play a role in the pH regulation of the enzyme.[8] There is a large pocket in the β-barrel of the dinoflagellate luciferase at pH 8 to accommodate the tetrapyrrole substrate but there is no opening to allow the substrate to enter. Therefore, a significant conformational change must occur to provide access and space for a ligand in the active site and the source for this change is through the four N-terminal histidine residues.[8] At pH 8, it can be seen that the unprotonated histidine residues are involved in a network of hydrogen bonds at the interface of the helices in the bundle that block substrate access to the active site and disruption of this interaction by protonation (at pH 6.3) or by replacement of the histidine residues by alanine causes a large molecular motion of the bundle, separating the helices by 11Å and opening the catalytic site.[8] Logically, the histidine residues cannot be replaced by alanine in nature but this experimental replacement further confirms that the larger histidine residues block the active site. Additionally, three Gly-Gly sequences, one in the N-terminal helix and two in the helix-loop-helix motif, could serve as hinges about which the chains rotate in order to further open the pathway to the catalytic site and enlarge the active site.[8]
A dinoflagellate luciferase is capable of emitting light due to its interaction with its substrate (luciferin) and the luciferin-binding protein (LBP) in the scintillon organelle found in dinoflagellates.[8] The luciferase acts in accordance with luciferin and LBP in order to emit light but each component functions at a different pH. Luciferase and its domains are not active at pH 8 but they are extremely active at the optimum pH of 6.3 whereas LBP binds luciferin at pH 8 and releases it at pH 6.3.[8] Consequently, luciferin is only released to react with an active luciferase when the scintillon is acidified to pH 6.3. Therefore, in order to lower the pH, voltage-gated channels in the scintillon membrane are opened to allow the entry of protons from a vacuole possessing an action potential produced from a mechanical stimulation.[8] Hence, it can be seen that the action potential in the vacuolar membrane leads to acidification and this in turn allows the luciferin to be released to react with luciferase in the scintillon, producing a flash of blue light.
Mechanism of reaction
All luciferases are classified as oxidoreductases (EC 1.13.12.-), meaning they act on single donors with incorporation of molecular oxygen. Because luciferases are from many diverse protein families that are unrelated, there is no unifying mechanism, as any mechanism depends on the luciferase and luciferin combination. However, all characterised luciferase-luciferin reactions to date have been shown to require molecular oxygen at some stage.

Bacterial luciferase

The reaction catalyzed by bacterial luciferase is also an oxidative process:

• FMNH2 + O2 + RCHO → FMN + RCOOH + H2O + light
  

In the reaction, molecular oxygen oxidizes flavin mononucleotide and a long-chain aliphatic aldehyde to an aliphatic carboxylic acid. The reaction forms an excited hydroxyflavin intermediate, which is dehydrated to the product FMN to emit blue-green light.[10]
Nearly all of the energy input into the reaction is transformed into light. The reaction is 80%[11] to 90%[12] efficient. In comparison, the incandescent light bulb only converts about 10% of its energy into light[13] and a 150 lumen per Watt (lm/W) LED converts 20% of input energy to visible light.[12]
Applications
Luciferases can be produced in the lab through genetic engineering for a number of purposes. Luciferase genes can be synthesized and inserted into organisms or transfected into cells. As of 2002, mice, silkworms, and potatoes are just a few of the organisms that have already been engineered to produce the protein.[14]
In the luciferase reaction, light is emitted when luciferase acts on the appropriate luciferin substrate. Photon emission can be detected by light sensitive apparatus such as a luminometer or modified optical microscopes. This allows observation of biological processes.[15] Since light excitation is not needed for luciferase bioluminescence, there is minimal autofluorescence and therefore virtually background-free fluorescence.[16] Therefore, as little as 0.02 pg can still be accurately measured using a standard scintillation counter.[17]
In biological research, luciferase is commonly used as a reporter to assess the transcriptional activity in cells that are transfected with a genetic construct containing the luciferase gene under the control of a promoter of interest.[18] Additionally, proluminescent molecules that are converted to luciferin upon activity of a particular enzyme can be used to detect enzyme activity in coupled or two-step luciferase assays. Such substrates have been used to detect caspase activity and cytochrome P450 activity, among others.[15][18]
Luciferase can also be used to detect the level of cellular ATP in cell viability assays or for kinase activity assays.[18][19] Luciferase can act as an ATP sensor protein through biotinylation. Biotinylation will immobilize luciferase on the cell-surface by binding to a streptavidin-biotin complex. This allows luciferase to detect the efflux of ATP from the cell and will effectively display the real-time release of ATP through bioluminescence.[20] Luciferase can additionally be made more sensitive for ATP detection by increasing the luminescence intensity by changing certain amino acid residues in the sequence of the protein.[21]

Whole animal imaging (referred to as in vivo when living or, otherwise called ex vivo imaging) is a powerful technique for studying cell populations in live animals, such as mice.[22] Different types of cells (e.g. bone marrow stem cells, T-cells) can be engineered to express a luciferase allowing their non-invasive visualization inside a live animal using a sensitive charge-couple device camera (CCD camera).This technique has been used to follow tumorigenesis and response of tumors to treatment in animal models.[23][24] However, environmental factors and therapeutic interferences may cause some discrepancies between tumor burden and bioluminescence intensity in relation to changes in proliferative activity. The intensity of the signal measured by in vivo imaging may depend on various factors, such as D-luciferin absorption through the peritoneum, blood flow, cell membrane permeability, availability of co-factors, intracellular pH and transparency of overlying tissue, in addition to the amount of luciferase.[25]
Luciferase is a heat-sensitive protein that is used in studies on protein denaturation, testing the protective capacities of heat shock proteins. The opportunities for using luciferase continue to expand.[26]

In November 2021, a White House correspondent for the conservative outlet Newsmax falsely tweeted that a COVID-19 vaccine contained luciferase "so that you can be tracked."[27][28]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luciferase

If the story is too good to be true, then a wise journalist can do some fact-checking. Luciferase has nothing to do with any malign spirits. Tracking us? We'd need far more than what it takes to light up a firefly. Seemingly everyone has Internet access, and that is good enough for determining whether an easy and obvious connection between a word and a story does not exist.

Of course, if the government really does want to track you down as is the case for a fugitive, then credit cards, debit cards, food-aid cards, and cell phones can do the trick. You need to be paid under the table, which creates potential trouble for a potential employer who faces charges for tax fraud of various sorts.

[David Horn]

(11-04-2021, 12:44 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(11-04-2021, 11:25 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-03-2021, 07:45 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: It's hard to say about this 4T. Usually it looks bad while we are in it. As you know, I don't see any basis for hope for the next 2T, if this 4T fails. Failed societies don't have 2Ts, unless rescued by other societies during their 4T. If our 4T fails, it is because our nation has become different from that of the past 500 years; more evil, more ignorant, more deceived, more stubborn, more complacent, more decadent, more greedy, more unmanagable by any human agency. So if that is the case about our current 4T society, then the 2T will just be further chaos and also end badly. It could be argued that our previous 2T ended more badly too than previous ones. If a nation is just in decline, then it doesn't really matter which turning it is in. It will just decline faster, or slower, depending on which turning it is in.

Here we disagree.  We're not a lot different from the nation we were at our founding. We still have the same contending cultures and suffer the same conflicts -- just moreso.  At some pont, we needed to renegotiate the contract we signed in the 1780s, and either split or develope a new commonality.  Being a minority-ruled nation isn't viable, but that's where we are and where we're going for now.  As far as being a failure and falling into a bottomless hole, I don't think we'll fail that way.  Instead, we'll slowly fall apart at the seams, and AGW will finally push us to stand and deliver, or divide and go our separate ways.

Eric Wrote:Even this is hard to believe, given how evil our society has always been. But in our saeculum it has reached its peak of power and prosperity, and so decline in every way, which has already well begun, may be the only thing we can expect from now on. Yet, as I said, with 7 or 8 years left to run for SURE, we can't know just how our 4T will turn out. Whatever victory is achieved, if it happens, (and a blue victory is the only outcome that's a victory), it will be partial, not perfect, and only then we can expect further change and progress in the next 2T, with a renewed spiritual discovery or revival along with it that is mostly missing today, but has always happened in past 2Ts.

Here we do agree.  I doubt we'll get our act together in the next few years, but we won't have a Kumbaya 1T either.  Those ~20 years of messiness will be similar to the messiness following the ACW.  That time we went backwards.  I hope the opposite will be true this time, because AGW isn't playing games.

Even with AGW, it's hard to be optimistic given such election results as Nov.2, 2021. The people don't seem to vote based on real concerns, but on prejudice slogans like CRT and momentary concerns like high gas prices. But, as I've said, the 4T often looks bleak while we are in it, and we have faced real crises in the past and won, so if we are the same nation, then that could be a basis for some hope that we may stumble into victory in spite of ourselves.

No one fights harder than a cornered animal.  The GOP is pulling out all the stops; the Lee Atwater playbook is open to every page at once.  They see a tiny window to win and win for good (at least they see it that way).  Worse case scenarion: they actually succeed in electing a Trump 2.0 in 2024 (probably DeSantis or even Youngkin now that he's their new shiny penny).  When they have evey lever of government at once, they'll go hog wild.  The big question: will average Americans, who are decidedly not Trumpist types, go along or fight back?  Then AGW, which they ignore today as they have in the past, will rear it's ugly head in earnest.  How that plays out is still TBD, but I don't see it getting adequate traction until late 2030s at the earlist.  Then the 2040s, and perhaps American Revoution 2.0 -- too far away to know if or how that plays.

[pbrower2a]

[pbrower2a]

The graph:



Treatment of COVID-19 cases, so far as I can tell, seems to not be getting more effective. So far the death rate is 1.61%. An estimated 45 million people have gotten known infections by COVID-19, The best way to deal with COVID-19 is prevention, which is still the right way to deal with such an old scourge as smallpox.

[Eric the Green]

(11-05-2021, 08:47 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-04-2021, 12:44 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(11-04-2021, 11:25 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-03-2021, 07:45 PM)Eric the Green Wrote: It's hard to say about this 4T. Usually it looks bad while we are in it. As you know, I don't see any basis for hope for the next 2T, if this 4T fails. Failed societies don't have 2Ts, unless rescued by other societies during their 4T. If our 4T fails, it is because our nation has become different from that of the past 500 years; more evil, more ignorant, more deceived, more stubborn, more complacent, more decadent, more greedy, more unmanagable by any human agency. So if that is the case about our current 4T society, then the 2T will just be further chaos and also end badly. It could be argued that our previous 2T ended more badly too than previous ones. If a nation is just in decline, then it doesn't really matter which turning it is in. It will just decline faster, or slower, depending on which turning it is in.

Here we disagree.  We're not a lot different from the nation we were at our founding. We still have the same contending cultures and suffer the same conflicts -- just moreso.  At some pont, we needed to renegotiate the contract we signed in the 1780s, and either split or develope a new commonality.  Being a minority-ruled nation isn't viable, but that's where we are and where we're going for now.  As far as being a failure and falling into a bottomless hole, I don't think we'll fail that way.  Instead, we'll slowly fall apart at the seams, and AGW will finally push us to stand and deliver, or divide and go our separate ways.

Eric Wrote:Even this is hard to believe, given how evil our society has always been. But in our saeculum it has reached its peak of power and prosperity, and so decline in every way, which has already well begun, may be the only thing we can expect from now on. Yet, as I said, with 7 or 8 years left to run for SURE, we can't know just how our 4T will turn out. Whatever victory is achieved, if it happens, (and a blue victory is the only outcome that's a victory), it will be partial, not perfect, and only then we can expect further change and progress in the next 2T, with a renewed spiritual discovery or revival along with it that is mostly missing today, but has always happened in past 2Ts.

Here we do agree.  I doubt we'll get our act together in the next few years, but we won't have a Kumbaya 1T either.  Those ~20 years of messiness will be similar to the messiness following the ACW.  That time we went backwards.  I hope the opposite will be true this time, because AGW isn't playing games.

Even with AGW, it's hard to be optimistic given such election results as Nov.2, 2021. The people don't seem to vote based on real concerns, but on prejudice slogans like CRT and momentary concerns like high gas prices. But, as I've said, the 4T often looks bleak while we are in it, and we have faced real crises in the past and won, so if we are the same nation, then that could be a basis for some hope that we may stumble into victory in spite of ourselves.

No one fights harder than a cornered animal.  The GOP is pulling out all the stops; the Lee Atwater playbook is open to every page at once.  They see a tiny window to win and win for good (at least they see it that way).  Worse case scenarion: they actually succeed in electing a Trump 2.0 in 2024 (probably DeSantis or even Youngkin now that he's their new shiny penny).  When they have every lever of government at once, they'll go hog wild.  The big question: will average Americans, who are decidedly not Trumpist types, go along or fight back?  Then AGW, which they ignore today as they have in the past, will rear it's ugly head in earnest.  How that plays out is still TBD, but I don't see it getting adequate traction until late 2030s at the earlist.  Then the 2040s, and perhaps American Revoution 2.0 -- too far away to know if or how that plays.

Of course the climate crisis needs to get adequate traction NOW, certainly during our 4T, and NOT in a 1T (the 2030s), since in first turnings NOTHING get's any traction, or else the tipping points turn and hothouse Earth cannot be turned back and we are toast. No, this decade is it for us. It's now or never!

The GOP may be able to impose its dictatorship, like the Nazis imposed the last gasp of racist nationalism that had been cornered and had been building up for a century. If it does win in 2024 or anytime this decade, the climate crisis will be impossible to contain, and we are toast.

The horoscope scores can't be ignored when it comes to which candidates might win. They measure the typical response of Americans to the presidential candidates' style, personality and communication effectiveness. Youngkin's score is 7-19; he will be a disaster as governor and quickly fade. McAuliffe's status could then rise again, and he has 10-3. De Santis has a mediocre score (12-10). He (or any Republican) will likely win if Harris (3-17) is ever nominated, but otherwise DeSantis is an unlikely winner. Candidates like DeSantis can win only if the Democrats pick a likely loser like Harris. The biggest Republican threats are Tim Scott (17-7), Spencer Cox (17-4), Tom Cotton (17-9?), Larry Elder (14-2), Marco Rubio (13-7) and Dan Crenshaw (15-7). Some of these have better status for running than others, and you need some status as well as a good score. Greg Abbott has the status and a pretty good score (12-7). In the longer term, don't count out Ivanka Trump (17-0). And I don't count out The Donald (9-4) either.

The Democrats have fewer possibilities. Our best hope is for Joe Biden (16-6) to run again and live out his full 2 terms. Mitch Landrieu (19-2) is the best, but doesn't seem inclined. Susan Rice (14-7) and Sherrod Brown (19-9) are long-shots. Besides these and McAuliffe I don't see any others on the horizon right now. So likely, Joe will have to regain his popularity and be not only more than a stand in, but a transformational leader. The times can make the leader. Basically, the times will have to make Biden such a leader, or our human journey is over.

I don't assert that the scores are perfect, and they will be adjusted a little or somewhat based on who wins and who loses in the future. The scores are almost-entirely empirical-based, using the planetary relationships (aspects) in the charts of all the viable presidential candidates in history.

http://philosopherswheel.com/presidentia...dates.html

[pbrower2a]

[pbrower2a]

Still true about drugs, but also about Trumpism now:
 

[Eric the Green]

Thanks for the posts, brower.

[pbrower2a]

[Eric the Green]

(11-03-2021, 10:05 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-02-2021, 12:21 PM)Eric the Green Wrote:

(11-02-2021, 10:26 AM)David Horn Wrote:

(11-02-2021, 04:17 AM)Eric the Green Wrote: Wow, only 72% of USA Americans have even received one dose. And people wonder why the pandemic continues?

This fits with a prior comment I made on another thread.  Dems need to quit wimping out and put vaccine mandates in place that have real teeth, then enforce them to the letter.  There will be howls until they actually work, then the howlers will either shut-up or move on to another whine.  Being weak is a guarantee of failiure, and the Dems have had failure imprinted on their DNA for decades.  Time to grow a spine!

Yes indeed. DeBlazio is showing spine on this, although not so much on some other things.

It may be that Dems are simply incapable of being authoritarian enough when needed to prevent disasters, allowing the Reps to run the board.  It's a large part of my contention that the 4T won't be successful, making the next 2T into a barnburner.  It's not my preference, but it seems to be how the game is going.

Again, if our 4T is unsuccessful, for the first time in Anglo-American history, then the 2T will be a barnburner indeed, and the burning barn will be the US of A nation itself as its inevitable decline speeds up.

The Democrats must indeed be more coercive against those aspects of our society which are not in the peoples' interest, such as outsourcing, low taxes, lax environmental and worker regulations; etc. We face a choice in this 4T. Ditch neoliberalism (hopefully forever more), or we fail as a nation. It's on the ballot. I don't know if the people will choose right. It looks bad now for 2022, at least. But unless we DO, there is no further hope for our country, OR for our world. We are all toast. 

It's just as if the Democrats in 1941 were not to have been "authoritarian" enough to mobilize the nation and defeat the Nazis and fascists, or else just let THEM "run the board." Thank God they were, then. But now, "this generation has a rendezvous with destiny". The Republicans are against a new FDR, just as they were against the old one. It's our choice now, and we must realize it. We let today's Nazis "run the board", or else we reclaim our nation from them.

[Eric the Green]

Updated figures in Santa Clara County are based on updated population figures. The percentage of fully vaccinated people over 12 has been increased to over 89.8%. Core boomers have been given credit for being all fully vaccinated. I don't know how accurate it all is, but the Gen Z teenagers seem to have gotten vaccinated quickly and are almost done. Population figures now include babies who have not been vaccinated, and children 5-11 who have just started to be. Booster shots seem poised to accelerate rapidly as CA has already approved the booster shot for all adults and the CDC will within days. The figures for ethnic groups seem distorted by the large number who when vaccinated have listed themselves as other or unknown, and these categories could include many white hispanics and other hispanics, which likely inflates the unvaccinated numbers of listed whites, hispanics and people of multi-race. Some unvaccinated Asians are listed now where there were none before, and probably many of them are babies, as Asians have surpassed whites in the population of Santa Clara County.
https://covid19.sccgov.org/dashboard-vaccinations

[pbrower2a]

Old stuff, but statistically relevant:




Source: Centers for Disease Control.

Just look at the differentials:

18-29      0.75
30-49      5.33
50-64    21.54
65-79    72.21
80 plus  77.00

Respiratory infections that elementary students can treat as a mini-vacation from school kill people with compromised immune systems, so even with all appropriate protections someone like the late Colin Powell (who also had Parkinsonism and myeloma, either of which singly would have killed him with or without COVID-19) can have it on his death certificate. This said, if the most effective way to avoid COVID-19 were to become a heavy smoker, then I would get myself some smokes. 

COVID-19 is not a trivial matter for people over 65, so keep using masks -- please!

[pbrower2a]