11-12-2016, 04:22 PM
(This post was last modified: 11-12-2016, 04:23 PM by Warren Dew.)
(11-12-2016, 07:29 AM)Marypoza Wrote:(11-11-2016, 11:32 PM)disasterzone Wrote:(11-11-2016, 10:50 PM)Marypoza Wrote: -- maybe, like l said earlier, we'll have to see how this rolls.
Were 1T attitudes common in 1937 or 1938?
If our 4T started in 08, we're in the equivalent of 1937, about to be 1938.
-- l don't go back that far so l couldn't say, but I believe there was a recession in the middle of the Depression around that time. Economists claim another recession is due to hit in a couple yrs. otoh, the TPP is now DEAD ( boo-yeah!) & the Donald wants to reintroduce tariffs (which the 1930 Congress enacted in 1930) & possibly bring back Glass-Steagle so that may save jobs & ward off a recession.That may, in turn, morph into a 1T, to be honest l dunno
Yes, 1937 was the second dip.
Agreed that the TPP, which had all sorts of baggage and was not really a free trade deal, is better off dead. Glass-Steagall might be good to bring back.
Tariffs, not so much. The truth is, loss of jobs was less due to offshoring than it was to automation. Those jobs are not coming back. Tariffs would just deprive the working class consumer of the few luxuries she can presently afford.
The jobs that could come back to working class citizens are those that are the upper end of what's presently being done by illegal immigrants - slaughterhouse jobs, for example. Half a generational cycle ago, those jobs paid wages on which one could raise a family, but the wages for them have dropped by half due to an influx of labor that is less mobile due to lack of legal work credentials and thus can be hired at below market rates.
Increases in the ratio of wages to return on capital may be insufficient in itself to bring around the first turning, though. Empirically, a war is required.