11-20-2016, 10:31 AM
(11-20-2016, 07:18 AM)Mikebert Wrote:(11-18-2016, 02:32 PM)Warren Dew Wrote:(11-18-2016, 12:42 PM)Mikebert Wrote: I don't understand this thread title. Most assume the 4T started in 2008, so we are 8 years in. The nominal length for turnings is 22 years and the last one lasted 24, so lets use 22. This forecasts the start of the 1T around 2030. Isn't a little early to be talking about the 1T?
The mood for the first turning is set in the preceding fourth turning. By the time the first turning rolls around, it's too late for it to change. Thus, discussion now is apropos.
If so, then why didn't S&H pick up the mood of the 4T in Generations?
Generations was written in 1990, long before the fourth turning. That the mood of the first turning is set by the preceding fourth turning does not mean that the mood of the fourth turning is set by the preceding third turning.
That said, they did pick up the mood to a large extent. They correctly predicted the partisanship between an increasing number of groups - notice how we've got at least five clear politiical factions now - correctly predicted hostility toward existing institutions, correctly predicted antiimmigrant sentiments, etc.