I have gone over most of the book. Much of it is the same as the manuscript I read. Is anyone going to get this book and read it? If so I would be most interested in discussing it.
Turchin provides several math models for how periods of falling inequality and relative political calm (i.e. 1930-1980) transform into periods of rising inequality and (eventually) high levels of sociopolitical instability. Less covered is how the reverse transition occurs--which is the one in which I am interested. Turchin appears to use his idea that fear of the outsider causes those within a group (in this case elites) to unify. The fear of other invoked is fear of foreign (immigrant) radical ideologies/terrorism, which were causing American workers to act out. By restricting immigration, terrorism and radical ideologies could be suppressed, and calm restored. Restricting immigration would likely result in higher wages, to the detriment of elites, but the unity produced by fear of the other made it possible for elites to accept the detrimental effects (i.e. take one for the team).
I think highly of this concept of an explanation for how large-scale cooperative behavior evolved. I do not think it applies to early 20th century America. Right now I am finishing up a modification to Turchin's analysis. I think the motivation for elites to accept the reduction in wealth and status that is a consequence of inequality reversal is that they feared a total loss of wealth and status--not a threat of revolutionary situation.
I propose that a problem arose in which capital stopped producing as much output as before. A reduced efficacy of capital means that your capital (wealth) has become fundamentally worth less than it used to be, but this fact will be hidden because the capital markets will continue to value your capital at is old value. Eventually the market will notice its mistake and adjust (e.g. 1929-32). Many capitalists--perhaps you--will be ruined. Even those who manage OK will be shaken, and willing to accept wealth-limiting policies that just a short time ago would be completely out of the question.
I suspect that Turchin's concept will prove to be more useful in explaining inequality trend reversals in Europe rather than the US.
Turchin provides several math models for how periods of falling inequality and relative political calm (i.e. 1930-1980) transform into periods of rising inequality and (eventually) high levels of sociopolitical instability. Less covered is how the reverse transition occurs--which is the one in which I am interested. Turchin appears to use his idea that fear of the outsider causes those within a group (in this case elites) to unify. The fear of other invoked is fear of foreign (immigrant) radical ideologies/terrorism, which were causing American workers to act out. By restricting immigration, terrorism and radical ideologies could be suppressed, and calm restored. Restricting immigration would likely result in higher wages, to the detriment of elites, but the unity produced by fear of the other made it possible for elites to accept the detrimental effects (i.e. take one for the team).
I think highly of this concept of an explanation for how large-scale cooperative behavior evolved. I do not think it applies to early 20th century America. Right now I am finishing up a modification to Turchin's analysis. I think the motivation for elites to accept the reduction in wealth and status that is a consequence of inequality reversal is that they feared a total loss of wealth and status--not a threat of revolutionary situation.
I propose that a problem arose in which capital stopped producing as much output as before. A reduced efficacy of capital means that your capital (wealth) has become fundamentally worth less than it used to be, but this fact will be hidden because the capital markets will continue to value your capital at is old value. Eventually the market will notice its mistake and adjust (e.g. 1929-32). Many capitalists--perhaps you--will be ruined. Even those who manage OK will be shaken, and willing to accept wealth-limiting policies that just a short time ago would be completely out of the question.
I suspect that Turchin's concept will prove to be more useful in explaining inequality trend reversals in Europe rather than the US.