(10-22-2016, 02:21 AM)Einzige Wrote: On the subject of a Regeneracy, it's probably important to bear in mind that, if there's something to the Megacycle theory and we're in the closing years of a Megaunraveling (with 1789-1865/76 as a Megahigh and 1865/76-1945 as a Megaawakening), there may not be a big Regeneracy this time. The Unraveling exists in opposite and inverted proportion to the High, at a time of "falling demand for social order". My bet is that the Crises of Megaunravelings see the weakest Regeneracies and the Crises of Megaawakenings the strongest Regeneracies.
Doesn't mean there won't be one, but that it may be so subtle that we'll be arguing about whether it actually happened for a long time. Hell, it may have already happened.
The most stable Highs are in a Megaunraveling (1945-64), the least stable Highs are in a Megacrisis (starting in the late 2020s or early 2030s), the most intense Awakenings are in a Megacrisis (the 2040s?), the least intense Awakenings are in a Megaawakening (~1896-~1912), the most stable Unravelings are in a Megaawakening (1912 or thereabouts to 1929), the least stable Unravelings are in a Megahigh (the late 1840s and 1850s), the most intense Crises are in a Megahigh (the Civil War), and the least intense Crises are, ironically, in a Megacrisis (by which time social cohesion will be through the roof owing to the turmoils of prior decades - think of the genteel warfare of the Revolutionary and Napoleonic eras) and Megaunraveling (does the current era seem really existentially urgent in an immediate sense?).
I think the regeneracy is just late this time around, and I think the next 4 years will be some of our roughest in the nation's history. I think a lot of social, racial, and political tension has to build and be released before we have a civic regeneracy in the US. I think right-wing militia style domestic terrorism might intensify after a Trump defeat, and I think another economic crisis is right around the corner. I think it will be very recognizable when it happens, I think it will happen in the early 2020s but I a lot of bad things are going to happen before then.
As for the Megacycle theory I personally don't like it that much because it just adds on more unnecessary/complicated stuff to an already highly speculative theory of history. You say we have been in a Megaunraveling since 1945 but this period for the US is the epitome of a high, but I guess since The American Revolution founded the republic the saeculum after it thrived in it's civic shadow, like a post-crisis era.
The most stable high does seem to be the 1946-1964 era but the 1890s era was one of our most turbulent awakenings, even compared to "The Sixties". I mean imagine all the riots and protests of the Vietnam Era(of course the turmoil back then centered around labor radicalism)with a severe economic depression at the same time.
The 1984-2008 era imo was the most "stable" Third Turning by far, There was extreme turmoil and instability especially right after World War 1 that nearly catalyzed into a Fourth Turning, things did calm down quickly after around 1921 though.
How intense do you think the awakening of the late 2040s and 2050s will be?