The Obama = Roosevelt/Taft (1904-1912) cycle match is one of the options I considered. Here is how that looks:
Year Event Year Event
1912 Wilson wins 2016 Clinton wins
1919 Red Summer 2019 BLM explodes in riots across the nation
1919-20 Red Scare 2017-20 Terror paranoia
1918 Sedition Act 2018 Law enabling American citizens to be sent to Gitmo
1919-20 9 terror attacks 2018-20 ISIS inspired terror attacks
1920 unrest peak 2020 unrest peak
1920 Harding wins 2020 Trump-style Republican wins
1921-4 Immigration red. 2021-4 Immigration reduced.
1930 Tariiff boosted 2021 Free trade abandoned
1929 Depression 2026 Depression
1932 Dem landslide 2028 Dem Landslide
1930 End of Sec Cycle 2030 End of Sec cycle
Looks beguiling, with a fair number of parallels that mostly make some sense. For example 1919 was a time of racial unrest, I could see that happening in the next four years. 1918-20 was a time of terrorism and terror paranoia, I can see that today. Immigration and trade got shut down over 1921-30. I can see that happening today also. But then this is Karl Rove's idea and he is an idiot, so there is that. Also 1896 was a critical election and 2000 sure as hell was not. On the other hand, Iraq sure looks like Philippines. And Bush looks like a Republican Progressive (No Child Left behind/Medicare drug benefit). Obama does not fit in with Taft though. Obama is more consequential, more like Wilson when we got Fed Reserve (= Dodd-Frank) Income Tax (=Obama care) Woman's Suffrage (=gay marriage). Note: this scenario is based entirely on the secular cycle, it ignores the the S&H dynamics. I don't think this is valid.
The scenario below is mostly based on the saeculum and K-cycle with only a minor input from the secular cycle.
There is the possibility that Trump wins. This would make 2016=1920. Obama now is Wilson, Sanders is Eugene Debs (his hero). Clinton is the hapless Democrat (Davis I think). Trump then comes in and curtails immigration and free trade, just like last time. The market crashes during his first term and we get a panic. Trump goes along with what Congress wants and we get a depression (this is the 1920-21 depression in secular time, but the 1929-33 depression in saecular time).
1932 happens in 2020. Elizabeth Warren wins in a landslide and implements the Depression fix in her first term (even Larry Summers(!) is starting to see what is necessary--it is that obvious). The 4T ends in 2024, 16 years after the the start of K-winter (last cycle the 4T ended 17 years after). The saeculum then ends in 2024 at 78 years in length, right on the money.
If Trump wins it would seem that 2008 is not a critical election, as I think it is But if we apply Marc Lamb's 40-year rule, then Obama =Nixon, Trump = Carter and Warren = Reagan. She would serve two terms and if she is followed by a Democrat=Bush then the analogy works. In this case 2008 would be critical in the same way 1968 is and 2020 would be critical in the way 1980 is. Both occur in a social moment turnings like 1968/1980 and the critical election problem is solved.
I really love this scenario. everything fits...But I don't think Trump is going to win.
If I assume a Clinton victory it is really a mess. That is why I think she will win.* But if folks like Kinser manage to elect Trump, well I will then wait for the market to reach my targets and then buy--I could end up doing very well.
This is the strongest reason for believing that it will not work out this way, my bad luck is legendary.
*Also I want her to win. I am not a misanthrope.
Year Event Year Event
1912 Wilson wins 2016 Clinton wins
1919 Red Summer 2019 BLM explodes in riots across the nation
1919-20 Red Scare 2017-20 Terror paranoia
1918 Sedition Act 2018 Law enabling American citizens to be sent to Gitmo
1919-20 9 terror attacks 2018-20 ISIS inspired terror attacks
1920 unrest peak 2020 unrest peak
1920 Harding wins 2020 Trump-style Republican wins
1921-4 Immigration red. 2021-4 Immigration reduced.
1930 Tariiff boosted 2021 Free trade abandoned
1929 Depression 2026 Depression
1932 Dem landslide 2028 Dem Landslide
1930 End of Sec Cycle 2030 End of Sec cycle
Looks beguiling, with a fair number of parallels that mostly make some sense. For example 1919 was a time of racial unrest, I could see that happening in the next four years. 1918-20 was a time of terrorism and terror paranoia, I can see that today. Immigration and trade got shut down over 1921-30. I can see that happening today also. But then this is Karl Rove's idea and he is an idiot, so there is that. Also 1896 was a critical election and 2000 sure as hell was not. On the other hand, Iraq sure looks like Philippines. And Bush looks like a Republican Progressive (No Child Left behind/Medicare drug benefit). Obama does not fit in with Taft though. Obama is more consequential, more like Wilson when we got Fed Reserve (= Dodd-Frank) Income Tax (=Obama care) Woman's Suffrage (=gay marriage). Note: this scenario is based entirely on the secular cycle, it ignores the the S&H dynamics. I don't think this is valid.
The scenario below is mostly based on the saeculum and K-cycle with only a minor input from the secular cycle.
There is the possibility that Trump wins. This would make 2016=1920. Obama now is Wilson, Sanders is Eugene Debs (his hero). Clinton is the hapless Democrat (Davis I think). Trump then comes in and curtails immigration and free trade, just like last time. The market crashes during his first term and we get a panic. Trump goes along with what Congress wants and we get a depression (this is the 1920-21 depression in secular time, but the 1929-33 depression in saecular time).
1932 happens in 2020. Elizabeth Warren wins in a landslide and implements the Depression fix in her first term (even Larry Summers(!) is starting to see what is necessary--it is that obvious). The 4T ends in 2024, 16 years after the the start of K-winter (last cycle the 4T ended 17 years after). The saeculum then ends in 2024 at 78 years in length, right on the money.
If Trump wins it would seem that 2008 is not a critical election, as I think it is But if we apply Marc Lamb's 40-year rule, then Obama =Nixon, Trump = Carter and Warren = Reagan. She would serve two terms and if she is followed by a Democrat=Bush then the analogy works. In this case 2008 would be critical in the same way 1968 is and 2020 would be critical in the way 1980 is. Both occur in a social moment turnings like 1968/1980 and the critical election problem is solved.
I really love this scenario. everything fits...But I don't think Trump is going to win.
If I assume a Clinton victory it is really a mess. That is why I think she will win.* But if folks like Kinser manage to elect Trump, well I will then wait for the market to reach my targets and then buy--I could end up doing very well.
This is the strongest reason for believing that it will not work out this way, my bad luck is legendary.*Also I want her to win. I am not a misanthrope.